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Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: nemo on June 11, 2011, 11:02:49 PM



Title: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: nemo on June 11, 2011, 11:02:49 PM
I know it was over valued, and this is a correction. But this screen shot was taken by a redditor (severedbrain).

https://i.imgur.com/CEBCv.png

They've since been deleted from his tweets. My guess is he's trying to double or even tripple up those bitcoin donations he received for releasing PS3's source code.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: onesalt on June 11, 2011, 11:04:22 PM
Nope, Somethingawful.com (go sign up an account there and register your displeasure) trolled the bitcoin market enough to cause a market panic. In conclusion, fuck the internet.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: bcpokey on June 11, 2011, 11:06:10 PM
If the users of bitcoin are getting their financial advices from somethingawful and some guy named Lulzsec, and that's why bitcoin dies, then it deserved to die. No one person is to blame unless they are putting a gun to peoples heads. Sheep are to blame for sheep behavior.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: nemo on June 11, 2011, 11:10:02 PM
I don't get advice from them. But their impact does has an affect on what I choose to do, so I find it relevant to know if this panic is organic or not.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Maxxx on June 11, 2011, 11:11:00 PM
Nope, Somethingawful.com (go sign up an account there and register your displeasure) trolled the bitcoin market enough to cause a market panic. In conclusion, fuck the internet.

No they didn't.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: onesalt on June 11, 2011, 11:11:48 PM
If the users of bitcoin are getting their financial advices from somethingawful and some guy named Lulzsec, and that's why bitcoin dies, then it deserved to die. No one person is to blame unless they are putting a gun to peoples heads. Sheep are to blame for sheep behavior.

So what you're saying is that anyone who believes in bitcoins are sheep for following what could potentially be a perfect currency?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Hekuro on June 11, 2011, 11:28:57 PM
It seems so...:
 http://twitter.com/LulzSec/status/79689574313492480


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hawks5999 on June 11, 2011, 11:41:13 PM
It seems so...:
 http://twitter.com/LulzSec/status/79689574313492480

So this basically means they did loopback sales (for lack of a better term) of 17,000 coins to crush the market?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Drone_Fragger on June 11, 2011, 11:42:33 PM
Nope! it was me. Sorry folks:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/hwnnq/somethingawful_post_that_started_the_panic/

Cya later shitlords.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hawks5999 on June 11, 2011, 11:48:44 PM
Nope! it was me. Sorry folks:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/hwnnq/somethingawful_post_that_started_the_panic/

Cya later shitlords.

WTFever. Trolls are posting SELL SELL SELL all the time.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hoo2jalu on June 11, 2011, 11:51:33 PM
... So this basically means they did loopback sales (for lack of a better term) of 17,000 coins to crush the market?

Used to be you could crush supply/demand curve across multiple exchangers for much less... They picked the perfect day, as volume always depressed over weekend.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: gigitrix on June 11, 2011, 11:52:02 PM
Or, you know, could just be a market correction due a rapid and unsustainable growth, exacerbated by those who wish to exploit it for personal gain?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: onesalt on June 11, 2011, 11:53:04 PM
Or, you know, could just be a market correction due a rapid and unsustainable growth, exacerbated by those who wish to exploit it for personal gain?

So what you're saying is that it was, infact, a bubble?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hawks5999 on June 11, 2011, 11:53:12 PM
... So this basically means they did loopback sales (for lack of a better term) of 17,000 coins to crush the market?

Used to be you could crush supply/demand curve across multiple exchangers for much less... They picked the perfect day, as volume always depressed over weekend.

So in the end, Mt. Gox had a good day on fees and everyone who BTFD will have a good day come Monday.

Thanks.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: silversurfer on June 11, 2011, 11:54:12 PM
Whats the significance of this block they linked?  I don't get that part...

http://blockexplorer.com/block/00000000000007d6d8c9ccd1472df92b69ae8bf0d1a06f6f42df8d580a080f0e


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Drone_Fragger on June 11, 2011, 11:57:24 PM
Whats the significance of this block they linked?  I don't get that part...

http://blockexplorer.com/block/00000000000007d6d8c9ccd1472df92b69ae8bf0d1a06f6f42df8d580a080f0e

You don't get how cashing out 50x340 bitcoins at once in 50 accounts to bypass transaction account limits to withdraw 340,000 dollars at once and more other the next few days could possibly crash the bitcoin market?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: silversurfer on June 12, 2011, 12:01:04 AM
50x340 going from where to where?  What account limits?  What 340k?  Sorry you made me more confused now. 


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: nemo on June 12, 2011, 12:03:43 AM
MtGox doesn't let you take out more than $1000 a day or $10000 a month. So 1 guy made himself look like a ton of guys who rushed to sell. Bundle that up with trolls spamming forums with SELL SELL SELL.

Is that what it was?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: silversurfer on June 12, 2011, 12:05:25 AM
MtGox doesn't let you take out more than $1000 a day or $10000 a month. So 1 guy made himself look like a ton of guys who rushed to sell. Bundle that up with trolls spamming forums with SELL SELL SELL and there you have it.

What does that 17000 bitcoin deal have to do with Mt. Gox $1000/day limit?  There's a limit to how many bitcoins you can withdraw, not just how much USD you can withdraw?  What?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hoo2jalu on June 12, 2011, 12:07:20 AM
MtGox doesn't let you take out more than $1000 a day or $10000 a month. So 1 guy made himself look like a ton of guys who rushed to sell.

If you want pretty graph pull up market volume chart, like http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html (http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html) , then click on 10day range or so.

Observe the giant red spike that is negative sales flood and volume of sales total. See how this drastically alters the supply/demand curve across multiple exchangers. (Note that you could spike high just as easy with same approach.)

Lots of you charting the bitcoin seas with your eyes closed. Not a good idea when the LulzBoat is prowling...

;P


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: vuce on June 12, 2011, 12:10:11 AM
MtGox doesn't let you take out more than $1000 a day or $10000 a month. So 1 guy made himself look like a ton of guys who rushed to sell. Bundle that up with trolls spamming forums with SELL SELL SELL.

Is that what it was?
I'm certain those blocks of 50 coins were mined, and this transaction was one of the early adopters transfering his bankroll to mtgox (there is no limit for deposits, afaik?).


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: gigitrix on June 12, 2011, 12:10:18 AM
Or, you know, could just be a market correction due a rapid and unsustainable growth, exacerbated by those who wish to exploit it for personal gain?

So what you're saying is that it was, infact, a bubble?

I'm saying the calls of "bubble bursting" are having an inverted bubble effect, and when it "bursts" we'll start to move back towards the same growth trends we've seen before. Look at this:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=1609&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=90&i=Hourly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

For a healthy dose on perspective.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: riX on June 12, 2011, 12:11:05 AM
There's a limit fow withdrawing 1000 usd and the equivalent amount of bitcoins..

Some of those transactions of 50 btc originated from generation blocks. Unless mtgox is mining that block probably didn't have anything to do with mtgox withdrawal, just some pool or solo miner moving bitcoins around.

Also, if they had come from mtgox, they obviously would have come from _buying_ bitcoins, not selling them off.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Basiley on June 12, 2011, 12:11:24 AM
did anyone heard about LulzSec week before ?
i mean, how do you sure, they are not feds undercover ?
or exist at all ?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hoo2jalu on June 12, 2011, 12:12:37 AM
...
I'm certain those blocks of 50 coins were mined, and this transaction was one of the early adopters transfering his bankroll to mtgox.

You don't know how long these were sitting in a dark pool or other reserve before changing hands to someone who actually "withdrew" them from the dark pool / exchanger.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: silversurfer on June 12, 2011, 12:14:37 AM
There's a limit fow withdrawing 1000 usd and the equivalent amount of bitcoins..


Not so sure about the 'equivalent amount of bitcoins' part...  I think you can withdraw any amount of bitcoins from mtgox, no?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: vuce on June 12, 2011, 12:15:05 AM
...
I'm certain those blocks of 50 coins were mined, and this transaction was one of the early adopters transfering his bankroll to mtgox.

You don't know how long these were sitting in a dark pool or other reserve before changing hands to someone who actually "withdrew" them from the dark pool / exchanger.
I don't understand what you're trying to say. Once funds are on mtgox there wouldn't be a transaction like that.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: xf2_org on June 12, 2011, 12:17:35 AM
You don't get how cashing out 50x340 bitcoins at once in 50 accounts to bypass transaction account limits to withdraw 340,000 dollars at once and more other the next few days could possibly crash the bitcoin market?

Ok, newbies, calm down.

Deep breath.

Those coins in the LulzSec tweet have not been spent (ie. not sent to mtgox etc.).  The coins have not been sold, therefore those sales did not crash the market.

Either they are taking credit for someone else's coin transfer, or they hacked into a miner and stole their wallet.



Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: enmaku on June 12, 2011, 12:18:43 AM
So with the current status of bitcoin being a relatively small market with only one real exchange having any reasonable levels of adoption, is it possible for someone with sufficient bankroll in both USD/BTC to sell low to themselves on separate account with sufficient volume (esp. on the weekend) to actually cause a major drop in price? You'd lose a bit of cash to people with already-existing lowball bids but if you knew that the cause of the depression was artificial, you could buy quite low and then hold until the market rebounded, perhaps to repeat the process again?

Is there any defense at present against such an attack? Do we need to be just as worried about those controlling substantial portions of the market volume as we are concerned with deepbit's potential 51% issue? If this works, wouldn't the opposite work too? Liquidate a large portion of your BTC to yourself at grossly inflated prices to drive market value up then sell to legitimate investors at the peak?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Man From The Future on June 12, 2011, 12:19:21 AM
Or, you know, could just be a market correction due a rapid and unsustainable growth, exacerbated by those who wish to exploit it for personal gain?

So what you're saying is that it was, infact, a bubble?
Now we're going to end up with a comic... :(


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: enmaku on June 12, 2011, 12:21:00 AM
So with the current status of bitcoin being a relatively small market with only one real exchange having any reasonable levels of adoption, is it possible for someone with sufficient bankroll in both USD/BTC to sell low to themselves on separate account with sufficient volume (esp. on the weekend) to actually cause a major drop in price? You'd lose a bit of cash to people with already-existing lowball bids but if you knew that the cause of the depression was artificial, you could buy quite low and then hold until the market rebounded, perhaps to repeat the process again?

Is there any defense at present against such an attack? Do we need to be just as worried about those controlling substantial portions of the market volume as we are concerned with deepbit's potential 51% issue? If this works, wouldn't the opposite work too? Liquidate a large portion of your BTC to yourself at grossly inflated prices to drive market value up then sell to legitimate investors at the peak?

Which is not to say that this is what happened, but the fact that some seem to think it could be makes me wonder if it's possible. If so, shouldn't we be coming up with some method of defending against it?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: vuce on June 12, 2011, 12:23:26 AM
Those coins in the LulzSec tweet have not been spent (ie. not sent to mtgox etc.).
ah, yes. How stupid of me to miss that  :-[


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Dansker on June 12, 2011, 12:25:33 AM
You don't get how cashing out 50x340 bitcoins at once in 50 accounts to bypass transaction account limits to withdraw 340,000 dollars at once and more other the next few days could possibly crash the bitcoin market?

Ok, newbies, calm down.

Deep breath.

Those coins in the LulzSec tweet have not been spent (ie. not sent to mtgox etc.).  The coins have not been sold, therefore those sales did not crash the market.

Either they are taking credit for someone else's coin transfer, or they hacked into a miner and stole their wallet.



First post making sense!


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hoo2jalu on June 12, 2011, 12:30:02 AM
...
I don't understand what you're trying to say. Once funds are on mtgox there wouldn't be a transaction like that.

You sell coins to precipitate a drop. You buy more back at bottom after inciting excess liquidity. You export your winnings across all accounts - meaning large withdraw from dark pool. Thus many old legitimate coins from virgin blocks into a single booty account outside exchanger(s).

LulzSec got the booty! (watch it rise to new highs over coming week, especially with difficulty hitting new high...)


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: onesalt on June 12, 2011, 12:34:28 AM
did anyone heard about LulzSec week before ?
i mean, how do you sure, they are not feds undercover ?
or exist at all ?

It's rampant tinfoil hat paranoia about how the government is apparantly out to get you which results in stupid shit like this occuring you know, all it does is make supporters of bitcoin look like anti-establishment anarchist nutjobs.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: riX on June 12, 2011, 12:38:46 AM
You sell coins to precipitate a drop. You buy more back at bottom after inciting excess liquidity. You export your winnings across all accounts - meaning large withdraw from dark pool. Thus many old legitimate coins from virgin blocks into a single booty account outside exchanger(s).

LulzSec got the booty! (watch it rise to new highs over coming week, especially with difficulty hitting new high...)

Yeah, probably, so why don't everyone with more than a few k of bitcoins do that all the time? Morals?

You also have to learn more about dark pools and how mtgox works.

Most likely the transactions lulzsec linked to has nothing to do with them at all.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hoo2jalu on June 12, 2011, 12:42:27 AM
...
Yeah, probably, so why don't everyone with more than a few k of bitcoins do that all the time? Morals?

You have to automate all the code to exchange and cash out, and use many endpoints while remaining anonymous (enough) to bypass volume restrictions at exchangers and simulate enough activity to be effective manipulating the market.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Basiley on June 12, 2011, 12:45:21 AM
did anyone heard about LulzSec week before ?
i mean, how do you sure, they are not feds undercover ?
or exist at all ?

It's rampant tinfoil hat paranoia about how the government is apparantly out to get you which results in stupid shit like this occuring you know, all it does is make supporters of bitcoin look like anti-establishment anarchist nutjobs.
fueling other people "paranoia", by such obscure talks, instead of answering something context/subj-relevant isn't help you become/stay informative/interesting/meaningful/trusted.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: EconomicOracle on June 12, 2011, 12:46:15 AM

Your username is so incorrect it's leaving me screaming and tearing up in my room ARGH
Bitcoin has been alive and living for MONTH! It is not dying. It cannot crash or be killed. The government cannot touch it so it is invincible. Why can't you understand this! It's as real as you and me. If you do not believe in BTC then you are POND SCUM!


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: enmaku on June 12, 2011, 01:00:42 AM
Or, you know, could just be a market correction due a rapid and unsustainable growth, exacerbated by those who wish to exploit it for personal gain?

So what you're saying is that it was, infact, a bubble?
The word bubble is politically incorrect on the Bitcoin.org forums. So yes, it was a bubble.

It's only politically incorrect here because there are a lot of room-temperature-IQ speculators who don't seem to comprehend that "a bubble" is not the same as "THE bubble" - bubbles happen in other markets all the time, but because those of us who aren't day traders don't hear about bubbles unless they destroy a market we assume the worst when we hear the term. It seems that what occurred recently was, in fact, a bubble but that doesn't necessarily mean it's THE bubble that everyone fears will kill the market.

People need to understand that bitcoin isn't really any different than any other commodity. Commodities have only the value we ascribe to them. We are trading so many post-scarcity products (music, movies, pornography) at such ludicrous markups daily that it occurs to me that it should be OBVIOUS that so much in this world has only the value we ascribe to things with no inherent value.

Bitcoin bubble theorists need to both learn some basic economics and perhaps the actual definition of the economic phrase "bubble": "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values"

In other words, a bubble occurs any time people are regularly paying considerably more for something than it is worth intrinsically, such as gold which has some industrial value but not so much as to merit its current lofty prices. Trade of gold as a "store of value" has increased its value purely via speculation and so it too is a "bubble" at present. Realistically it's just another rock we pull out of the ground that has some special properties (chemically inert, electrically conductive, etc.) which make it better for some tasks than other rocks.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: hoo2jalu on June 12, 2011, 01:14:45 AM
As you know, sailing the seven proxseas is a tiring and expensive adventure, which is why we sometimes need additional cargo or booty trades... We accept the saltiest of sea currencies, also known as BitCoin.
 - http://lulzsecurity.com/donate

You think the scurviest of pirates wouldn't want a treasure chest of booty? Bitcoin Booty no less?

I hoist my quart of grog toward their salty sails! Yo ho!


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Durr on June 12, 2011, 01:22:21 AM
Or, you know, could just be a market correction due a rapid and unsustainable growth, exacerbated by those who wish to exploit it for personal gain?

So what you're saying is that it was, infact, a bubble?
The word bubble is politically incorrect on the Bitcoin.org forums. So yes, it was a bubble.

It's only politically incorrect here because there are a lot of room-temperature-IQ speculators who don't seem to comprehend that "a bubble" is not the same as "THE bubble" - bubbles happen in other markets all the time, but because those of us who aren't day traders don't hear about bubbles unless they destroy a market we assume the worst when we hear the term. It seems that what occurred recently was, in fact, a bubble but that doesn't necessarily mean it's THE bubble that everyone fears will kill the market.

People need to understand that bitcoin isn't really any different than any other commodity. Commodities have only the value we ascribe to them. We are trading so many post-scarcity products (music, movies, pornography) at such ludicrous markups daily that it occurs to me that it should be OBVIOUS that so much in this world has only the value we ascribe to things with no inherent value.

Bitcoin bubble theorists need to both learn some basic economics and perhaps the actual definition of the economic phrase "bubble": "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values"

In other words, a bubble occurs any time people are regularly paying considerably more for something than it is worth intrinsically, such as gold which has some industrial value but not so much as to merit its current lofty prices. Trade of gold as a "store of value" has increased its value purely via speculation and so it too is a "bubble" at present. Realistically it's just another rock we pull out of the ground that has some special properties (chemically inert, electrically conductive, etc.) which make it better for some tasks than other rocks.

You seem to miss out important points such as jewelry and collectors demand, apart from industrial demand.

Not to mention gold has served as a mean of value for humans for centuries, as it is shiny and beautiful and does not oxidate.

Lord Banking Families such as the Rothschilds keep only gold in their vaults for a reason you know:

http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/media/blogs/blog/25/Evelyn_de_Rothschild_gold.jpg

Wouldn't you want to give that a big hug?


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Anonymous on June 12, 2011, 01:25:25 AM
Oh the Rothschilds... Haha, the Rothschilds. Such a bittersweet sight.


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: Basiley on June 12, 2011, 01:26:23 AM
Oh the Rothschilds... Haha, the Rothschilds. Such a bittersweet sight.
next would be Goodwin/Hitler/Jedi card/picture, sure ;)


Title: Re: Is Lulzsec partly to blame for the bitcoin crash?
Post by: enmaku on June 12, 2011, 01:40:38 AM
You seem to miss out important points such as jewelry and collectors demand, apart from industrial demand.

Jewelry would have limited effect on gold price if it weren't for "collectors demand" having already driven it up. There are plenty of pretty shiny metals that are corrosion-resistant and many are significantly better for the purpose than gold itself. Gold is too soft, for example, to be used in most jewelry without being alloyed with other metals.

Oh, and "collectors demand" is another way of saying "speculative value" which is another way of saying "bubble."
The intrinsic value of a baseball card is the cost of paper and ink. The intrinsic value of an old coin is the value of its metals. Any value above this is only in the mind of the investors.

Edit: The main point I'm trying to make is that gold's use in jewelry didn't make gold expensive; gold is expensive and therefore we use it in jewelry as an adornment to prove our wealth and status.