Bitcoin Forum

For the last week or so the price seems to be stuck trading in a very narrow range around 47. Anyone have theories why this is?

Traders got scared by the fork? That event took some heat of the rally. We made it back up and next week we break 50?  :)

It has gone up 2% in the past week. That is better than most yields on savings accounts for a year.

I guess I expected the price to be more volatile. For example, the market for, say, silver is much larger than btc, yet currently it is more volatile. It seems strange to me that such a relatively tiny market can be so stable.

My take is that its either stability or a crash. 

The market was taken by surprise by the sudden growth a few weeks ago, on back of all that good news.

What I expected was that the price would drop again to the $17-$19 price range, but that hasn't happened, and what we have had instead is this stability. 

The only thing to take from this is that the vast majority of people in the market are getting used to the idea that BTC has a value of over $40. The longer the stability lasts, the more normal that price becomes and the chances of a drop below that figure minimise.

The latest events demonstrate that the technical aspects of bitcoin are under control and its maturing as a technology.  That can only be a good thing for all crypto currencies.

The dangers are now more business and political.
We are getting to the end of the business financial year, and that could make a difference.
However, I will be very interested to see how the events in Cyprus effect BTC and LTC (its got a big Russian following for what I understand) over the next few weeks.

Its not going to be at $40-$50 for long! ;)

I would say that BTC is undervalued right now. It will go over 50 in few days.

I agree..

SELL BTC, BUY LTC ... are you mad ?

Watching the real time trading graphs the volume of trades has really slowed down.  Seeing like 1 or 2 trades a minute down from 1 or 2 trades a second during the mania phase.  Also Bitcoin days destroyed down significantly to almost 0 as of the writing of this post.  Basically there is no movement either way. 

http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed

If I had to guess, I would say, that people who were going to buy to invest have pretty much all done so by now, and people who are holding to invest are waiting to see whats going to happen next.  All the while, we have miners who need to pay power bills. 

I think this indicates a slow drop off over the next several months as miners continue to sell part of their coins to keep the lights on as well as others who were holding starting to notice a downtrend and getting out before they are on the losing end of a downward trend. 

Unless new money comes in to the market to pump it up more, it seems like this party is over.  At this point the best we can hope for is to maintain, or a slow decline. 

Comparing the weekend to the mania phase... not a great comparison.

Yes, I noticed the same thing too.  However, I noticed too that a LOT MORE people are putting sell order between 47.5 to 48.5 compared to people putting buy order between 47 and 46.  So there a big wall that prevent prices from rising compared to falling :-\

Cyprus Vs Fork

Let's see what happens, my money's on sideways.

No, I'm afraid that all of you are wrong. Theoretically, a stalemate after a big rally with the price maintaining in a narrow channel that's only a little bit under the latest high usually means a bigger rally occurring imminently.

Source?

Hmmm... Try Cyprus+Argentina+Coinlab Vs. Fork

I don't know where you get this, but it looks plausible.  I just bought another 2K$ worth of Bitcoins ;D  Let's hope it goes up!

No source at all. It's only a theory applying on the stock market. Moreover, I observed that the buying transactions are still overwhelming the selling ones in most of the time.

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:ascending_triangle_c

Yes, that's it!

It's just working off the recent faster-than-exponential growth spurt triggered by passing the all-time high at $32. Catching its breath, so to speak, before reverting to its exponential trendline to take the psychologically relevant $50 milestone. I'm guessing there's a 70% chance it will break $50 this week, and a 90% chance it will get there by the end of next week.

I would guess that from very trivial TA (the most effective kind) point of view it is just "waiting" for a moving average to catch up i.e. as you just said "catching its breath" and it will bounce up from it.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90zigDailyztgSza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g25zv

Such market behavior is also known among pros as "correction by time".

Looks like we're finally stabilising. I'm sure it won't last long, one way or the other, but I for one will enjoy it while it does.

^^^^^^^^
What this geezer said. BTC price coiling up for a push past 50 I reckon.

This is a good point, but I think the BTC market is structured far more efficiently. With BTC pretty much everything is a 1:1 correlation, sender to receiver, trader to exchange, etc.  A lot of time wasting and bs is cut out (market hours, brokerages etc.). Also many people say the metals markets are manipulated anyway.

... and Bitcoin quietly makes another all time high 49.79$.

49.949!

Edit: 50!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well I have to admit it, I was wrong and I'm 100% blown away.  Its the last time I bet against the bitcoin.  After hours of reseaarch, I had pulled my coins at 47 convinced, this was was the peak, only to have them surge to 53 the next day.  I'm getting back in at the higher price, taking the hit, licking my wounds and just going to put them away in cold storage and come back two years from now.  This trying to eek a bit more profit from day trading is stupid and I just wasted 10 btc in the effort. Oh well.  My advice, don't bet against the bit coin.  you will lose every time.   

Yeah.  Takes awhile to get that one, sometimes.

But don't stop spending them...

^^^^

I'm getting good at this prediction lark. Kudos donations here please: 1FU1EX4xCEt26rezoNaEZ1rhbqA4VVP8pq