Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: samson on March 20, 2013, 06:31:13 AM



Title: Has some large dumping started
Post by: samson on March 20, 2013, 06:31:13 AM
It's hard to get data out of Gox at the moment.

Their regular http API isn't giving out any details, the Clark Moody service isn't working too well and btccharts also appears to be down.

However what I did get out of Clark Moody is on the graph.

In 1 hour intervals we've seen the price change from $60.69 down to $58.00 in the last 3 hours with trade volumes of 1499, 3569 and 2950 for each hour all with red candles.

I'm no good with the technical analysis stuff, is this just a fluctuation or the start of a downtrend or do we just have to wait it out ?

I've got an itchy trigger finger right now.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: Minor Miner on March 20, 2013, 06:32:50 AM
relax.   just wait.   there are tons of BFL people that will need to get BTC to buy batch III from a company that actually ships.   they are sleeping and you are being paranoid.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: Bowjob on March 20, 2013, 06:33:11 AM
Go ahead. Sell all your coins. Buy higher later.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: samson on March 20, 2013, 06:36:07 AM
I'm just getting a little nervous that's all.

Normally when these kind of movements happen I'm not sitting at my computer at the time so this is the first time I've seen it dip like this before.

I fully believe that we will be well into the $60's in a short period of time.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: deathcode on March 20, 2013, 06:38:56 AM
I'm just getting a little nervous that's all.

Normally when these kind of movements happen I'm not sitting at my computer at the time so this is the first time I've seen it dip like this before.

I fully believe that we will be well into the $60's in a short period of time.
Nervous for what? in January the BTC price was $13... do you really think we'll see anything close to it?
Yesterday the value was $47... we are $11 more now....
what are you nervous about? that it'll go back to $47??


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: TradeFortress on March 20, 2013, 06:39:52 AM
We're just seeing resistance at $60.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: BitPirate on March 20, 2013, 06:40:19 AM
http://bitcoinity.org/markets?currency=USD&exchange=mtgox works OK.


Price in the short-term always goes up and down. The only reason to watch closely is to buy in more at a better price. The price goes down, as that is what everyone is waiting for to buy in again. It's a bull's market -- this time next week it will be up.

Hold or buy, but don't think about selling unless you need the US$...


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: Melbustus on March 20, 2013, 06:56:31 AM

I'm no good with the technical analysis stuff, is this just a fluctuation or the start of a downtrend or do we just have to wait it out ?

I've got an itchy trigger finger right now.


Sounds like you should NOT be short-term trading. So look at the fundamentals of bitcoin, decide what you think the "fair" price would be considering your estimation of value in the success case, value in the fail case (if not 0), the probabilities of those cases, and how long from now those might occur. If current price is below your result, buy. If above, sell. (note that this analysis is independent of taking your life's circumstances into account, and how variance might affect your utility and therefore your rational buy/sell decisions).

And yes, there will be lots of guesstimation involved in the above analysis. But that's still much better than what you're doing right now. Few people are able to actually have a long-term statistically significant edge in short-term trading. But many people have a long-term ability to fool themselves into thinking they do.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: oakpacific on March 20, 2013, 06:57:06 AM
If you, like me, switch to the bear side for a while and sell a small part of your coins, you will notice how incredible the buying pressure is, and how difficult it's for bears to acheive any sizable progress.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: samson on March 20, 2013, 08:58:56 AM
You guys are right. I'm moving my BTC off of Gox into a cold storage wallet, this removes a whole level of temptation for me.

If I sell any I know there's a high chance that I will need to buy back in later at a higher price - I've done this before.

However the last time I sold big (for me) a couple of weeks ago I purchased a bunch of Litecoin which enabled me to more than double my money when I sold that off. I suspect this was a one time event though. For now I'm staying put.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: phlogistonq on March 20, 2013, 09:08:37 AM
So far, the only occasions I have been able to profit significantly from short term sell and re-buy transactions were immediately after a very, very steep increase. These have so far been followed, nearly always, by a little dip, retracting approx 70% of the increase, only to increase again a little and settle into a new (temporarily) stable price.
This is also the pattern that we followed yesterday, steep increase 47->62 (it unexpectedly filled my sell order at 60.9), then a dip back to 53 (I was expecting 54), then up/down oscilliations with decreasing amplitude to 'settle' around 58.
What you are seeing now are only small volume transactions, the market consolidating and in a little while, perhaps today, but more likely in one or day or two days from now, we will take off again barring seriously bad news.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: Vladimir on March 20, 2013, 09:11:46 AM
I've got an itchy trigger finger right now.

You are probably better off just selling and getting on with your life. If you do not sell now they likely will shake you off along with a bunch of other emotional and weak hands and likely at a lower price too.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: deathcode on March 20, 2013, 01:33:34 PM
Yeah a dumping started alright... people are dumping fiat and buying bitcoin!


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: mccorvic on March 20, 2013, 01:45:25 PM
I'm no good with the technical analysis stuff

Don't worry, no one is good at TA stuff because it's just a bunch of post hoc tea reading.

Anyone who dumps will just see people take the opportunity to buy their cheap coins and spark a mini-rally.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: justusranvier on March 20, 2013, 01:55:44 PM
Don't panic, the price will rise and fall. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w)


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: RodeoX on March 20, 2013, 01:59:37 PM
Yes, please do panic sell. It will help bitcoin to get the coins away from shaky, speculative hands.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: Mark Oates on March 20, 2013, 03:04:50 PM
Don't panic, the price will rise and fall. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w)
So cool. :)


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: thebaron on March 20, 2013, 03:12:04 PM
It's not dumping, it's either retarded SR sellers liquidating big chunks at a time at a time or retarded bots.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: ehoffman on March 20, 2013, 03:16:03 PM
Every dumping result in an equivalent pumping/buying!  ;)


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: bzzard on March 20, 2013, 03:52:33 PM
and btccharts also appears to be down.
No place thin foil hat here - planned maintenance at my hosting.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: stereotype on March 20, 2013, 04:00:43 PM
Is that right 23,000 volume in the last 15mins?


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: gimme_bottles on March 20, 2013, 04:01:32 PM
Is that right 23,000 volume in the last 15mins?

hell yeah, that's correct :D :D


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: proudhon on March 20, 2013, 04:03:23 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: humanitee on March 20, 2013, 04:08:54 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

Come on.

I'll give you a hint at what's being exhausted - it's not fiat.

http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: Minor Miner on March 20, 2013, 04:16:21 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

You think?   Usually markets trade based on supply and demand.   Without a significantly liquid short market, supply is limited.   With people sitting on their coins the free float is really limited.   There is some short of natural demand (for people going to SR and the other places you can buy and some people hiding) but there are also factors that are temporarily pushing demand up.  Think about that.   


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: stereotype on March 20, 2013, 04:31:46 PM
Is that right 23,000 volume in the last 15mins?

hell yeah, that's correct :D :D

Well if i had a stable Gox order book, that would have been interesting to watch. Is everyone else having issues with clarkmoody data?


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: samson on March 20, 2013, 04:38:28 PM
Well if i had a stable Gox order book, that would have been interesting to watch. Is everyone else having issues with clarkmoody data?

Mine crapped out when the big buy got to about 10,000.

I'm glad I kept my BTC now.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: thebaron on March 20, 2013, 05:32:41 PM
Every dumping result in an equivalent pumping/buying!  ;)

It takes awhile for the dumb bots to catch up and cancel their fake sell orders.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: mr chong on March 20, 2013, 06:20:11 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

I was starting to worry about the price going up so fast again but now we can all rest easy now that proudhon has spoken. 70 here we come!!!


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: deathcode on March 20, 2013, 09:20:22 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

Dude, please keep talking, it seems like every time you open your mouth the opposite happens!
keep it up for a couple of months and we'll see $500 in no time! :)
thank you thank you!


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: mccorvic on March 20, 2013, 09:25:06 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

Dude, please keep talking, it seems like every time you open your mouth the opposite happens!
keep it up for a couple of months and we'll see $500 in no time! :)
thank you thank you!


This has been the theme since BTC hit the $2 low.  He talks, we win. I love it.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: proudhon on March 20, 2013, 10:14:34 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

Dude, please keep talking, it seems like every time you open your mouth the opposite happens!
keep it up for a couple of months and we'll see $500 in no time! :)
thank you thank you!


This has been the theme since BTC hit the $2 low.  He talks, we win. I love it.

I'll happily carry the burden of nagle.  This party is very probably close to being over.  Everyone should probably prepare for a depressing several years.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: mccorvic on March 20, 2013, 10:15:09 PM
I'll happily carry the burden of nagle.  This party is very probably close to being over.  Everyone should probably prepare for a depressing several years.

You keep using the word "probably". I don't think it means what you think it means.


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: klee on March 20, 2013, 10:15:32 PM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

Dude, please keep talking, it seems like every time you open your mouth the opposite happens!
keep it up for a couple of months and we'll see $500 in no time! :)
thank you thank you!


This has been the theme since BTC hit the $2 low.  He talks, we win. I love it.

I'll happily carry the burden of nagle.  This party is very probably close to being over.  Everyone should probably prepare for a depressing several years.
Dude u r a genius! Honestly..


Title: Re: Has some large dumping started
Post by: oakpacific on March 22, 2013, 08:37:07 AM
Looking at the order book history through btccharts.com, it looks like that large buy order that was at $30 it's the money that's currently being used to buy up the price and fill in the bids at $60+.  As I said yesterday(?), the money on the bids side is getting exhausted now.  Probably won't be long before the dramatic and long term correction occurs.

Dude, please keep talking, it seems like every time you open your mouth the opposite happens!
keep it up for a couple of months and we'll see $500 in no time! :)
thank you thank you!


This has been the theme since BTC hit the $2 low.  He talks, we win. I love it.

I'll happily carry the burden of nagle.  This party is very probably close to being over.  Everyone should probably prepare for a depressing several years.

Wow, a paid shill found a true friend in you, fucking worth it. Besides, stop your fearmongering, the reality is that people here are not going to feel depressed even if the market crashes, there will be more than enough time to cash out before the price finally stablizes, and nobody will be unhappy if they can take a handsome profit and buy back cheap bitcoins at the same time.