Bitcoin Forum

I'd like to offer a competition similar to my previous Bitcoin one (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=56562.0;all), but for Litecoins this time, firstly for when the value of a single litecoin will be equal to 1 gram of silver, with a present silver price of $28.64 per Troy Ounce with 32.15075 ounces to 1 Kg, that gives a price of $0.9208 per gram atm for silver against the present LTC price of approx $0.56 each. Note Bitcoin overtook the 1 Gm gold price this week for the first time, see recent posts in the other competition thread.

http://getbullionuk.com/47-146-large/emirates-1-gram-silver-bar.jpg

Secondly for when the Litecoin market cap (number of units issued times price) will equal at least 0.1 billion dollars = $100,000,000
the present market cap is around 11 million USD I believe.

There is a prize of 100 LTC for each competition with a doubling of the prizes for anyone who guesses both correctly for a total of 400 LTC.

Please express date as YYYY MM DD or as 29th Feb 2012 say, thread will be locked on the 1st May 2013 - please don't edit your dates except for typos/clarity or to add a date for either one of the competitions that you haven't yet chosen for but please also make a new post for this so that I see it, my rules & common sense, i.e. if someone puts the same date as one already chosen the first person wins it & ambiguous dates will be void, one entry per pre-existing forum ID & sock puppet accounts will be void if spotted.

Edit: Closest guesses win obviously, dates are by GMT/UTC time & an additional competition for a flat 100 LTC prize, if he does so then when will Mike Caldwell/Casascius first put physical litecoins on sale to the public.

Edit 2: If anyone who would like to add to these prizes then please to let me know.

Edit 3: Price to be taken as on the main/largest exchange at the time, ie atm it's BTC-E.

Edit 4: 2013 03 31 With the silver price (http://www.kitcosilver.com/) making a low of $28.22 per Oz = $0.87774 per gram last Thursday & Litecoin making a high of $0.8247 yesterday we are getting very close, so a small rules change, once the price of litecoins goes over $0.85 or if silver falls below $27.50 per Oz = $0.85535 approx per gram then entries on the 1 LTC = 1 gm Ag part of the competition are closed.

See post #7 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157448.msg1668287#msg1668287) for a summary of entries to date, which updates every so often, but quite often, at least daily usually atm.

(Note to self - in future reserve post #2 for this)

2013 06 23
2013 06 04
LeWNNA4k6f27CEcpoauqJ2zz3pbHEd5jQ5

2013 07 23
2013 07 04

2013 10 05
2013 06 22
LNycvZBqFrh6Q6jD1tJJoEcCo9eZ8DFut4

"Answer 1" =  2013 03 31

"Answer 2" =  2015 05 22

 8)

6th of April, 2013 for silver (g) parity
I will update before 1st of may with my other guess

Edited for month, hopefully that's cool

Summary Page # 1 ...will edit to add dates chosen ...

1g Ag

2013 03 31 Organic    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed  
2013 03 31 bitrain ~ void, needs to pick a date that hasn't been taken already    <--- 10 LTC consolation prize given anyway  
2013 04 04 Bitcoin BEAR
2013 04 05 samurajj
2013 04 06 RyNinDaCleM
2013 04 15 niner
2013 04 27 live627
2013 04 30 goxed
2013 05 01 smoothie
2013 05 02 iCEBREAKER
2013 05 03 ALToids
2013 05 04 Grover
2013 05 05 kooke
2013 05 18 mrbrt
2013 05 22 wizzardTim
2013 06 23 myhoho
2013 07 23 Wekkel
2013 08 04 thepickingpair
2013 08 31 MyZhre
2013 10 01 tgsrge
2013 10 05 bitcartel
2013 11 11 Chaang Noi (Goat) ช้างน้อยMyZhre

Edit: 2013 03 31 With the silver price (http://www.kitcosilver.com/) making a low of $28.22 per Oz = $0.87774 per gram last Thursday & Litecoin making a high of $0.8247 yesterday we are getting very close, so a small rules change, once the price of litecoins goes over $0.85 or if silver falls below $27.50 per Oz = $0.85535 approx per gram then entries on the 1 LTC = 1 gm Ag part of the competition are closed.


$0.1B

2013 04 02 raintrain
2013 04 03 btc24    <--- looks like a winner, this now confirmed & prize sent    
2013 04 04 FatMagic
2013 04 06 Hannah
2013 04 08 forgeron
2013 04 13 tellmemiau
2013 04 14 Scott J
2013 05 02 der_troll
2013 06 03 samurajj
2013 06 04 myhoho
2013 06 06 niner
2013 06 22 bitcartel
2013 07 04 Wekkel
2013 07 08 live627
2013 08 01 bitrain
2013 08 31 goxed
2013 09 20 mrbrt
2013 11 01 tgsrge
2013 04 11 elelegzet
2013 12 15 MyZhre
2013 12 29 ALToids
2013 12 30 iCEBREAKER
2013 12 31 smoothie

2014 01 15 Bitcoin BEAR
2014 02 02 wizzardTim
2014 02 20 Grover
2014 05 03 kooke
2014 06 11 thepickingpair

2015 01 01 Chaang Noi (Goat) ช้างน้อยMyZhre
2015 05 22 Organic


Cas LTC

2013 05 15 FatMagic
2013 06 01 RyNinDaCleM
2013 06 13 Craftyman
2013 09 13 Hannah
2013 10 27 samurajj

2014 01 01 Bitcoin BEAR
2014 02 02 Chaang Noi (Goat) ช้างน้อยMyZhre
2014 04 01 kooke
2014 06 02 der_troll

See OP edit, added this one   <--- doesn't anyone feel that this is worth betting on? I know that he hasn't exactly shown any interest in alts as yet but time will tell. If you do then please to do so in new posts, rather than edits to previous ones, so that I can see the order that they came in, many thanks.

Edit: Seems like he's not interested in this, so entries now closed, thanks to all who took part.


Thumbs up from Casascius (https://casascius.wordpress.com/2013/07/12/status-on-silver-coin-production-and-shipments/)

"You may have heard that Noah Luis aka Smoothie on the Bitcointalk forums has released “Lealana Litecoins”, essentially a physical Litecoin similar to my offering. His current product is a half-ounce silver round loaded with 10 Litecoins, and is available for sale for both BTC and LTC directly from him. I support his efforts and am pleased to see what he has produced."

2013 05 22
2014 02 02
Thanks  8)

2013 08 04
2014 06 11

Smoothie's Prediction:  ;D

2013 05 01
2013 12 31

2013 05 012013 04 27
2013 07 08

Q1 - 2013 03 31
Q2 - 2013 08 01

2013 05 02
2013 12 30

LOL I see what you did there.

 :D

Summary page (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=157448.msg1668287#msg1668287) updated, btw bitrain & live627 you choose some dates that were already picked, please re-enter different ones for the 1g Ag, ty.

Cas LTC

See OP edit, added this one   <--- doesn't anyone feel that this is worth betting on? If you do then please to do so in new posts, rather than edits to previous ones, so that I can see the order that they came in, many thanks.

I'm not sure that Mike will ever issue physical LTC, but if he were to, I will guess that sustained $ parity will pique his interest in LTC. As for a date, I'll say June 1st, 2013.

2013 05 03
2013 12 29

II edited my previous post.

2013 10 01 for the 1 gram of silver
2013 11 01 for the 100million usd market cap
LfKnUEZCjaa6nXr59rpUFiWDVi5QMcxuEF

if it hasnt reached either of those by 2014 then it probably never will.

Q1
2013 05 04

Q2
2014 02 20

ADDED

LhHkJ3twj66VgehZLbZKHX4BNrPSgGTstY

Q1: 2013-05-13 2013-05-18 (edited like 30 seconds after posted)
Q2: 2013-09-20

np - if the summary page hasn't been updated then it's fine, once you're on that it's more fixed.

1g Ag
2013 05 05

$0.1B
Q2 2014 05 03

Physical coin
2014 04 01

BTW, which exchange are you going to use to determine the value of LTC? I sold an LTC on vircurex for around $0.80 USD before  ;D

Which ever is the main/largest exchange at the time, so atm BTC-E.

1g Ag
2013 08 31

$0.1B
2013 12 15

LLkPS62ZVbjErUheY8BNH2Eugix7KyVxAJ

 ;D

2013 11 11

2015 01 01

Cass  2014 02 02

Thanks

1g Ag:
2013 04 05

$0.1B:
2013 06 03

Cas LTC:
2013 10 27

Ldfx7xoZrSgT17iSP9YmgiowKqPBjzkEgR

LTC==1g silver
4-4-2013

.1B
15-1-2014

CAS
1-1-2014

Apr 30 2013
Aug 31 2013

LRphghF3vefzxAeP27HR7ya5RCNEa6ZLLf

With the silver price (http://www.kitcosilver.com/) making a low of $28.22 per Oz = $0.87774 per gram last Thursday & Litecoin making a high of $0.8247 yesterday we are getting very close, so a small rules change, once the price of litecoins goes over $0.85 or if silver falls below $27.50 per Oz = $0.85535 approx per gram then entries on the 1 LTC = 1 gm Ag part of the competition are closed.

Then whomever picked today is the winner.  On BTC-e at exchange time 06:30 LTC reached a high of $0.8694. https://btc-e.com/exchange/ltc_usd

Not yet lol....

but soon haha

we are all super conservative with our timeframes....fucking amazing lol

Yeap. There is no winner according to post 7.

ADDED
^^^ I was looking at the exchange date of 4/1, forgot it was still 3/31 in the USA.

2013 04 15
2013 06 06

LLoZkeod6uZ8mLRvXpQ9A1pNyRNf9Xzf1K

Pretty sure that the silver date entry was made after the cut off (when ltc went over $0.85) but I'll enter it anyway as it seems that's over already with the serge to $1.3568 & closest date looks like 31st March with Organic the winner, will confirm when checked the silver price.

Silver is around $28 per Oz = $0.871 approx per gram so the 1st April 2013 was when Litecoins gained parity with 1 gram of silver & considerably surpassed it too, going 55% over.

Congratulations! Organic, let me know where you'd like the 100 ltc prize to be sent & good luck with the $0.1B Litecoin market cap. ;)

Other big ltc milestones today, over $1 obviously & also over 1 million USD traded in 24 hours. (https://www.bit-trader.net/litecoin-passes-1-million-usd-in-24hr-trading/)

Also http://slashdot.org/submission/2576047/mtgox-to-accept-litecoin-virtual-currency Not sure if troll or April fool's as yet...

https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/LTCUSD/money/ticker

https://data.mtgox.com/api/2/LTCGBP/money/ticker

Also LTCEUR LTCGBP & the links have Mt.Gox security certificate

Yeah congrats organic.

Please post all of your other LTC predictions. ;)

Oh, I did not notice that my guess was already taken in time (I thought I checked it)... But I don't mind about consolation prize :D (it was pretty exact, nah?)

You should have moved it to 2013 04 01, better luck with the $0.1B one, but if we are over 0.012 BTC in 24 hrs then I'll send you a 10 LTC consolation prize.

 :D
Lc2oz1o29LhUAh2q3BXAAYN2Kxvogr9Hky

How many litecoins are there right now?

Google is your friend & http://explorer.litecoin.net so 16,246,404.47272158 or there abouts atm, which @ $1.478 gives a present market cap of around $24M.

I would say 2013 04 11 for $0.1B

2013 04 13
I'm pretty sure we will be there in several weeks  ;D ;D ;D...

2013 04 08

tomorrow!
2013 04 03

2013 04 14

 ;D

2013 04 04

Today!!!!
2013 04 02

We're at 70m now, so probably not long.

Sry for the delay, I was kinda celebrating yesterday & didn't want to open a wallet when drinking, > 0.04 BTC certainly merits a 10 LTC consolation prize now sent  :)

$0.1B     2013 04 06

Cas LTC  2013 09 13

CAS LTC Physical Coin

2013 05 15

This could be a winner, see the 'litecoin now has a market cap of 731,000 BTC. Thats over 100 million dollars boys and girls' thread on r/litecoin (http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/)

Thursday: afk for a couple of days traveling atm, will look in to this more on my return...

 Awesome! I will be happy to receive my prize ) : LfJUtrxqu7cChehEbxkdMvkWSsF7UpFyMy
 Can't wait to see LTC to be over $5 again...
 Thanks everybody!

Sry for the delay, back home now from my travels, tomorrow I will look in to the results for this, any one who knows the exact figures re price & number of LTC in the wild with timing to the nearest day or closer & wishes to share them would be much appreciated, 3 ltc reward offered for most accurate within the next 24 hours.

$0.1B: 2013-05-02

Cas LTC: 2014-06-02 

After careful checking I find that using btc-e's ltc/usd chart & info the high for ltc on 2013 04 03 was $5.89999

http://www.ltc-charts.com/period-charts.php?period=2-weeks&resolution=day&pair=ltc-usd&market=btc-e

& the max number of ltc in existence on that day was 16,350,454.5 for a total max market cap of 96,467,515 so < $0.1B

http://explorer.litecoin.net/chain/Litecoin?hi=327030&count=20

I haven't checked if the ltc/btc & btc/usd price would give a higher figure, someone else (like to potential winner if he likes) could perhaps do this & post the proof with links, otherwise I shall try & get round to it maybe tomorrow.

Edit: ltc/btc high on 2013 04 03 was 0.04490 btc

http://www.ltc-charts.com/period-charts.php?period=2-weeks&resolution=day&pair=ltc-btc&market=btc-e

& btc/usd high was approx $147 at a little after 8 am

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg30zczsg2013-04-04zeg2013-04-04ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

which gives $6.60 max per ltc so $107.9M market cap, will edit for 8am which will be less...

16,324,004 x $6.60 = $107.7M so yep this does seem to be when litecoin first gained a market cap of over $0.1B, if there are no objections this weekend then I shall pay the prize on Monday. When ltc equaled $6.13 (via ltc/btc on Btc-e & via btc/usd on Gox) was the tipping point approx.

http://explorer.litecoin.net/chain/Litecoin?hi=326500&count=20

I'm not sure if this is the best way to have worked it out, it's how I personally calculate the current ltc/usd price but I didn't make this totally clear in the rules, so please let me know if anyone objects to this, or thinks it fairer to just use Btc-e's ltc/usd price to calculate, or split the prize with 50 ltc for btc-24 & half for whoever is closest later using just btc-e's prices unless Gox is by then the larger exchange for ltc.

 It's a tough question! The actual problem is that dollar worth more at btc-e.com as far as in/out commissions are quite high, I belive. Normally, they trade bitcoins about 10% "cheaper" comparing to all other major exchanges. So, if one would trade litecoins for bitcoins and then trade bitcoins for dollars at mtgox or bitstamp or vircurex or elsewhere - one could reach the market capacity above 0.1 B USD...
 I'll be ok with any legit decision anyway. This prize would be a great way to recover from the recent btc-e account hack (I lost a significant part of coins because of the lack of security and sequent brute-force attack... as many others)...
 

With the silver price making a low of $28.22 per Oz = $0.87774 per gram last Thursday & Litecoin making a high of $0.8247 yesterday we are getting very close, so a small rules change, once the price of litecoins goes over $0.85 or if silver falls below $27.50 per Oz = $0.85535 approx per gram then entries on the 1 LTC = 1 gm Ag part of the competition are closed.

btc24 Thanks for your patience & fair minded attitude, I've decided that using the largest markets for each conversion is the fairest & that would be ltc/btc on btc-e followed by btc/usd on gox to give a melded ltc/usd (via btc) price & there haven't been any objections to this anyway (it was originally what I had in mind to do anyway as I always calculate it like this) so I'm now sending your 100 ltc prize, glad that it's coming at a good time for you & also the ltc price is looking perky atm too in both btc & usd terms.

edit: http://explorer.litecoin.net/address/LfJUtrxqu7cChehEbxkdMvkWSsF7UpFyMy :)