Bitcoin Forum

Hello Fellas and Bellas,

I'm trying to firstly conceptualize and then hopefully create an accurate Bitcoin Future Valuation tool of some sort. It would essentially be a tool that lets you "scientifically"  and accurately forecast the Value/Price of 1 Bitcoin (and X amount of Bitcoins) in regards to the short,mid and long term future. It would obviously use specific metrics coupled with real-time market sentiment readings which would cause real-time fluctuation/ramifications to the future Valuations .

But i want to ask, is this even possible? I know predicting the future of ANYTHING is deemed impossible but at the very best i am trying to create something that can be classed as REALISTIC in terms of the future projections it provides.


Your thoughts?

Absolutely not.  You can speculate the future price based on some statistic but predicting it with 100% accuracy is impossible.

My good (would-be) friend, "100% accuracy" is not the aim of the game, so to speak. A smooth and viable overall future valuation is whats being pursued here. With some level of accuracy, obviously.

2 words spring to mind.

1) Realistic
2) Conservative


Your thoughts?

It will still be hard.  Sure, you probably will get few correct predictions, but getting it right every single time is simply not possible no matter how good you are.

I think there are companies that try to write software to do this kind of thing. In fact, Craig Wright, the guy in the middle of all the "who is Satoshi" arguments said he was working on this, where the software scanned things like Twitter posts and other social media to try to find out what sentiment was on a particular subject. The twist was that different versions of the software competed and the one that was most accurate would earn the most Bitcoin, allowing it to buy more computing resources and grow. So the software would sort of evolve, on its own, into a profitable entity. It was very interesting stuff.


It may be possible to gain slight insights into where the market is headed occasionally, yes. I guess it depends on the assumptions of what the data meant. It could also be that the software might stumble onto a trend that proved accurate for a while. Of course nobody can predict the future with a high degree of accuracy all the time. For example, when Bitfinex was hacked for millions of dollars a little while ago the price crashed like over $100 or something ridiculous and it's only now recovering. That could never be predicted.

Some news could affect the price with one way or another and you could predict little bit but the price is mostly based on supply and demand so It's pretty much impossible to know since there is coins that get lost every day (which increase the price little bit) , there is Darknet website that opens & close from time to time ... all that could affect price and you can't get all the news and put them into a software just like that.

I think you can somehow teel the uptrend or downtrend of bitcoin price using news. but it is still at 50% that the prediction is correct.  But to be honest even if you are good at predictions, there is always this X factor that makes it more difficult to tell even if it meets the criteria to make something happen, this X factor can change the outcome of it.

So in essence, nothing short of a supercomputer with a near infinite amount of real-time data (some of it being obscure data) could forecast the future value of a Bitcoin? Or are we all being a tad bit pessimistic and limiting our own developmental abilities?

I for one believe a system can be created that can divulge future valuations of a Bitcoin. It would just really depend on a robust/uninterruptible feed of real-time data (data which holds weight and has proven to be influential on BTC price) and also a couple of computed variable data "correctors" to "smoothen" out any future Value alterations that can be caused by unexpected "X-factors".

Your thoughts?

When any process is connected with human in any way it could not be precisely predicted coz human can be driven by emotions and emotions are not rational.

Lot of people think the halving can dictate the price, I doubt that... Yes it have influencie but isn't all...

For example, last month we have the bitfinex hack and the price goes down, who can predict it? None!

In the future will be the same thing, will happen things we don't imagine, bitcoin related or not.

Like was said before, we are humans, a lot of emotions envolved...

I don't think that is possible, even if that was possible "scientifically" then there surely would have been a lot of people predicting accurately the prices of some things and then would earn a ton of money with that, but prediction is a prediction at the end of the day which can never be 100% accurate.

To be able to predict the future value of bitcoin accurately is not possible because there are so many factors affecting the price making it go up or down. One can only speculate whether the price will go up or down base on the past condition of the market because if it can be predicted then there would be so many millionaires now knowing when to buy or sell bitcoin. If someone claims that he can accurately predict what will happen in the future then surely he is bluffing because no one can predict it.

But lets say we could calculate the number of calamities in X period (1 day/ 1 week/ 1 month/1 year) and we also calculate the likely effect on price alongside the "recovery time". Then we finally factor it into the final future Value projection? (alongside other vital metrics, obviously)

Remember, where there is a way there is a ....


Your thoughts?

I don't think anything can be predicted 100% correctly regarding the future value of bitcoin. It's still very early days & bitcoin can be so volatile.

The price can still be manipulated by large players so we just have to wait & see how everything plays out.

No you can't because you can take bitcoin trading just like forex, commodity trading and now with $9billion+ in marketcap it has also considered as good trading pair with large volume. Trading is being done for years but no one have found any method or formula to predict the market, this same goes for bitcoin price.

However sometime when big news are coming or good development are about to come, possibility of pump is high. But nobody can predict price accurately or future of bitcoin price.

Well, even knowing the statistic of bitcoin everyday is hard, you won’t exactly identify when it will rise or fall, each day is a new situation, not to mention accurately predicting its price, especially in a long term. However, if you can do that then you must be some kinds of genius.

many have tried and many have failed. would be a surprise if you could manage. this would make you rich and you could also use it on other currencys and stocks. but i think it is scientifically proven, that you are not able to predict a price anyway.

An admirable idea but totally impossible. http://worldbitcoinnetwork.com/BitcoinPriceModel-Alpha.html this is about as close as anyone's going to get.

It is a good project but it cant be done. Even if you will have all the statistics and bitcoin usage of each exchange site and wallet sites it is still not possible.
There are people who kept their money in core wallet and you wont know when they will use it.
There have been a lot of users now also so it changes a lot, you can add the gamblers too.

Even the wallet exchanges have different prices of bitcoin everyday, some have a higher price and most are lower.

You will never be able to predict the price but one thing is for sure that you can tell what difficulty if hash power is determined.
And there is no doubt about bitcoin increasing price in the future at least we can can depend on it.

no

Maybe.  But it is more of 90% impossible.  Even if you are a genius with all the formulas and scientific method combined it is impossible for us to "accurately" predict the value of bitcoin.  Just like in stock market, a very high price then just a matter of a second it would collapse.  But if you want to formulate what would be the value of a bitcoin on a date you could do so.  Maybe it could help someone to predict the value of a bitcoin and it could be a guideline.  Good luck!

Maybe you can get somewhat real results, but not an accurate one. Everything that will happen in the future is actually unpredictable. What we can do is just predict and go with the flow, it's just a guess. Let's assume that your data comes from facts like as you have said, "real time market sentiments" but it can't guarantee you or anybody of an accurate data for the future.

Impossible even if you had the formulas and whatever theoretical background that you needed to cover it, I’m pretty sure that the computational power that you will need is enormous and is simply unavailable to you or anyone for that matter.

It is impossible to predict 100% accurate, if you can predict 100% accurately, you will be rich,  for a short term prediction maybe can be predicted accurately until 60%, but for a long term its impossible to predict accurately because anything can happen

That's possible,predict is will be better if you don't out from the road of the realistic things, and you need for considering a lot of factor before making your predict, will the people is seeing your predicted is not just a trump.
Well applied in your concept and your tool.

It's basically impossible to determine the future value of bitcoin because chances are there are going to be more pseudo-random market fluctuations over the next few months (let along years or decades). These movements are brought on by news or just how the market feels in general, and because of this there are no real ways you can track the market and understand what is going to happen next. Just look at the past week if you don't believe me; no-one was really predicting the rise that happened.

The future value of Bitcoin can't be predicted accurately, like any other market. Sure you can predict if the price will go up or down, but you may be wrong most of the time.

it depends on your definition of "Accurately".
if you mean with some room for error and some range then i guess it can be possible but definitely not easy. bitcoin price unlike other commodities with price like stocks or gold,... is not exactly following technical analysis and is being affected by many different factors that makes is tough to predict.

Short answer: No, price of Bitcoin or any other crypto can't be accurately predicted.

We might try to do it, some predictions might be even accurate, but they are not backed by any real knowledge, they are simply hit or miss assumptions.

Bitcoin market is too volatile to be evaluated in normal way - like FIAT currency is. All we can tell that bitcoin value will rise over time. How much and when? No one knows.

No , we can't predict it accurately ,because bitcoin price value always depends on the Blocks and fluctuations made by the users .its something that very hard to predict what will be the its bitcoin value in the future ,but we can estimate its value nearly from time to time on bitcoin halving seasons. Only one thing for sure that the future of bitcoin is also too unpredictable .we can't control the market fluctuation unless we have the most stocks of bitcoins that in a single buying or selling we can control a big portion of its value.

in my opinion there is no chance of predict the btc price until the next halving comes . because after nezt halving there will be no mining of btc ( information was given by the news sites during last halving ) .

1. Define "accurately". Within what range?

2. To predict the value of bitcoin accurately is rather simple. All you need to know are all the inputs that have a bearing on the value of bitcoin relative to your chosen benchmark. So going from the baseline of a known fact - the current price and current economic factors - all you need to know is 100% of future economic factors such as the pace of bitcoin adoption globally, macroeconomic factors affecting the value of your benchmark, a detailed grasp of the impact of all future economic crises (including timing, scope, severity and government response to each), all legal changes impacting the adoption of bitcoin in every country by individuals and business, the advertising plans and impact of companies in the bitcoinspace working to mainstream bitcoin, the plans, timing and success of every technological endeavor related to bitcoin protocol and ecosystem improvements, all future bitcoin heists and scams of significance, etc. ad infinitum.

Like I said, easy peasy. If you're God.

Yes I am agree with you no one can predict bitcoin price. It depend of the market. But I knew some one said that bitcoin lokal price is just following bitcoin internatiol price

Yeah dude I couldn't agree more with you, it is so hard to predict the price of crypto currency precisely. Because there no valid information that we can predict
Besed from that.

i would love to see  your tool and see how it works, especially if you make it open source that would be the best thing.

but it is not possible to make it automated so that the code lets you "scientifically"  and accurately forecast the price. it is already too hard to do it on your own by watching and analyzing the charts on your own.

besides the history is not (real-time market sentiment readings) is not always the most correct thing to use because there are times when a single news can change everything with bitcoin.

also i think you are talking about a very short term prediction kind of thing which is maybe possible rather than a medium term being hardest and long term being the easiest.

They also do this with oil, copper and gold. Trying to predict what is happening by placing the buy and sell numbers in the market. But it is like 50-50 sometimes they are right but mostly not. There are trades that are happening which could not be monitored. That will be your main problem.
How can you monitor every movement that is happening in bitcoin world. Because price relies on that.

The only way I can see how something like that could happen is if you find a legit fortune teller.
Everything else will not work.
How could it? there are too many variables that can change, even in short term. Nobody can foresee the next hack of an exchange, or some economic crisis.
If it was possible I am sure companies would have invented it.

I don`t think it`s possible.

If there was a possibility to predict btc price with 100% accuracy,the whole bitcoin trading will become

pointless.All the speculators will leave the marketplace and sell their bitcoins.

Just use technical and fundamental analysis.

No way to do that unless you successfully complete Einstein's theory of everything  :) Anything less than that would just amount to regular guesswork no different from anybody else's. Also, if you did solve the equation of everything, I very much doubt you would concern yourself with building some puny website because you would literally be a god  ;D

It all depends on market potential. Price of bitcoin depends on many factors like it's demand, total bitcoin in circulation, buyer, seller, and country currency etc. So once cant figure out the demand . At anytime some or the other country could ban use of bitcoin in a particular country so it's definitely not possible to predict the price accurately.

And I don't see the problem is having a relationship with the halving. in this time, wishing you get wrong on your typewriting word.

https://99bitcoins.com/what-will-bitcoin-be-worth-2020/
I think it'll be interesting for you.

Cannot guarantee that everything will be accurate, we all know that the price of the bitcoin can be controlled, when have the control to feel lucky, then they will sell bitcoin then bought it and like it. I think, though profitable, but do bitcoin made a major investment.

Impossible, you need  to understand that it is not possible to foresee every single thing that could make bitcoin change its price in a particular time frame, since most of the factors that affect the price are human factors and humans are not machines that are predictable.

i think its impossible for us to predict accurately with the price because the price is depend on the people in the market and from the news in outside and we can not know what will happen in out there even for one second. so if there is a tools that can do this, then that tools should be an expensive and only few people which can buy that tools and use for their purpose.

Prediction of bitcoin as well other digital currencies is not at all possible. Based upon the growth in user profiles in relation to the support from different countries to regulate bitcoin the price can be predicted. Now for this year we can make a prediction that the price won't fall below $1000 throughout 2017.

I think it is a great idea at the same time a worst one. If we can create a software predicting the price of bitcoin, I think it will greatly help us bitcoin users to earn real money, specially traders.
Though it is a worse idea because predicting the bitcoins price is really impossible. Predicting its price is like telling the future or knowing what might happen tomorrow. I guess there will be instances that speculations sometimes became right though not all of the time.

In my opinion the best tools to predict the bitcoin price are Doji clouds. The logic behind that tool is the logic of how markets behave when having the future long/short contracts that are time based. You open the long/short and you have to adjust to the timeframe making Doji cloud make sense.

Fibonacci retracement is useful prediction tool for bitcoin price but this one is used to measure the fluctuation of prices and its a rather short term.

That's impossible. Nothing in this world can be predicted 100% accurate unless if you can see the future. You can always make a

speculation supported with evidences but it will not be always 100%. Maybe if things got better in the future predicting bitcoin will

not be 50-50 anymore but 70-30 so you will have much chance of predicting right. I suggest that recording significant things like

news and growt everyday or week can be useful since some life events are repetitive.

Yes, only by using a time machine we will be able to predict it accurately.
How we can predict people's mentality and the demand they are going to create. We need some extra power to know the future. As far as I know, it is not impossible as per the ability of current technology. Hence it will not be possible to predict future value of bitcoin 'accurately' but possible to predict approximately.

Many people tend to disagree when it comes to guesstimate about future bitcoin prices, but I'll tell you a secret take the difficulty and add the current price as an equal, then double the difficulty and double the price. for example what was the price when diff was as half as it is now? yeah I'm awesome

I also think it's impossible to predict with total accuracy any currency, commodity or any other thing whose price is determined by free market. Even the most studied and better known things, like gold or dollar have been impossible to foresee with full accuracy, and you are specially ambitious because you want to predict the bitcoin price in short, medium and long term!!!!

Author of that article confirmed that Bitcoin's price cannot be predicted accurately.

Bear in mind - that article was written in mid 2016 (before halving) when price of BTC was $410 at the time of writing.

Later author wrote:  "I’d wager that by 2020 bitcoin will be worth at least $1,000 dollars"

He occluded that article with this vague statement: "BTC  should continue to gain ground".

I doesn't look like accurate prediction to me.

although there are a lot of experienced people who are predicting about the price of bitcoin but still there i no guarantee for that. i think not a single person can give guarantee about their prediction for bitcoin.

That's true, great analyst, bitcoin investors, business people are using bitcoin based on requirements and for investment needs. At the same none can give a exact prediction accurately for the falling hour, everyone just predict this could happen if technology support. So predictions for future accurately with timeline will not be effective.