Bitcoin Forum

All the permabears out there, it's time for you to put your money where your month is,  my proposal goes like this:

1. If the MtGox bitcoin price(or whatever market that is the biggest by then) ever goes to below $10 before GMT 00:00 Jan 1st 2014(I intended to say "never", but obviously it's not a usable deadline), I will pay every bear who bets against me 1 BTC.

2. If the same price doesn't go below $10 before GMT 00:00 Jan 1st 2014, every bear who bets against me have to pay me 1 BTC.

3. Every participant has to be at least a senior member of this forum, the deadline for participation is GMT 00:00 Apr 9th 2013.

Your thoughts?

Thought? You won't be able to pay every one back, but good luck, its a very brave bet

I figure that the money I make off this rally alone would allow me to buy a huge amount of bitcoins if it ever goes below $10, so either way it's no problem for me.

This is extremely unfair. If you lose, your maximum loss is 9.9999USD per bet. If you win, your maximum gain is infinity

whats brave about a bet where if you lose, you pay 10$, if you win, you get 100$? :) it would be brave bordering on stupid to accept it.

But oak, our bears have no money, market raped them repeatedly. Be kind, don't take whatever small money they may have left from them - it's like tricking children into giving you their candy :)

Why all the hoopla, just put a bet up on bitbet - let anybody get in for whatever amount they want.

Yes, that's why I need to pay (the number of bears)*1 BTCs if I lose, and they each only need to pay 1BTC maximum.

That's exactly what I don't want, make a bet just to win a tiny amount.

make the bet <$50 or <$75 and you might have some takers.... maybe even proudhon if he's any btc.

For those who remember how Matthew's 10k BTC (or more? I don't remember) bet went without escrow I encourage you all to use escrow for the bet.

Do you have a link to that bet or any keywords to look for?

There were a few threads:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=102918.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0

He later got a scammer tag but it appears that Theymos took it off, after recently returning he's been trying to come into an agreement with people he was owing money to.

We can sort that out later, but first I need to see people taking the bet.

I don't expect to see any taker, instead I expect the permabears to"bet or shut up".

I bet 100 bitcoins no one takes this bet and wins.

Thanks. Wow what a stupid bet that was. Even assuming he had some reasons to believe in pirate's trustworthiness (which he did not), still idiotic.

I miss hearing warnings about Single Digits.

yes, i remeber the good ol' single digit days. the ones we'll tell our grandchilren about people buying pizzas and soda pops for thousands of bitcoins....

If it ever goes below $10/BTC then I'm buying up 1,000 - 10,000 BTC's, or even 100,000 BTC if price is low enough.

BTC isn't going away.

+1

Same goes for like thousands of other people :)

If nobody learned anything from that prank, that will truly make me sad. Also, this bet is unfair to anyone but the person making it.

@OP: Use bitbet or something. The forum is not an efficient place to do this. I would implore everyone to use a trusted escrow.

How is it unfair?  The bears are SURE value will crash to single digits.  1 BTC for a sure thing is free money.  There is no risk of losing because they are positive value will crash.  Just ask proudhorn.

I don't know about proudhon, but I never said that. I'm sure it will crash, but whenever that is from 190 to 3, 9001 to 100 or 500 to 1 I just don't know.

That's the nature of hyperbolic bubbles you just don't know where it ends.

I see single digits as a possibility, not as a certainty. And I think it's possible that the bottom is extended to 2014, so that we may see single digits but not until next year.

Anyway, the odds do not make sense.

i see god showing up from behind the clouds to say bitcoin is our salvation as a possibility too

Frankly I think many people on this forum are thinking this is going to happen.

You are unusually obnoxious, and registered recently... come on who's sockpuppet are you?

It may sound unfair, but I also take a risk of paying out dearly if the price truly goes below $10, and the number of people betting against me is great.

I remember you said something about BTC $4, LTC $1, and XRP $10 in 2014, not sure how serious you were though.

you are hurting my feelings

How about betting something neutral, like a small gold coin?

Underpants are more neutral than gold coins IMHO.

Yes that were some broad assumptions, I wouldn't bet on it though.

It's not going to go down nearly that much, I would say $25 at the lowest.

Unfair odds, even 100>1 I still wouldn't bet against the op since I agree.

Why don't you agree to pay opposing betters $10 each (in USD) if value travels below $10 before 00:00 GMT Jan 01 2014, and if it doesn't they pay you 1BTC each.

This way you are offering to pay them in the currency they believe to have more value, and they are offering to pay you in the currency you believe will have more value...

If the value of 1BTC is less than $10 (at any point) then they as winners will be cashing out "ahead" (with higher value than 1BTC), if not then you as winner will cash out "ahead" (with whatever value of 1BTC).  ;)

As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.

Ah the "put your money where your mouth is" fallacy. I tried that one with my bet too, but even I know it's bullshit. Some people just don't gamble, or they don't have money.

I wonder why do they keep fooling around in the "Speculation" subforum then... ::)

No, it's a bad bet with limited potential upside and unlimited potential downside. People smart enough to see that BTC is in a bubble are also smart enough to know a stupid bet when they see one. 

The classical definition of a bubble bust is the price plunges lower than where it started, so if you're 99% confident the "bubble" will bust, you must be at least 90% that we'll get back to that price point I suppose? in our case the rally kickstarted at $13.7, $10 is not too far off. And yeah, if you propose to change the target to $15 I am fine, someone get caught in a bubble and still make a 10% profit per year, much higher than almost any bank can give him, are you kidding me?

Yeah, still a ridiculously bad bet that no one would ever take (limited upside and unlimited downside).

If you don't understand that, its not surprising you can't see an obvious bubble.

I don't think Bitcoin is in a bubble, but I have to agree, this is a stupid bet.

As I have stated it's a troll bet after all, designed to give you bears a reality check.

If anything is ridiculous it's you bears' delusion to be able to buy back at low price lol. ;D I see that you're probably too timid to give a target afer all, no surprise, as you have never been able to provide any falsifiable target out of those bubble talks, which are utter rubbish or FUDs for this reason.

And as far as I am concerned, something most certainly in a bubble does not have unlimited potential downside for someone bet against it. ;)