Bitcoin Forum

About time.

Now the interesting question is, at what price level will we see the first major bull trap?

Another idiotic bubble post.

Congratulations OP, you are just as retarded as the others.

Agreed.

sigh just chance to get cheap coins

Something tell me that all the replies to OP above are the bulls that are loosing money...

There certainly are some mad guys who don't see the light even if it shines directly into their eyes.

The good thing about a bursting bubble is that the idiots who contributed to giving bitcoin a bad name by trying to drive its price to the moon are now flushed out of the system.

Interesting questions:

Where will the first big bull trap be?

How fast will the price decline?

How low will the price go?

I guess the bust will take at least 6 months, possibly a year, perhaps even longer.

Losing*

OP is an idiot because he just makes the same post I've seen 9000x without any reasoning.
Must be a bubble therefore it is.

OP must be an idiot, therefore he is.

The most likely thing is that the market won't do what everyone thinks it will. I think it will be a correction, significant, but not 'back to single digits apocolypse'. Suspect we might see a slide back into the 100's, but I think any decline will be short lived as there are still an awful lot of people in the world that need to buy in, and the monetization of bitcoin is far from over.

The fundamentals point to a decline towards some $20. In fact, single digits would not really surprise me either.

I also think that the price decline will take more than 6 months, perhaps more than a year.

I agree that this will not kill bitcoin completely. It does damage to its reputation though.

The sell-off mechanics are interesting to watch. As expected, Mt. Gox cannot cope and now has half an hour lag.

This means that people cannot risk limited sell orders, they have to try to enter unlimited orders to have any chance of selling their rapidly shrinking bitcoins.

This accelerates the slide and makes it even more unpredictable than it already is. I guess it will take quite a while until Mt. Gox can process all pending orders, those pending inside their system and those could not even be entered yet.

The price is going below $200 already, which is an extremely rapid decline.

Which fundamentals?  I'd love to see your calculations, to maybe give a hint at which price I should buy in at.

The trouble with wealth preservation is that bitcoin is based on nothing, except some people on Silk Road, SatoshiDice, etc., who actually need bitcoins to pay for something real.

This means that, if the price sinks, like it does now and will keep doing for a while, save the occasional bull trap, the wealth preservers will observe that their wealth is not preserved. Then they have to sell too, after the speculators have shed their bitcoins.

Bitcoin does not yet have the reputation of gold, unfortunately. That would take many more years.

That said, we cannot be quite certain what the price will do over the next days. Currently we still have a low volume movement. If somebody sold 100,000 bitcoins right now, the price would be at $20. Conversely, a large buy order could catapult the price to $300.

I tend to believe that the bubble has burst today, and we will not see $200+ prices for another year. But, of course, I cannot predict the future with certainty in such a small market that could all too easily be moved by a single order.

most of its value comes from people speculating on future utility. A small fraction comes from present utility.

most annoying thing about bubble is that:
idiots say "BUY bUY buy it will go up", an price goes up, so they are right and look smart
smart people who understand how risky it is, seems to be stupid, because they say it will burst any time, and it is not bursting (yet)
this is very sad state for all reasonable people.
but it dosn't last forever.

now it is time for money to flow in correct direction, from stupid (who buy high and will be forced to sell low) to smart (who buy low, sell high).

i sold at 42usd with huge profit (i know bit too early, i should wait for 100usd), and now i will buy at 15 usd, or maybe 5usd or maybe 1usd. :D

i know some people do not believe yet what they see with their naked eyes. but after we see price dropping every day for next days/weeks, they will finally realize.

I call the bottom at no lower than $115, and a rebound to $220 by tomorrow morning.

Already went down to 109 $..
Mtgox lag is unbearable.. fucking idiots..

OMG, Call Ben Bernanke, the Dollar is going through the roof. He have to start the money press or the DOW will crash and investors fleeing to Asia and Europe..!!!

I agree -- Mt. Gox needs to get their act together.

I had a buy order for $184 x 2 bitcoins.

It got filled since "Cancel" didn't work!

Lol, OP must be new here, doesn't realize that there are 500 other threads exactly like this one spanning the last 2 years.

Every time a big correction happens the weak hands get shaken out, the "OMG BUBBLE JUST BURST, I TOLD YOU SO!" threads get started. Of course now, demand is much higher so rather than a many-month recovery (from the July 2011 peak) we'll get a week tops.

Thanks for the cheap coins, everyone! If anything, the fundamentals show that bitcoin is now resilient to crap like this and your wishful thinking of a 6-month recovery in the double digits is just jealousy of all the people who bought in earlier. Don't be jel-jel that this "huge" bubble bursting made a logarithmically tiny dent in my portfolio and your $262 coins got taken down a notch ;-D. Just take a deep breath and look at the dozens of other recent bear traps - don't do anything silly like eat your leg off to escape; those bears don't make it far.

If you think the "fundamentals" show bitcoin having a limp dick for the next 6 months because of Goxlag, you need to lurk moar.

OK, my first question is already being answered, the one about the first major bull trap. We are in it right now.

The price went a bit lower than donut's prediction:


Ultimately he was wrong, because he predicted a bottom above $115, but the price went somewhat lower. Still his prediction was pretty close to the truth so far.

Let's see whether he will be right with the $220 peak. That is not easy to predict. I tend to think that $220 is a bit on the high side as well, but we have seen bull traps that even slightly exceeded the preceding peak. We will know soon.

It is easy to predict that the price will generally decline for a long time now, i.e. months or even years. What we don't know is how low it will go. I foresee lowest prices around $20, but this depends on future circumstances and therefore evades any precise prediction. The lowest point could still be somewhat above $20, but it could also be a single-digit figure.

I very much agree, except that I think the target is between $20 and $30. We've been through this once before, and it resulted in about a 100% increase over pre-bubble prices, so I think this is a fair estimate. Also, since people are denying that we're in a bubble and that it didn't just pop, that means that we're in a bubble that just popped.

You don't need to be here very long to realise that prices go up, prices go down, and the worst thing you can do is to buy or sell during a panic!

I think we all get burnt once - I know I did - but you soon learn, the price is going up until we run out of people who think it should cost any more!

I wouldn't be surprised if it hits $1000 by the end of the year - but when the rate goes up too quickly, its going to come back down again very quickly, until it reaches the growth rate it can cope with.

Nothing to see here! ;)

I feel bad for all the people who sold (not those who got millions out of it).

If you're not into day trading, there's a single rule to Bitcoins : thou shall not sell, ever, until BTC has reached full potential or is $0.

Everyone who does not adhere to this, is prey.

I only wish I had money in an exchange so I could scoop up cheap coins.

Oh well, there will be a next time.

If it hits $0 you might as well keep your BTC as a souvernier ha.

I do not quite understand what these messages mean. They both seem to agree that I am retarded, but they fail to explain how the posters got to that conclusion.

Why are you digging up this post that is two thirds of a month old? You may very well be a lovely, intelligent person, but this post was annoying because it was one of like 700 'bitcoin going to zero' troll posts that didn't really offer much else to the conversation aside from spreading FUD.

Because there was about 18480447048375626420476290275624 other threads in here that literally said the EXACT SAME THING?

(And it didn't happen, after all, but honestly that is irrelevant to the point stated above.)

Could you provide a link to one of them?

The point about forecasting Bitcoin price is that everybody else will have another opinion, thus easily agreeing that the forecaster must be an idiot.

Seriously, this old-post fishing is getting, erm; old.

The prediction is for a time span of 6 to 12 months, so far the typical time for the price to settle down after a burst bitcoin price bubble.

So until that time has passed, this thread should still be considered relevant.

Yes, we have witnessed 1 burst and the time frame was ~9 Month. Therefore the typical time frame is ~9 Month.

...

Humanity has explored 1 Planet and it contained intelligent live. Therefore the typical Planet contains intelligent live.


Also, this thread never was relevant.

Moving target it would seem.

Let the weak hands sell.

Oh no... Bitcoin's reputation could be damaged?  We're doomed...

necrobumping seems to be all the rage this week.

It beats watching the price.