Bitcoin Forum

I took a peek at the price you would have to pay on the first day of previous years to get a sense of annual growth. I rounded the percentages and found each year to be quite different in growth/loss, with gains dominating. It looks like this year we will have about doubled, but it ain’t over yet.

January 1, 2011 = $0.30
+$0.25 : 500% This is a rough estimate as the 2010 start value was basically 0.

January 1, 2012 = $5.10  
+$4.80 : 1600%

January 1, 2013 = $13.30
+$8.5 : 161%

January 1, 2014 = $801.00
+$787.7 : 5923%

January 1, 2015 =$310.00
-$477.70 : -61%

January 1, 2016 =$430.00
+$120.00 : 39%

January 1, 2017 =$967.00
+$546.00 : 120%

January 1, 2018 =$13546.00
+$12579.00 : 1300%



Total growth from start of 2011 (first reliable market data) until writing this. +$962.70 : 320900%

UPDATED Jan 11, 2018 +$13546.00 : 4515233%  :o
http://i66.tinypic.com/6nz1ad.jpg

I’m not sure if this means anything but I found it interesting.

I think on 1st Jan 2017, price of 1 BTC will be $1000+. I have a friend in Finland. He bought 10 BTC @ around 220, may be on 2015. I am not sure. And He will sell half of his BTC, if price goes above or at 1k per coin. It will be a great pleasure for him and for me as well. I wish I had 1 btc at least.

2016 was the year of stability. It's not possible to know yet what will happen, and it's hard to have a prediction too, but looks bitcoin will become stable more and more, 2017 can be the year that more persons start buying bitcoins and more sites start accepting it, as they want stability.
Investors are looking for a trusted currency, and bitcoin prooved it.

That kind of looks like something I read about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., up 3095% in 3 years from 97c to $31.00. ATH for them was $42.49 (4100% profit WOW). I sure wish I bought up thousands of shares of ACADIA a few years ago but hindsight is 20/20. That's why I always cruse the listings for new releases under a dollar. If you get lucky a thousand dollar investment can make you a millionaire quick.

I think Bitcoin growth would look a lot like Facebook's growth if it was made public from the very beginning. You would see Facebook going from several thousand to hundreds of millions of users.

I am in bitcoin work only from May of this year. And I have never been interested in bitcoin history too much. But I noticed that many places start to accapt bitcoin as payment and I think in next year bitcoin is going to be more spread in this meaning.

I am in bitcoin work only from May of this year. And I have never been interested in bitcoin history too much. But I noticed that many places start to accapt bitcoin as payment and I think in next year bitcoin is going to be more spread in this meaning.

Good job with your research but it is interesting that it is only in 2015 that we have negative growth, alot of people are  projecting $3000/BTC, though time will tell

Thanx and great job on numbers buddy

Thank you for your research. Supposedly, the price won't fall below $700 this year in 2017. The Bitcoin Network is developing further with the introduction of new Altcoins who in turn, support Bitcoin Network unknowingly.

Thank you for the nice summary, it is impressive how bitcoin is growing and growing every year more.

I think at the 1. January 2018 we will see a price over 2.500 Dollar, it can only go up with bitcoin in the future, when you see what is happening backstage.

Thanks everyone for your kind words, it was not that much work. I'm still most surprised at how unique each year turned out. I expected they would mostly show gains, but they vary so much more than I would have guessed. It really shows the boom and bust cycles. I wonder if it will be more stable with mainstream adoption?

I agree with you . throughout this epidemic bitcoin prices fairly stable. only a few times a bitcoin increases and decreases drastically. I think 2016 will be one of the best years bitcoin. year which makes bitcoin increasingly popular among the people of the world.

I do appreciate your work in determining the percentage of growth per year. It's nice to see that Bitcoin is following a similar pattern to most stock release growth charts. I didn't expect that. We all get caught up in the perception that Bitcoin is so unique it defies classification, which of course isn't true.

With stocks you see a rapid increase in the first few years as a company gains traction in their respective market. Thousands of percent increases are not uncommon because the value of the shares are going from pennies to large dollar amounts. After the first few years it becomes almost impossible for any stock to give a thousand percent increase because the dollar amount necessary is just too far out of reach. For example, at a starting price of $900 Bitcoin would need to grow to $53,307 to gain another 5923% increase as it did in 2014. That means an individual trading in "shares" of Bitcoin will need to pay $53,307 for just one. Even the most wealthy, and foolhardy, investors will do a double take on that one. While insane gains are no longer realistic smaller gains are still impressive. From this point forward, I fully expect Bitcoin to stay in the normal growth range for a mature stock.

All very good points!
And at the same time the supply is increasing assuming new coins remain available for circulation.
Here is some more fun with math to make your point. It take an ever increasing amount of capitol to move the price up by the same percentage.  


Date                           Market cap                 Price                Supply
January 4, 2015    -     $ 3,856,200,918         $ 281.79           13,684,794    

So in this year it took  $2,631,749,890 to go up 53% or about $49,655,658 pr percentage point.

January 3, 2016    -     $ 6,487,950,808         $ 431.45           15,037,467

Over about the next year it took $7,627,735,314 to go up 104% or about $73,343,609 per percentage point.

December 25, 2016 - $14,115,686,122    $878.81           16,062,338



 Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/

I'm really surprised we didn't ever see a correction. I mean there has been some ups and downs of about $20 or so but that's just every day in bitcoins land. It looks like we'll be pretty steady for the new year!

That true and great to see. It seems like it would be disheartening because the ridiculous profits are gone forever but it's just the opposite for me. I see the huge increases in price as proof that people are still interested in Bitcoin. A huge amount of money needs to be chasing Bitcoin for small percentage changes now and that's reassuring for a long term investor.

I've decided to do a stepped selloff of my holdings as I do with any investment but I'll never sell all of them for fear that bitcoin will never stop growing. I don't expect to live long enough to see $50k bitcoins but fully expect to see $3-$5k bitcoins.

A premature conclusion, perhaps. Why?

15.6 bil is not a large stock, more like a midcap, plus the comparison should be (in my opinion) to currencies and/or asset classes (stocks, bonds, RE, precious metals). Precious metals are one of the smallest asset classes with total value at $7-8 trillions.
$1 tril for bitcoin is quite possible if it gets 15% of gold value eventually. It would still be miniscule in comparison with the other asset classes.
Two funds (10bil size) already wanted to buy 30-50K bitcoins ea offmarket. They were refused, hence they, presumably, had to go to exchanges, resulting in the recent $800-970 pop. There are MANY funds MUCH larger in size.
I would be disappointed if bitcoin (or crypto as a whole) does not make it to $40-50K within a decade.

Stability, lol.  We were stuck at $420 for months, and most everyone here was bitching about stagnation.  Then we popped to more than double that to where we are now.  How is that a year of stability?  Bitcoin is not a 'safe haven' asset and people who flee to safety don't buy anything crypto-related.  You'd be hard-pressed to call bitcoin safe.  It's highly volatile and speculative.

That's to say I expect Bitcoin to stay between 15-25% and -15-25% growth as any mature stock would. Bitcoin does have a small cap compared to market leaders but even small and mid sized corporate stocks follow the same movement patterns when mature. I think an expectation of continued 5000% growth for any mature asset inside of a decade is very wishful thinking. I can't name one that's done it and I've been investing in various markets from real estate to common stocks to precious metals for 40 years. I'm probably one of the only people you will ever talk to in your life that actually invested in the Chicago pork belly futures market. I've always love the extreme and bitcoin is definitely extreme.

Well, Apple (AAPL) was definitely mature in 1996 (after two decades of listing), yet it went from the low of 0.48 in Dec 1997 (split adjusted) to 28.30 (split adjusted) in Dec 2007, which is 5796% within a decade. I grant you that it is a rare case, but....it exists.

Very true.  ;) Wait for the crash to buy, expecting continued rise defies every bitcoin price push on record.

Yeah, I've never met anyone that doesn't look back at Apple or Microsoft and kick themselves. Those are once in a lifetime opportunities. As far as I'm concerned those don't count because they're investing flukes.

All I want to add to the subject is a question.

Do you guys realy believe its intelectualy honest to count a market cap on a hugely growing price and in a market of hodlers? Do you realy believe there is so much money on the market? By the money I mean liquidity. I would say no, I dont think so. But suit yourself.

I don't quite get this philosophy..not counting MSFT, Dell, AAPL, AMZN, private google, private facebook.
As far as i am concerned, bitcoin is one of these "flukes".
I get it that it is difficult to stay in the saddle. I invested in AAPL in 1997, sold in late 2000 just before the recession (after the split) and felt very smug when it cratered 70% or more. The only problem is, I never bought it back.
It could have been truly sweet, like about $4mil from the initial $15-17K, if my calcs are correct  ;).
With bitcoin I decided to keep the bulk for, hopefully, a long time and see what happens.

I don't think the distribution is as good as certain people think. Certainly several market movements, in the last year, were the result of coordinated manipulation.

Howerver, I don't think everything in this market is a result of manipulation. It is possible to see Bitcoin being used by a large number of people, there are several reports of people who have succeeded opening a business that uses Bitcoin. In addition, in some countries the local currency has a lot of problems, and people have even restrictions to send money out of the country. In these countries Bitcoin can and does solve the problem of many people, so there is real demand and there is liquidity.

Of course Bitcoin is one of the flukes. Just like the others you listed. Some kind of inside info is required to invest at the right time to gain the ridiculous profits of 5000+%. If you happened to be a drug dealer using Silk Road or a member of the cypherpunk mailing list in February 2011 then you might have been able to buy up thousands of btc for less than a dollar each. Funny that you use Dell as an example because it was the same thing. If you happened to be hanging out with Michael Dell in his dorm room as a freshman at the University of Texas and saw his amazing vision when he started PCs Limited then you could have been at the start of one of the market superstars. Most investors aren't that lucky. They don't have access to inside information with enough time to invest and hold or the wisdom to dump when it time. For example, if you were still holding Dell common stock when they privatized in 2013 you lost 90% of your profit and had to accept a token buy out at $13.88 which was only slightly above its IPO of $8.50.

Bits going to go to the moon but before getting there , there are going to be many ups and downs but we can benefit and profit over the volitile nature of bitcoin.

It seems a lot of people is big in the pharmaceuticals game nowadays... they are searching for the next big hit, kinda like altcoin hunters searching for the next huge pump.... but that's the thing. Can you really compare ACADIA with Bitcoin in terms of what it actually is? What did ACADIA do so revolutionizing to deliver 3095% gains?

I can write a book on how important bitcoin is, how unique it is, and how undervalued it still is, but I would have a hard time explaining why ACADIA blew up other than supply and demand antics. I would like to know tho.

Do you know any other stocks that you percieve to be really undervalued? If I knew about bitcoin back then, I would have bought for sure, because of its unique features, but right now, I can't find anything as exciting as bitcoin, not even in altcoins, that would deliver big profits in the future with a reasonable expectation (anything can blow up but that just winning the lottery, is not proper investing, in other words studying the asset and deciding its undervalued then buying it).

I think 2016 was so so year in bitcoin history. Noting really progressive happened. Just if to not count that fact that exactly in that year I joined to bitcoin world  :)

Normally I wouldn't give tips for fear of oversaturation but I don't think that will happen with this one because it requires some research and leg work. Here's my tip.

Nevada just legalized marijuana in November. The state legislature said it was going to take a year (until 2018) to prepare to license stores to sell marijuana. It's believed that some of the same investors that opened the Colorado dispensaries are planning to look for backers and expand to Nevada. If you could contact a couple of them and make an investment offer I think the short term return on your investment would be substantial. The good news is Nevada is only planning on licensing a few of them, a couple in Reno and maybe a half dozen in Las Vegas. That will create a closed market where you don't have to worry about new entrants to the market diluting the profit. There's a medical dispensary chain that sells the controversial "Charlotte's Web" and "Harlequin" strains that's said to cure seizures in children. They intend on opening retail outlets in every state that legalizes. If you do some research I'm sure you can find and call them. They were also planning on releasing an IPO to fund their expansion.

Funny, i did invest quite a bit in ACAD at $1.3-1.6. The best single play of my ret account.
Don't get jealous as I also lost quite a bit of money on other small biotechs, especially last year when several of them failed clinical trials.
You have to be very very disciplined and diversified with small biotechs.
I can write a few paragraphs as to why ACAD was such a great play then, but who cares, that oppt is gone.

This is the kind of thread that I've been looking for. Are we able to get the OP updated for this year RodeoX?

Sure thing. I have updated the original post.

With over half of the year gone I'm thinking we might see some red for January 1st, 2019. I'd better HODL a little tighter and try to scrounge up as much as I can.