Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Stylus on April 12, 2013, 01:01:06 AM



Title: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Stylus on April 12, 2013, 01:01:06 AM
Will the sell-off continue or did most people find other avenues to sell in the last 12 hours?


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: RandomQ on April 12, 2013, 01:03:03 AM
Down to $100 bounce to $150


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Rafa7 on April 12, 2013, 01:03:15 AM
http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/celebrate.gif


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: penetration on April 12, 2013, 01:04:11 AM
Down to 50 or below. Crash still needs to level out, majority of people will want to panic sell.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Inedible on April 12, 2013, 01:04:56 AM
Everyone sells their Bitcoin.

The value plumets to negative values.

Investor-noobs go insane and start mass riots.

The world economy collapses and the zombie apocalypse is finally realised.

Mt. Gox starts trading in rifles, ammo and food... due to incompetence they lose everyone's resources...


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: BitcoinGirl325 on April 12, 2013, 01:06:22 AM
It will probably crash well below $100, probably in the range of $20-50.

This is how the mainstream press is viewing this event:
http://www.naturalnews.com/039880_bitcoin_bubble_panic_selling_accounts_frozen.html

Quote from the article:
"Bitcoin is now officially a failed experiment."


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: dontek on April 12, 2013, 01:06:36 AM
Everyone sells their Bitcoin.

The value plumets to negative values.

Investor-noobs go insane and start mass riots.

The world economy collapses and the zombie apocalypse is finally realised.

Mt. Gox starts trading in rifles, ammo and food... due to incompetence they lose everyone's resources...

Best prediction ever.

/Close Thread


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: CoinMan on April 12, 2013, 01:06:47 AM
People have been "Goxed" again!  I predict a bottoming out at $50 however Mt Gox will pull the plug at $70 and blame it on a technical glitch this time.

Should you listen to me?  Of course not!

CoinMan



Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: justusranvier on April 12, 2013, 01:07:33 AM
Quote from the article:
"Bitcoin is now officially a failed experiment."
Awesome. That ranks right up there with Wired adding Bitcoin to the 2012 "Expired" list.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Ichthyo on April 12, 2013, 01:08:47 AM
lets better put it this way:

first swallow up the bids which are still there, so move down.
Then probably high API lag again, causing the downward move to terminate at a point which is absolutely arbitrary and meaningless.
Next bounce back up when the buy orders hit the head of the engine queue. Again the top value is arbitrary and meaningless.

Then, after matters cool down, the real action starts. My personal bet is it will be headed first a bit below $100. But from this point up, we should not try to make predicitions, since psychology isn't predictable.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: proudhon on April 12, 2013, 01:10:26 AM
Everything will go smoothly.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Mike Christ on April 12, 2013, 01:10:43 AM
Everyone sells their Bitcoin.

The value plumets to negative values.

Investor-noobs go insane and start mass riots.

The world economy collapses and the zombie apocalypse is finally realised.

Mt. Gox starts trading in rifles, ammo and food... due to incompetence they lose everyone's resources...

I found this hilarious.  Thank you sir.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: WiseOldOwl on April 12, 2013, 01:11:26 AM
^^ +1 I laughed too,



Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Pangia on April 12, 2013, 01:12:07 AM
Well, there is allegedly thousands of new accounts (cause of the trade engine failure), so perhaps these new account holders will buy up the coins at the low prices causing a run-up.

OR

Those that acquired the coins at a higher price will want to take their lumps and walk away (sell).

Ultimately, unless we get another DDoS or other form of manipulation, the market will decide.

I'm making coffee right now for the fireworks.



Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 01:16:15 AM
Everything will go smoothly.

Thats all the confirm i need.  Mt Gox will trade for 10 minutes and then lag, then sell off, then suspend trading.

What kind of dbase upgrade could they have done in 12 hours.  Swapped out the mechanical to ssd in their raid array? (As if they should have done this already)

Thoughts?  Was the dbase access the bottleneck?  Did they have the trading front end running on the same box as the dbase?  (As if they shouldn't have put that into 2 boxes already).

Maybe they went out and bot those PCIe Ram Disk cards?  (With 500K/day of revenue, shouldn't they have done that already).

The fact that they CAN upgrade the dbase in 12 hours scares me to begin with!

IT guys thoughts?


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 01:19:34 AM
price just changed btw...now 127...how can that be if there is no trading...

Oh man their setup is such crap, its like a monet, the more you look at it the more of a mess you see.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 01:21:11 AM
oh btw, whats gox's policy on num of confirms?  Sending in da coins in case of a big run.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Stunna on April 12, 2013, 01:22:22 AM
chaos is my only prediction.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: knybe on April 12, 2013, 01:23:50 AM
It will probably crash well below $100, probably in the range of $20-50.

This is how the mainstream press is viewing this event:
http://www.naturalnews.com/039880_bitcoin_bubble_panic_selling_accounts_frozen.html

Quote from the article:
"Bitcoin is now officially a failed experiment."

naturalnews is mainstream media? humph... news to me.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Crs on April 12, 2013, 01:25:32 AM
Price will fall to 40 and after that will climb back to ~ 200 $ in the next 24h if we don't get hit by the lag again.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: superduh on April 12, 2013, 01:26:13 AM
mtgox.. is reopening slowly.
guess what.!!
still plenty of .01 btc trades going through. what is wrong with gox


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: superduh on April 12, 2013, 01:27:12 AM
disable ALL APIS please for the next 24 hours
but does gox ever listen


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: ShireSilver on April 12, 2013, 01:30:50 AM
Did they have the trading front end running on the same box as the dbase?  (As if they shouldn't have put that into 2 boxes already).

Maybe they went out and bot those PCIe Ram Disk cards?  (With 500K/day of revenue, shouldn't they have done that already).

The fact that they CAN upgrade the dbase in 12 hours scares me to begin with!

IT guys thoughts?

I thought I saw on another thread that yes, they did have the front end and the DB on the same box. Moving the DB to another machine *should* be a trivial task, but when dealing with mission critical components making sure it all works properly means caution and testing.

If the database upgrade is a simple swap for more power (better CPUs, more RAM, faster drives) then yes it can be done in 12 hours.

[12 years as a programmer, with the last 5 of them working on a large web platform.]


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: tickets on April 12, 2013, 01:33:41 AM
well, it's trading between 55 and 80 right now on various other exchanges....  so there would be an arb opportunity to sell if the gox bids were significantly higher than say 70, and buy back on other exchanges for short profit.    The arb-bots and arb-traders should have some fun here.

MtGox's posted reason for halting trade was  "to allow the market to cooldown following the drop in price"... they later said they would be upgrading their db servers.

To me, this says they were trying to support the price much as trading curbs kick in on NYSE during a crash.

There could be some surprises on the order book also. Remember things are very different now than after the first bitcoin bubble pop, with VC and other investors indicating interest.  If you're a VC and ready to buy bitcoin at 200, are you going to lose interest in buying it below 100?  

The Vinklevii twins announced (around 2pm?) they are major backers of bitcoin, and said they're buying the  dip...

I wouldn't doubt that during the halt, some phone calls were made, and buyers solicited to prop up the price.

I wouldn't be surprised to see big bids supporting price at major levels, say $60...  

Finally, there should be heavy load and wild swings for a while. At some point it will be clear whether the new db can handle the load, after which the lag will diminish, and prices will stabilize after a classic consolidation triangle pattern.

Which brings us to tomorrow, and next week.

There are 15k users backlog in the mtgox verification queue.  Most of these represent small time speculators or investors who were eager to buy at $200.   Some of these will chicken out... but they don't already hold coins.  Others will see the dip as an opportunity and go ahead with their buying.   But overall, there will still be people standing in line to buy, which should begin price rising again....

How's that for a guess?



Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Malawi on April 12, 2013, 01:34:07 AM
Everything will go smoothly.

Thats all the confirm i need.  Mt Gox will trade for 10 minutes and then lag, then sell off, then suspend trading.

What kind of dbase upgrade could they have done in 12 hours.  Swapped out the mechanical to ssd in their raid array? (As if they should have done this already)

Thoughts?  Was the dbase access the bottleneck?  Did they have the trading front end running on the same box as the dbase?  (As if they shouldn't have put that into 2 boxes already).

Maybe they went out and bot those PCIe Ram Disk cards?  (With 500K/day of revenue, shouldn't they have done that already).

The fact that they CAN upgrade the dbase in 12 hours scares me to begin with!

IT guys thoughts?

They are probably rushing in more hardware and possibly bandwith.

It's really something you down wanna do while systems are running at full capacity, as it can easily introduce errors.

If they actually have used only one machine, the trading software is likely to be designed for that. If so - my bet would be that they have brought in a new machine that can handle a lot more traffic.

Best case scenario would be that they have a system that is scalable, and that they just needed some time for installment/testing.
Guess they can afford a blade-stack by now.:-)


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Wuji on April 12, 2013, 01:37:40 AM
Opening around $80 and then down under $50 tomorrow with more wild fluctuations throughout the day.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 01:37:51 AM
Did they have the trading front end running on the same box as the dbase?  (As if they shouldn't have put that into 2 boxes already).

Maybe they went out and bot those PCIe Ram Disk cards?  (With 500K/day of revenue, shouldn't they have done that already).

The fact that they CAN upgrade the dbase in 12 hours scares me to begin with!

IT guys thoughts?

I thought I saw on another thread that yes, they did have the front end and the DB on the same box. Moving the DB to another machine *should* be a trivial task, but when dealing with mission critical components making sure it all works properly means caution and testing.

If the database upgrade is a simple swap for more power (better CPUs, more RAM, faster drives) then yes it can be done in 12 hours.

[12 years as a programmer, with the last 5 of them working on a large web platform.]

Shouldn't it be as trivial as installing the same dbase server software package on the new machine, popping 10 gigbit enet cards in there, pluggin it into your router and then changing one line of code that contains the address of the server?

I did a complex street algo in SAS and MSSQL that processed millions of records, you never knew when the half dozen or so dbases i'd submit queries/updates to would move to a new address.   So you write the fucker "high Level" .  I queried a local table for the address of each dbase i would hit, as even some times the dbases themselves moved to different servers while some stayed.

Maybe i oversimplify, thats probably not how it queries.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: smoothie on April 12, 2013, 01:38:46 AM
PREDICTION: LAG LAG FAG LAG


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: yocko06 on April 12, 2013, 01:40:43 AM
I hope it hits $1. Then I will buy all the bitcoins I can


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: superduh on April 12, 2013, 01:41:06 AM
large purchases coming in at 129.. what a good day for people to arbitrage if they could


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 01:41:25 AM
And it was really fun when the dumbass systems guys set up the new server and when migrating the dbase changed the schema.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: crazy_rabbit on April 12, 2013, 01:42:14 AM
the forum lags the heck out so we can't keep each other company.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Dr.Steve on April 12, 2013, 01:42:45 AM
price will rise
price will fall

rinse and repeat


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: iCEBREAKER on April 12, 2013, 01:43:32 AM
chaos is my only prediction.
^ ^ ^

http://i.imgur.com/YSbcXR3.jpg


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: justusranvier on April 12, 2013, 01:43:48 AM
One would hope they had improvements ready to go for a while, but were just waiting for a chance to halt trading in order to make changes which could not easily be done while operating, like moving the trading engine to a separate machine from the web server and reconfiguring various monolithic components to be setup for failover/replication.

That's just hope though. My current expectation is that it will be a clusterfuck but I'd like to be pleasantly surprised.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: thoughtfan on April 12, 2013, 01:46:14 AM
It will probably crash well below $100, probably in the range of $20-50.

This is how the mainstream press is viewing this event:
http://www.naturalnews.com/039880_bitcoin_bubble_panic_selling_accounts_frozen.html

Quote from the article:
"Bitcoin is now officially a failed experiment."

naturalnews is mainstream media? humph... news to me.
I was thinking that.  Some mainstream might have the same overall message but that reads like amateur journalism.  The 'officially a failed experiment' bit illustrates more than anything the writer's thinking if a statement is made emphatically enough it makes it true  ;D


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: crazy_rabbit on April 12, 2013, 01:47:11 AM
Whomever has been running the DDOs in the past has their botnet on a clockwatch.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: proudhon on April 12, 2013, 01:49:13 AM
price will rise
price will fall

http://i50.tinypic.com/m7vic.jpg


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: nandika on April 12, 2013, 01:49:20 AM
my prediction is that they will get soo much traffic, so many refreshes, they won't be able to handle it...


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 01:49:27 AM
...and reconfiguring various monolithic components to be setup for failover/replication.

Failover?!?!  Redundancy!?!?  Dude this is GOX we're talking about.  The company that sits there and opens up thousands of accounts without knowing whether their platform can even handle it!


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: iCEBREAKER on April 12, 2013, 01:50:00 AM
Quote from the article:
"Bitcoin is now officially a failed experiment."

Natural News is not MSM.  It's usually better than them.  Bitcoin is outside of their area of expertise, so I'll forgive them for this:

http://i.imgur.com/CcHHo6s.jpg


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Wuji on April 12, 2013, 01:50:10 AM

How did you get a picture of the new trading engine being put in place?  ;D


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: gradient vector on April 12, 2013, 01:51:25 AM

Quote from the article:
"Bitcoin is now officially a failed experiment."

Funny. Let them think what they want.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: tickets on April 12, 2013, 01:51:47 AM
What's the opportunity here for a team from some NASDAQ or Forex trading house to clone their server /orderbook system and spawn a competitor to mtGox that is already hardened and instantly a stable, fast exchange with acceptable order-entry and trading tools?



Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: proudhon on April 12, 2013, 01:52:23 AM
I seriously so excited to watch the continuation of the crash in real time.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Zaih on April 12, 2013, 01:53:28 AM
I think we're in for a bumpy ride. I predict we'll end up back where we were soon though.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Aztec on April 12, 2013, 01:55:11 AM
I think people will buy and it will be back up to around $150


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: adamstgBit on April 12, 2013, 01:56:09 AM
has gox said anything about reopening? 3 mins left....


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: giarc on April 12, 2013, 01:56:53 AM
I seriously so excited to watch the continuation of the crash in real time.

What a rare opportunity... very exciting.

Hope to many people haven't over leveraged tho it may be brutal.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: giarc on April 12, 2013, 01:57:40 AM
1 minute!!!!


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: byronbb on April 12, 2013, 01:58:33 AM
CaVirtex and btce in mid-90s....


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Malawi on April 12, 2013, 01:59:07 AM
Will it be this
http://c534909.r9.cf2.rackcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Zombie-Bear-10.jpg

or this?
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSGaQAePErj8nIkv-ad9Kphqj7uT0SG9fZG2SnHvHxWwINrfYmd


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: giarc on April 12, 2013, 01:59:12 AM
Just wondered are any of the charting apps gonna work if they have changed there servers about?


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 01:59:39 AM
Gox already lagging


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Malawi on April 12, 2013, 02:00:18 AM
504 Gateway Time-out


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: byronbb on April 12, 2013, 02:01:00 AM
Mtgox trading engine lag: 117.17s


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: giarc on April 12, 2013, 02:01:10 AM
Gox already lagging


My money will be leaving gox as soon as reasonably possible.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: jp on April 12, 2013, 02:01:21 AM
Shit, can't even get on. Can anyone else?


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: HappyBitCoinUser on April 12, 2013, 02:02:24 AM
I've I were at a Movie Theater waiting for 02:00 to see the movie, I'd be demanding my money back about now...


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: dree12 on April 12, 2013, 02:02:29 AM
Crash just happened. 99.66


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: giarc on April 12, 2013, 02:03:01 AM
Shit, can't even get on. Can anyone else?

Im in market already down to $90 $78, seems predictions of influx of buyers was overly optimistic.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: jg on April 12, 2013, 02:03:42 AM
78.05 here
Make that $65.50


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 02:05:45 AM
i closed it...if you ain't gonna trade right away don't refresh it...  Let the needy have their server time!


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: giarc on April 12, 2013, 02:08:00 AM
am i the only one getting lag, loads up easy but price doesn't seem to move smoothly.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: boscorocks on April 12, 2013, 02:10:04 AM
Over 6 minutes lag in the first 11 minutes. Wonder how many hours before it shuts down again. Well I got my beer ready to watch the big game.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 02:14:01 AM
Web server new box fo sho...but how dat dbase upgrade working out wit 5 min lag? AHHAHAHAHAH!  GOX, you almost had me there!  U so CRAZY! I think i wanna have yo baby!


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: jg on April 12, 2013, 02:24:27 AM
To be honest, I'm not sure they upgraded anything.

This is ridiculous.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: dazzle on April 12, 2013, 02:27:00 AM
Mt gox is earning bitcoins.


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: doobadoo on April 12, 2013, 02:27:46 AM
Mt gox is earning bitcoins.

No they're not, commish free trading!


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: GeniuSxBoY on April 12, 2013, 02:29:54 AM
http://www.metrocast.net/~sbeau1/cant_see_sht_captain.jpg


Title: Re: Mt. Gox reopens in 1 hour. Predictions?
Post by: Wuji on April 12, 2013, 02:31:07 AM
Opening around $80 and then down under $50 tomorrow with more wild fluctuations throughout the day.

I got the around $80 part right now I can't wait to see what happens tomorrow.