Bitcoin Forum

You guys have no idea how bad I am feeling right now.

How many Bitcoins?

This is why I don't try to outsmart the market. I only end up outsmarting myself.

Buying, holding, using and promoting. <--- My plan

Never call the top. Never call the bottom.

Hold.

Pick a number. Rise watch repeat.

You still have time to prove you sell at the right price.

I sold at 3 in 2011  :'(

Think of it this way : if you buy back at price X, it's like if you had bought at price X*X/57. eg now at 80, you need the price to reach 112 to break even.

Lessons learned the hard way... when in doubt, stay out.

i have a very good idea :)

I bought coins from $3 to $200.
You can imagine that it wasn't a few coins.

If you are going to sell. Sell in small increments over time. Not all at once.

If you average your price over months you will get a better deal more than likely.

Set a buy order at $70 perhaps? The chance it does not hit $70 this or next week at all is small. It will most likely go lower than $70 if it hits $70 but you got to hold after that, because after a year it will go above $70, but its a long game.

If you lost because you were trying to day trade, be-careful day trading them back. If you tilt that's when you lose money.

First of all, $70 will be tested at some point, I think you could get some at $76 today.

That's not much of a slip in the long-term.

You KNOW where the market is headed from here right?

I've made worse screw-ups but have doubled my bitcoins in the last few days.

That is what I am doing.

I didn't double but I gained about 15 day trading, I sent the coins out of the exchange now though, its taking too much time away from assignments.

Don't think you have the first idea what you are talking about.

I've been buying and selling all the way up and down. I lost a bit on the big slump but I've been trading from 60-80 for the past 48hrs and have recouped back half of my losses thus far.

So your analysis and conclusion makes no sense.

selling at $57 was really stupid and if you really don't know what you're doing then you're better off out of Bitcoin. That's the whole thing with the crash, get rid of weak hands.

Yes but every position increases your risk. So for some (most) people it's just better to hold.

I would just wait for now.
My guess is that it will continue trading around this price now.
Maybe it will dip below $57 again.

this isn't as much of a winning strategy as it is a hedging strategy. say you're going long: you can dollar cost average all you want, but you won't be able to consistently get a better price than your first price. however, you're more likely to get a better price if your first price is higher-than-average.

The original poster of this thread sold at $57. If he had held, he would be better off right now.

Sometimes people get it right, congratulations. Sometimes people get it wrong, and there should be no shame attached. But the average of both cases is what you get when you hold.

I would rather have average returns than risk them for more, and get less. It comes down to how you want to play the game. I've been playing since I was eleven, and I've never lost.

Thanks for the advice guys.
I just put in a buy order at $76. Please tell me this isn't a bad idea?

I'm looking to buy some around that price too.

You should ask yourself why you decided to sell. You say you bought some of them at 2$. That indicates you have been here for a while, at least longer than I have.

Did you somehow stop believing in the future of Bitcoin? Was it just a panic atac? Try to pinpoint the feelings that triggered your decision and make a mental note of them, and be alert next time those thoughts come into your brain.

what is this "sell" you speak of, sir?  ;D

Never met him.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VjBLDVxDIbc/UGKfsfOdqdI/AAAAAAAAC6Y/yqD4rVfu9Nc/s1600/0%2520bull%2520market.jpg

At least I can consider the money lost a part of my financial education :)

edit: maybe i should try to recover my losses with satoshi dice?

you are posting in this subforum, so, i assume you also read the postings here.
summary: always buy, almost never sell, in doubt: hold hold hold.
(unless you are awkward, then we'll make a youtube video for you -> http://youtu.be/A7TuFy0fcuw
ad SD: the odds are always against you. that's a no-brainer. if you still play, only play once with the max you would spend.

For the longest time (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG1qooBzE2w)

Buy high, sell low, gamble what's left on satoshi dice. What could possibly go wrong?

We desperately need more day traders with deep pockets. They could smooth out this volatility, and the speculators with the slightly better crystal balls could make a huge profit in this type of market.

Unfortunately, I do.

Well, uh, *cough* you could always buy back in. *cough*

its already too late. we're breaking out.. was trying to tell you guys (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178781.0) earlier...

instead of posting in this forum about it you could have just bought back in, now you're hoping for $76 which i very much doubt will happen, and so you'll have to come up with a plan C. My advice is to buy back at anything under $100 and in two weeks you'll be thinking how lucky you were to get back in under that price. Double digits will be long gone very soon.

OH SHIT TIME TO BUY AT MARKET PRICES

"now you're hoping for $76 which i very much doubt will happen"

I can't stop laughing.

Uh oh. I just bought back in at $90.

I did win 0.1 btc in satoshi dice though. Maybe I should play with a full coin on 30%.

Ouch.  Set a limit buy at 65 and go away from the computer.

when it was reaching the 50ies i started to get nervous. i was actually waiting for it to go down in order to buy cheap (several k fiat waiting at the account) but when it went THAT deep i started thinking i should sell ALL AT ONCE before it collapses.

i logged into gox.

and bought. ::)

it feels bad to lose fiat. but much worse it feels to lose btc.

if you know what i am talking about you are a believer in btc.

I'm afraid of putting more $ in Mt Gox.
Let's hope BTC doesn't start falling right now.

This.  I've made 50% more Bitcoins in the past few days but I'm neglecting my work.  Argh!

Why not play 100 times 0.01? And quit if you get over 1 Bitcoin...

I'm gonna guess that the same luck that means you sell at $57 and not buy back in before $90 is the same sort of luck that leads people to buy at $260. If you think you can 'call the top' by all means- help yourself.

Oh wow! Gatekeeper deleted his post after calling me an idiot and the price dropped to $87. Friendly advice: don't go all panicky Gatekeeper selling your $98 BTC just yet, we'll get back up there.

And oh yes. I'm laughing it up.

$98, how did I miss that? I put a sell order in at $100. ;_;

anyone here has done mistakes concerning btc. there are so many possiblities, and having not taken most of them feels like a mistake also. we should credit the guy for sharing this with us. what he did could have been just the right thing, but it wasn´t. it can happen to anyone of us.  we should establish a respectful discussion on mistakes like this one. 

I sold one hundred at 27$ not a long time ago. That's worst when you see them scale up to 266$  ;D  ;D

Seems like the 90's were a double top! 5K Sell Wall at 92.
Sell, Sell, Sell! Buy back at 70 and profit!

What wall?

were you able to buy some in the 50ies..? 

Indeed it's gone, someone playing with walls and immediately pulling them.
Still I'm not convinced on it breaking 100.

I had a limit order in about 0.01 lower than it went...
And another in at 40.

ouch.

Yes.  :D

so half the pain is gone ! it worked well for you...

It's still all completely proportionate. You're just spreading your risk I guess..

I sold 150 at 7... lost 50 on bitcoinica, and lost 40 on satoshidice...

I hate myself...

Why do people panic sell bitcoin? jesus christ

Also, it will probably never go below 30-40

Just buy all the BTC with your $ asap

I'm just waiting to go below $65 before buying back what I accidentally sold.
I went to sleep and forgot I had a sell order at $75. Bad wake up finding my coins gone :(
Now I hope for a little dip to $60 or below and I can get rid of those nasty dollars waiting there :D

If It goes to 60$ or lower I'm going all in. Right now I don't have coins again.  ;D  ;D
I just feel bad without bitcoins, so I will buy them, put in cold storage, and stop staring at the chart 24 hours a day.

I bought bitcoins twice: first time for $4.5 second time for $11 in last december. And I would not sell it untill $500 for BTC because after popularisation their price will grow up dramatically.

That's an understatement. It's used by people all over the world, if it gets to just 1% usage the price of a single bit coin could go up to 10k, and considering the state of fiat currencies today, an alternative could become very appealing to a lot of people.

 
I sell/trade at various points because it lets me buy shit that my wife wouldn't agree to let me use "real" money with.  Such as an AR-15, paintball gear, silver bars, kick-ass computer equipment, etc, etc.   So don't feel bad. :)
 
My range of trading has been as low as me selling at $5 and as high as selling at $50.
 
I value tangible objects, but this current roller-coaster ride has me in a holding pattern at the moment.

I just thought I would add this little nugget I learnt from being a futures trader and adviser for 20 years..

80% of the people whole trade lose money
10% break even
5% make money
5% make good money

Every single trader believes they will "make good money".

I've almost quadruple my investment... so I can say I made good money... lol

THIS! I sold 20 BTC from 30$ to 100$, and I totally don't feel bad because:

1) If BTC goes below 50$ I can buy at gain = I don't mind BTC crashing.
2) If BTC goes above 100$ my remaining BTC are worth more = I don't mind BTC bubbling.

Win-Win sort of.

The important is the revolution of the mind (the technology), greed is just sad!


Yes

I sold at 65 last night...  bought back in at 94 today.  lost 600 bucks.  I feel like shit, that was about 1/4 my total savings.  all this after coming up from 20 to 21.5 btc.  now i have 14.

We still have the weekend dip coming. If it does not rise too much today and tomorrow it may come back to the 80s or so.

lol no mercy

i'm too late for that.

I like this thread.  ---Even though I have some suspicion that the OP is just trollin'...

BUT - for the purposes of this thread - I have suspended my automatic response that everyone on the internet lies.

Soooo, I thought I'd tell my story of failure during the first bubble. Perhaps the OP can take some solace from the tale. I'd like to title it:



"A Short History of Woe and Enlightenment"

I first heard about bitcoin around late March 2011 - shortly after the Fukushima incident. (*footnote* - I personally was 100% completely asleep until this moment. I probably still would be if I didn't have friends who were living in Japan at the time. This caused me to start looking into things and realizing that the world was not as I had imagined)

Even though I'm kind of a hardware geek, I still didn't really get into bitcoin at that time (first mistake) - It wasn't until bitcoin hit 2, then 3, then 4+ that I actually looked into mining. I already had a 5850, but as the price continued to climb, I bought more and more hardware. As the price continued to rise, I was hooked. I started telling everyone I knew about how cool bitcoin was. (second mistake)

And then the collapse, and that infamous string of unfortunate incidents and bad press. My friends all thought I was a fool. I didn't sell on the way up, I didn't sell on the way down. I told myself that this thing I had discovered was real, that it did have value. I refused to sell for anything less than 30. "Once it recovers back to 30, then I'll sell and pay off these video cards." This limit changed to 20, 15, 10... Finally I broke. I sold enough to cover my initial costs for the cards, and a little extra just for "bragging rights".

Looking back, I didn't really sell because I couldn't afford to lose the money I had spent on hardware. I sold so that I could tell my friends that I hadn't lost money on bitcoin, that I wasn't a fool. (first lesson learned)

Then the tide turned. Bitcoin didn't fall to zero, didn't fail, at least not yet. I don't remember exactly when the 7970 came out, or what the price of bitcoin was at the time, but I decided to make an investment (4 cards cost me $2600 CAD at the time, THAT part I remember) - This time it was different. This time I didn't care what my friends or anyone else thought. (second lesson learned. and all my friends thought I was completely nuts, btw)

The rest, as they say, is history. There have been many mistakes and lessons learned. The most important part is to be honest with yourself. Sure, It's difficult to admit to others when you've made a mistake, but it can be much more difficult to be impartial enough to admit to yourself that you've made a mistake. If you can achieve this, however, you will then be able to look back at your decisions, analyze, and then move boldly on to the many new mistakes you will make in the future.


p.s. I have no idea if selling at 57, buying at 90, or any of this will turn out to be a mistake, or a gloriously fortuitous decision. One can only hope to make the best decisions they can at the time, and learn from the results.

I sold out at 62, dont feel bad. Looking forward to the next plunge. 8)

Sold just a few at $180 on the way up.  Felt silly for a few hours  8)

I sold at ~25, and then i watched in awe!  :D

I still a good stash, so no regrets!

Sell low, buy high  8)

In all seriousness that does suck, I wouldn't of went all in at $94 though. Should have staggered your purchases throughout the day... would've gotten a lower average cost.

A few more considerations to add to this:

Very many people who trade don't really know how much they've made nor lost primarily because their record keeping is rubbish.

Many more people who trade believe they've done OK than actually have (which I think is a reason bad record-keeping is so common because not knowing allows one to keep the success delusion going).

I have noticed the trend in success report posting when usd/btc was on the way up tended to express their success in $ whereas since the ratio was going down success tends to be reported in increased btc holding.  Making USD when the price was on its way up was 'easy'.  But if the end-goal was increased btc holding how many of those who believe they 'did well' actually held more btc at its peak than had they just bought and held?  Making BTC when the price was on its way down was also 'easy'.  But if the end-goal was to make more usd how many of those who believe they did well actually made more by trading than they would have had they just sold first opportunity on the way down and stopped trading?

And just another couple of considerations that may be worth contemplating:

most people have an idea when to get in to a trade but many many don't at the point of entry have a clear strategy as to when to exit - for if it goes well and for if it goes against them.

Many people who trade do not have a clearly defined policy regarding how much money (whether btc or fiat) one's trading capital is and how one decides for each trade what proportion of the 'bank' to trade.  I would even venture to hazard a guess that most people trading fiat and btc haven't really decided which of the two to treat as one's bank and therefore don't even have a clear picture as to what an 'open' position is (if you think of your bank in fiat an 'open' position is when you own bitcoin with the intent to sell for fiat profit whereas if you think of your bank in bitcoin your 'bank' is when you've bought some fiat with the purpose of selling it back for bitcoin).

Oh and one more... Heads up to the OP for reporting a lost trade and redressing the balance somewhat.  It is easy to get the impression from reading the forums that a large proportion of those who trade do well most of the time and do very well fairly frequently.  The most likely reason for that in my opinion is that people don't tend to report their losses.  I say this because it might be tempting for those not trading to join in the fun because it's 'so easy' to make loads.  I'm not saying it's not - just that you may not be getting a representative impression just from reading the forums!

I should make it clear for anyone keen to take any of my 'wisdom' on board that I am not a trader and have never had much success trading.  However I have spent a lot of time learning enough about it to be comfortable not trading!* To the extent that I have a 'bank' is in bitcoin and I am delighted to have not lost - neither on the way up nor the way down simply by holding!

* Just as the book that has 'made' me most money is John Mullins' The New Business Road Test: What Entrepeneurs and Executives Should Do Before Writing a Business Plan - not because I have had many successful business ventures (or even one) since reading it but because I've not kept trying loads of apparently brilliant business ideas of mine on whim meaning I've stopped wasting time and money on ones that were almost certainly to have failed!

This is great advice.  Thank you for sharing!     I need to get my records in order.  They went to hell at about $98/BTC. 

You can't predict markets short term, its gambling.

Even if you are 100% correct in your logic, short-term it is so random that it will not help you.
You can "cheat" by trading faster (with robo-trading, which can also fail when unexpected events occur) or spend resources gathering information about where the market is headed (which you can't do short-term unless you are MtGox).

Even IF you correctly called both peak and bottom you have to remember that volume at those points is likely to be very low ie. not many sold at 50 or bought at 260 so you might not have been able to do that trade even WITH perfect information. (+MtGox was down some of the time)

(If you search me on the forum you might see that I predicted a bubble/crash in early 2013 back in Nov/Dec last YEAR and I still didn't try to trade this because in 2 years BTC will be higher than 260$ ea. and I didn't know the exact top/bottom.
Why trade for a few hundred bucks, risking thousands, when holding may make me a freaking millionaire in a few years time?
Start of April I guessed 60$/225$, but I also guessed wrong before that, who will bet 1000-10.000$ on a random guess they made?)


If you believe in Bitcoin for good reasons then buy in again immediately and don't trade/worry for some years, things take time.
If in doubt leave some in Bitcoin and invest in other things with your other money.
If you don't believe in Bitcoin for good reasons then sell/stay out and invest in something else.

https://i.imgur.com/uAxDx3V.png

Hopefully I will never be this stupid again in my life.

The same here:

http://psyno.re/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/fail-624x456.png

At least didn't rebuy at 266$  ;D ;D ;D ;D

Since I accidentally sold @ 75 the coins I got @ 105 I'm not going to buy again unless it comes down to 70 or less.
I already feel bad enough for that bloody sell order I forgot overnight, would be hurting my pride further to buy higher than I sold.

Now, if Bitcoin is on a steady way up I'm just out for a bit. Joining the bear club for a while.

I don't even.

so what your telling me is that you were buying btc at 2 bucks and buying all the way up and watched the 266 break and saw it fall and fall and fall and fall and it bounced a few times in there and watched it do its thing and then sold at the lowest posible low?...well within ten bucks but realy about as low as you could go. so you have been in bitcoin a while and this was your game plan ....

WELL YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CALL THE TOP
AND YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CALL THE BOTTOM
BUT IM CALLING BULL SHIT ON THIS THREAD!!!!

threw in a little satashi dice to mix things up too just to show how inept you are.

you guys took it hook line and sinker.



if it is true....then wow you have learned NOTHING about bitcoins and why are you not a maximmum hero member if you were into btc when they were two?

This is the first time Ive seen the Proudhon music video lol. Who put that together? Thats genius!

What the fuck is a 'maximum hero member'?
Just because I was around back then doesn't mean I was actively posting on Bitcoin Talk.

DAMMNNNNN

I put in some sell orders to sell the coins I bought at $90 for 100, 105, 110

All the coins got bought up, and price went to 130

Stupid me bought in again, and now price is $118. FUCK

b!z,
Take your remaining coins out of the exchange. NOW. Put them into a paper wallet. Then bury this paper wallet somewhere, and forget about the whole bitcoin thing.
Then come back in 6 months.

 
bro.... I'm going to be real honest with you... You are a pure FUCK UP   :-\ :-\

lol... if there is a bust, that's the perfect finisher. After the last bubble did such a "recovery", an 80% decline over a few months followed.

Face it, you can't speculate without speculating. It's nonsensical. A speculator should either use a statistical-systematic approach (in which "OMG FML" is no reasonable outcome) or figure out how to value a coin and act accordingly. If the number is absurdly high or low, think again, chances are the model used is wrong.

If the estimate jumps between <57 and >130 within a few days, wrong becomes seriously wrong. Sticking your head in the sand with a paper wallet permabull stance does not solve that.

My tip would also apply in 2011. Just imagine if you had bought coins at $5-$10, and resisted panic selling seeing your investment lose 80% of its value. You'd be golden today.

If you want to speculate sure go ahead, you might come on top, but leave your emotions at bay or you will most likely end up like the OP. If you know you can't think rationally when under pressure, and trading is immense pressure, at least prevent yourself from doing stupid things.

Anyway, I lost my shirt in 2011 doing exactly what the OP did. Just sharing some experience I learnt the hard way.

I don't see why people are so hostile to the OP.  After all, for any speculative bubble to be profitable to someone, someone else has to be fool enough to buy high and sell low.  As they say in poker, don't tap the aquarium, it scares the fish.

I'm going to take all my coins out of gox and put them into a paper wallet. Maybe dice whatever btc I have left.

You just keep doing that!  Bless your heart!

But if you're not going to have any BTC any more perhaps you should stop offering to buy stuff for BTC in multiple lines of your sig.

I'm in the process of moving everything offline again. 

This. A lot of people will be holding on to losses as this thing goes down. Holding and hoping!

I still have a good amount of BTC, and it's not in Mt Gox. Don't worry :)

Care to reveal your average entry point in 1-4/2013?

Mine is about $75.

He doesn't have any coins  ::)

Of course he has, probably more than me. Employ your logic -  ::)

There's a good rule to not make too much stupid things at once, because they tend to multiply if you follow that road. I.e., lost everything gambling - don't go jumping off a bridge, that'll make things worse. Made a very bad trading decision? Don't follow up with a much stupider idea to try and recoup losses through gambling. Remember, one stupid thing per month. That can work :)

I gave out some Bitcoins today, and enforced a rule that the receiver can do whatever they want, as long as the number of BTC in the cold wallet is not reduced by more than 1%, in any given month.

Try it with yourself, might work. If not "enough" BTC, go to work and earn some ;)

This is why I buy more bitcoins whenever I can. Buy and hold.
You have to survive throughout the pumps and corrections. Stay strong!

maan you revived topic from prehistoric ages  ;D