Bitcoin Forum

while we definitely are still in a medium-term downtrend, it seems like the volatility left in the wake of the monster knife is enough stage for a mini-rally. from a zoomed-out view it looks like a bulltrap, BUT, on the 30-min scale we are incredibly oversold.

based on the PVT:

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http://s7.postimg.org/kbgom2rcb/5hourpvt.png

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... it seems we are on the verge of a very important breakout. the bid side looks deep, obviously encouraged by mr M's fat $70 wall, and the indicators are temporarily bullish. i think we're going up in a big way, at least to $100.

Tick, tock...

Tom, Dick and Harry all want bitcoins and they ain't got none (yet).

I hope you're right but it doesn't look that way. It's more likely that we keep bouncing as we head gradually down. Just like the last crash it will take months before we really recover.

babby's first rally, a photo album:

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http://s11.postimg.org/51zs9wycj/movingsupport.png

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http://s18.postimg.org/pf1p71w4p/movingsupport.png

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http://s17.postimg.org/qkop90df3/triangle.png

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... the last picture being the most recent.

i've heavily annotated this last one to point out some evidence for the OP's prediction. the white line in each of the images is the moving support.

the PVT  in the OP shows a different triangle formation than the price, though. the yellow line in the last image indicates the top of the price triangle, the purple line demonstrates the falling volume, and the yellow circle appears to show a bullish breakout.

so the price has already 'broken out' of the smaller triangle formation, and is now struggling to make the bigger, more important move which would break its PVT out of the mid-term downtrend.

if we extrapolate the moving support...

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http://s10.postimg.org/c8qbaacpl/countdown.png

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... it seems if we don't move out of this range in 5 hours we'll collide with it, and then the market must decide.

Yeah, I extrapolating that line also, figured we'd be in the 80s for a number of hours. It has been hitting and climbing that moving support like a staircase for over a day now with no trouble at all. It look a jump up to the 80s and I'd imagine when it lands on the support it'll continue its climb.

that's what just happened. the selling pressure is immense but we're resting delicately on that moving support. i'm really confident in this market, the bid side is showing a lot of strength for the first time in weeks.

Yeah, but last crash you couldn't buy MetART with Bitcoins. Finally, PORN FOR COIN!

+1

I don't agree. The last crash (you're referring to 2011?) might've taken months to recover, but it also took month to happen.

looks like the bulls are running!
95+

Failed to hit 100. Double top?

maybe. or just consolidation. bid side looks strong but ask side has also filled up with people ready to unload. tons of selling pressure, it's up to the market to decide whether or not $100 bitcoins can really be taken seriously again.

Can you please check your PM

And please continue to analysis. Maybe start a service.

It keeps making lower highs on the way down. The only exception is the current break out, with the last high at 82. If it fails to hit the previous major high at 102 in this wave, we should at least re-visit 82. 82 seems to be a magic number, as 2 lows and 1 high after the crash.

good call....bitstamp allready broke 100...just barly though.

Oh boy, 12.5k sell wall.

Edit: Aaaaaand it's gone.

I don't see a lot of sell pressure. Where is the sell pressure?

Used up in the last 4 days?

Trading as low as 84 now and seems still going down. Triangle is broken and seems not merely consolidation. The last high at around 82 could be decisive and I bet it will not hold.

It's late here. I expect to wake up with 70s.

looks like we've broken from the downside.
corrections are often over-corrections, and now, when ever there is major selling, I see buyer swooping in.

hopefully, stabilize and slowly appreciate without the hysteria of a week ago

With over 17.2 million USD we just broke the all-time-high bid sum. Quite some money still on Mtgox seems to be waiting for an entry point.

Asks are 3.5X higher than before the top though.

True, there seems to be a lot of pressure from both sides.

Which is why my liquidity bot is turning nice profits.

OK, it bearly touched 83 and bounced.

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4074/4814014643_b2e1da67c5_z.jpg

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best guess: $100 is a short-term top. doesn't seem like we have the oomph right now. if $80 holds on the bounce, bull sign. otherwise this might really just be a drawn-out bulltrap. after failing to break $100 yesterday, i'm starting to fear if $50 is really the bottom...

It climbs slowly - that's better than the headless chicken rally from Friday :)