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Bitcoin => Bitcoin Discussion => Topic started by: User365 on February 22, 2017, 11:36:39 AM



Title: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: User365 on February 22, 2017, 11:36:39 AM
the global marketcapitalisation is approximately 630 Trillion USD = 630 * 10^18$ = 630 000 000 000 000 000 000 US$
There are 21 Million BTC available, and one BTC can be split into satoshis. 1 BTC = 10^8 sat = 100 000 000 sat

So if we would replace all available money with BTC:
630 000 000 000 000 000 000 / (100 000 000 * 21 000 000) = 300 000$

That means if all money is replaced by BTC one satoshi equals 300 000 US$ (grats to all us early adopters in this case  :D)
BUT this is NOT possible because how will you buy bread, shoes, everything except you always give 300 000$ and and the trest is the tip  ;D)

So do i have misscalculated ? Is my source wrong ? How would you say this problem can be fixed ?

A source of my information, they got a nice graph, including BTC, check it out!  ;)
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: ASHLIUSZ on February 22, 2017, 11:41:35 AM
the global marketcapitalisation is approximately 630 Trillion USD = 630 * 10^18$ = 630 000 000 000 000 000 000 US$
There are 21 Million BTC available, and one BTC can be split into satoshis. 1 BTC = 10^8 sat = 100 000 000 sat

So if we would replace all available money with BTC:
630 000 000 000 000 000 000 / (100 000 000 * 21 000 000) = 300 000$

That means if all money is replaced by BTC one satoshi equals 300 000 US$ (grats to all us early adopters in this case  :D)
BUT this is NOT possible because how will you buy bread, shoes, everything except you always give 300 000$ and and the trest is the tip  ;D)

So do i have misscalculated ? Is my source wrong ? How would you say this problem can be fixed ?

A source of my information, they got a nice graph, including BTC, check it out!  ;)
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/
That's a big and detailed calculation to take role as an mainstream currency. Reading it one could easily understand the difficulties behind the mainstream flow or for a single currency system through out. A currency value cannot go beyond certain limit which decreases the usability and ease of use.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: brituspol on February 22, 2017, 11:44:17 AM
AFAIK this question has been asked several times before, you can google the question or search it on bitcointalk. One  page (http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3851/how-to-overcome-the-21m-limit-of-bitcoins-as-adoption-increases) I found , I think answers your question

Although I highly doubt bitcoin will become so big as to replace USD as the global currency or even come close to it


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: User365 on February 22, 2017, 11:55:01 AM
AFAIK this question has been asked several times before, you can google the question or search it on bitcointalk. One  page (http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/3851/how-to-overcome-the-21m-limit-of-bitcoins-as-adoption-increases) I found , I think answers your question

Although I highly doubt bitcoin will become so big as to replace USD as the global currency or even come close to it

Thank you very much,

i just found out you COULD devide it into smaller pieces too. I thought the amount which you can split a BTC was limited


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: brituspol on February 22, 2017, 11:58:19 AM
Thank you very much,

i just found out you COULD devide it into smaller pieces too. I thought the amount which you can split a BTC was limited
The smallest unit is 1 sat for now, but the protocol can be changed to allow tx with even smaller units or even upping the max limit for number of bitcoins although I'd say the former is much much more likely than the latter.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: talkbitcoin on February 22, 2017, 11:59:34 AM
So do i have misscalculated ? Is my source wrong ? How would you say this problem can be fixed ?

i can't find any problem with your calculation, but i see a big problem here:

if all money is replaced by BTC

like many other hypothetical questions around here, you are making a big assumption without realizing how big and in some cases how unrealistic that sounds.

and the solution is not as hard as your calculations and assumptions.
in case bitcoin became so expensive that 1 satoshi was worth #### USD then the code can be changed with consensus and a fork to have units lower than 1 satoshi.

p.s. remember that there is no such thing as 1 bitcoin 21 million bitcoin. there is only satoshi.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: SpousedHF on February 22, 2017, 12:03:27 PM
I mean I really just don't see it working out it is not easily obtained I can't see jobs handing out BTC over the network for it I can't really see all of this happen but maybe I am wrong but from what I can assume it would be easier to keep cash as the current currency.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: AicecreaME on February 22, 2017, 01:16:20 PM
the global marketcapitalisation is approximately 630 Trillion USD = 630 * 10^18$ = 630 000 000 000 000 000 000 US$
There are 21 Million BTC available, and one BTC can be split into satoshis. 1 BTC = 10^8 sat = 100 000 000 sat

So if we would replace all available money with BTC:
630 000 000 000 000 000 000 / (100 000 000 * 21 000 000) = 300 000$

That means if all money is replaced by BTC one satoshi equals 300 000 US$ (grats to all us early adopters in this case  :D)
BUT this is NOT possible because how will you buy bread, shoes, everything except you always give 300 000$ and and the trest is the tip  ;D)

So do i have misscalculated ? Is my source wrong ? How would you say this problem can be fixed ?

A source of my information, they got a nice graph, including BTC, check it out!  ;)
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

It is not our concern anymore because it is really not, if 1 satoshi will be $300 00 in fiat, then it is a great news because with this, we can change the world for a better one and there would be no more people that will suffer poverty because of Financial problems. This world that we are living right now would turn into something that we can never imagine, like the place in the Tomorrow land, the movie.

So, technically, if bitcoin would cost this high in the future, then it will surely become the main currency that we are all going to use and fiat will become worthless, because the bigger the bitcoin cost, the higher of chances it can become the main currency in the whole world.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: Diver6691 on February 22, 2017, 01:41:22 PM
In that case you'll have other things to worry about.
Like the block size .

By the way , 630 trillion is not 630*10^18


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: Xester on February 22, 2017, 01:45:15 PM
the global marketcapitalisation is approximately 630 Trillion USD = 630 * 10^18$ = 630 000 000 000 000 000 000 US$
There are 21 Million BTC available, and one BTC can be split into satoshis. 1 BTC = 10^8 sat = 100 000 000 sat

So if we would replace all available money with BTC:
630 000 000 000 000 000 000 / (100 000 000 * 21 000 000) = 300 000$

That means if all money is replaced by BTC one satoshi equals 300 000 US$ (grats to all us early adopters in this case  :D)
BUT this is NOT possible because how will you buy bread, shoes, everything except you always give 300 000$ and and the trest is the tip  ;D)

So do i have misscalculated ? Is my source wrong ? How would you say this problem can be fixed ?

A source of my information, they got a nice graph, including BTC, check it out!  ;)
http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

It is not our concern anymore because it is really not, if 1 satoshi will be $300 00 in fiat, then it is a great news because with this, we can change the world for a better one and there would be no more people that will suffer poverty because of Financial problems. This world that we are living right now would turn into something that we can never imagine, like the place in the Tomorrow land, the movie.

So, technically, if bitcoin would cost this high in the future, then it will surely become the main currency that we are all going to use and fiat will become worthless, because the bigger the bitcoin cost, the higher of chances it can become the main currency in the whole world.

Bitcoin could reach even up to 1 million dollars each coin and not only 300k dollars but if we speak that it will replace the fiat currency then it is another story. Bitcoin cannot replace fiat currency since its total amount is short compared to the total market capitalization of all fiat currencies in the world. The only way for bitcoin so it can replace fiat currency is to add more bitcoins into circulation and all government around the globe will accept bitcoin as the universal legal tender.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: Red-Apple on February 22, 2017, 02:08:41 PM
all of the above are true but you really didn't need that much calculation, the calculation and reason is pretty simple:
right now bitcoin can not handle more than about 3 transactions per second or to be more precise more than 1000 bytes of transaction per block, and this is limited to something about 1500 transactions per block on average and that is the limitation before we even get to $300000


In that case you'll have other things to worry about.
Like the block size .

By the way , 630 trillion is not 630*10^18

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trillion
that is why you always give hard numbers when online and talking to people all around the world not those only in your own country! instead of using units like trillion, billion,... mBTC, uBTC,...


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: NUFCrichard on February 22, 2017, 02:16:40 PM
Am american Trillion is 10^12, which is almost certainly what the money supply would be measured in.

Even then 1 satoshi would be 30c, which is too much. I won't lose too much sleep over it though, Bitcoin isn't even supposed to be the only currency in the world. It can also be split 100x further, meaning each 1/100th of a satoshi would be 0.3c, which would be ok.

I think transaction limits and the block chain size 'might' be an issue before then though!



Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: pedrog on February 22, 2017, 02:23:42 PM
Bitcoin doesn't have to replace all the money in the world to become a major currency, also it can be divided even more if it is required.

There are many obstacles for it to become a major currency, divisibility isn't one of them.  :D


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: franky1 on February 22, 2017, 02:37:32 PM
OP done bad maths.

derivates are not real money.

looking at other stats.
broad money is what you should be looking at


80900000000000.00
2100000000000000

1 sat = ~4cent


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: lionheart78 on February 22, 2017, 02:49:40 PM
It may say Math says no but code says yes, then this code will make math say yes.  I believe that if satoshi need to be divided to accomodate micro transactions then, the developer will make some modification on the code making satoshi to be divided into smaller unit.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: bamboylee on February 22, 2017, 02:54:54 PM
Why the obsession for bitcoin replacing fiat? I am good with bitcoin being the alternative payment method. And why do the math for something that is not going to happen in our lifetime. Instead of that, let us all work together to make the block size bigger or the confirmation faster. I think that can be achieved in the near future.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: ETFbitcoin on February 22, 2017, 04:09:15 PM
We simply can add another digit if it's really necessary and think the name of smaller friction of bitcoin as well ::)
The real problem are ways to keep bitcoin decentralized while full nodes can be run by normal people while process millions of transaction everyday and big blocksize problems, it also means miners need to process million of transaction everyday as well.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: Kprawn on February 22, 2017, 04:49:40 PM
You can always divide Bitcoin more, if needed... remember it is programmable money.  ;D ....Imagine this 1 bitcoin = 0.000 000 000 1

We are dealing with a currency that can be changed and adapted to suit the needs of it's users... so if consensus is reached about this, it can be

done. I just doubt that any consensus on major changes like this will ever be reached, because we cannot even reach consensus about Block

sizes now..  ::)


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: d5000 on February 22, 2017, 05:05:14 PM
What Franky says is true, so the divisibility is no problem. The number of decimals could - in theory - been even expanded, some altcoins have already done that (NXT) without problems. And I doubt highly that Bitcoin will be the only blockchain out there in such a "Bitcoin-ruled" world.

There are many incentives for people to switch to multiple blockchains, once they have enough acceptance level (that the actual "altcoins" are mostly only speculation vehicles is, in fact, due that nobody accepts them as payment). For example, if BTC was as strong as a major currency, market cap estimation for an alternative currency could be so high that a conglomerate of businesses initiate a own cryptocurrency and finance the establishment of the network with the gains due to the price increase and the savings because of less resource use (lesser storage/bandwidth costs).

So the question should be: Is it possible that cryptocurrencies can replace the fiat system? The answer, in my opinion, is clearly yes. And Bitcoin can be the leading currency among them, as long as its network is larger as that of the competitors (and sidechains and off-chain methods can also bring efficiency gains).


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: odolvlobo on February 22, 2017, 05:38:27 PM
The real answer is that $630 trillion worth of bitcoins are not necessary. There certainly isn't $630 trillion in dollars or any other currencies floating around the world right now.

Money does not represent the entire wealth of the world. It only represents a small fraction of the wealth.

The monetary base of the world is about $16 trillion (the number varies by the source, but this is good enough). So if all the money in the world were replaced with bitcoins, each bitcoin would be worth about $1 million.



Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: raphma on February 22, 2017, 06:07:54 PM
we dont even need math... why would ALL the money in the world be replaced by bitcoin? Governments would never accept this, so, possible or not, doesnt make any difference.
and, bitcoin won't last forever. at some point, other coin will probably replace it.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: angaper on February 22, 2017, 06:11:15 PM
But in that hypothetic scenario I don't think bitcoin would monopolize all the available capital of the world. I have no doubt that most people would prefer to diversify risks through investing in other altcoins, metals or different assets, taking into account that fiat money would not exist in that scenario.


Title: Re: Can BTC be the major currency ? Maths says NO
Post by: bettercrypto on February 22, 2017, 06:16:55 PM
But in that hypothetic scenario I don't think bitcoin would monopolize all the available capital of the world. I have no doubt that most people would prefer to diversify risks through investing in other altcoins, metals or different assets, taking into account that fiat money would not exist in that scenario.

In hypothetical discussion everything is possible.  This is just creating a scenario to see thing if it fits.  I also agree that Bitcoin do fit in a role as major currency but I guess it will be best if it is an alternative currency next to USD or other major currency in the world.  Bitcoin as we know is only a program that can be upgraded, modify or downgraded depends on the needs of the situation.  So whenever math says no, the dev can interfere as "divine intervention" to make math agree with the current scenario.