Bitcoin Forum

That little dip was the correction.  Get ready for blast off.

Analysts have pegged the odds of the COIN ETF passing at approx 35%.  

They predicted 300 million of cash to flow into it in the first week.  

They have calculated we should see a quick rise around 3500$ per bitcoin.  

They predict that the price of bitcoin will drop to around $600 should the ETF not pass.

Using these figures bitcoin has an equity of approx 1650$.  This means buying bitcoin right now below this price is EV+. People will continue to buy until at least 1600$ at which point it will hover around there until news on the ETF comes out.

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Source :

"Summary

Our thesis is that the probability of a Bitcoin ETF approved in the near term has been misevaluated as a "very low chance" event by major investment and research firms.

As such, there is an attractive return/risk ratio for investors taking positions in the OTC market before March 2017.

We provide a target price of $3,678 for Bitcoin in case an ETF is approved in 2017 and a target price of $551 in case it is rejected this year.

We assign a probability of 35% for approval against 65% probability for rejection, making our final weighted average expected price $1645.45 or a +67.8% expected return above the current price."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4044517-bitcoin-etf-approved-march-2017-black-swan-asymmetric-risk-reward

While I agree that ETF approval is unlikely to happen I disagree with the claim that it will bring price of bitcoin down to $600.
Traders are aware that SEC stamp of approval won't be easy to obtain and 11 March might not be the final date.
But you are right when market will react allergically then it will be ideal time to buy BTC, the best we can wish for.

Definitely the impact of the denial is debatable, but given that the odds that it falls below that price are very small the equity is at least 1600$ or better.

These are the things "real" traders use to determine risk/ reward ratio and make decisions with.  So I like the odds of Bitcoin reaching 1600$+ before any announcement in regards to the ETF

I love it when "experts" tell you what the price will do. 

In my experience they know barely more than you and I. 

I think if its approved it will not be a direct bee line to $3500 but I think it will get there eventually of course. 

I also don't think the price will drop to $600.  I think people all over the world are buying bitcoin for different reasons and the least of which is the Winklevoss ETF.

I think $600 is extreme for Bitcoin to drop  that low, though I will I agree that ETF being disapproved will somehow push the price of Bitcoin down to I think at most  $800.  Though I kinda see that $3500 if no one  will do a massive dump with their BTC during the rise will definitely be touched with that 300 million dollar added to the Bitcoin Economy, it may even exceed it.

these so called analists are full of it and they have no idea what they are talking about. first of all the money they predict has already flown into bitcoin while they were asleep in their parents basement. so it is not going to miraculously increse the price just because it was approved.

second bitcoin price has not gone up from $600 to current $1100 because of ETF to go down if it is disapproved. if it is disapproved there will be FUD and idiots dump and price goes down. worse case scenario is $950 for aout 10 minutes and jump back up to $1050 and then in a week back to $1200

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I want to see OP short bitcoin to 600 and see how he will fare. So many have already short bitcoin and many have fallen thru margin call. ETF Approved or not, I am still on my position, long term hodl. I believe even if the price fall if it gets disapproved, it will  bounce back in a few months and higher price later.

i cant wait till 11 march. Its quite boring to hold o btc at the moment haha. I also heart a rumour that the chinese exchanes on 9 march will open again. I cant find any confirmation to this. But what will happen when lots of chinese can access their bitcoins after almost a month? I think this date is also interesting.

I think there are three ETF's awaiting approval. The first might be rejected but it is possible that the others get approved at a later date.

OR, the SEC could just decide to postpone the decision again, awaiting new developments, such as the resolution of the blocksize situation.

SEC cant postpone Winklevoss ETF , this is the final deadline.

Well even experts predict wrong thats what I can say. I don't think that bitcoin will ever touch 1600$ ranges that easily although it agree it might be a good time to buy for those who want to just hold short term. I only disagree to OP's claim that "We provide a target price of $3,678 for Bitcoin in case an ETF is approved in 2017 and a target price of $551 in case it is rejected this year." I don't really think that even if it is rejected this year, it won't go down to that price just because of ETF being disapproved and the price target might be too high it might be on ranges 1300$ to 1500$ to be optimistic.

I'm always fascinated by people using EV+ outside a controlled environment like a casino or research laboratory.

How do you even know how many options are there, let alone the probabilties ?

I think $521 is so low for the bitcoin price if ever ETF is not approved. I will still speculate
that the price will drop on the $900's range and no lower that that. And I think it will
appreciate as normal and probably reach the same price as now or more slowly in the coming
months if not approve by SEC. So we better get ready for March 11 because for sure this
will be another major milestone in bitcoin history.

your "Analysts" that you are quoting here for us seems to be looking in the wrong places, possibly in an altcoin market at a shitcoin pump and dump. this is bitcoin we are talking about here, and for bitcoin the news of ETF going either way is not going to cause a mass panic drop to $600 or the other way going to moon to $3500

these "Analysts" specially with their out of blue 35% sound to me more like attention seekers who make big empty claims.

That's why I said "Using these figures".

Of course this is JUST speculation based on one firms report.  They are taking a calculated guess with the information that is available to them.  You know, the same thing advantage players do in a casino when they are attempting to turn the EV positive for themselves.  The only difference between this and a casino is the size of the system and the amount of unknown variables.  

Admittedly the amount of variables in the free market of Bitcoin are most likely so large that no one could EXACTLY predict what it will do.  But we can SPECULATE, hence the "Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation" above this post.

I'm always fascinated by people who come to a speculation forum and expect to see precise predictions that account for every variable in the known universe and get an exact and irrefutable price target.

You may be right, I don't know.  Do you have a better analysis you'd like to share?

A bitcoin moon after an ETF approval is a WAY more realistic scenario than a bitcoin crash (with subsequent pump from for the average opportunistic altcoin)

I think we will see a small dip if it doesn't get approved, and hype will continue for the next round, recovering quickly.

If the ETF gets passed, FOMO will kick in, and we will get tons of new people on board, thanks to the ETF itself.

the only thing i do these days is buy buy buy.
bitcoin price is very cheap right now and it is getting more and more expensive each month. and i consider myself lucky that i can buy bitcoin each month with a part of my salary before it is 10,000 USD!!

i am in the bitcoin world since 2012. its about 5 years now.
never i repeat never i remember to hear anybody or read any article that could predict the price short or long term, except one: long term will go up, and i mean what was writing back in 2012...

after my registration in this forum i read many @@... i the real world when i have long conversations regarding the bitcoin with experienced accountants, investors and analysts after some time they tried to find out a formula to see where the price will be nobody did with positive result.

What i want to say, in my opinion those panic posts to buy because this...sell because the other... it's just panic rumors :)
and if not all the times, are there to make you do something that somebody else want in order to make profit... nobody cares about you and me.. nobody took you from the hand and told you come to bitcoin....

in any case Bitcoin is here to stay.. if you can make some money because of ETF then i hope you do :)

We all have to gamble a point or two in our lives, not in the literal sense but meaning that we have to try our luck at something. The higher the risk and the higher the return and potentially the losses. I think it is still great to buy bitcoins regardless if the ETF gets approved. The adoption of bitcoins will come, it may be today or in the near future. But the fact is that bitcoins is going up.

Good advice, if you believe in a  coin, just buy, hold and diversify.

Who says ETF won't be approved? last time I checked the main concern was the security and safety of the bitcoins, they were worried what might happen like hack and or theft by cracking the private keys they just need to make sure network is safe.
It's always a good time to buy bitcoins under one condition, don't sell even if you could profit more than 20% because there will come a day very soon that you can profit more than 500%.

I like the prediction but even if the EFT is not approved the price wont dip as low as $500 and if at all if that is the case then you really cannot trust this as a investment platform and all the miners will bleed to recover their running cost and their investments and so i really do not think that the price would go down like that.

The ETF lies and hype is all that is holding this bubble together.

Bitcoin failed to deliver over and over on its promises. It does not scale, not even to its current size. It does not offer any useable privacy.

Wow, now I feel validated.  The duck has come to spread his FUD on one of my threads  :) :D ;D

Here we come 1349.99.  After that I'm not sure what will happen.

I don't understand your figures. A 35% chance of the ETF being approved is a 65% chance of it not being approved, hardly a big positive.

If it does get approved, then $300m would be invested, so 1.5% of the total value of BTC.

So there is about 35% chance of a 1.5% inflow, so the price should rise 0.5% on the basis of the ETF. Assuming it won't go down if the ETF is rejected...

In the event of a 1.5% inflow, the price would increase a lot more than 1.5%. To what degree depends on where/how the coins are purchased.

For example, try buying $300M in BTC on any/all the major exchanges and see what happens to the price.

I totally agree with you. But how i see the last period is like somebody is manipulation peoples thoughts how this is going to turn out...
But the fact we have is that we don't know!!! The reason i did wrote the above post is that i want from my opinion to protect if possible the people who already have bitcoins and not panic sell or something because of an incoming dump that nobody can predict...

But at the end of the day decision is not mine but yours :)
As wee speak 1160 euro / BTC !!! And we go up!

1.5% inflow in ONE WEEK.  The total value of Bitcoin took 7 years to accumulate.  Now you are talking about 1.5% inflow in 0.2% of the time.  This doesn't even take into account how many people will not be selling their coins just because they know that demand will be up.  

As the infofront said, lets see what happens to the price when you try buying 300M worth of BTC in one week.  The average amount traded is 30M per week, and that includes day traders that are buying and selling.  This is 10 times that amount of pure buy pressure.  I'm sure 10 times as many people will decided to just sell their coins at market price because the ETF just got approved  ::)

Not only that, that is only the first week.  The ETF will be around longer than one week.