Bitcoin Forum

With the Bitcoin SegWit vs. BU situation some of the BTC maximalist are saying that we are in a bubble that is about to burst since BU has a bug which should frtify SegWit and eliminate the chain splitting possibilities

Thing is this entire time our alts have been growing, BTC was not dropping. What we got was new money into the cryptospace as a whole. This seems like an exciting time. Lots of profits on every alt I jumped into prior to the pumps, in my case all my early moves climbed the market cap listings. BTC being less likely to split ends the chances of the whole cryptospace entering a recession

it is so funny how people use literary any news to their own advantage when it comes to speculation and price. and it doesn't matter if the news is even relevant!
altcoins are in a bubble, most of them that are pumped are anyways. when you pump an altcoin for no reason and people join in, all this investors want to cash out to take their profit and the higher it gets the more they accumulate and the bigger the bubble will be.
and in the end when they start unloading (dumping) their bags the price crashes hard in a sharp drop or in case of manipulated coins with a little bit slower pace.

FOMO is a b!tch
FOMO is one hell invisible drug

What, Dash may drop 15 USD making the rest of its growth a scam when it still hit a massive gain overall and will slowly get back up? What else would you call a bubble, ETH which is more than just a cryptocurrency but rather a whole network and imo should not really be treated the same as everything else in the crypto market for price speculation? Besides these big names there are lots of projects that may drop a bit but are still growing and will keep growing. I could name a few

Everything smart to get into will end this whole altcoin pump with more growth than loss. The total market cap for crypto grew nicely. Diversify your investment and you won't leave empty handed

DASH is designed to be a scam, without any other purpose.  So you make a good point.  Have you had a chance to check out: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/op-ed-a-closer-look-into-dash-part-1-cm760740

ACE exposes exactly how this scam works.

I don't think so, But it looks like the bitcoin will become the bubble itself. Altcoin is a bubble, It looks like this is a ridiculous pump. And the bubble can boom!! anytime.
In this time bitcoin nor altcoin was turning to the bubble.

The thing to remember with virtually the ENTIRE crypto currency space is that it is very small with very low market penetration and awareness.

The top 20 stock exchanges in the world add up to roughly 55,530 billion, the top 650ish crypto currencies on coinmarketcap.com add up to 25.4 billion.

The returns on a number of these coins has been very significant. The return for Bitcoin for 2016 would have been over 130%. By comparison the return on US stocks was roughly 13-15% average (from what I could find).

The 12 month return on Dash (from now to 12 months ago) is currently 1600%

If the price of stocks, or housing or gold suddenly shoots up for no real reason you can safely call it a bubble because of how well those assets are known by the investing public. When people think "where should I invest my money" they think of those things. This is not the case with cryptos.

I think we could easily see MASSIVE price gains in cryptos without them being in a "bubble" simply as a result of increased awareness and investor education/interest.

All it would take is 0.045% (ie, nothing) of the current investment in the top 20 stock markets to flow into crypto and the whole space doubles in market cap.

Put another way, if 1% of the money currently invested in stocks was to flow into crypto the prices would go up more than 20x on average.

All it will take is a few of the right people to notice the crypto space and the prices could explode WITHOUT it being a bubble.

Take it to another thread, not here.


I'd like that to happen without an ETF and whales manipulating the price

A real bubble will crash down lower than the start and that isn't happening. Dash had real growth independent of BTC fork fear, it was just boosted. ETH has its dapps coming out all the time. Plenty of other alts had events to drive genuine interest. Not everyone who bought in is purely in to ride a spike but many got in for a longer run which will stay solid

This is nothing new, the media have been spinning the news to their convenience since always, so it is natural that whoever can give an interpretation to something that happened and decide it meant this or that.

Wow all the posts on this thread are by super senior type bitcoin talkers.  I am a total new to this.  Thanks for getting this topic going.  It directly addresses my fundamental question as to what is going on in the crypto world.  I made my first few trades on an exchange late last year, and in the past few months watching my small investment has been an emotional roller coaster.

Currently my thinking is this: It could go either way depending on how crypto is absorbed into the mass consciousness. 

I keep thinking about beanie babies.  People really liked beanie babies, but the market was never fully developed, and was cunningly designed and manipulated from the beginning.  The progenitor of the beanie babies went to prison.  I am thinking the earliest and most cunning crypto investors are currently trying to ensure they avoid this fate.

On the other end of the stick is the example of Starbucks, where I am sitting now.  Coffee shops were not new when Starbucks came along, rather the mass consciousness achieved some sort of consensus leaving Starbucks the dominant place to enjoy a cup of joe with complimentary internet access.

Currency is not new.  Buried somewhere way back in the sands of time lies the first silver sheckel which was given unto man by god in the temple along with scales to measure its weight and a concise explaination of what it was, how to use it, and how to make more.

Thanks bitcointalk for all the explanatory effort.  I always end up reading your posts when I'm trying to get my mind around this isht.

99% of altcoins will be down 99% in less than 9.9 years!

Most altcoins are in a bubble but the good ones will most likely survive and thrive has bitcoin has in the past years. Its anyone's guess which ones will have the most success though.

in 9.9 years we will have weeded out most current altcoins because some will have been replaced and made obsolete by the developments of other coins. If we still have as many coins as we do now being speculated on by that time it is fair to say this entire market is jut a speculators gambling field because the market caps for a few coins should triumph a bunch of others to the point that the many new altcoin startups coming around need massive momentum to pick up and serious case use that is not satisfied by the other coins. With coins like NEM that are able to do so many things for example right now, this is evident.

Thanks for bumping this. I enjoy watching people tell me I'm wrong just to see who is right later. Dash never retraced back to 15 dollars and neither has ETH. Mainly shitcoins get dumped. There is a lot of BTC maximalist ideas from a point in time where many scamcoins flourished but people are more keen at spotting that now so its not the same market as the old altcoin bubble

Bitcoin stuck again, so ppl prefer faster transactions, therefore they buy altcoins.

I guess there is no bubble. Altcoins find more and more interest around the world because of the rise of bitcoin. Crypto is becoming more and more popular. Also people trust less in fiat.

There is no Cow Level. Oh wait...

Comon guys... obviously there's a speculative bubble going on for "some" of these alt coins that are hyped up (remember no profits yet).....
The real question is how long can the bubble grow until it pops?

Just like the dotcom bust days, only a few will survive. Don't invest in Pets.com  :D

I have a better way to phrase my original post.

Bitcoin had more than an 80% market dominance. When alts were starting to rise, the general BTC maximalist argument of the altcoin bubble is that although BTC dropped to below 70% it would spring past 90 whike alts sell off.

By there being no altcoin bubble, what I mean is that the shitcoin alts will dump and the money will move into BTC and good alts.Not fair to use some alts being scams as a basis for all altcoins being a scam bubble

Could be that there will come a correction.  But the longterm-holders will win.
Why? Because in schools the kids are already paying each other with dogecoins. Just for fun at this time, but realize... this generation grows up with cryptocurrency.

think about what you are saying for a moment before saying it.

did you think about it?

... if bitcoin is "stuck" or slow or whatever, people are using it to transfer money from one place to another mostly to buy something from a merchant or pay for a service.
or they are traders transferring bitcoin from cold storage to exchange and vice versa.

in both this cases nobody wants or can use an altcoin. for payment the merchants and services don't even want an altcoin. and they don't even have it.
for trading, you are trading bitcoin! so you will transfer bitcoin.

now think about what you said one more time!
now look at the price of altcoins and how they have been rising over the past month. the conclusion is simply, they are buying altcoins to make more bitcoin profit.

I believe that for any bubble to happen then the market share must have been massive but with the calibre of alt we have here none is able to pull that off the only thing we see is artificial dumping and pumping which most time is not sustainable in the longterm just another form of ponzi

This is something we will see for the next few weeks. I hope it does not affect Bitcoin, but even if the alts bubble burst, Bitcoin could benefit if all the capital goes back to BTC.

These are the very early stages of a bubble, but it will take many, many years for this to pop. When it does pop, there will be some survivors who are massively wealthy.

Related thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1926969.0

How come a company launched a few months  ago with a bunch of developers and basic proof of concept be worth hundreds millions of dollars?

:)

If this is not a bubble then what is this?  An increase to altcoin price without any reason to increase is not a bubble?  I believe these altcoins that have a huge increase is being pumped.  I saw one that seems pump is over and now is down to 8k satoshi less than its peak price.  I bet this altcoin will continue to drop in price because it seems the whale had already his exit dump.

"We aren't in a bubble" but then he goes on to explain basically exactly what a bubble is. It's new people joining the fun with new money because they are worried about "being left behind" since they see everyone else making profit. It's irrational because people make these decisions purely on emotions such as greed & fear, that's what makes a bubble a bubble. As long as new people join, the bubble continues (sound familiar anyone?).

To argue we aren't in a bubble is to say that many of the shitcoins being pumped right now have real world value. (digibyte? Dnotes? Naut? a few prime examples)

I think it's 100% more likely that people look at the graph and see it rising and say "rising is good" and buy some lol. That's about as far as most people's "technical analysis" goes. It's irrational exhuberence, the fear of being left behind.

It's also the same emotions that causes friends & family members to want you to "invest" their money for them because they see you making good profits right now, little do they realize most of us have been holding for over 2 years now!

That doesn't mean I think the bubble is going to pop soon, tbh I think we are just getting started. Let's just not try to rationalize something that is inheritly irrational by nature. Let the price & volume do the talking, as truly no one knows what comes next.

I see both camps as right on this debate.

There IS a bubble currently, the rise that's happened is gross inflation that WILL have a correction, that may last a short dreadful time or be a slow tapering bleed, probably some of both.  In that period there will still be opportunity for gains to occur.

HOWEVER, the market cap growth argument is valid.  Even though price corrections from the recent influx are going to happen, and that will be a bubble popping.  The overall trend of this investment space IS nascent and still getting it's feet wet in the massive global economy.  It's barely a newborn compared to what it COULD be.  Unless we see some draconian regulation or an outright breach of the underlying encryption schemes the total market value of cryptocurrency is going to continue to rise for the foreseeable future, until we hit a utility wall where the value exceeds the possibility of new use, which is a long ways off.