Bitcoin Forum

Anyone that has been around here for a while probably realizes that the crypto markets are in a bubble. There have been crazy gains over the past year and/or months, and the upward trend is simply unsustainable forever. It may be time to start considering diversifying into more stable assets, such as FIAT/commodity derivatives such as bitUSD, Tether, bitGold, bitSilver, Nubits, etc... (any other suggestions?)

Now, to the point of this thread... my question is not if, but when do you think the bubble will pop? Are we talking weeks, months, or another year+? I know my answer, but I am curious what everyone else thinks.

I agree about the general concept of diversification, but I wouldn't put any money into any of the above--mainly because I have no idea what any of those things are.

The stock market is pretty far along in the bull market, and a lot of stocks are super inflated already.  Normally I'd suggest putting money there.  Precious metals are definitely not in a bubble, so that might be a wise choice.  And when interest rates rise, normal interest-bearing things might start making sense, too.

About the bubble.  I'm not so sure bitcoin itself is in a bubble, but these shitcoins most definitely are.  I wouldn't touch any of them with your filth-encrusted ten-foot pole.  There's no way any of them are going to retain their value beyond a year.  But what you're asking basically is how long can investors remain irrational, right?  There's no way of knowing, but people have been known to be stupid long-term.

You should share your answer!
In my experience, these are really hard to predict. I can see it as a bubble today, but it was also a bubble a month ago, and even 6 months ago. The markets can remain irrational for quite a long time. Remember in cyrpto there is always an influx of new money that can come in, considering it is so small compared to traditional assets. Small moves from the traditional financial world to crypto-financial world can cause huge changes in price.

I think the main driver behind this bubble is Ethereum's enormous and rapid growth, so the bubble will probably pop either when some bad news about Ethereum comes out, or people begin to take their profits and demand dwindles. Whichever comes first. This is pure speculation though  ::)

I guess the question is about "When current train will crush, so that you could jump on the newly build one?"

Its a fun to observe hysteria on 35B market cap play yard, FX guys ROFL.

I don't mean to say that Bitcoin is in a longterm bubble, but it is certainly nearing a short term bubble. It has bubbled at least twice before, and I don't think it is immune to it.


That's the thing, they are super hard to predict. I am thinking it is a matter of months. Whether it be a couple months or closer to a year's worth of months is where it gets murky for me. If I had to pick one, I would say closer to two months than a year's worth of months.


Yep, that's the fun part about this. All posts will be purely speculation- no one is right or wrong. I am just interested in everyone else's guesstimates!


Effectively, yes, that is the question. Correctly guesstimating this question (and acting on it) can allow you to increase your crypto portfolio by quite a lot. Probably at least 4x to 5x the current value.

BUBBLE POP WHEN MAJORITY OF ZEROHEDGE COMMENT FAVOR CRYPTO OVER METALS

OR... WHEN MOMMY ASK ABOUT BITCOIN



 ??? ??? ???

It's still early, there's plenty more money that will come into crypto over the next few years yet, when your neighbours start buying that's when you should consider getting out.

Saying that, there is going to be some winners, not all are shitcoins. Just like not all tech companies in the dotcom bubble were without value. Companies like Cisco lost a huge amount during the crash, that was obviously a great time to buy their stock and make a huge amount of profit. Pick cryptos with fundamental value for holding long term, the others will rise and fall back to nothing.

Ha ha ha!  You are on the money, man.  When mom and pops start piling in, you know we're in the last stages of bubble inflation.   Ditto about the zerohedge comment, and I'd add mainstream media coverage to that as well.

the only thing we can say for sure is that it WILL pop, but when of it is not easy thing to say. but i can say it won't be a year+ because it pops as traders take their money out of the market and they will do it because they need that money to make more profit.
for most coins it will be a month after their pump at most.
but for bigger coins it will be a slow pop when price goes down slowly and people don't sell because they are in denial!

Well, when you think about it, the rise in Bitcoin price is kind of useless to a holder unless you spend or sell it. It's a question of how long are you willing to hold expecting higher prices.

If a few whales decide that it's a good idea to dump into the market at a profit and cause a panic where they can purchase their sold coins cheaper, it will happen.

IMO its a question of when. Also, I think a drop in bitcoin price would crush a few altcoins and boost a few others. Some altcoins would be seen as a safe haven as they increase in btc value during the collapse while others would test market confidence and drop even harder than bitcoin.

This is alot different than the bubble a few years ago, back than it was crappy clones and anything and everything being thrown out there, now these projects are more legtimate, maybe we are the early adopters of the new age for all these projects coming out, id like to see it not end for a while and if these projects keep it up we should all be a good ride for a while.

The bubble just started. Looking at btc the chances for a next surge are good and alts will surely follow.
So imo we will see a lot of action over the year.

In the wake of this latest pump, it is hard to tell. I feel you won't need mommy and neighbors investing to pop something major, just wait until your *somewhat* tech-savvy friends start talking about Eth.

 

Ans what about the fact that crypto-currencies and block-chain tech is a massive improve in technology which is leading to an important evolution on different sectors like, of course, banking, trading, but also increasing productivity in many domains ?
We could compare what's going on with the internet revolution that happened in the 2000's, and yes it was a bubble, but this evolution lead to the world most richest companies, Google/Amazon/Apple. Amazon for example, associated mail-order selling with an internet website to automatise and scale its operation, leading to its current success. I personally think these technologies have a great chance to lead to these kinds of innovation in a few years.

Of course, not of all crypto would survive, but these which have a competitive advantage and/or a superior notoriety could continue to grow and appreciate a lot.

+1.  

This exponential growth is due to more and more new money entering the cryptocurrency market.  I've seen circumstantial evidence here and there that a lot of people seriously into stocks, forex and the like are starting to realize the gains you can make piss all over anything else at the moment.  It's hard to imagine that anyone into the more high risk end of investing who takes the time to really get their head around the space wouldn't realise they're crazy to not take a punt with a thousand or two.

Facebook is full of ETH advertisments, so everyone who is a bit techie will see it
Maybe we are approaching fast.

what if this is not a bubble and the real bubble is coming? you would be surprised how much this crypto thing can go high when this happen, i still consider a joke all the marketcap of all the altcoin combined was about time that more investors recognized it and start to enter in the market, real game changer is still missed though better to hold for now as many as you can, high chance in the future that these coins will reach the moon

how can a legendary member talk so much **** 0.028% own crypto currency, bubble? ure dreaming

gold +fiat is history.. so much misinformation in ur brain son

Some bubbles will burst for sure, others will stay and become even bigger, and maybe they won't burst at all. Bitcoin is biggest bubble and wont burst if there is constant demand for it. This fact won't change anything, we could soon see 2k$ BTC we all know this.

Bitcoin is losing almost 1% per day of the total market cap, I still holding some but seriously considering switching more to alts before the flippening really gets crazy.

I think the alt bubble will pop as well when Bitcoin's does. Historically, that has always been the case.

And to clarify to the above posters... I do not think cryptocurrencies are in a long-term bubble. I think they are still undervalued as far as the longterm goes. However, as with anything that is traded on the free market, there will be massive swings, both positive and negative. I am referring to these swings (or "mini bubbles") when I say the cryptocurrency market is in a bubble. I am still longterm bullish, but this crazy upward trend cannot last forever. What goes up must come down. Mark my words, there will be a correction sooner or later.

bitcoin is not in any type of bubble. sentiment is pretty low. no one's talking bank loans or million dollar prices next year. the price has risen strongly which makes it a rally. since you were around in 2013 you should know what a bitcoin bubble looks like. it's not this.

many alts certainly are in a bubble.

I think the bubble will not pop until the end of 2017

Hmmm, you are pretty much arguing semantics. Call it an extended rally or call it a bubble. Same thing. When the price has rallied from $225 to $1350 in 9 months... I call that a bubble. The graph looks similar to when it bubbled in 2013. Sure, it may go a bit higher this time, but the result will be the same.

if it goes from 1300 to 13000 in one month then i'll be fully confident that we're in bubble territory and i'll be running for the exit.

i'd argue that that 200-250 price was the result of a combination of the 2013 peak being partly pure fiction thanks to gox and the subsequent doldrums was price intense suppression from the bullshit exchanges in china. now they're gone the basis of this rise has been far more down to increasing demand. if china was fully functional this price would have been dumped to death before it got anywhere near it.

check the localbitcoins volumes and the constant pressure on block space compared to 2013. of course a bunch of that is down to people trying to get into alts too but this is more than just another nosedive in waiting.

Bitcoin will go up more definitely, you can see what SegWit made for LTC, this will be used for best pump ever. Who knows what can happen, if BTC jumps 30% overnight everybody will join the train as always. Alts without strong comunities will suffer the most.

The ALT bubble is showing signs of popping today. It is still too early to tell, but there's a lot of blood in the streets across the board.

Bitcoin reached a new all time high today. I'd say it is inching towards a bubble of its own. I agree it could possibly go higher... maybe to $2k or so before popping, but it could just as easily pop sooner.

I sold all of my ALTs yesterday and today, and now I am waiting on Bitcoin to show signs of a pop.


Hmmm. I have not seen anything about Bitcoin adopting Segwit. Acceptance is only at 36% now... http://www.segwit.co/