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Other => Beginners & Help => Topic started by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 08:28:53 PM



Title: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 08:28:53 PM
I have run some Excel spreadsheet simulations on ROI and want to warn people that buying hardware just to mine BitCoins won't pay off.

I just bought a dual 6970 system, but I bought it before I did the simulations.  I based my purchase on one of the bitcoin calculators.  The problem is that the network is growing at 4% per day in computing horsepower.  That means that your return is losing 4% per day because you essentialy have to compete with everyone else for a fixed rate of bitcoin production per day.  It isn't exactly like that on a day-to-day basis, because the difficulty doesn't adjust continuously.  But the difficulty function adjusts often enough to almost exactly approximate you having to compete directly against everyone else.

When you take the 4% growth into consideration, your break-even goes from 2 months to never.  In my case, I spent $1,000 to produce about 700 MH/S.  Everything else remaining the same, my total cumulative bitcoin production will amount to around $200 before it reaches the cost of electricity in about 60 days.  At that point I will just have to shut it off and sell the parts to my gamer friends for half off.

The only way mining makes sense is if you already have a gaming system and mine in your off times.  But you better do it while it is still worth more than the electricity.  As I said before, that breakeven point will be reached in about 64 days from now.

Some people might say that the exchange rate of bitcoins may go up to compensate.  That may or may not be true.  But if it is, it would make more economic sense to buy bitcoins now and take the gain, rather than buying hardware to generate them. 

I wish that you could paste images directly into the messages, because I have a chart that shows the return falling off a cliff right after purchasing your equipment.

Anyway, I want to warn people not to make the same mistake I made.  The only way to beat the system now is to come out with a custom ASIC for cheap enough per chip that you could dominate the entire network and grow your hardware fast enough to knock out any competitor before they could produce their own ASIC and make a profit.

The frustrating thing about this is that I first read about BitCoin around April of last year (tax season) when I was researching anonymous banking.  I was going to invest $1,000 just as a pure speculation.  I never got around to it though.  If I had followed through, I would have around $7 million now.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: EpiClock on June 18, 2011, 08:48:16 PM
Indeed. I'm extremely skeptical of dedicated mining hardware being profitable unless the price of Bitcoins starts trending up again in a major way.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Iceman_B on June 18, 2011, 09:06:05 PM
I'm a total n00b on this but eh, is doing this purely for a profit not simply moving the issues with money from a real place to a virtual place?
If I would build a new pc right now, I would actually use it because it's a pc too, not purely to mine Bitcoins.

Or am I missing something here?


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 09:14:13 PM
Indeed. I'm extremely skeptical of dedicated mining hardware being profitable unless the price of Bitcoins starts trending up again in a major way.
Even if bitcoins trend up.  It still makes more sense to invest in buying bitcoins themselves instead of hardware.  It wouldn't be the case if the network wasn't growing so fast.  But it is growing much faster than a rational market would support.

I assume this is mostly because the bitcoin calculators out there are so deceptive in the returns they promise.  Also, people may be joining that just have a game machine anyway, so what the hell?



Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 09:15:32 PM
I'm a total n00b on this but eh, is doing this purely for a profit not simply moving the issues with money from a real place to a virtual place?
If I would build a new pc right now, I would actually use it because it's a pc too, not purely to mine Bitcoins.

Or am I missing something here?
If you are building the PC because you were going to use it for gaming anyway, then it isn't a loss. Buying a PC only for mining is a complete loss.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Computer Stuff on June 18, 2011, 09:41:51 PM
The problem however seems to be that an optimized mining machine isn't much good for anything else.

Any changes increase both cost and energy use, so it's a catch 22 situation.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 09:45:37 PM
I have run some Excel spreadsheet simulations on ROI and want to warn people that buying hardware just to mine BitCoins won't pay off.

I just bought a dual 6970 system, but I bought it before I did the simulations.  I based my purchase on one of the bitcoin calculators.  The problem is that the network is growing at 4% per day in computing horsepower.  That means that your return is losing 4% per day because you essentialy have to compete with everyone else for a fixed rate of bitcoin production per day.  It isn't exactly like that on a day-to-day basis, because the difficulty doesn't adjust continuously.  But the difficulty function adjusts often enough to almost exactly approximate you having to compete directly against everyone else.

When you take the 4% growth into consideration, your break-even goes from 2 months to never.  In my case, I spent $1,000 to produce about 700 MH/S.  Everything else remaining the same, my total cumulative bitcoin production will amount to around $200 before it reaches the cost of electricity in about 60 days.  At that point I will just have to shut it off and sell the parts to my gamer friends for half off.

The only way mining makes sense is if you already have a gaming system and mine in your off times.  But you better do it while it is still worth more than the electricity.  As I said before, that breakeven point will be reached in about 64 days from now.

Some people might say that the exchange rate of bitcoins may go up to compensate.  That may or may not be true.  But if it is, it would make more economic sense to buy bitcoins now and take the gain, rather than buying hardware to generate them. 

I wish that you could paste images directly into the messages, because I have a chart that shows the return falling off a cliff right after purchasing your equipment.

Anyway, I want to warn people not to make the same mistake I made.  The only way to beat the system now is to come out with a custom ASIC for cheap enough per chip that you could dominate the entire network and grow your hardware fast enough to knock out any competitor before they could produce their own ASIC and make a profit.

The frustrating thing about this is that I first read about BitCoin around April of last year (tax season) when I was researching anonymous banking.  I was going to invest $1,000 just as a pure speculation.  I never got around to it though.  If I had followed through, I would have around $7 million now.


Those are some low MH/s numbers...I spent $850 to get ~1200Mh/s. 


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: freeman725 on June 18, 2011, 10:03:33 PM
Yeah I get ~450 Mh/s with 2 6850's.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: indio007 on June 18, 2011, 10:05:36 PM
Lifetime return on investment is very lucrative. I can't believe people are whining about a 5000% ROI year over year.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Karen Palen on June 18, 2011, 10:10:13 PM
The frustrating thing about this is that I first read about BitCoin around April of last year (tax season) when I was researching anonymous banking.  I was going to invest $1,000 just as a pure speculation.  I never got around to it though.  If I had followed through, I would have around $7 million now.

Let me tell you about all the stocks I SHOULD have bought/sold, but didn't  :'(

Just got word that a US$100K investment in Natural Gas wells is a total loss - sigh.  :'(  :'(


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 10:35:08 PM
I have run some Excel spreadsheet simulations on ROI and want to warn people that buying hardware just to mine BitCoins won't pay off.

I just bought a dual 6970 system, but I bought it before I did the simulations.  I based my purchase on one of the bitcoin calculators.  The problem is that the network is growing at 4% per day in computing horsepower.  That means that your return is losing 4% per day because you essentialy have to compete with everyone else for a fixed rate of bitcoin production per day.  It isn't exactly like that on a day-to-day basis, because the difficulty doesn't adjust continuously.  But the difficulty function adjusts often enough to almost exactly approximate you having to compete directly against everyone else.

When you take the 4% growth into consideration, your break-even goes from 2 months to never.  In my case, I spent $1,000 to produce about 700 MH/S.  Everything else remaining the same, my total cumulative bitcoin production will amount to around $200 before it reaches the cost of electricity in about 60 days.  At that point I will just have to shut it off and sell the parts to my gamer friends for half off.

The only way mining makes sense is if you already have a gaming system and mine in your off times.  But you better do it while it is still worth more than the electricity.  As I said before, that breakeven point will be reached in about 64 days from now.

Some people might say that the exchange rate of bitcoins may go up to compensate.  That may or may not be true.  But if it is, it would make more economic sense to buy bitcoins now and take the gain, rather than buying hardware to generate them. 

I wish that you could paste images directly into the messages, because I have a chart that shows the return falling off a cliff right after purchasing your equipment.

Anyway, I want to warn people not to make the same mistake I made.  The only way to beat the system now is to come out with a custom ASIC for cheap enough per chip that you could dominate the entire network and grow your hardware fast enough to knock out any competitor before they could produce their own ASIC and make a profit.

The frustrating thing about this is that I first read about BitCoin around April of last year (tax season) when I was researching anonymous banking.  I was going to invest $1,000 just as a pure speculation.  I never got around to it though.  If I had followed through, I would have around $7 million now.


Those are some low MH/s numbers...I spent $850 to get ~1200Mh/s. 
You probably got some older 5xxx series cards put in used PCs.  Mine was new equipment ($330 each for the cards, plus $300 for the cpu, memory, mobo, case, ps).


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 10:38:38 PM
I have run some Excel spreadsheet simulations on ROI and want to warn people that buying hardware just to mine BitCoins won't pay off.

I just bought a dual 6970 system, but I bought it before I did the simulations.  I based my purchase on one of the bitcoin calculators.  The problem is that the network is growing at 4% per day in computing horsepower.  That means that your return is losing 4% per day because you essentialy have to compete with everyone else for a fixed rate of bitcoin production per day.  It isn't exactly like that on a day-to-day basis, because the difficulty doesn't adjust continuously.  But the difficulty function adjusts often enough to almost exactly approximate you having to compete directly against everyone else.

When you take the 4% growth into consideration, your break-even goes from 2 months to never.  In my case, I spent $1,000 to produce about 700 MH/S.  Everything else remaining the same, my total cumulative bitcoin production will amount to around $200 before it reaches the cost of electricity in about 60 days.  At that point I will just have to shut it off and sell the parts to my gamer friends for half off.

The only way mining makes sense is if you already have a gaming system and mine in your off times.  But you better do it while it is still worth more than the electricity.  As I said before, that breakeven point will be reached in about 64 days from now.

Some people might say that the exchange rate of bitcoins may go up to compensate.  That may or may not be true.  But if it is, it would make more economic sense to buy bitcoins now and take the gain, rather than buying hardware to generate them. 

I wish that you could paste images directly into the messages, because I have a chart that shows the return falling off a cliff right after purchasing your equipment.

Anyway, I want to warn people not to make the same mistake I made.  The only way to beat the system now is to come out with a custom ASIC for cheap enough per chip that you could dominate the entire network and grow your hardware fast enough to knock out any competitor before they could produce their own ASIC and make a profit.

The frustrating thing about this is that I first read about BitCoin around April of last year (tax season) when I was researching anonymous banking.  I was going to invest $1,000 just as a pure speculation.  I never got around to it though.  If I had followed through, I would have around $7 million now.


Those are some low MH/s numbers...I spent $850 to get ~1200Mh/s. 
You probably got some older 5xxx series cards put in used PCs.  Mine was new equipment ($330 each for the cards, plus $300 for the cpu, memory, mobo, case, ps).


Um...no...new MSI mobos, 955 phenoms, gskill 4gb ram, psu's...no cases...hdd's were the only thing I had...5830's were where I saved the money admittedly.  If you don't think its profitable don't do it...I do not get why people are trying so hard to steer people away...seems like a lot of FUD...same stuff has been going on for months as far as I can tell.

I did all my calculations based on $9/btc and a much higher difficulty...sorry bout your bad luck on pricing.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 10:46:21 PM

Um...no...new MSI mobos, 955 phenoms, gskill 4gb ram, psu's...no cases...hdd's were the only thing I had...5830's were where I saved the money admittedly.  If you don't think its profitable don't do it...I do not get why people are trying so hard to steer people away...seems like a lot of FUD...same stuff has been going on for months as far as I can tell.

I did all my calculations based on $9/btc and a much higher difficulty...sorry bout your bad luck on pricing.

No FUD, just math.  Did you consider the 4% per day decrease in earnings?  Because that is how fast the network is growing.  You will definately do better than me on ROI, but still won't break even.  To break even, you have to be able to buy horsepower at $0.25/MH/S.  So for your 1.2 GH/S, it would have to cost less than $300.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 10:47:42 PM

Um...no...new MSI mobos, 955 phenoms, gskill 4gb ram, psu's...no cases...hdd's were the only thing I had...5830's were where I saved the money admittedly.  If you don't think its profitable don't do it...I do not get why people are trying so hard to steer people away...seems like a lot of FUD...same stuff has been going on for months as far as I can tell.

I did all my calculations based on $9/btc and a much higher difficulty...sorry bout your bad luck on pricing.

No FUD, just math.  Did you consider the 4% per day decrease in earnings?  Because that is how fast the network is growing.  You will definately do better than me on ROI, but still won't break even.  To break even, you have to be able to buy horsepower at $0.25/MH/S.  So for your 1.2 GH/S, it would have to cost less than $300.

Just to emphasize, the compounding effect of that 4% per day over a month is ENORMOUS.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 10:53:38 PM

Um...no...new MSI mobos, 955 phenoms, gskill 4gb ram, psu's...no cases...hdd's were the only thing I had...5830's were where I saved the money admittedly.  If you don't think its profitable don't do it...I do not get why people are trying so hard to steer people away...seems like a lot of FUD...same stuff has been going on for months as far as I can tell.

I did all my calculations based on $9/btc and a much higher difficulty...sorry bout your bad luck on pricing.

No FUD, just math.  Did you consider the 4% per day decrease in earnings?  Because that is how fast the network is growing.  You will definately do better than me on ROI, but still won't break even.  To break even, you have to be able to buy horsepower at $0.25/MH/S.  So for your 1.2 GH/S, it would have to cost less than $300.

K, I have no problem with new miners...good luck to you.  I am doing fine thanks for your concern.  I am running on par with what the bitcoin mining calculator says so...whatever.  

Also...are you taking into account increase/decrease in btc value...I don't care really...I will find a way to profit from my computers even if BTC went to $0...haven't tried yet but I bet Adobe CS5 runs great on a 4 gpu rig.  

I will start to worry when ASIC's are the norm.  


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Kax0 on June 18, 2011, 10:53:47 PM
Ouch,

i just spent about $500 on hardware, even i've "free electricity", it might take a while to breakeven, now on profits, seems like investing directly on buying coins is the way to go

Shame, i was about to spend more and get 1gh/s.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 10:57:14 PM

Um...no...new MSI mobos, 955 phenoms, gskill 4gb ram, psu's...no cases...hdd's were the only thing I had...5830's were where I saved the money admittedly.  If you don't think its profitable don't do it...I do not get why people are trying so hard to steer people away...seems like a lot of FUD...same stuff has been going on for months as far as I can tell.

I did all my calculations based on $9/btc and a much higher difficulty...sorry bout your bad luck on pricing.

No FUD, just math.  Did you consider the 4% per day decrease in earnings?  Because that is how fast the network is growing.  You will definately do better than me on ROI, but still won't break even.  To break even, you have to be able to buy horsepower at $0.25/MH/S.  So for your 1.2 GH/S, it would have to cost less than $300.

K, I have no problem with new miners...good luck to you.  I am doing fine thanks for your concern.  I am running on par with what the bitcoin mining calculator says so...whatever.  

Also...are you taking into account increase/decrease in btc value...I don't care really...I will find a way to profit from my computers even if BTC went to $0...haven't tried yet but I bet Adobe CS5 runs great on a 4 gpu rig.  

I will start to worry when ASIC's are the norm.  
Actually, in that case, it could still be worth it because you have some other purpose besides mining.  I actually stated that in a previous post, that if you have some other use like gaming, it could still be worth it.  So in your case it probably still is.  In mine, I will need to sell my stuff because I'm not a gamer, Adobe user, etc.

ASICs will be coming soon.  There is too much money to be made to not have it happen.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 11:00:10 PM

Um...no...new MSI mobos, 955 phenoms, gskill 4gb ram, psu's...no cases...hdd's were the only thing I had...5830's were where I saved the money admittedly.  If you don't think its profitable don't do it...I do not get why people are trying so hard to steer people away...seems like a lot of FUD...same stuff has been going on for months as far as I can tell.

I did all my calculations based on $9/btc and a much higher difficulty...sorry bout your bad luck on pricing.

No FUD, just math.  Did you consider the 4% per day decrease in earnings?  Because that is how fast the network is growing.  You will definately do better than me on ROI, but still won't break even.  To break even, you have to be able to buy horsepower at $0.25/MH/S.  So for your 1.2 GH/S, it would have to cost less than $300.

K, I have no problem with new miners...good luck to you.  I am doing fine thanks for your concern.  I am running on par with what the bitcoin mining calculator says so...whatever.  

Also...are you taking into account increase/decrease in btc value...I don't care really...I will find a way to profit from my computers even if BTC went to $0...haven't tried yet but I bet Adobe CS5 runs great on a 4 gpu rig.  

I will start to worry when ASIC's are the norm.  
Actually, in that case, it could still be worth it because you have some other purpose besides mining.  I actually stated that in a previous post, that if you have some other use like gaming, it could still be worth it.  So in your case it probably still is.  In mine, I will need to sell my stuff because I'm not a gamer, Adobe user, etc.

ASICs will be coming soon.  There is too much money to be made to not have it happen.

In my case even selling my CPU's as used gaming rigs I will still turn a profit.  I guarantee I can sell them for more than I paid, even with full disclosure on what they were used for...plus I live in a smaller population area and there is still several craigslist ads trying to buy any and all ATI cards they can get their hands on.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: proto on June 18, 2011, 11:00:58 PM

Do you not find value in effectively having your own BitCoin exchange in your basement?  You give the power utility bucks, you get out BitCoins.  The account is already set up.  No Big Brother watching your interaction with Mt.Gox. 

Seems like there might be something worthwhile about that.



Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:04:01 PM

Do you not find value in effectively having your own BitCoin exchange in your basement?  You give the power utility bucks, you get out BitCoins.  The account is already set up.  No Big Brother watching your interaction with Mt.Gox. 

Seems like there might be something worthwhile about that.


That is true.  But Mt. Gox accounts can be traded out of quickly if that concerns you.  If you want complete anonynimity, then doing your own mining would be the best.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 11:04:15 PM

Do you not find value in effectively having your own BitCoin exchange in your basement?  You give the power utility bucks, you get out BitCoins.  The account is already set up.  No Big Brother watching your interaction with Mt.Gox. 

Seems like there might be something worthwhile about that.



This guy has been on the forum 5 days and so far his posts are as follows...discrediting Mt.Gox, Discrediting mining profit margins and a thread about how his entire BTC client disappeared overnight...clearly he is spreading FUD...read his posts.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: billiophile on June 18, 2011, 11:06:32 PM
I had a P45 C2D motherboard lying around as a spare. Decided to spend some cash on a couple of bits today (cheapo dual core, 4Gb DDR2, 2 x ATI 5830, Win 7 64 bit). Since the 5830 were on offer, I couldn't resist. I like having a spare working machine in case any of the parts can't cope with 100% CPU / GPU 24/7. Now I have 2 PCs mining away on a pool.

Given ATI hardware has a significant advantage over nVidia, I would have thought they'd market that in a big way this past 2 years. I'm a little ashamed I only found out about bitcoin last night, but I do feel ATI could easily have had the slogan, 'ATI makes YOU money faster' or something. The thought of a customer spending real money on a graphics card only to then get that money back in bitcoins... ATI probably missed a trick there.



William


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Karen Palen on June 18, 2011, 11:06:53 PM
Can I interest anyone is Solar (Photovoltaic) generation?

Off peak power?

A WIND generator ...?

This is SUPPOSED to be a "geekfest" folks - IMHO that means we are "creative" in some sense or other!

HEY anyone going to be at the AG in Portland over the 4th of July? Meet me in Hospitality and I will buy you a beer! (Inside joke)


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Karen Palen on June 18, 2011, 11:09:12 PM
Given ATI hardware has a significant advantage over nVidia, I would have thought they'd market that in a big way this past 2 years. I'm a little ashamed I only found out about bitcoin last night, but I do feel ATI could easily have had the slogan, 'ATI makes YOU money faster' or something. The thought of a customer spending real money on a graphics card only to then get that money back in bitcoins... ATI probably missed a trick there.

Their marketing halfwits are still trying to learn how to spell "BitCoin"!


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:21:30 PM
In my case even selling my CPU's as used gaming rigs I will still turn a profit.  I guarantee I can sell them for more than I paid, even with full disclosure on what they were used for...plus I live in a smaller population area and there is still several craigslist ads trying to buy any and all ATI cards they can get their hands on.
If you can sell them for more than you paid, that is a profit from selling hardware, not mining bitcoins.  In which case you could sell the thing now and buy bitcoins with the profit and make more money.

The only thing that counts is bitcoins made from mining.

So I will make a friendly wager if you are interested.  You paid $850 for your equipment.  At the current exchange rate of $18/BitCoin, that would be about 47 BitCoins.  I will wager you 1 bitcoin that your mining equipment will not even make 47 bitcoins before it costs more in electricity than the value of the bitcoins generated (at today's bitcoin exchange rate).  I emphasize the current exchange rate, because as I said before if the exchange rate goes up, you could make money in the exchange, rather than making your own coins.

So for you system, say it consumes 800 watts at $0.07/kwh, it would cost about $1.92/day to run.  That is $1.34/day for power.  So you have reached the end of profitability when you produce less than .107 bitcoins/day.  Again, you have to consider the profitability of todays rate, because if the exchange rate goes up, it merely means you should invest in bitcoins, not miners.
 
Let's say in 90 days.  Are you up for the wager?  ;)


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 11:24:24 PM
In my case even selling my CPU's as used gaming rigs I will still turn a profit.  I guarantee I can sell them for more than I paid, even with full disclosure on what they were used for...plus I live in a smaller population area and there is still several craigslist ads trying to buy any and all ATI cards they can get their hands on.
If you can sell them for more than you paid, that is a profit from selling hardware, not mining bitcoins.  In which case you could sell the thing now and buy bitcoins with the profit and make more money.

The only thing that counts is bitcoins made from mining.

So I will make a friendly wager if you are interested.  You paid $850 for your equipment.  At the current exchange rate of $18/BitCoin, that would be about 47 BitCoins.  I will wager you 1 bitcoin that your mining equipment will not even make 47 bitcoins before it costs more in electricity than the value of the bitcoins generated (at today's bitcoin exchange rate).  I emphasize the current exchange rate, because as I said before if the exchange rate goes up, you could make money in the exchange, rather than making your own coins.

So for you system, say it consumes 800 watts at $0.07/kwh, it would cost about $1.92/day to run.  That is $1.34/day for power.  So you have reached the end of profitability when you produce less than .107 bitcoins/day.  Again, you have to consider the profitability of todays rate, because if the exchange rate goes up, it merely means you should invest in bitcoins, not miners.
 
Let's say in 90 days.  Are you up for the wager?  ;)



I have read ALL your posts...Obvious troll is obvious troll.  Good luck to you...I do not need wagers to prove to myself what I have already found on my own...sorry for not trusting your gorilla math.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:26:09 PM

Do you not find value in effectively having your own BitCoin exchange in your basement?  You give the power utility bucks, you get out BitCoins.  The account is already set up.  No Big Brother watching your interaction with Mt.Gox. 

Seems like there might be something worthwhile about that.



This guy has been on the forum 5 days and so far his posts are as follows...discrediting Mt.Gox, Discrediting mining profit margins and a thread about how his entire BTC client disappeared overnight...clearly he is spreading FUD...read his posts.
The Mt. Gox thing was my browser's problem.  IE wouldn't do the popup.  So it wasn't Mt. Gox's problem per se.  If I was trying to discredit Mt. Gox, I wouldn't be telling people to invest in buying bitcoins on the market instead of mining, would I?

It's not just me discrediting mining profits, it is all over the forum if you look.  Other people have done the simple and obvious math.  I have no other dog in the game other than to let people know that as of right now, it is a loss.

But if you are sure of your math, make sure to make the wager I offered.  And we will see in a few months.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 11:28:03 PM

Do you not find value in effectively having your own BitCoin exchange in your basement?  You give the power utility bucks, you get out BitCoins.  The account is already set up.  No Big Brother watching your interaction with Mt.Gox. 

Seems like there might be something worthwhile about that.



This guy has been on the forum 5 days and so far his posts are as follows...discrediting Mt.Gox, Discrediting mining profit margins and a thread about how his entire BTC client disappeared overnight...clearly he is spreading FUD...read his posts.
The Mt. Gox thing was my browser's problem.  IE wouldn't do the popup.  So it wasn't Mt. Gox's problem per se.  If I was trying to discredit Mt. Gox, I wouldn't be telling people to invest in buying bitcoins on the market instead of mining, would I?

It's not just me discrediting mining profits, it is all over the forum if you look.  Other people have done the simple and obvious math.  I have no other dog in the game other than to let people know that as of right now, it is a loss.

But if you are sure of your math, make sure to make the wager I offered.  And we will see in a few months.


You have said nothing helpful in any of your posts...just spreading FUD.  My bullshit detector is stronger than your bullshit generator.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:29:56 PM


I have read ALL your posts...Obvious troll is obvious troll.  Good luck to you...I do not need wagers to prove to myself what I have already found on my own...sorry for not trusting your gorilla math.

For example, see this thread from someone else that has done the math:
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=18803.0

I'm sorry you think I am a troll for simply spreading the truth.  If you don't like what I am saying, then there is nothing I can do for you.  I am hoping to let others know what is going on.



Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 11:33:53 PM


I have read ALL your posts...Obvious troll is obvious troll.  Good luck to you...I do not need wagers to prove to myself what I have already found on my own...sorry for not trusting your gorilla math.

For example, see this thread from someone else that has done the math:
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=18803.0

I'm sorry you think I am a troll for simply spreading the truth.  If you don't like what I am saying, then there is nothing I can do for you.  I am hoping to let others know what is going on.



If its already in the forum why talk...spreading FUD...that post is another newbie who obviously didn't plan in advance.  Like I said there are no shortage of people everywhere in the country buying ATI/AMD cards on Craigslist...I don't get this guys panic...plus others in that thread have pointed out the flaw in his math also.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:34:05 PM

You have said nothing helpful in any of your posts...just spreading FUD.  My bullshit detector is stronger than your bullshit generator.
I think it is very useful for people not to spend money on something they will never profit from.  Unless as I said before, they are using it for gaming as well.  In which case, they will make a bit of money to lower the cost of their gaming machine overall.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:35:49 PM
If its already in the forum why talk...spreading FUD...that post is another newbie who obviously didn't plan in advance.  Like I said there are no shortage of people everywhere in the country buying ATI/AMD cards on Craigslist...I don't get this guys panic...plus others in that thread have pointed out the flaw in his math also.
I can send you my spreadsheet if you don't belive the math.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Cozezien on June 18, 2011, 11:38:19 PM
I'm planning to get into bitcoin mining. I'll have to crunch the numbers though. I pay quite a bit for electricity so I might have ot go with a lower wattage build


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: billiophile on June 18, 2011, 11:44:09 PM
Interesting the change of focus in such a short space of time. Back in the C2D days, there was so much hype going from dual to quad core CPU (more recently to 6+ cores, etc.), main focus being video editing and to some extent gaming. Then all of a sudden GPU / APU are programmed to be significantly faster at cracking passwords and mining for bitcoins. If one's motherboard supports it, it's far cheaper and more efficient buying say 2 x 58xx graphics cards than forking out for a new Intel SB CPU and motherboard.



William


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:45:24 PM
I'm planning to get into bitcoin mining. I'll have to crunch the numbers though. I pay quite a bit for electricity so I might have ot go with a lower wattage build
Right now, the electricity:bitcoin value ratio is about 10:1.  The big cost now is just equipment.  This will drop to 1:1 in about 60 days if the bitcoin network keeps growing as fast as it has been.



Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:46:42 PM
I'm planning to get into bitcoin mining. I'll have to crunch the numbers though. I pay quite a bit for electricity so I might have ot go with a lower wattage build
Right now, the electricity:bitcoin value ratio is about 10:1.  The big cost now is just equipment.  This will drop to 1:1 in about 60 days if the bitcoin network keeps growing as fast as it has been.


Sorry, I had the ration backwards.  You can make $10 in bitcoins for every $1 in electricity, at $0.1/kwh


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 11:47:33 PM
If its already in the forum why talk...spreading FUD...that post is another newbie who obviously didn't plan in advance.  Like I said there are no shortage of people everywhere in the country buying ATI/AMD cards on Craigslist...I don't get this guys panic...plus others in that thread have pointed out the flaw in his math also.
I can send you my spreadsheet if you don't belive the math.

If I don't trust your math why would I trust your spreadsheet.  More importantly...based on your comments I do not trust you...anyone with half a brain can decide for themselves.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:47:46 PM
Can I interest anyone is Solar (Photovoltaic) generation?

Off peak power?

A WIND generator ...?

This is SUPPOSED to be a "geekfest" folks - IMHO that means we are "creative" in some sense or other!

HEY anyone going to be at the AG in Portland over the 4th of July? Meet me in Hospitality and I will buy you a beer! (Inside joke)
Unfortunately, all alternative power sources cost more per watt than conventional.  If alternative power was cheaper, that is all the utilities would buy.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 18, 2011, 11:52:43 PM
If I don't trust your math why would I trust your spreadsheet.  More importantly...based on your comments I do not trust you...anyone with half a brain can decide for themselves.
Because the truthfulness of math has nothing to do with the people producing it.  It either stands or falls on its own.  All I have to do is explain how the spreadshet works.  Then if you have any objections to the math itself, you can let it be known.

All you have to do is drop the hostility and have a rational discussion.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 18, 2011, 11:56:55 PM
If I don't trust your math why would I trust your spreadsheet.  More importantly...based on your comments I do not trust you...anyone with half a brain can decide for themselves.
Because the truthfulness of math has nothing to do with the people producing it.  It either stands or falls on its own.  All I have to do is explain how the spreadshet works.  Then if you have any objections to the math itself, you can let it be known.

All you have to do is drop the hostility and have a rational discussion.


I am currently hitting more btc per day than the calculators say I should, when that stops I might actually believe your spreadshit...til then keep trolling, just don't expect me to drink the Kool-aid.

There was no hostility til you told me your math was somehow more magical than everyone elses.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Tasty Champa on June 19, 2011, 12:00:06 AM
guy 1: my math is better than yours.
guy 2: math is fun, on acid.
guy 3: whilst factoring in the trajectory of the sun's movement through the universe, I no longer require math.
guy 1: nuh uh!


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 12:02:50 AM
I am currently hitting more btc per day than the calculators say I should, when that stops I might actually believe your spreadshit...til then keep trolling, just don't expect me to drink the Kool-aid.

There was no hostility til you told me your math was somehow more magical than everyone elses.
Fair enough.  So you will be willing to talk in a couple of months about your total return without hostility then?


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 12:11:26 AM
There was no hostility til you told me your math was somehow more magical than everyone elses.

No magic in my math.  It's just that the online calculators don't take the average computing power growth of the network into account.  This is a huge shame, in my opinion, because that is the killer.

Check out this graph of the growth of the bitcoin network:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Keep in mind that the same number of bitcoins per day are produced no matter what.  You have to compete with more and more computer horsepower every day, so your proportion of the day's output decreases 4% a day.  That is the problem.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: BouerBouer on June 19, 2011, 12:16:42 AM
As others have said, if you build a PC exclusively for mining, then yes, there will probably be a loss.

However, if you only mine as a hobby, i.e. leave it on when you're surfing the web, then there isn't a loss. I'm currently only running about 30MHash/second using both my GPU and CPU, but I'm planning on upgrading the graphics card to a Radeon HD 6670. According to the Hardware Comparison entry on the Bitcoin wiki, I'll get about 180MHash/sec. Now the card costs £100. Realistically, if I ran it for as often as I could do, say 300 days a year, that would be about 54 Bitcoins in total.

Which is equivelant to about £486 a year, so about £286 net profit. Which is pretty damn good for a hobby, IMO. Not to mention I'd be able to play better games on this computer as well. :)


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 12:28:03 AM
There was no hostility til you told me your math was somehow more magical than everyone elses.

No magic in my math.  It's just that the online calculators don't take the average computing power growth of the network into account.  This is a huge shame, in my opinion, because that is the killer.

Check out this graph of the growth of the bitcoin network:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Keep in mind that the same number of bitcoins per day are produced no matter what.  You have to compete with more and more computer horsepower every day, so your proportion of the day's output decreases 4% a day.  That is the problem.


So in your estimates is BTC value going down, staying equal or going up...that is what really makes the difference...I am banking on it either staying the same or going up...$24 in the next coming weeks in my eyes is not unreasonable.  $30 was overinflated for the old difficulty.  

My main problem with your arguments is that none of your posts have done anything to help the bitcoin community...just discredit it.  There is a pattern that emerges with threads like yours.

1) They have never mined (or they have so recently purchased hardware they have yet to even try)
2) They typically have very few posts in the forum
3) They are usually new.
4) They all come with math and/or spreadsheets which are different from everyone elses.
5) There has been a sudden surge in these types of threads all over the internet...people seem real concerned about keeping people away.

You can call me paranoid all you want...I am not alone in thinking there is a massive smear campaign going on.  The facts stand that in the 3 weeks I have been posting I have had no problems with Mt.gox, my bitcoin client disappearing or with my estimated profits being unreasonable...you have managed to have all those problems in 5 days...in my eyes either you are in on it or you are too stupid to be attempting mining...either way I don't care about your opinions and they seem to only be here to sway others.

You read my posts most are either trying to out trolls or help others with their hardware...I got into this the same way I get into every investment...with the knowledge that there could be total failure.  Anyone looking to get into mining do the same...have a backup plan to your backup plan to back up your backup plan...there is no such thing as get rich quick (if there is I have never seen it and it is probably very risky).


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: billiophile on June 19, 2011, 12:28:54 AM
Buy a 5830 instead (see my post re: 2 x 5830 on the cheap). It's currently at £72. OK, it's more power hungry than the 6670 but the hashrate / game performance should be better.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: JTaBitCoinKing on June 19, 2011, 12:35:12 AM
When the price of the Bitcoin goes up, the number of miners mining goes up. When the price of the Bitcoin goes down the number of miners mining goes down. This all adds up to a situation where mining for bit coins is, overall, a 1 to 1 ratio.

The value going in is the value coming out.

It's in playing the market where you make your money.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 12:38:55 AM

My main problem with your arguments is that none of your posts have done anything to help the bitcoin community...just discredit it.  There is a pattern that emerges with threads like yours.

 had no problems with Mt.gox, my bitcoin client disappearing or with my estimated profits being unreasonable...you have managed to have all those problems in 5 days...in my eyes either you are in on it or you are too stupid to be attempting mining...either way I don't care about your opinions and they seem to only be here to sway others.

You read my posts most are either trying to out trolls or help others with their hardware...I got into this the same way I get into every investment...with the knowledge that there could be total failure.  Anyone looking to get into mining do the same...have a backup plan to your backup plan to back up your backup plan...there is no such thing as get rich quick (if there is I have never seen it and it is probably very risky).

I am not discrediting bitcoin.  Only mining with GPUs.  And of course I am trying to influence people, because from what I can tell, they are going to lose money unless they wanted to buy a gaming machine in the first place anyway.

As I said before, there is no problem with Mt. Gox.  It is an incompatability with IE8.  You can go to your Mt. Gox account in IE 8 yourself and try to send bitcoins to your account.  You will have the same problem.

The bitcoin client loss is a real thing, I just re-installed it.

If you do the math with the network growth, you don't have to trust me, because the numbers will not lie.



Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 12:40:29 AM
When the price of the Bitcoin goes up, the number of miners mining goes up. When the price of the Bitcoin goes down the number of miners mining goes down. This all adds up to a situation where mining for bit coins is, overall, a 1 to 1 ratio.

The value going in is the value coming out.

It's in playing the market where you make your money.

I agree I would have made far more investing so far than mining...but I doubt it will become unprofitable to do so anytime soon.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: foreshadow on June 19, 2011, 12:48:13 AM
I haven't read the whole thread, however, 4% per day means it doubles every 18 days...


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: chihlidog on June 19, 2011, 12:53:16 AM
I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 12:53:42 AM
I haven't read the whole thread, however, 4% per day means it doubles every 18 days...
Exactly, which is the whole problem. Your mining rig halves it's output every 18 days.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 12:55:15 AM
I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.
You are exactly right.  If you already have a gaming machine, you can make some extra on the side.  But no one is going to even break even with a machine just to mine.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: JTaBitCoinKing on June 19, 2011, 01:09:49 AM
I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.

This is very true, Bitcoin just got a huge surge of newcomers. People like me; right at the point where we are thinking about upgrading our gaming hardware. Looks like my next upgrade is gonna go to ATI this round. I probably will be mining at a loss just to accumulate some Bitcoins for a few months.

Anyone who decided to start mining now to make cash is going to be mining at a loss until the market balances.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 01:11:37 AM
I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.

This is very true, Bitcoin just got a huge surge of newcomers. People like me; right at the point where we are thinking about upgrading our gaming hardware. Looks like my next upgrade is gonna go to ATI this round. I probably will be mining at a loss just to accumulate some Bitcoins for a few months.

Anyone who decided to start mining now to make cash is going to be mining at a loss until the market balances.
That's what I have been trying to tell SwisherCutter, but he won't listen to logic.  I think he doesn't want to hear that he won't be making money on his decision.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: chihlidog on June 19, 2011, 01:14:01 AM
I think the appeal right now, as has been alluded to, is to gamers. I myself was running this rig before I knew about bitcoins. I'm a Radeon fan and already had a 5850 installed, so when I saw I might be able to make a few e-dollars by using it, I gave it a shot. I just ordered a 5830 I'm going to use to mine. So I've only got a $100 investment in mining. If I make that back (which I will, easily) then everything else is pure profit.

I dont think it makes sense for an average joe to buy mining equipment now, but for gamers it's a win-win. We buy the hardware and push it to its limits anyway, so if theres a way to re-coup some of that cost, that's where the appeal is right now.

This is very true, Bitcoin just got a huge surge of newcomers. People like me; right at the point where we are thinking about upgrading our gaming hardware. Looks like my next upgrade is gonna go to ATI this round. I probably will be mining at a loss just to accumulate some Bitcoins for a few months.

Anyone who decided to start mining now to make cash is going to be mining at a loss until the market balances.

I think they'll stay at a loss period. I think "market balance" is a lot lower than it is right now. But thats wild speculation on my part. Not even an educated guess. Of course, I dont think anyone can make a real educated guess since we have no historical reference for something like this.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: BitCoinsForGold on June 19, 2011, 01:26:04 AM
I think that people really overstate expenses and understate earnings potential when talking about mining not being profitable

They never take into account these things

#1 not everyone pays as much for power as they do. You pay .25 a kwh for electric, that sucks. A lot of US citizens pay .04 to .08c a kwh

#2 Money spent on equipment isn't "thrown out the window", but instead its a tangible asset that can be resold. Its resell value must be deducted from your initial cost analysis, and deducted from how much you have to make to "break even"

#3 They dont take into consideration "scale". Is buying one video card going to let you retire? No absolutely not. Will 1000? Yeah probably.

#4 They assume the bitcoin market is stagnant to inflationary, meaning the bitcoin will stay the same or go down. This is not a fact. Its not false, but its also not a fact. If u really know where the bitcoins going, then quit with bitcoins and work the stock market with your same magic, because you have a crystal ball the devil gave u when he was clearing out his garage. Wish i did.





Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 01:33:42 AM
I think that people really overstate expenses and understate earnings potential when talking about mining not being profitable

They never take into account these things

#1 not everyone pays as much for power as they do. You pay .25 a kwh for electric, that sucks. A lot of US citizens pay .04 to .08c a kwh

#2 Money spent on equipment isn't "thrown out the window", but instead its a tangible asset that can be resold. Its resell value must be deducted from your initial cost analysis, and deducted from how much you have to make to "break even"

#3 They dont take into consideration "scale". Is buying one video card going to let you retire? No absolutely not. Will 1000? Yeah probably.

#4 They assume the bitcoin market is stagnant to inflationary, meaning the bitcoin will stay the same or go down. This is not a fact. Its not false, but its also not a fact. If u really know where the bitcoins going, then quit with bitcoins and work the stock market with your same magic, because you have a crystal ball the devil gave u when he was clearing out his garage. Wish i did.




#1, the power is only about 10% of the cost right now, so that isn't very important.
#2, I assume you can sell for about half the new cost.  Maybe that is too pessimistic.
#3, Scale doesn't matter when talking about profitability, only percent growth matters.  You can just multiply your scalar by the growth factor.  I am saying that the growth is negative.  In which case, a larger scale just means bigger losses.
#4, If bitcoins go up, you will get a better return on just buying them and taking the gain.  Ironically, if bitcoins go way down, miner hardware is a better investment because at least you have some hardware you can sell on ebay.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 01:34:16 AM
I think that people really overstate expenses and understate earnings potential when talking about mining not being profitable

They never take into account these things

#1 not everyone pays as much for power as they do. You pay .25 a kwh for electric, that sucks. A lot of US citizens pay .04 to .08c a kwh

#2 Money spent on equipment isn't "thrown out the window", but instead its a tangible asset that can be resold. Its resell value must be deducted from your initial cost analysis, and deducted from how much you have to make to "break even"

#3 They dont take into consideration "scale". Is buying one video card going to let you retire? No absolutely not. Will 1000? Yeah probably.

#4 They assume the bitcoin market is stagnant to inflationary, meaning the bitcoin will stay the same or go down. This is not a fact. Its not false, but its also not a fact. If u really know where the bitcoins going, then quit with bitcoins and work the stock market with your same magic, because you have a crystal ball the devil gave u when he was clearing out his garage. Wish i did.





Exactly, then they start multiple threads stating the same thing when people discredit them.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: saqwe on June 19, 2011, 01:38:08 AM
i wrote in another thread "mining days are over" and still have that opinion,

but look how enthusiastic i was on june 4th:



It's been a wild ride for me these last days since i've learned about bitcoins
I've tried https://www.virwox.com/ but cannot recommend them because their commissions are outrageous

call me crazy but i'd like to try mining with an acer aspire 7552g laptop
with an ATI Mobility Radeon HD 5850

on btcguild

if i make 1btc/day the investment should pay of in about 70 days (not calculating energy)

until the cia prohibits it we are part of something really amazing

good luck again
and have nice day
 ;D


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Akauble on June 19, 2011, 01:38:46 AM
The rate of growth is getting pretty ridiculous at this point.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 01:48:14 AM
The rate of growth is getting pretty ridiculous at this point.
Which is the whole problem.  It doubles every 18 days.  Which means your output halves every 18 days.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: JTaBitCoinKing on June 19, 2011, 01:58:13 AM
Difficulty is based on how meany nodes are on the network, correct? Growth will slow when miners realize it is unprofitable to mine, at the same time the value of the Bitcoin will go up thanks to increased scarcity.

It seems to me that the Bitcoin was not designed for stability. Oh well, just means you can make a ton of money real fast... but also lose it.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 02:05:05 AM
Difficulty is based on how meany nodes are on the network, correct? Growth will slow when miners realize it is unprofitable to mine, at the same time the value of the Bitcoin will go up thanks to increased scarcity.

It seems to me that the Bitcoin was not designed for stability. Oh well, just means you can make a ton of money real fast... but also lose it.
Difficulty is the nodes multiplied by the average horsepower of the nodes. 

In a perfectly rational market what you say would be true.  But it already isn't profitable, and people are still joining.  I just joined because I bought hardware based upon a bitcoin calculator.  Anyway, will be a long time before every gamer that already has a system has joined the network.  And for them it is free.

It won't be unprofitable to mine in terms of electricity for another 60 days or so (assuming $20/bitcoin, which could go up or down).

So the gamers will still be piling on for at least that long.

All of this assumes that more and more people will be interested in using bitcoins, which seems to be true so far.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Tx2000 on June 19, 2011, 02:20:16 AM
Being a recently introduced into the world of Bitcoins, I have no delusions that mining, certainly at this point in the game, will have a short-lived period of profits.  People who do their research and buy "equipment", if you will, appropriately will stand to make some positive gain as long as they are vigilant.  But again, the peak has been reached for mining.


As others have mentioned, this is profitable for all of us because more people are being introduced to Bitcoin and thusly, the bitcoin economy has a better chance of expanding and being adopted (which is already becoming more apparent as the days go by).


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 02:28:25 AM
Being a recently introduced into the world of Bitcoins, I have no delusions that mining, certainly at this point in the game, will have a short-lived period of profits.  People who do their research and buy "equipment", if you will, appropriately will stand to make some positive gain as long as they are vigilant.  But again, the peak has been reached for mining.


As others have mentioned, this is profitable for all of us because more people are being introduced to Bitcoin and thusly, the bitcoin economy has a better chance of expanding and being adopted (which is already becoming more apparent as the days go by).
Right.  The profitability is greater speculating on bitcoins than mining right now.  I do belive that bitcoins will continue to take off, which is why I bought a bunch of them on the market.  I did buy a miner rig, but before I took into consideration the difficulty growth.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: JTaBitCoinKing on June 19, 2011, 02:38:27 AM
Being a miner is like being part owner of the Federal Reserve, you just keep taking little sips off the top and eventually you have a fortune.

However unlike the Fed with Bitcoin, all you need is a graphics card and you are part owner of it's Globule Reserve system. It's not quit equality for all, but it's a lot closer.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 02:50:23 AM
Being a miner is like being part owner of the Federal Reserve, you just keep taking little sips off the top and eventually you have a fortune.

However unlike the Fed with Bitcoin, all you need is a graphics card and you are part owner of it's Globule Reserve system. It's not quit equality for all, but it's a lot closer.
To make the analogy complete, you have to say that the number of owners of the Fed are doubling every 18 days, as a parallel to the difficulty increase.  So your share of the sip halves every 18 days.  That becomes nothing in about 90 days.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: JTaBitCoinKing on June 19, 2011, 03:22:51 AM
Well, right now I'm running the bit coin miner getting about 100mh/s on 3 Nvida cards. I'm not too concerned about losing money at this point (I'm not responsible for electricity), I'm more interested in getting Bitcoins. When the parts come this week, I'll be up in the 400 to 500 MH/s range using a bitcoin miner that is more economically friendly: but probably still won't be very profitable.

That's not what's important to me, what's impotent to me right now is helping to establish a currency that is something other then the dollar.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 03:30:24 AM
Well, right now I'm running the bit coin miner getting about 100mh/s on 3 Nvida cards. I'm not too concerned about losing money at this point (I'm not responsible for electricity), I'm more interested in getting Bitcoins. When the parts come this week, I'll be up in the 400 to 500 MH/s range using a bitcoin miner that is more economically friendly: but probably still won't be very profitable.

That's not what's important to me, what's impotent to me right now is helping to establish a currency that is something other then the dollar.
The best way to do that is to do business with people that accept bitcoins.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: BitCoinsForGold on June 19, 2011, 03:32:27 AM
why kinds nvida cards are you using? nvida sucks compared to ati, i learned this personally. In my personal pc has an nvidia card that cost me 250 bucks i got for gaming before i ever heard the word bitcoin, but only gets 68mhashs when i comes to doing bitcoin mining. ati > nvidia


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: JTaBitCoinKing on June 19, 2011, 03:59:44 AM
My experience with ATI cards is limited, I found Nvidia to be more stable. Obviously I'm going with ATI (Or AMD as it is now) for profit mining and my next upgrade, but those parts won't arrive until sometime next week. Until then all I have is the Nvida cards (3x9800gtx+SLI), so when I'm not playing games I'm letting it hash out.

On a related note, do you think a Bit Miner based on CUDA would boost the Hashrate of Nvidia cards? Or is AMD bitmining the only way?


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Swishercutter on June 19, 2011, 04:01:13 AM
My experience with ATI cards is limited, I found Nvidia to be more stable. Obviously I'm going with ATI (Or AMD as it is now) for profit mining and my next upgrade, but those parts won't arrive until sometime next week. Until then all I have is the Nvida cards (3x9800gtx+SLI), so when I'm not playing games I'm letting it hash out.

On a related note, do you think a Bit Miner based on CUDA would boost the Hashrate of Nvidia cards? Or is AMD bitmining the only way?

Its all about the cores and shaders...ATI is physically better.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Hook^ on June 19, 2011, 04:30:41 AM
My experience with ATI cards is limited, I found Nvidia to be more stable. Obviously I'm going with ATI (Or AMD as it is now) for profit mining and my next upgrade, but those parts won't arrive until sometime next week. Until then all I have is the Nvida cards (3x9800gtx+SLI), so when I'm not playing games I'm letting it hash out.

On a related note, do you think a Bit Miner based on CUDA would boost the Hashrate of Nvidia cards? Or is AMD bitmining the only way?
NVidia is missing a left shift instruction in their shaders which ATI has, so they are 3 or more times slower than ATI.  There won't be any way around that with a different API.


Title: Re: Buying mining hardware will never pay off now.
Post by: Karen Palen on June 19, 2011, 08:29:05 AM
Difficulty is based on how meany nodes are on the network, correct? Growth will slow when miners realize it is unprofitable to mine, at the same time the value of the Bitcoin will go up thanks to increased scarcity.

It seems to me that the Bitcoin was not designed for stability. Oh well, just means you can make a ton of money real fast... but also lose it.

"Never assume malice when it can be explained by incompetence" Heinlein

I doubt if it was "designed" to do any such thing - such are the hazards of exploring unknown territory!

HUGE profits and HUGE losses!