Bitcoin Forum

so it seems like Chinese exchanges fate are finally coming to a conclusion. the AML laws soon to be applied to these exchanges and they say Withdrawals will possibly start in June.

so how do you think this affects the whole market, with all the Chinese big exchanges being out of the game and now a lot of hungry Chinese traders coming back with their price being much lower than USD value (practically free bitcoin at this point).

currently ~10100 CNY = $1,463.25

link: http://www.newsbtc.com/2017/05/10/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-may-resume-btc-withdrawals-june-new-regulation-introduced/

Even if they come back, which i don't expect since an all out ban on crypto is in the works, they will not help us to the moon, the chinese want out.

lol, you are too active these days as when there was a price rise... hmm...

and only an idiot would leave a $400 discount on bitcoin (30% off) and leaves. and only an idiot thinks Chinese which still have the highest total trading volume compared to USD market want out. with their withdrawals disabled their exchanges are still showing a high volume and that is not even considering the huge volume coming from localbitcoins.

Please, can you only show up when the price is tanking REAL hard? You shouldn't be active now...

Don't look at kwukduck, he is just trolling everyone. No matter how bearish he acts, he is buying and selling the waves all the way up to now - he is making big money. Regarding China, at some point the major difference will be gone. Especially when you consider that the lower price offers whales with enough on exchange funds to slowly buy up everything. Nothing happens without a reason. ;)

I wonder what kind of penalty these exchange will suffer? Always the government puts their hands on something becomes boring and problematic

Yes we better follow the tracks that exist today. Without that the bitcoin price is still going up very well.
We all certainly do not want any bad intervention against the digital currency market.

They can go out all the time. They can sell and withdraw to CNY anytime. Just not bitcoin. Once they can again -> very bullish

I think the Chinese market will be irrelevant for the next few months at least.

they are 40-45 % of the market. Its everything else but irrelevant if they can withdraw BTC again. We just went with applied handbrake to 1800. imagine what can happen if they release it.

No they're not.

In the brief period when they were operating with fees they were just another player among many others. China was quickly exposed as the mirage it is. Them getting shut down was the best thing that's happened to this market in years. There's absolutely no way it would be where it is if China had been allowed to continue operating as it had.

I would not underestimate their potentials, as far as I see, in average their have quite a bit more spare money to invest than Western countries. When bitcoin gets on the right track, money will jumps in very quickly.

It seems this news somehow bring another hype to BTC.  Bitcoin breaks its ATH again setting up another New ATH today.  Having a news that these Chinese exchanges will be back in Bitcoin circulation again. 

I agree, Chinese people have lots of spare money in their stash.  They can use them to push bitcoin price higher if they decided to.

"Buy the rumor, sell the fact". What if the current "steady grow" is just a pump before the Chinese coming in; and then the dump will happen?
I don't like to be on the same with Kwukduck but watching your back never hurts.
Bitcoin had a great rise lately and sooner or later it will need a correction.

some stats from bitcoinwisdom:
USD market > price = $1827 > volume 30 days = 881,963
CNY market > price = 10378 > volume 30 days = 764,432

https://coin.dance/volume/localbitcoins/CNY
localbitcoins CNY volume last 4 weeks > 199,466,11 (this amount has risen 30 times since last year)

But this time around dumping and buying back costs them money in fees. If they attempted it in the volume they used to they'd all be skint within a few weeks. They're going to be players of course but the behaviour will be a lot more staid than before.

I don't think China can easily retain the lost control that China had over bitcoin in the past. China once made the fake volume to generate the market value which too made it downfall in their​ own economy. Right now without any external influence the price move is quite good and will reach peak values.

from what i have seen China never had any real influence on the market. they just showed a very big trading volume which was partly because of their margin trading partly because their 0 fee trading and also partly because of competition.
and whenever price went in any direction people said it is because of China.
rise > China was pumping
drop > China dumped.
now that they are out, the same rises and falls are happening and people have nobody to blame!

i agree... did china mattered one iota during the last 3-4 mo. Clearly, NO.
They (PBOC, politburo, etc) thought that they would matter, but they did not...surprise, surprise.
China would continue to matter even less now...in fact, i would prefer that they close their 'exchanges' for a long time.

I would not underestimate them either but china has to many strings attached to centralization and bureaucracy
i would not like to see them drag bitcoin to its  knees with all these PBOC counter measures ....so top spot definitely not china

"drag bitcoin to its knees"!!! LOL
in the past few months bitcoin has grown way too big and all of a sudden. and i am not talking about the price rise, that part is obvious and irrelevant to bitcoin growth that i am talking about.

what i am pointing out is all the positive news that is coming out. we saw Japan adopt bitcoin as a real currency. we saw Russia finally stop treating bitcoin with such negativity. we saw a lot of other countries follow Japan, the other day i read Australia is planning on doing the same. all these are bringing a lot of new people in, China is just one country against all of these.

It is true that in every price surge there is always a massive dump behind, sincfe we believe it is a hype that cause bubbles.  But looking at the current situation, there is really a reason why Bitcon price is increasing.  There are several good news regarding bitcoin adoption, Japan, India, China, and other countries that is so positive about BTC.  And considering the line ups of Big player in Japan, I think the crash won't happen anytime soon.

Definitely,even if they return,they will not be able to gain control ovr the market as before.If they try to dump the price by selling their bitcoins at lower price,then they would end with loss of their holdings as people all over the world are well aware of bitcoin's potential.

I'd say it depends on how strict their AML rules are and whether the old players on those exchanges decide they want to comply. If it's too much for them, the action might stay where it is (in Japan).

however strict their AML is going to be, it won't be stricter than AML they have on their Forex markets or other markets they have.
and all the fines, etc are going to be on the exchange not the traders.
but obviously many may not be active or as active as before in China because of this, but at the same time Chinese are known to be big traders, it doesn't matter if it is USD, EUR, Gold, Stocks, ... they are trading or it is bitcoin!

I think they are going to comply no matter what they want the profits bitcoin can bring and that they cannot find in any other place.

I believed that PBoC will imposed a tighter regulations on Chinese exchanges this time. That have already penalized them for fraudulent activities and I don't think they will violate it again. Because a second violation will mean a closure order. So this might also influence big Chinese traders to whether  engaged again but this time in a legal way or totally moved out of bitcoin trading.

Why is it always the Chinese? How about the other race?
They dont own the world. They are just making a big fuss all over the world and that's it.
They're people dont even want to stay at their own country for banning almost everything.
Even "if" they do have the largest amount of bitcoin in the world that doesn't matter.
There will be a point that they can just make a wave by selling it then what is next?

I heard that bitcoin trading in china moved from centralized mega exchanges OKCoin, Huobi and BTCC to more p2p trading.
Sure, it was dictated by the fact that exchanges were not working 100% but now it is hard to tell if all traders will go back.
Instead moon, we could see a reverse situation and Chinese holders will liquidate their long BTC positions.

i'd like to think that even if the country of china ends up banning bitcoin leading to massive amounts of btc being sold at a far cheaper rate then current value it wouldn't hurt the bitcoin network so bad as too ruin bitcoin for all. However, i do not know enough about consequences of bitcoin trading either having tons of new buyers at current value or having tons of new sellers selling at a 10th of the value. this is still something ive got to learn more about before being able to make an accurate decision based on proper knowledge of what would happen. That being said, i love bitcoin and don't want to see it crash, those reasons not being solely based on financial gain. I think that bitcoin could help not just each of us individually or financial but also collectively( including entire population of earth one day, maybe.) to reach more level ground on social standings.

In a short they can't make the big market move, because even now more bitcoin exchanges were not allowed to make transactions as well withdrawal once after the fake volume issue to make market moves and gain good earning. So by the years to come Japan might go far than China due to its recognised usage.

they are still trading on all those exchanges despite not being able to deposit/withdraw. you can see the high volumes which still exist.
but you are correct that they have moved to a more p2p option.

why won't they come back?
a regulated exchange is 100 times better than an unregulated exchange which nobody is looking into. they can no longer do anything fake, illegal, and they can no longer scam and run away as easy as before.
and more people will trust a regulated place than an unregulated one. just like Forex places.

again i don't see why would they do that, as OP has also pointed out price of bitcoin is extremely low in CNY.

you are saying "traders have waited this long, held their coins and not sold, waited until all the problems are solved with the exchanges, they come back under regulation laws and safer than before and then they sell". i don't know but that doesn't sound like a logical action to me.

It is highly expected at the end of China's bitcoin exchanges related regulation will lead to more massive adoptions among Chinese people as they will not be having any legal hurdles to get themselves into bitcoin trading. Already Chinese investors are fed up with weak performances of yuvan, they are all looking for moving their investments into different sectors, for them bitcoin may become more preferred one.

I am so confident, China will join the party to take prices to another levels like $5000, because no one could forget their contribution by end of 2016 to take prices around $1000.

I do consider the recent price rise is mainly because majority of the coins were stuck in Chinese exchanges and there was a shortage with the increasing demand and may be that is the reason for the price of bitcoin to raise this much,because in the past the Chinese managed to control the price with their huge volumes and would drive the price down,but this time around they could not do anything and so is the reason we did not see any major correction after the exchanges banned withdrawals.

I think so. The Chinese market will not gain its former leading in the near future.

Yes they are. When they where running unregulated, everybody assumed they are leading the market and the wrong charts showed stg. like 70 -90% market share and everybody here on the board screamed oh China. Then the data during the period when the PBOC regulation finally started showed they have a little less than 50 % market share. I posted that chart somewhere back then. Check you facts. So they are not leaders. but are definitely significant. Its a 1.3 Billion population with much stronger attraction to new technologies than the west. It would be naive to believe they cannot influence the market.

Moon with or without them.

We are just a few millions, so doesn't take much for a big rise in price. Good without them, even better with them

This means that we shouldn't make any early conclusions, we can just guess what will be their decision in the end. Chinese are aware what is happening in the world, and that will make affect on their decision for sure. They have a choice to go forward or backward we will see their decision.

I don’t know about that, to me it seemed that the Chinese tried to keep the price of bitcoin low, and now they have been out of the game for some time, the price of bitcoin reached new all time highs, so to be honest I don’t want them in the game anymore.

China has always been a very big market, even without all the fake volume they are still big. with a huge population and a lot of people who are interested in bitcoin and also trading they will always be big.
now that their major exchanges are closed a big part of bitcoin demand is out of it in my opinion and if they come back in June there will surely be a big rally for bitcoin. even if it is only partly coming back with much smaller volume.

I can see there being a rally in the future when they start to come back but if the Chinese start to crack down on it in the same way they have been it might wane some prominent investors from China from returning. We have to wait on China to warm up to the idea of having their people gain access to more free markets, but if they really don't want to there's little that can be done.

Rally or not, China is slowly being replaced by other countries. An almost welcome even in my opinion.

But also note that China has always been the first big dumpers of Bitcoin everytime there is a meaningful rise in price. They want to be first to initiate the price drop so again they would be the first to catch the low prices of BTC. I am happier if they were not around.

They are speculators, moving from one asset class to another. Love them or hate them, you cannot ignore them. They are the most populous country in the world, have one of the largest economies and are important investors.

In a sense, I agree. One of the first country to really invest heavy on bitcoin economy. But Chinese coming back will not be the same when they are the dominant country behind bitcoin. Now we have Japan and other countries to back up the bitcoin ecosystem. They are still good to be around though, but we don't expect them to manipulate the price of bitcoin as they want to be. It wont happen now.

That is what I noticed too. Chinanese traders are known for their unpredictable nature and are extremely prone to gambling and risk.
Current Price Index Volatility of bitcoin is lowest than ever - Latest 60-Day Estimate is only 3.35%
I am afraid that when China will be fully back online they will try to start pump&dump roller coaster once again.

Do we have a timeline for resuming of full bitcoin withdrawal from chinese exchanges? Firm date or just vague "maybe in june"?

I couldnt care less about these trolls saying China doesnt matter. It does, it already did two years ago, when the bear market ended. Bitcoin is retesting ATH right now. Chinese getting onboard would send it straight to stratosphere. And dont mind the fact, that they have been lagging behind by around 15% in USD value. That difference would vanish overnight, making those who timed their longs well, rich overnight.

the first after china exchanger nomal withdraw again
bitcoin price with pair yuan, can equal price in USD, after several week bitcoin price in china can highest again, and bitcoin price can incraese very high, maybe incraese to 2000 dollar/bitcoin

Yes they are but very annoying one sometimes we must say that. But they are more LTC holders then bitcoin one, also they seek opportunity to earn more, like you mentioned they move from asset to asset in search for this goal. Sure they have big influence on the market price no question about but remember that once they were tricked when price in Europe went higher then on China market then was very bad for them but that only happen once.

it is an ongoing process so we can't possibly know a "firm" date on that. and it is a "maybe" at best. I believe near June, they start slowly resuming their full operation, maybe first ask their users to properly register and fully verify first and then open up some channels to slowly let in and out some money.

things will surely be under a lot of observation and restriction from PBoC, because the Chinese exchange have been naughtier than we thought ;)

According to the following article, regulations will be released in June:

http://btc-times.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchanges-can-resume-withdrawals-in-june/

It also said the following:


I presume that means the exchanges will get fined for breaking various laws. It remains to be seen how much the fine will be, whether they can afford to pay it, and whether they'll try to get the money for the fines from their customers.