Bitcoin Forum

Guess the price of bitcoin 2 hours after trading resumes on Mt.gox (highest bid price). Bets close when Mt.gox opens.

To make it a bit more interesting $10 via paypal for the nearest guess.

My bet $5

$3

14$

$0.50

$12.25

Just realised this isn't going to work since you can edit your posts.  :P

I will guess $10.15 since many people still buy when the price falls.

<-9000

I doubt Mt. Gox will be up tomorrow.

Average of Mt.Gox and Tradehill? Why not just Mt. Gox?

Eh...$7.23.

Since you edited to just Mt. Gox....6.15

$6.25, but this isn't going to work because we are all probably going to be right, at some point or another.

True.
@OP: How about 10 minutes after trading starts?
Thanks for the contest.

13.75

10.06

Ok 2 hours after trading resumes on Mt.gox.

More interesting to give it a bit of time to settle. I'm also writing down everyones bets so you can't edit.

11.58

TRUST ME

Just set a bet deadline and record everyone's bet at that time.

$15.50

$17.51

18.20

 :)

An optimist. Bravo.

10.22

People got kept away from their precious coins for so long that once they can get them again they'll pay any price, i'll bet on 50 bucks for kicks

12.45, I was going to say 12.10, but 12.45 because I don't want to entice a panic.

19.1

I think it'll be around $10.  Put lots of people are taking low numbers I'll put my bet on $33

I'm changing mine to 18.3. Many people will be withdrawing their Bitcoins instead of selling to all the new money flowing in.

11.60

Average bet so far $14.19

PLN/BTC = 37 -> USD/BTC = 13.25

$13.50

That actually sound about right. I wouldn't be surprised if it were one of the closest.

17.50, you can send me those 10$ in bitcoins.  ;)

I'm pretty sure I'm right with this guess.

$13 is the higher end, in my opinion. You guys really think there's more people itching to buy than itching to sell?

$114

http://www.bitprotection.info

A new high, $34

it will go down low, maybe 4 or 5 bucks but it will bounce right back up as ppl who realize that this was not an attack on the reasons why they invested in the first place buy right back in. it will be a nice redistribution of the wealth to those with foresight

2 hours after trade opens, op said.

√-2

20.00

9.77

17.00

8.55

38.5 PLN

Great to see an optimist.
The current rally from $13 still has legs?

Is 2 hours enough time to bounce back up that high?

When it comes online:  $17.50

If people are notified of the exact time it comes back online, within 2 hours it will be $5

If not notified in advance of opening time, within 2 hours it will be $9.40

$5.29

Still convinced it will be around 17.50 after 2 hours.
It will be no freefall and neither it will be skyrocketing after 2 hours.

10.00

16.92

When MtGox reopens I think you can buy, let's see... mana cards $0.2, counter-spells $0.5, donno there're a lot of Magic Cards and I don't play that in ages.
For Bitcoin... I really think they will have a somewhat hard time to regain confidence, so my aim is low there <10 USD

$0.90

13.85

I doubt the price will drop much, this isnt a bitcoin issue, it's an mtgox issue.
One issue with an exchange shouldnt make people lose trust in bitcoin as a system, but maybe some will lose trust anyway.

im guessing 17.50 USD

$13.37 ;)

9001 billion zimbabwe dollars

 :D ;D

About TREE FITTY...

a buck two eighty

a bucket and two pints...

14.32

9.99

MtGox won't be able to handle the amount of traffic it is about to receive.

Exactly.

When it comes back up, BTC will be worth 404

2 for .99 cents  ;D

We Should be asking what kind of order each of us plan on placing when the market opens.

At what price would you hit the 'buy' button?
We may get some very different answers.

But what really happened? 200-300 BTC and $1000 USD stolen... no big deal. I don't think price will drop that much. After all, Bitcoin will be stronger because of more secure exchanges.

$21.47

13.56

$8.88

It's going to be:

$17.5 as stated.


now where is my prize?

13.33

it doesn't matter where it opened. The 500K BTC selling pressure will continously push down the price..

Everyone will cash their BTC out of Mt. Gox, but they have no reason to panic sell.  Obviously growth prospects took I hit so I could see us back in the $13 range, but certainly not $5

Never trust a man that says "Trust me"

16.38

Hopefully it goes down to 0 so I can buy all of them for free.

I never sell, and even I want to sell so I can try and catch that knife. If the price doesn't go down, I'll dress in drag all day and go to work. I'm not fucking kidding.

11.46 bet placed at 10:57 central

MadduckUK   $ 0.50                                                      
Enochian   $ 0.90                                                      
cbeast   $ 1.82                                                      
sammoocow   $ 3.00                                                      
tehcodez   $ 3.50                                                      
oneforall   $ 4.00
piuk   $ 5.00                                                                                                            
RTJakarta   $ 5.29                                                      
JTaBitCoinKing   $ 6.25                                                      
IlbiStarz   $ 7.23                                                      
lemonginger   $ 8.55                                                      
elelegzet   $ 8.88                                                      
bullox   $ 9.40                                                      
Digigami   $ 9.77                                                      
sebdude420   $ 9.99                                                      
saqwe   $ 10.00                                                      
SgtSpike   $ 10.06                                                      
Bit_Happy   $ 10.15                                                      
Kid81   $ 10.22                                                      
h2ofusion   $ 11.46                                                      
TKE406   $ 11.58                                                      
firefox   $ 11.60                                                      
nemo   $ 12.10                                                      
DamienBlack   $ 12.25                                                      
jibjabz   $ 13.00                                                      
flug   $ 13.25                                                      
tulkos   $ 13.33                                                      
Isepick   $ 13.37                                                      
Slab Squathrust   $ 13.50                                                      
digdugg67   $ 13.56                                                      
pokermon919   $ 13.75                                                      
RomertL   $ 13.85                                                      
3txx   $ 14.00                                                      
The Bitburglar   $ 14.32                                                      
natobombs   $ 16.38                                                      
£   $ 16.40                                                      
trippp   $ 16.92                                                      
hex   $ 17.00                                                      
skull88   $ 17.50                                                      
kwukduck   $ 17.50                                                      
kjj   $ 17.51                                                      
FractalUniverse   $ 18.20                                                      
imperi   $ 18.30                                                      
joepie91   $ 19.10                                                      
Maria   $ 20.00                                                      
flyswatta   $ 21.47                                                      
opticbit   $ 33.00                                                      
Clipse   $ 34.00                                                      
TiagoTiago   $ 50.00                                                      
bitprotection   $ 114.00

Average bet  $15.3342

Lots of people predicting it will hold or even rise. Keep them coming.

$8

$14.47

13.69

and I only accept bitcoin, don't want any of that worthless fiat.

$4.99

$10.47

Price was at $17.5 when the party began. I don't see how an average prediction of $15.33 means that people thinks it will hold/rise. Moreover, aside from the average, I think the concentration is important too. There are many people guessing around $13 - $14.

I'll say $11.00 but don't take me into account for the paypal reward—I don't have a PP account.

My bet: 30$ +

A hell of a lot of people will want to get their money ot ouf Mt Gox because they lost trust in it.

The quickest way to et your money out is by bitcoins, not by Dwolla or bank transfers.

So evereyone with a few Dollars in there will actually buy into btc and withdraw.

Reopen has been pushed to 2am UTC tomorrow.

My bet: $15. But don't take me into account for a Paypal reward, I don't have an account.

17.01

13.32

$12.34

10.21

13.37

$6.17

Crap.  This should have been my first guess. 

0.01

$16.32

my guess. an immediate drop to about $10 fallowed buy and immediate jump to about $20. sellers may be panicked but buyers are rather excited.

x2

The only thing where I disagree is that in my prediction it will take about 4 or 5 days to reach $20 again

Immediate collapse to almost zero, followed by a bubble up to $30 again as buyers get excited.

So, after 2 hours I bet $22.03

6.9 USD

@piuk: Please don't post the average, post the median. The average is completely pointless. A single person claiming "LOL THIRTY QUADRILLION" has more weight than the entire forum posting reasonable numbers if you use average.

Funny, on a related note: Currently at bitmarket.eu, the highest EUR bids are all from days ago (some weeks ago) while the lowest asks are all from today and quite a sum away from the highest bids. Edit: Different now already again.

Will be interesting what happens when (if?) TH open their gates again in half an hour.

Average: $14.39
Median: $13.00

janedoe   $ 0.01
MadduckUK   $ 0.50
Enochian   $ 0.90
lardycake   $ 1.00
cbeast   $ 1.82
sammoocow   $ 3.00
tehcodez   $ 3.50
oneforall   $ 4.00
TonyHoyle   $ 4.99
RTJakarta   $ 5.29
nazgulnarsil   $ 6.17
JTaBitCoinKing   $ 6.25
Vandroiy   $ 6.90
IlbiStarz   $ 7.23
rocksalt   $ 8.00
lemonginger   $ 8.55
elelegzet   $ 8.88
bullox   $ 9.40
Digigami   $ 9.77
sebdude420   $ 9.99
saqwe   $ 10.00
SgtSpike   $ 10.06
Bit_Happy   $ 10.15
aop   $ 10.21
Kid81   $ 10.22
foreverD   $ 10.47
an0therlr3   $ 11.00
h2ofusion   $ 11.46
TKE406   $ 11.58
firefox   $ 11.60
nemo   $ 12.10
DamienBlack   $ 12.25
Prze_koles   $ 12.34
jibjabz   $ 13.00
flug   $ 13.25
Havoc   $ 13.32
tulkos   $ 13.33
Isepick   $ 13.37
iya   $ 13.37
Slab Squathrust   $ 13.50
digdugg67   $ 13.56
killer2021   $ 13.69
pokermon919   $ 13.75
RomertL   $ 13.85
3txx   $ 14.00
The Bitburglar   $ 14.32
foo   $ 14.47
zottel   $ 15.00
phatsphere   $ 16.32
natobombs   $ 16.38
£   $ 16.40
trippp   $ 16.92
hex   $ 17.00
BtcNmcMiner   $ 17.01
kwukduck   $ 17.50
skull88   $ 17.50
kjj   $ 17.51
FractalUniverse   $ 18.20
imperi   $ 18.30
joepie91   $ 19.10
Maria   $ 20.00
flyswatta   $ 21.47
martin   $ 22.03
qwk   $ 30.00
opticbit   $ 33.00
Clipse   $ 34.00
TiagoTiago   $ 50.00
bitprotection   $ 114.00
bullox   9001 billion zimbabwe dollars

I reckon when tradehill opens nothing much will happen, mt.gox normally sets the price and there will be too much uncertainty to trade properly without it.

15,7 $

$14.53

That would be a lottery. I bet that as soon as it reopens the site will be overwhelmed and the majority of orders will end up in the queue for at least 10 minutes before being executed.

The few people who actually manage to buy BTC for almost zero will be the ones who placed the order just in the right microsecond. 

I for one, am going to be clicking the refresh button like mad starting from 3 minutes before opening time.

$15.60

About 2.33 USD worth of electricity. (depending on your area and hardware)

$18.33

or the equivalent in BTC?

Mt.gox set the price in the past because 95 % of trades were made there. They will have way less customers when coming back.

Right where it left off...

Standings:

janedoe   $ 0.01
MadduckUK   $ 0.50
Enochian   $ 0.90
lardycake   $ 1.00
cbeast   $ 1.82
wegotpickles   $ 2.33
sammoocow   $ 3.00
tehcodez   $ 3.50
oneforall   $ 4.00
TonyHoyle   $ 4.99
RTJakarta   $ 5.29
nazgulnarsil   $ 6.17
JTaBitCoinKing   $ 6.25
Vandroiy   $ 6.90
IlbiStarz   $ 7.23
rocksalt   $ 8.00
lemonginger   $ 8.55
elelegzet   $ 8.88
bullox   $ 9.40
Digigami   $ 9.77
sebdude420   $ 9.99
saqwe   $ 10.00
SgtSpike   $ 10.06
Bit_Happy   $ 10.15
aop   $ 10.21
Kid81   $ 10.22
foreverD   $ 10.47
an0therlr3   $ 11.00
h2ofusion   $ 11.46
TKE406   $ 11.58
firefox   $ 11.60
nemo   $ 12.10
DamienBlack   $ 12.25
Prze_koles   $ 12.34
jibjabz   $ 13.00
flug   $ 13.25
Havoc   $ 13.32
tulkos   $ 13.33
Isepick   $ 13.37
iya   $ 13.37
Slab Squathrust   $ 13.50
digdugg67   $ 13.56
killer2021   $ 13.69
pokermon919   $ 13.75
RomertL   $ 13.85
3txx   $ 14.00
The Bitburglar   $ 14.32
foo   $ 14.47
aeroSpike   $ 14.53
zottel   $ 15.00
Bth8   $ 15.60
Crs   $ 15.70
phatsphere   $ 16.32
natobombs   $ 16.38
£   $ 16.40
Peter Lambert   $ 16.45
trippp   $ 16.92
hex   $ 17.00
BtcNmcMiner   $ 17.01
kwukduck   $ 17.50
skull88   $ 17.50
kjj   $ 17.51
FractalUniverse   $ 18.20
imperi   $ 18.30
bcearl   $ 18.33
joepie91   $ 19.10
Maria   $ 20.00
flyswatta   $ 21.47
martin   $ 22.03
qwk   $ 30.00
opticbit   $ 33.00
Clipse   $ 34.00
TiagoTiago   $ 50.00
bitprotection   $ 114.00

Median is $13.32, tradehill is currently at $13.42 8). Although i'm going to look into my crystal ball and predict some downward movement until gox is trading.

$ 7.65

$27.90

My guess, the wild oscillations will be from 9.00 - 17.00, with 20+ seven days later.

$ 15.03

Do not forget Mt.gox got alot of media attention in a positive-ish way since mostly they explained MT.gox & bitcoin are not hacked.

my guess is $13.13
unlucky might be lucky :D

This is a zero risk, one-way bet (you're offering free money in exchange for me throwing out a number), so I guess I have to post something.

I predict the Mt. Gox trading starts at the roll-back price of around $17.5 BTC and tons of people who have lost faith in BTC over the incident attempt to sell their bitcoins at the new price (which is about $7 higher than bitcoins are currently selling for). The market will quickly self-correct, however, and within 2 hours, my prediction is that the price will be:

$12.72

Ok, I've thought about this . . .

I am hereby selling my guess of $ 16.40 to the highest bidder, just think this choice piece of numerical real estate can be yours for a few pieces of Bitcoin.

Any reasonable offers accepted.

They've reset the order book, and bitcoincharts (http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD.html) show's the best bid/ask at 12.50/13.00, but no trade, yet.

$15.8289

Oh yeah it'll drop like a rock from $17.50 and might even go through another flash crash because Mt. Gox has pissed off some big holders. But I think it'll then recover higher than $17.50 and oscillate, settling in the 14-16 range. I just don't know if that will happen in as little as 2 hours.

Yes your logic makes 100% sense.

1.) MTGOX piss off bigholders
2.) Bigholders retaliate and sell their BTC for below market value
3.) Bitcoins crash
4.) Bigholders now hold nothing, and barely any $
5.) Evil comeback plan complete.

Do you see how stupid that looks? Why would you even consider that as a reason for a price crash?

I realisticly see no unusual drop, big holders are most likely not among the pissy potty comments from users who feel touched by the devil.

$27.8 due to the major media hit.

Staying with this still.

I'll buy it for 0.00000001 BTC.

I'm going with $13.50 since that's where the market seems to have been hovering lately anyway.

I don't expect a lot of pissed-off selling because, frankly, it's easier and faster to withdraw bitcoins than USD.

First, some big holders have indeed made pissy potty comments. Also, as I understand it, those without salted passwords are more likely old miners, so they would likely have more reason to distrust Mt. Gox. That, and bigger holders typically are involving a larger percentage of money that they realize, after not having access, that they can't comfortably gamble. In other words, bigger holder confidence will be less than those of us playing with chump change. Then again, big holders have been battle tested.

Also, I said "might" which indicates my confidence in my own carnie weight-guessing submission. I don't necessarily mean an intentional flash crash, either. It's more like this:

1) Big holders who have lost faith in Mt. Gox, but don't want to withdraw to other exchanges or into wallets are inclined to sell. Also, a lot of people are questioning whether Mt. Gox is now a fractional reserve that might not be able to pay out all accounts. To people that actually believe that (not me), getting money out of Mt. Gox soon is better than getting "market price."

2) The starting price is $17.50... with all prior bids cleared out beforehand. The only bids present will be are ones that people put up after getting account access back and before the market opening. So, there's most definitely a decreased pool of buyer dollars.

3) Mt. Gox said that bank transfers and such from the rollback period are given "pending status". So, I don't think many "new buyers" will be there at opening.

4) Current market price at other exchanges is well short of $17.50 and everyone knows it. When the price drops from $17.50, which it might do just from the arbitrage opportunity alone, it's not going to slowly level off at $14.50. Bitcoin has shown that when it drops, it tanks before it recovers, even when no manipulation is involved. Jesus, look at the lack of confidence of guesses in this very thread.

5)Hold on. What the hell, dude? At least I provided some sort of random reasoning to my guess. Why don't you pick on people who didn't provide any reasoning to their guesses. Hell, why don't you support your own guess so that I might tear it apart without actually providing any reasonable counterarguments other than a straw man fallacy? With neither useful patterns in the days prior to this opening or confidence in the exchange or the market, it's like you're saying that my favorite color really isn't blue like I think it is.

6)So anyway, while we're zooming from $17.50-$14.50, where tradehill seems to be, we'll at least touch $11.50. Then, what happens after that is going to be the deciding direction (e.g. if it halts around 11.50 and then starts dropping to 10.50, it's going to continue further for several more dollars. Or if it recovers to 12, it'll jump up 3 or 4 bucks).

Why do I guess this? Because, if $14.50 is what everyone believes market value is right now. Bitcoin, based on prior speedy drops during bearish periods, tends to come back and either quickly peak at or eventually settle at 33-50% of the high/low difference. For example, we went from 24 to 16 to 20. 19 to 15.5 to 17. 32 to 23 to 27. 6 to 4.6 to 5.5. During bullish periods, drops then go to 50-66% of the high/low difference. I don't know about trends after quick rallies, though. Anyway, to split the difference, I'm putting the key point at 50%, so $11.50 it is, and that's about where I'm putting half my bid money.

In other words, I'm guessing that if it does indeed drop below $11.50 and becomes a downward rocket. Because the exacerbating events in this opening compared to other speedy drops, I'm saying it'll go below that and do the flash crash thing as people realize that we've dropped more than twice the difference between $17.50 and $14.50. In other words, if we break below the pattern I outlined above, and I think we will, it'll be a cue for a lot of people to just 'get out and get what they can'. Hell, there's probably still some account security issues, so who knows if some bitcoin thief will need to quickly sell and transfer for reasons completely unrelated to the market.

7) Okay, to continue this string of shitty assumptions. That potential crash below $11.50 will bottom at the 5 support. The potential for massive profits is too great for any momentum below 5, especially after seeing what those with low bids were able to profit after Sunday's flash crash. Those that sold early on wanting to get back in at a lower position will be buying here.

8) Then it'll rally. $11.25 is the key point as far as I'm concerned, as it's 50% of the difference between 17.5 and 5. It'll recover from the crash from $11.50 back to $11.25 over like an hour. Then, as people see that a real bottom exists, that it didn't go to zero, and that it recovered nicely, it'll rally, but with timidity. Those who sold out will be sitting there with lots of USD, wanting to get back into the game now that they know that bitcoin is not dead. But, due to people leaving Mt. Gox, even if there was the same confidence as there was when it was $17.50 before the flash crash, there would be less buyer money period. This is because, after the start of the market, people will be more likely to withdraw newly-exchanged USD rather than bitcoins. Those who moved bitcoins to wallets will have done so before the market opening.

So, I chose $15.8289 because it's between 14 and 17.50. Even if everyone who participates has the same the pre-rollback market confidence, there will be less participants due to lack of confidence in Mt. Gox. So, I'm thinking less than $17.50, more than the 14 dollars that I think the other exchanges will be at before the opening.

Well, that and I closed my eyes and randomly moved my mouse around a historical chart of the past month and it it was 15.8289 when I opened them. Then I tried to come up with some reasoning as to why that's a good number.

If you'd like, I can do the same for other numbers. I could probably write 500 words on why it's going to be $13.75.

I bet they're just waiting until the price hits 17.51 again. I mean, it's almost there already.

88.67