Bitcoin Forum

   I was reading some articles today which pointed towards such a conclusion, just curious what others think about this notion.

Both are in a bubble. Ethereum is in a much bigger bubble.

The bigger the bubble the sooner it will burst, just any day now. While for bitcoin I think we are used to the bubble blowing and bursting, people who invested a lot in ETH might get surprised.

if this is a bitcoin bubble it's unlike any other one that's gone before.

the ethereum bubble is so obviously a bubble i can't believe everyone hasn't already cut and run.

With Bitcoin, when it gets a very high raise and then falls, it usually falls to a value above the starting value. So even if it is inflated, it ends up a little higher. I remember it going from 450- something to 800, then back to 535 for example. Sometimes it does go very low but that requires very bad news.

I do not know much about ethereum... just seems everybody is talking about it lately.

The bubble form in a sudden hype mode for a short period of time will easily be popped up. It can be created again and the cycle repeats until it will grows as big.

The bubble form in a continous support alongside with the hype mode will not easily be popped but in case that there's hole it was being repaired in no time so it will not deflate more so the bubble will grow more.

That is my understanding and hope you get the picture. :)

What is your conclusion then? Mind sharing it.

Both are in bubble but the comparison is how thick their bubble is. ETH bubble is thin and just experienced only few negative news while on progress. Bitcoin on the other hand surpass all negative events that comes to it and there are still many problems in the future but surely it can keep up. As a result, it makes it's bubble so much thick and will be much thicker in the future once main issue on it will be fixed or given a light solution.

Can you share links to these articles please?


What's your rationale for the bubble? Just saying so doesn't do much to make the rest of us understand or believe you.

Why? How? What's the obvious symptoms of bubble that you're seeing? Or more importantly, why do you think Ethereum isn't worthy of it's current value?

---

A lot of people don't understand what Ethereum is offering. Ether isn't a monetary currency, it's a processing power currency. Anyone comparing Ethereum to Bitcoin as two different versions of the same type of currency doesn't understand what Ethereum is.

Read their website, it's really informative: https://www.ethereum.org/ (https://www.ethereum.org/)

over 40x increase in a handful of months. icos that no one understands selling out in seconds. r/ethtrader filled with thousands of posts a day about buying lambos.

does any of that smell like business as usual?

There's a set of conditions on the charts that happen only during bubble times.

I outline and compare them to the most recent bubble from 2013 here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1967662.0) for Bitcoin.

As for Ethereum, it is evident to the untrained eye. See posting above mine.

True. Ethereum has been pumped infinitely and the dump is inevitable for this coin. Only traders who did trading love Ethereum as it made them money but now the price is falling down slowly. Everyone is realizing that the pump is going to go back to where it once was or at about 0.02-0.03 bitcoin and not more.

The thing with bubbles is, nobody really knows it exists until it bursts. There are so many anonymous investors that could be susceptible to removing money if the major economies start to fail. There are larger boom and bust waves around the world - when they hit the US or Europe, it might plummet or rocket further. Digital currencies seem too new to predict

At one point Litecoin hit around $50, then about 14 months later it bottomed out at around a $1 each. I expect the crash on Ethereum may even be worse.

Another way of looking at Ethereum: Bitcoin at least had a few small crashes before the long crash after the peak around Nov 2013. Ethereum has never been through a big crash before and a crazy amount of money has gone into. The Ethereum community has only seen FOMO and MORE MORE MORE. They have grown arrogant. It will crash hard.

Don't get me wrong, I think Ethereum has a future. Maybe I will even buy a few when the price drops below $5 later next year.

The grammar is not correct and it's very important for the context. "a bubble" means it is a bubble within itself, like the very thing is a bubble, in this sense "a bubble" is basically "a ponzi".

You should say "in a bubble", this means that the price is temporarily to high to what it should be.

In the first context, then yes, ETH is fucked in my book in it's very fundamentals.

As far as the price goes, I also think it's bubbled, but calling the top of a bubble is hard task, since some bubbles can take years to pop, so I can't just say to people to dump their ETH because who knows, it could it $1000 if the hype continues indefinitely.

both of them were in a bubble, bitcoin a small bubble and etehreum in a much bigger bubble.
bitcoin's bubble busted and it is now over but ethereum's bubble never did, the price has been going down mostly because of the bug and panic but the burst has not started yet.

etherum (ETH) down price because many problem about transaction
i thin first problem in ETH about transaction same with bitcoin, etherum this now is very high sending transaction

A more accurate statement would be that the crypto market is in a bubble

this part is the problem!
sometimes it is too obvious that a price is in a bubble. for example the case of most of the altcoins, including ethereum. but sometimes it is not possible. and those who are saying bitcoin is or is not in a bubble are saying random guesses. the question is "what is the price of bitcoin at this point or what should it be?" and there is no easy answer for this, the intrinsic value of bitcoin is not something you can just put a number on. saying it is $2000 or $2800 or $1500 and then decide whether it is in a bubble or not.

but how can we calculate what the price should be ???

Either Cryptocurrencies are in a bubble, or the tech is going to scale up at a rapid pace to match the current market capital of the whole entire series.
Eth is just leveraged in that all the little assets in it add up to the value of it.
If those internal ones become worthless then its a bubble or if they become useful then it is not.

All the altcoins are in a MASSIVE bubble!
This includes Vitalium a well of course!Totally overvalued and I see it going below $100 easily!!
Bitcoin was growing parabolic in some phases but always has seen bigger corrections.Imo Bitcoin was not/is not really in a bubble so far.
This however does not mean that the actual price will hold. A look at the weekly chart and some indicators show us, that a dump to $1300 could be possible. We've never tested this area as a support level after the breakout. So a huge pullback could definitely happen.
And if it holds, we would still be in a bullish trend!

when prices go up based on real demand you can not really consider that rise a bubble. for bitcoin this demand has been mostly real from new investors with fresh money that came in based on all the new changes in the world such as legalization/regulation of bitcoin in Japan, then the green light from Russia and the proposal of removal of taxes on bitcoin in Australia, the new regulation in China, ... all these people came in and they are real demand that will keep the price up.
that also means the value of bitcoin goes higher so those mentioning intrinsic value of bitcoin should consider the new level caused by new demand.

    I studied the global financial system so I fully understand bitcoins potential, and I also understand its utilities for a number of purposes.

   I read that a mutual fund manager got in early on ethereum, and anyone who can wield that kind of capital could probably engineer a pump and dump of this magnitude.

   My hunch is a lot of the ICOs are going to be unable to perform, and investors are going to get impatient, there will probably be a series of scams, and people are going to start realizing that they acted on emotion and put huge amounts of money into projects they didn't understand and start thinking "What if I got scammed too?"

   This will cause people to start dumping even legitimate tokens, which may cause a rush- ICO development will realize that if the value of their ETH is hit hard enough, they will not be able to afford to complete their project, and if this happens it will lead to some projects being cancelled which will just add to the general panic in a vicious cycle.

Hundreds of millions if not billions of ETH are tied up in ICOs, decreasing supply in a period of frantic demand, and this ether is going to start bleeding back on to the market, putting further pressure on the price  

    I have listened to Vitalik Butemin's talks, and I keep starting threads asking for explanation, but I can never quite dispel the feeling that the potential of Ethereum is a bit like the emperor's new clothes. Really, I'm fairly educated and patient, but I simply can't see advantages which justify this price growth. Really, this seems to be at least 90% pure speculation, and I don't believe ethereum has nearly the proportion of 'true believers' or 'strong hands' that Bitcoin does.

   I am really trying to keep an open mind, and I would be happy to be proven wrong- personally I want to see the success of crypto in general, I am not particularly attached to any coin,  but really I see a perfect $%*& storm brewing here.


      Please, someone correct me if I am wrong. These ICO's represent numerous side chains on the ETH blockchain, right? Has anyone ever tried running dozens of massive side chains on any blockchain? Talk about scaling issues, doesn't this mean the amount of data required to run the blockchain will be increasing dramatically?

   Every single ETH project I read about sounds marginally useful, at best. I am 110,000% open to being proven wrong, but I've been around the stock market and small businesses most of my life and studied economics, and I realy believe I know a viable business model when I see one.

    Bitcoin in itself is a deathblow in terms of disruption to remissions, gold bugs, inflationary currencies, capital controls, drug dealers, and other black marketeers, and will continue to be preferred for ransomware attacks due to relative ease of acquisition and infrastructure in place. As almost all Ethereum supporters point out, ETH is not meant to challenge any of these roles of bitcoin, but all of these aspects of bitcoin make it clear to me how literally trillions of dollars could pour into bitcoin, but I don't underdstand why this would happen with ETH.

   I really feel the sentiment driving ETHs price growth is the feeling that "I missed the boat" with bitcoin and here comes the next bitcoin. The reality, though, is that bitcoin is just getting started, and a lot of what is stopping people from buying BTC is that they are still thinking in BTC rather than Satoshis. I mean, people think, "I can't even afford one bitcoin" instead of "I can afford a quarter million Satoshis!"

     This, coupled with the fact that smart contract functionality really seems to sound like the most convincing property that could "improve" on bitcoins blockchain, and the endless speculation that bitcoin surely won't be the crypto, is leading to an absolutely greed driven run up. And with greed comes fear.

     I never feared for the potential of bitcoin, and there is no price at which I would have panic sold. I simply can't say the same for Ethereum, but as I said, I am still waiting for a single case use example that can really show me that the long term potential is a fraction that of bitcoin.


    Honestly, when I read a story about Ethereum being used by the UN to distribute aid to Syrian refugees, it really got me wondering. This, coupled with the big money behind Butemin, and the fact that the supply of ether is not fixed, really makes me wonder if Ethereum is not the global elite's response to bitcoin, although this goes down the conspiracy road.

     The ethereum craze seems to me to be the culmination of the shift of media attention from bitcoin to blockchain. This shift seemed to be somewhat coordinated, and at the same time numerous central banks started experimenting with blockchain.

    I believe firmly that bitcoin is a threat to the present financial elite, and I also know they are not going to take this lying down.

     A fixed quantity currency won't work, because the MO of central banks is to steal value by dilluting the value of the currency, and controlling the issuance of the currency is the only way to do this. The rising difficulty with bitcoin makes such an assault nearly impossible, but this would not be the case with proof of stake, to which ETH is currently transitioning. ETH has a gimmick in the form of smart contracts that could allow it to take over market dominance from bitcoin, and still have all the benefits of bitcoin, while being tweaked just a little in order to set it so the current elite can quietly control and manipulate it far more effectively than bitcoin, thereby making sure not too much more power slips from their grasp.

     I mean really, lets say I belong to a family thay controls a big part of global finance, and possibly influences the governance of most of the central banks of the world. I learn then that a deflationary, decentralized currency has been invented that is starting to eat market share from my currencies. (And yes, providing currency is a service- just one that we have taken for granted is monopolized).

      Upon researching, I would realize the blockchain has real utility and can provide efficiency gains. So I would instruct all of the banks under my control to implement the block chain tech independently to claim the efficiency gains without causing bitcoin to capture any more of my market share.

    As bitcoin continued growing, I would have to find a way to make sure it stays a fringe movement, and at the same time create a currency that offered people whatever it is they like about bitcoin, but that I can influence and dillute.

     Sorry, I don't know how a comment on whether or not ETH is in a bubble turned into a conspiracy rant. It really wouldn't be this way if someone could just please give me a rock solid example of a revolutionary and highly disruptive ETH use case that could compare even remotely to the potential of bitcoins disruption of the financial sector.

http://www.coindesk.com/analyzing-ether-bitcoin-investors-skeptical-take/

http://hackingdistributed.com/2017/06/19/bancor-is-flawed/

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN19D200

   For example, civic- an ID verification service that uses its own token to... verify ID's.

   PLEASE can anyone explain to me why this can only work with ether, why a company would want to buy Civic's special token for ID verification, and have to manage seperate accounts or wallet? What am I missing?

     I guess I just have to keep saying it louder until somebody comes and walks me through it with baby steps

It smells like it is time to get out and lock the profits. News has it that deposits and withdrawals of some ICO tokens were disabled by the exchanges because Ethereum's backlog is getting too large.

There is second law of bubbles as well: the longer the bubble last the longer it will take to burst.
Why I meant is that I consider fiat money to be a bubble too. Considering that in the past every global currency reserve has fallen:
http://www.economicreason.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/global-reserve-currencies2.png
We just have to wait a bit more to see USD collapse as well.

not the ICos but the ethereum itself. they have disabled all the deposits and withdrawals of ETH because ethereum blockchain apparently has so many problems right now and transaction delays are getting very long.

and you will never hear the failures of ethereum on the main board, you just keep hearing the words flippening and big market cap! and all the while price of ether is dropping hard!

BTC might still be in a bubble and can still crash to around 1000$ in my opinion, however long term I think it will go higher than now, so if you can suffer the crash, it's worth it.

ETH, I'm much less confident and wouldn't put any serious money into it. The hard fork has scarred me (and I wasn't affected as I didn't own any).

So are you shorting right now?

I am really shocked to see 85% voted for "YES". I think both are pretty possible to be a bubble. This voting diesn't mean a thing to me actually, cause of I know that the most people on the forum are just here for making money and they don't get in the poin with the head.

BTC heading for a healthy correction down to 1500$, I sold at 2700$ a couple of days ago and already placed buy orders above 1500$. ETH on the other hand is done for this year. not all alts will take a beating though. legitimate innovation such as Byteball still has a lot of growth potential

Ethereum seems to be crashing hard now. Vitalik is losing it on twitter lately with some strange tweets. Also, it is said that the flash crash that happened the other day, was a massive selloff that came from the genesis block, so it could have been Vitalik or one of the close friends that were at the beginning of the genesis block that got the insane amount of 72 million ETH... what a mess.

Ethereum was a bubble and it was said from long on but no one listened , the developer developed the coin and left it. when recently their was a dump everyone realized it and now crying about ethereum being scam coin. Vitalik have itself declared that what ever he has made profits will diversify to fiat currency and real world economy and not in crypto currency as he itself dont have faith on crytpcurrency.

ETH is not a bubble but an extensive and heavily backed pump, Bitcoin was in a bubble but as people started to see how useful it could be for storing

The value and specially international transfers and a large group of new comers from the middle levels of society simply because of a few countries

Announced officially about adopting Bitcoin the bubble has turned into a sphere with solid floors, Did you know if people stop panic selling the price

Could never fall? what makes it to drop if you tell me? if all the coin holders and owners never sell lower $2800 do you think price will reach there?

I believe so. where are the mining farms of ETH? mostly people are solo mining it in their homes and basements or garages unlike Bitcoin with

Transparent miners, ETH miners are faceless individuals and there are no faces to blame when something goes wrong like how we're blaming Wu

And others for high fees.

What I would say is that bitcoin is less of a bubble than ethereum is.

Ethereum has risen 5-6x in bitcoin terms when bitcoin has risen 6x at least itself in the past few weeks. So this indicates that ethereum has basically shot up from the $10-20 range to all the way up to 400+.

The question is, how can ETH not be a bubble? It was less than 10 billion of breaking bitcoin's market capitilaziton when it was having network congestion issues due to a few ICOs. If the network is so fragile, then what will happen during mass adoption of EThereum?

Bitcoin on the other hand even though has scaling problems, has a much wider community. The price right now is high, but not unjustified. After all, Japan, Australia, and now INdia are all legalizing BTC. That accounts for at least 1/5 of the world population already that legalizes bitcoin.

why $1500?
i have also sold around $2700 and some at $2900 but i don't get why some people say prices below $2000. so far the $2K showed a very good resistance under normal circumstances and these big round numbers are known to form a nice physiological resistances whether it is breaking $2000 to go down or breaking $3000 to go up.

Last resistance becomes the next support. we haven't had a proper consolidation since 1000-1500 range. I admit buy order at 1500 seems kind of far fetched but we must consider panic sellers. it might just touch 1500 for a couple of minutes. If we hover at 1800$ for a week or so I will just buy in of course. but since we haven't even touched 2k yet holding a buy order at 1500 is better than having no buy order at all. you never know (fat fingers for example) ;)

Doesn't matter how many percent of people say yes or no. The real point is the sum of the people who voted is only 37. So this is really small amount for  considering anything.

I actually think that is the case. 420$ for ethereum was extremely overpriced and it has nearly dropped 50% since. So yes ethereum is in a speculative bubble for sure. I saw ethereum was featured on CNBC so that confirms all the hype and excitement. Bitcoin is nowhere nere a bubble yet. Bitcoin will be in a bubble when your parents start using it.

die Ethereum die. worst coin ever  ;D
oh happy day, been saying this all the time, now is the time when hyena gets to smear it on the faces of all those delusional eth fanboys
eth was from scratch the refuge of butthurt people who didn't buy btc when it was cheap.

if you have sold your eth and made a lot of money on it, then congratulations. there's nothing wrong in making smart trades and growing your wealth like that.

flippening will still happen though --- the flippening of ETH and ETC  ;D

False!

Ethereum is proving itself to be what it meant to be: a smart contract infrastructure. Recent increase in ETH price was because of the ICOs gathering almost a $billion or so in the past month. For this fundings,  people had to 'buy' ETH, it is not a bubble, it is actual demand. Now this ICOs are trying to exchange their 'income' to finance the projects or just to spend a little more, it is where the trouble begins, there is no more demands. Looks like a ponzi scheme, but it is not. It is a whole new phenomenon that I have not studied its every details and the market is just experiencing it.

On the other side, bitcoin is transforming from a currency(its promise) to a digital asset with a limited supply. This is new too, a failed currency becoming an asset, like an antique coin in a collection, It will preserve the value as long as there are collectioners out there competing for the possession. It is not a bubble too.

not at all.
ethereum failed at smart contracts multiple times. DAO exploited it easily, another one caused a Canadian exchange lose 14 million dollar, recently the smart contracts caused the network to fail and get clogged up to the extent that caused all the transactions to be delayed.

as you said but partly backwards, there is no real demand, the demand was from those ICOs that forced people to buy ETH tokens and cause the bubble.

and many of the ICOs have not yet even started selling their tokens to cause the real dip. this drop is mostly because of the fails of last weak combined with bitcoin price falling, because any time bitcoin goes down all the altcoin go with it.

ETH is getting mauled by new kids in the block. Byteball has way better smart contracts because in Byteball you don't have to be even a programmer to make your own smart contracts, it's been made so easy for the end users who need rather simple contracts anyway. no one is going develop an operating system on the ethereum vm. it was a nice experiment and it failed. time to be mature about it and move on to other more promising projects.

I see I'm not the only one not bothering with ETH. I wish I had bought some hundreds at 10$ though, and sold at 300$, what a gain that would have been !

That happened with most of the crypto-currencies. If you remember, in 2010, the price of Bitcoin was just around $0.001 per coin (as per the exchange rates from New Liberty Standard, the only Bitcoin exchange of that time). The rates went up to $0.10 per coin later that year and in 2013 BTC attained a peak valuation of $1,230 per coin. The increase was even higher than that with Ether.

It seems to me that every coin has such a period of sharp price growth. And after such a jump, the price grows slowly. But this does not mean that such a coin to buy late. This means that it is suitable for long-term investment

That is a bad sign. But those newbies in Ethereum will learn the truth sooner or later and find out they have been decieved by the shills trying to pump the price.

It is time for everyone to realize that Ethereum has not reached the level of Bitcoin's adoption and yet it has worse problems at scaling.

Yep, but actual price will be low in a few years

Both are in bubbles, but Ethereum is in big one while bitcoin is in small one. As soon as they'll burst, bitcoin might climb down to $1500 but Ethereum will go all the way downhill to $100.

going down to $1500 is nearly -50% drop from the ATH. so you either say bitcoin is in a huge bubble which needs to burst and go down to $1500 or you say it is in a small bubble and busts to go down to a much higher price like $2000-2100 for example (still -27-30% and big).

which one is it?

Posted this on reddit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6jnqso/to_all_you_eth_fanboys_out_there/

those ETH fanboys are so pathetic little butthurt fuckers. they are already downvoting this thread like little bitches. simply pathetic, but was well expected.


BTC bubble hasn't even started. a drop down to 1500 is a much needed correction to establish this as a base price where to consolidate before going after 5k.

In Bitcoin world, 50% might not be that big a bubble, or that big a crash. It has gone so high in so short an amount of time ! Some people are thinking that 2000+ is the new normal, but only a few months ago it was so much lower !

Exactly, people have been calling bitcoin a bubble every since it existed.

But Ethereum, it's only been around for less than half the time that bitcoin has existed, and it's already got over 2/3 of bitcoin's market capitalization? Whilst having extremely bad congestion issues? Am I crazy or what???

Besides, Ethereum Classic in my opinion is definitely undervalued. People don't seem to realise that Ethereum classic was the token that they bought into when they signed up for the ICO.

 Ethereum's market capitalization should not be more than half of the Bitcoin. Ethereum project is still pretty new and not proven to work efficient for ICO's. ICO's made Ethereum get more popular and pricey, but time will show, if these ICO's would really prove that Ethereum is a good platform for smart contracts and public offerings.

i say this was a very good experience and it turned out very good too. with ethereum's failure and with its price falling and their fake news fading from the media it opens up room for many other similar projects to come out and start showing their power and how they are much better than ethereum for smart contracts and maybe even those that deserve it and are really good at it become big.

I am going to make a prediction here, so I can reference it later:

Ethereum will drop to below $10/each before the end of 2018

I also think there is a 50/50 chance that Ethereum will drop below $5/each.

 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Its true.Even if bitcoin price falls down after its price rise,it would be much higher than its starting price.Since bitcoin has universal users now,its not manipulated by chinese like before.But it is not the case with ethereum.It does not have users universally.Its mostly pumped to reach high price.So it may burst any time.

Yeah, once bitcoin manipulation was under the hands of Chinese miners and the exchanges. This went out of hands just because of the fake price pumping they make to profit. Now things has changed a lot, each and every price move is based on the users participation along with the technology advancing. With ethereum too we cannot say it's entirely a bubble, because even after big pumping it is sustaining without falling to the ground.

Would you mind linking us to the article that you read?

I would agree to some degree. I believe that bitcoin at $2900 was definitely a bubble, but at $2500 is sort of just the natural variation zone of bitcoin. I mean so many governments have legalized bitcoin as well, so this pump is not unjustified and downright a bubble.

But for Ethereum, what has changed apart from more ICOs using it as a way to get funding? Nothing. And plus, the Bancor ICO nearly crashed the whole system because it's not scalable enough. So yes, i think that Ethereum is definitely in a bubble, bitcoin was in a bubble, but the adjustments already came and price looks healthy.

The main difference between these two is that bitcoin has real usage in the real world, merchants accepting it, countries legalizing it, funds offering it as an investment method, whilst EThereum is purely speculative.

you could say that both are speculative bubbles, but bitcoin is more of a healthy rise in price, rather than Ethereum. Of course, when bitcoin does get overpriced, an adjustment will be necessary to bring the price to its normal levels.

Plus, bitcoin rose like only 2-3x from the start of the year, and ETH went from like $30 to $400+. So the extent of the bubble in Ethereum is much larger, and the fact that it nearly exceeded bitcoin is just disgusting.

it never was under that hands of anyone.
it was all conspiracy theories spread by FUDsters to increase panic and earn bigger profit from the panicky situation.
the fact is when Chinese exchanges were shut down and stayed shut down for a couple of months, bitcoin still continued the same path as before with the same fast rises and fast dumps. and nothing has changed at all. bitcoin is still rising the same way, and falling the same way too.

for example there is no difference between the rise from $500 to $750 and the rise from $2000 to $2900

From a peak of about $400 down to just over $200. Can we say 50% drop so far? At this rate, it will reach my goal of $10 before the end of the year. I will buy one Ethereum at $10 for good luck and an additional Ethereum at every 20% drop from there.

What bubbles are you talking about?
Both barely register among stocks (midcap, not even large cap), forget about asset classes the smallest of which (precious metals) is above 8 trillion.
Yahoo alone run to 150 bil market cap in 2000.

New money is about to enter the fray.
Will they try to drop crypto 50-70% before entering?
Perhaps, but it is equally plausible that crypto (btc, eth) will end the year 200-400% higher.

ethereum is  one of those alts that you know has something big coming for it (a big dump that is) because of all the ICOs that people were happily participating in for the past few months and were creating the huge bubble, now there is a lot of ether tokens waiting to be dumped on the market. they just have to reach the time when their escrow expires.

Yes, ethereum is a bubble, a big bubble is affecting a lot of other altcoins. However, bitcoin is the biggest bubble, it covers the entire virtual currency market, it affects all the altcoins. Bitcoin is a real bubble.