Bitcoin Forum

How can you know it is the last dip? What are the specific signs that a coin is getting back up?

More specific, when can I know that Bitcoin reached its lowest low (for this timeframe) and it will continue its steady growth from there?

Sorry for the noob question, I'm looking for an entry point for a long-term Bitcoin investment. I feel that trying to dig into trading theory right now would be too much for what I need. I'm just looking to maximize my profits in this specific situation.

Any tip would be much appreciated. Thank you

Here is the simple answer: You can't. But you can try to estimate by several technical analysis indicators.

Fibonacci retracements

Double bottoms

Cup n handle

MACD

RSI

Channels

Those are the ones I use for TA, but this sector is a very new one, things can change fast, so look at the fundamentals too (news etc).


I wouldn't say anything is clear after October. I think everything will be ok, there will be no hardfork.

We will get segwit soon, and I expect a rise.

Im just holding long term and not doing any trading so good luck.

Thank you for your reply, cellard:)

I know you can't know for sure, but there are certain techniques through which you can predict with a certain probability, as you mention above. This is what I was afraid of, I can't really digest all these analyses in such a short time and successfully apply them.

I'm not questioning the Bitcoin eligibility, on the contrary, I want to buy more. But I don't know when? Now at $2400? Wait for the 2000 dip? Even at a lower price?

Nobody knows for sure, but I'd like to know, by watching the charts when can I be 51% sure it won't go lower than that, it is already going up, I need to buy. Do you have any tips from your experience with bitcoin?

It's likely that the rally is over and we won't be seeing any other ATH any time soon. Perhaps speculators are scared of a potential chain split and the fact that Core's UASF is met with resistance is leading many away from Bitcoin.

Theres no way to determine if that is the final time for the dip. Its more on a gut feel, when you are starting to see bitcoins price is increasing a little bit. Observation is what you need to do for it. Its what I do, checking it from time to time. Also another good basis is if you are going to depend to the charts.

There's no specific way to know when is the last dip of bitcoin only news can give us idea when the price can be increase more or the price can be fall depends on the news..
Even you are analyze its not 100% that you can give a exact speculation if this is a last dip or not ..
There are whales out there that can manipulate the price or panic selling because of bad news..

Thank you for the straight forward replies

@alani The news are so negative right now. They're scaring away all the newcomers. This is why such a small percent use cryptocurrencies...

@boyptc Gut feel, yeah, I can't rely on mine. I'm not in for a long time. But for example, when NMR reached $100, one guy on discord said "there will be one more hump to $130-150 then it will dump" - It happened! I know, everyone is saying something and it can be only luck or coincidence. But he said he knows how to recognize the P&D, and the pattern applies. Looking for a pattern :\

@socks From what I heard, whales can't manipulate btc so easy. At least not as easy as they're doing with alts. I don't think will get any positive news on btc any time soon^^

We are getting  a lot of positive news lately. India legalising, IMF encouraging cryptos, Governments experimenting

Oh, forgot about India. That's a big one. But this is general, I mean, right now when everything is falling. There are no positive news to stop everyone from selling. Most of the first time buyers who came intro crypto because of eth news, sadly, they won't come back after this crash.

you can never know that is why you speculate about the future, if you think bitcoin price will rise to above the current price then you buy, and wait for that rise.

if it goes down you still hold.
if it goes down more than your stop loss you can sell and buy back at a lower price.
if it goes up then you have bought in the dip so you win.

its impossible to tell because the price is constantly changing +ve/-ve

Early signs are usually based on speculations and positive news that excites bitcoiners

all you need is to know how to read charts to see the lowest trade value and the good part is its publicly viewable

I want to know the last dip too.

but things don't turn out the way you want. I was lose a few in lsat month.

apart from all the TA that you can use, you can also know that at first the dips are based on correction, like what we saw this month. price went up too high and it needed a correction so about a 30% drop happened. you usually can look at these percentages and have a good idea where they would stop. for example compare it with other times.

then any further drop depends on bad news. right now there are none. but we can never predict the future, we may see bitfinex get hacked again :)

also if you want to do a long term investment then buy in the dips. for instance you should have bought yesterday when price went down to $2300 ish. and don't go all in. for example if you want to invest $1000 then you could have bought half or $300 bitcoin yesterday and waited to see what happens then bought another half or $300 and another $400 later. (2x $500 or 3x $300+300+400)

in short you should never expect to find the absolute bottom to go all in, you invest little by little to both not lose any opportunity and not lose much money in case it dropped more.

Yeah, you can't. So you need to understand how the movement of bitcoin is impacting your investing objectives and make buy or sell decisions as a result.

The first thing is to know what the objectives are for your money. How quickly do you need to see gains? How much in gains are you expecting (or needing)?

The second thing is thinking about the viability of bitcoin in the market. Is it still something that people want? Does it serve a purpose? Does it have value? Is there an opportunity for more people to enter the market?

Finally, you can study the price movement, which is a reflection of supply and demand behavior over time - folks in the investing world call this technical analysis. Technical analysis can see daunting, but it's actually pretty simple. Here's a tutorial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlZRtQkfK04 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlZRtQkfK04)

Some people will see the dip as too much to handle and they'll sell. Others see the dip as an opportunity, and they'll buy in to the fall.

The principle of "buy low, sell high" is always the objective, but only if you have the stomach to handle what's happening on your screen, the paper gains and losses.

@BrewMaster Buying little by little is indeed a great advice. I will totally do that. Thank you


@HabBear Your questions help me a lot, very good insights. I'll ty to dig in into the fundamentals, I'm going to watch your recommended tutorial right now. Thank you very much!

Let's remain positive. I think we may have a temporal downtrend until all the drama is resolved, but im very bullish in the way things are developing. UASF has pretty much won by forcing segwit into the system. BUcoin is no longer on the picture, this shows UASF worked.

Newbies are exaggerating and they still think august 1st is a deciding day when it's not, things will go smooth and we will scale. There will be no hardfork. I give it a 1% opportunity of that happening.

We cannot calculate the final dip of the price, because the price fall gets started anywhere as well gets ended anywhere. We cannot make any manipulation, because the price is always moving with correspondence to the ongoing demand and supply variance.

although no one know about that, either the price will increase or decrease  and if it is decreasing then how much will it drop but we do trade on speculation and our own speculation.

That's reason why we call it "speculation". Noone can predict this exact point or line.. Markets dont work with human  logic. Only fear and greed can create this dip and tops, human emotions can be tracked on the charts.

you are welcome.
and today you can clearly see why i said that.
by the time i wrote that comment the price was coincidentally at the absolute bottom ($2291 @bitstamp) ;D

yeah right its just our own assessment that bring us to buy and to allow our fortune if we assess it right since value is prone to big fluctuation and buying while its in dip is really hard to predict whether it will bounce back or it will go deeper, assuming that you are in a long term investor i think there's no need to worried as long as you will hold for sure it will bounce back.

We will never know when is the last dip of bitcoin since  bitcoin keeps on fluctuating like crazy due to the high volatility of bitcoins.  Even the known method to predict bitcoin movement often times cannot predict the trend of bitcoin and sometimes even good news does not help with bitcoin prices.  So I guess to know about the movement we should keep our watch on it in daily basis and react accordingly.

First of all you must understand that trading is full of speculation. Even a trader who is into trading for decades, could never catch exact low or high points, this is how trading will be working. Even some traders catching exact low/high prices, there will be no surety that they can repeat the same for next day too.

So, never try to buy at only at lower prices, it may disappoint you. The good practice is, buying now for partial capital and waiting for another dip to happen or else you may buy again in the rising prices too.

How was that good practice to buying now for partial capital? Are you saying buying at any time? That's not really good practice for trading. Not really. The best thing to do is always wait for that big dip whenever prices went up really quick. That's the best time to buy. If you see a quick 20% drop then that's likely the best time to buy. Since from what I always see from bitcoin prices this is the rule.

It is an absolute impossibility to pin point what will be the bottom of a current downtrend on Bitcoin's price because Bitcoin is uncertain at all times. Some might give you a correct answer but it is a pure luck and coincidence. It is difficult to keep track and be aware of all the happenings in the cryptosphere. However, past experiences may help in having a good decision in buying and selling Bitcoin. History shapes the future. It may be difficult to learn these tactics but in the end it will go only from your instinct.

There is simply no way to tell.

The "low" point is extremely hard to grasp. You have to understand the price is simply an agreement between two users to conduct a trade. The actual lowe point will only be done by 1 pair of traders - out of thousands in the market. So don't expect to be exactly that lucky buyer(nor the unlucky seller :P).

I suggest that if you are looking to buy in long term, try to buy in every few days/week depending on how much you are willing to put in to bitcoin a set amount in fiat terms. That way, if price rises you've got yourself a good deal early on and if price drops then you can lower your average entry point.

Long term wise, entry points don't really matter either way, it'll just boost your profits further. Bitcoin will be extremely bullish in the long run. People said that people who bought btc when it was $1300 back in 2013 were stupid, but they would have more than doubled their wealth in 4 years only if they held.

Speculating bitcoin's value has been impossible at any time. However, price is seems recovered back and value is settled around the 2550$. As we have adoption rate increasing and demand for bitcoin. Till that  we can see the bitcoin will be on top. None of the altcoin can compare with the bitcoin in future as well.