Bitcoin Forum

Other => Beginners & Help => Topic started by: l33 on June 22, 2011, 05:12:39 PM



Title: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 22, 2011, 05:12:39 PM
I am look for a kind of set date when minning will stop... anyone know or have idea?


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: adalov on June 22, 2011, 05:16:40 PM
Mining doesn't stop for a few decades. However, the benefits from it will decrease substantially over the next few years. This is also dependent on things like the amount of users mining, number of people using bitcoins, etc and how that may vary over time.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: talldude on June 22, 2011, 05:22:46 PM
Non-dedicated mining will become unprofitable this year, given the current rate of hash rate increase.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: compro01 on June 22, 2011, 05:33:37 PM
mining will happen forever.  it's a fundamental part of how bitcoin functions.  as the subsidy (the 50 BTC reward per block) falls in the long term, transaction fees will become an important part of rewarding miners.

as for how long it will be profitable near-term. my 6870, at current prices and electric rates, will remain profitable until the difficulty hits roughly 5 million.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: MertinTerm on June 22, 2011, 05:46:13 PM
I was thinking though, what about the future GPUs coming out? Surely with the way technology has progressed thus far, within a few years we will have GPUs pumping out 10x the current output of any current day top of line cards.

I whole-heartedly believe that unless you have any dedicated, full-fledged multi network mining rigs, you aren't going to make any decent profit in the future.

Sadly though, my knowledge over the subject is trivial compared to many other memebrs. I could just be spewing pure BS.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 22, 2011, 08:13:42 PM
I am thinking of getting 10 (maybe 20) box with 4 5750. Sounds like i can still get my money bck an more.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: minor_miner on June 22, 2011, 08:27:36 PM
I am thinking of getting 10 (maybe 20) box with 4 5750. Sounds like i can still get my money bck an more.

But you know that the average difficulty increase has been about 50% the last weeks?

So expect 50% less return every 9 days.

I planned to buy a mining rig up to a few hours ago, but am damn unsure now as I know the numbers.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: Tronlet on June 22, 2011, 08:33:25 PM
Mining will go on forever, however new blocks will stop being created somewhere around 2130, if my memory serves. (Actually 2140, just checked)

The transaction fees are currently virtually unnecessary, but when Bitcoin becomes more popular and/or the blocks grow in number, transactions will slow down. But, you can include a voluntary transaction fee that will make miners want to process your transaction due to its value, and that will speed up your transaction. Miners will receive transaction fees, though no new blocks will be created.

That is of course assuming the world as we know it is still around in 2140, for all we know both USD and BTC will have been abolished and our minds will be uploaded into a hive network. :P


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 22, 2011, 08:35:19 PM
Yeah, I have seen that. I think most people will drop out because of that. So us true miners will have to fight for it.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: minor_miner on June 22, 2011, 08:38:28 PM
Yeah, I have seen that. I think most people will drop out because of that. So us true miners will have to fight for it.

Yes, but they will have to prepare to fight with people who pay 0.05$ per kWh, which I'm clearly not paying in Europe.. not even close :(


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 22, 2011, 08:40:55 PM
I am looking into Colocation. Power is payed for. 


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: cothoms on June 22, 2011, 08:42:15 PM
l33, you may want to find some of the bitcoin calculators out there to determine your breakeven point.  you might be surprised, especially if you are building these systems from scratch.  


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 22, 2011, 08:49:44 PM
I have the servers just need videocards.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 22, 2011, 08:50:16 PM
Do you all know of any good calculators?


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: minor_miner on June 22, 2011, 08:52:00 PM
http://www.alloscomp.com/bitcoin/calculator.php

It's laggy as hell, though.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: Archatos on June 22, 2011, 09:00:24 PM
Mining will go on forever, however new blocks will stop being created somewhere around 2130, if my memory serves. (Actually 2140, just checked)
So that is when the 21,000,000th bitcoin is generated?

Though, from what I'm seeing, the speed of which blocks are generated will depend on the available hardware? So how would it be possible to calculate this, considering we have no idea what power hardware will have in the future. Even predicting the power of hardware a couple of years ahead is close to impossible.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: luizeba on June 22, 2011, 09:05:01 PM
I was thinking though, what about the future GPUs coming out? Surely with the way technology has progressed thus far, within a few years we will have GPUs pumping out 10x the current output of any current day top of line cards.

That's true.

In 1 year, the GPUs will be really stronger than today


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 23, 2011, 01:26:15 AM
Right...stronger GPUs but harder Bitcoins.  ???


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: tehcodez on June 23, 2011, 01:28:11 AM
GPUs...so 2010...


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: l33 on June 23, 2011, 01:30:43 AM
GPUs...so 2010...

I dont get it.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: SlipperySlope on June 23, 2011, 05:45:07 AM
Back in July 2010, I generated two blocks all by myself before rising difficulty forced me out of CPU mining - as there were no pools back then.

Now I hope to keep mining coins with my GPU rigs until the earnings are less than my daily 1.74 USD electric bill for the 850 watts I consume to yield 1200 MH/sec - September?


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: truthcracker on June 23, 2011, 06:12:33 AM
Its not mining, its plugging a computer into a wall.


Title: Re: How long will we be able to mine?
Post by: Tronlet on June 23, 2011, 08:37:47 AM
Mining will go on forever, however new blocks will stop being created somewhere around 2130, if my memory serves. (Actually 2140, just checked)
So that is when the 21,000,000th bitcoin is generated?

Though, from what I'm seeing, the speed of which blocks are generated will depend on the available hardware? So how would it be possible to calculate this, considering we have no idea what power hardware will have in the future. Even predicting the power of hardware a couple of years ahead is close to impossible.

Actually, the 20,999,999.99999999th bitcoin, it stops just below 21m.

To answer your difficulty question, about every 2 weeks the difficulty is raised or lowered depending on how fast people are finding bitcoins. The system dynamically adjusts itself to make sure it sticks to that block-every-10-minutes goal.