Bitcoin Forum

Greetings; how would one gauge the likelihood or probability that BTC will see a correction at a certain price? my concern is that if many people believe it could happen that would influence it happening.

we are already experience a correction after it touched 5000 USD yesterday. it's a mental barrier we have to break now, people like to sell on such round numbers. it will recover soon and then break through above 5000.

Calm down :). History is repeated. Yesterday $ 5000 for 1 BTC was very close. As for me, it's a matter of time.

There isn't really anything you can do to predict whether or when a correction will happen. Basically if the value goes up way beyond the actual worth of something then eventually a correction is inevitable at some point in the future. However, pinpointing this time is difficult.

It is really happening, I'm always expecting that whenever we are about to step in another ATH, it will be followed by a correction. But just hold on tight as these corrections will happen for a couple of days but it will no longer stay for a week. Think about what happened when we are about to reach $3k.

If we consider last 1 year, all ATHs was follewed by another ATH in bitcoin. Remember $1400, $1900, $2300, $2900, $3500, and $4500 peaks. When we got $4500, lots of people was saying this is the end. After that, we say $5000 easily.

Price changes are pretty huge now, can't say for sure what the "correct" price is. A lot of people got their sell orders around 5k so we are experiencing a drop in price, but larger investors are not selling, they are buying so it shouldn't be long until price goes beyond 5k

The correction is ongoing. I saw the Tone Vays market analysis and he nailed the top at around $4950, now he thinks he will not go lower than $4000, and that after this correction is over, we will go to an ATH, definitely breaking through $5000, so after that psychological barrier is beaten, I expect the bull market to continue for weeks through September.

There are no real signs of the bull market stopping, unless a ton of hardfork FUD starts to become spread all over the net.

There are hodlers, spenders, traders, institutionalized investors, and then there are speculators, somewhere between traders and hodlers. Strong speculators hodl when the price is going good and still hodl when there is a dip and utilize it. Weak hands/speculators sell when they have got 5% to 15% on their investment and sell, other weaks follow and then there is a correction and then these weak hands speculate when is the right time to buy bitcoin?

Bitcoin touched $5000 so a correction is obviously natural. If I go by recent stats, I am assuming bitcoin would again cross $4600 - $4700 in a couple of days, just an assumption.

It already happened. Huge drop from 5k but it will rise back up. Seems that some people sell at that price and bought at the lower price but regardless in the long term you will still profit since the price gradually rise.

Actually, the "larger investors" are following suit right now.  This is just the beginning of the drop.  I came in here yesterday to warn everyone that this was inevitable.  I'd hate to say it but I believe this is the beginning of the steepest decline yet.

But it will recover, and when it does I believe it will be the beginning of a steady period of growth that will also be the best the currency has seen...even better than when it went from triple digits to 3K.  And expect it reach the 5 digits by the end of 2018, and eventually even the low-mid 5 digits after that.

But before that happens expect things to get worse before they get better.  It's not a bad idea to move your money elsewhere in the meantime.  As much as I hate to say it I believe this is just the beginning of a steep decline. 

Price changes are becoming huge and huge now ,no matter how the price change ,pumps or dumps ,all
we need to do is holding. don't sell your bitcoin ,that is what they want, keep it in your cold wallet ,in case you do something wrong .

bitcoin prices are strongly influenced by market conditions. so the more demand then the most likely price increase will occur. and vice versa when demand a bit then bitcoin price will experience correction. this is the current law, that bitcoin is very easily influenced by circumstances.

OH SHIT!!! OMFG THE PRICE DROPPED 10% OFF AN ATH YOU ARE RIGHT WE ARE FUCKED!!!
Is that what you want? go get your shine box.

We cannot know what will happen next to bitcoin as i know the prediction of some people and there speculation are really happening btc are a bit close to 5k and that price which some people predict are real. Bitcoin price is depend on the circumtances of the market it is like supply and demand and equilibrium.

No, how did you get the idea that this is what I'm saying? I know that it's natural to see a correction after a milestone like this and that it's part of the economical cycle. I'm trying to make a profit out of it. I want to hear people's reasoning and analysis to better enhance my own. I'm not delusional...

What is the reasoning behind this steep decline that you are predicting. Is this because it has risen up so fast that it is a slight bubble that is only building to eventually break?

It was a successful attempt to try to break the $5000 barrier. But it failed to hold on to it and continue forward. But at least it proved something, that a $5000 figure can be reached easily. The next time Bitcoin will hit $5000 again, I am kind of certain that it will be a successful one and the limit will be a thing of the past after that.

We are seeing a correction trying to breach the $5000 and it was expected and my expectation is that once we find the good enough steam to cross the five thousand valuation mark then we could see a rally of over six hundred dollars on the go and that is what we are seeing in the past rallies and that is what is expected this time around too. :)

It is a natural human behavior and they call it as self-fulling prediction or prophecy...it is happening because a critical number of people believe that a certain thing will happen and because of that it did happen actually. With Bitcoin, this is nothing to be alarmed as it is just natural that at a certain point correction can set in. Soon Bitcoin can be back again towards $5,000 for sure and this time it can go beyond that psychological wall.

You should be able to analyze, read graphics and also hear information like the events of 1 August yesterday. Follow your feeling and follow what he wants. I hope you are lucky  :D

Hmm. I don't think it is something that would be influenced by just a simple survey here on the forum. Since there are so many people trading and not all people will be on this thread let alone this forum. There is also the problem of the whales, you can't really say what is on their minds, and they are a major factor to the equation.

Some people have asked me about where to get the Tone Vays market analysis, well you can watch his youtube channel:


https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCbiWJYRg8luWHnmNkJRZEnw

Here's the prediction for the top:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHxNu95088E

And here's the prediction in the World Crypto Network channel for the correction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoTaS9t3Po4

Nobody can predict the future, but it's clear that this guy is pretty good at this.

He isn't good at all with alts tho. He didn't predict the ETH rise, he didn't predict the BCash rise, and he didn't predict a lot of other alts that could have made you rich, even if they are shitcoins.

Every time you see round numbers, those number are going to become a barrier, the barrier is mostly psychological, since people prefer to use round numbers when making calculations because it is easier, so when bitcoin touches a number like 5000 many people create sell orders, suddenly there are many sell orders and the supply is bigger than the demand and that makes the price to go down.

Yes round numbers can be a big barrier. 4000 wasn't that hard to crack. But 5000 is the half of 10.000 and therefore much more of psychological significance!
I'm sure we will go there soon. Then it will be very interesting to watch if we can break it or need some more attempts. And if they all fail, how much will go down? Especially with the planned november B2X hardfok. We're going to see some pretty exciting weeks.

What I have noticed before is this : People set certain goals and when they reach that goal, they adjust their goals to something else. Some traders might set a goal to reach a $5000 bitcoin price. They will push fiat, until they reach that point and then they will sell and this is probably when you see a correction. < people taking profits at a specific price point >

Then they set new goals < $6000 per bitcoin > and the process are repeated.

Well, I honestly don't understand what is meant by the correction even thought I read all the posts in this thread. Correct price? It doesn't make sense to me, for there's no stable true price in cryptos. Correction as an improvement? I can't see any logic here as well, for there are no upcoming development projects, especially those which would be related to the price. I think we'll see $5k once, now is just a time of a temporary dump.

Jeff Garzik and everyone involved in the so called New York Agreement along with every exchange supporting segwit2X hardfork will be the ones to blame in case of a big price crash in the next couple of months.

Bitcoin Core is about to release a major new release, Bitcoin Core 0.15, which includes 50% increase of speed amongst a lot of other cool features. Meanwhile segwit2x's client is still stuck with old Bitcoin Core, same goes for Bitcoin Cash. They simply can't keep up with the best dev team in Bitcoin.

Remember to put [no2x] in your Twitter nickname to show support against segwit2x.

You're right on this, this is very similar to a loop or cycle. The things are repeating themselves. We saw correction after 5k $ and now we'll probably targeting above 6k $. After that, we'll see another correction, and then we'll target 7k $.

That is true, but each looping takes too much time to happen, when the correction comes we usually see the price increasing very slow, stable or decreasing and recovering everyday a bit only. The cycles are made of loopings and always go up on long term, but they don't happen so fast (at least until now they didn't happen so fast). I believe the price will stay around $4000 (or a bit less) for sometime.

I think we are holding at $4200. Of course it will just repeating itself but its takes time as compare to the previous loop. So it you believed in it, this price correction is expecting although it may have traveled hurriedly by the news of the crackdown on ICO. So we may see prices go up again to $5000-$7000 after this price correction then another correction occurs down the line then move up again to maybe $10000. But this time it takes longer as before. And we may come to conclusion that bitcoin hodler should be really for long term to maximized your profit.

It seems Bitcoin does not wait for it to reach $5000 to make us see a correction.  I feel the current downtrend of price is somehow a correction from the fast increase of its price this past days.  Though probably China announcement about ICO have something to do with it but I am quite positive that correction is happening right now. After this we can see another boost in price as  buy support piles up :).

Just the wishes can't influence the bitcoin price but this situation now doesn't worry me. It's the correction that probably has also something to do with situation in China but that will not last so long that O would have to sell my coins. It might take a while to get back to 5000$ but just be patient, the price will go back on the track.

More than 5% decline from around  $4,850 to around  $3,950 low. This really shows the sign of  serious correction at the moment. Although it Is a very good point for rational investors to buy more and hold pending when its value increase again.

Although the price has significantly drop in the last couple of days, it looks its own the way to recovery, just a few hours ago, I see the price ranging from $4100-$4200 but right now it has picked up to $43xx. The situation in China had made this price correction worsen, but knowing bitcoin, it has the capacity to return to its normal state and this maybe the beginning.


I hope new and rational irrational investors will go on buying spree and ordinary or casuals as well. Because once the price zoom again it will be very hard to buy once bitcoin has gain steam again. So its better to hold and buy back bitcoin at this low price.

The recent news about china gives an impact to the price of the bitcoin too, because there are some people are said the possibility for the bitcoin to replay the historically of bitcoin in 2013, There were some exchange site has been banned by the PBOC due to the money laundering.

The reason for that is that we need more and more money for bitcoin to go up in price and until adoption becomes bigger, then the rate at which the money enters bitcoin depends largely on the efforts of the bitcoin community on expanding the awareness of bitcoin, but I think this is going to change when bitcoin is able to once again perform the functions of a currency thanks to the fees going down due to segwit.

There is always a correction whenever Bitcoin price goes up rapidly.  The reason for that is that the demand cannot sustain the supply since price gone higher.  So price adjust according to what demand can support.  That is what we called correction and I think it is healthy to the market to have such correction once in a while.

It most likely to happen at 5000$ but I will crossed the road when I get there, what I mean is I'll wait after the correction has done. Before I agree that it happened. The perception of the users maybe also influencing the coming of that this November but not as big factor as you think. I think 10% of its probability that can affect but 90% is on the investors capacity to trade.

The correction tools place due to the China ban of ICO coins recently . Due to which it went low of 4k and and then started to bounce bank again . Now it's about 4600$ back and probably if again we heard some bad news then the drop may be significant this time it seems . Else if there is some positive news around then it should be reaching 5k mark soon.

Looking from the point of the voluminous Bitcoin history, we can see and say that all of these value corrections or retreats upon reaching a certain historical high is just a normal behavior of Bitcoin. Lately, Bitcoin almost reached (in some exchanges it did) the $5K level and then the projected correction happened (partly because everybody is expecting it making it a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy).

Now, the value is steadying at the $4,500 - $4,600 arena and since there are no real good news that can be the impetus for the market to positively react to we might expect no big changes for this week and the next. And since November is coming with the scheduled fork we might see more volatility as the date is nearing.

We are then hoping that by 2018, things can get smoother for Bitcoin and it can be the banner year for all of the cryptocurrency ecosystem.

Weak hand got shaken out when price hit 4000. Who ever remain holding coin have strong conviction.

Maybe sooner than you think we will see a correction at $5000 again, recently the correction took place because of the news stating China banned the ICO's. And the fact that there will be another hardfork coming by November so we will expect another correction by then. It's just a matter of time.

I think that is a natural behavior of all the investments, when something reaches an all time high it is impossible to maintain that price for a long time and after that happens the most natural thing is for the price to drop lower, it is not really something to worry, unless you bought at the peak, in which case you are going to face the difficult decision of selling for a loss or to hold for a long time.