Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Project Development => Topic started by: krasnolud on June 05, 2013, 08:55:08 PM



Title: Mining profitability charts
Post by: krasnolud on June 05, 2013, 08:55:08 PM
Dear Fellow Miners,

When calculating the profitability of mining with different miners - GPU, FPGA, ASIC - I decided to build a small online tool based on my Excel spreadsheet. A tool that could possibly come in handy for others - to help them decide if to go for an investment or not.

This is a beta version so it can include an error or two  - I would be grateful for pin-pointing them - and for all suggestions.
Please be easy on me and don't troll. ;)

http://minercharts.com (http://minercharts.com)

I have one more request.
There are some miner examples in the opening text on the page. I'd like to show more - it would be great if you could share your miner's data:
 - name (e.x. "7 x 7970")
 - efficiency (e.x. "3300 Mhash/s")
 - power consumption (np. "1370 W").

Thank you in advance!


Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: Sukrim on June 05, 2013, 08:57:28 PM
An easy "100 MH/s raw return per day at current prices + difficulty" with ~10-60 minute resolution would be nice.

Also please list the formulas you use when calculating your stuff, quite a few "mining calculators" are inaccurate.


Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: krasnolud on June 05, 2013, 09:05:16 PM
Also please list the formulas you use when calculating your stuff, quite a few "mining calculators" are inaccurate.
I will, but I have to get some sleep now (it's late here).
Back to you in a few hours. :)



Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: btharper on June 05, 2013, 10:56:53 PM
It may be helpful to allow difficulty to be set to something other than what it currently is (so people can guess at post-ASIC difficulty or such), same for BTC/USD.

It also might be interesting to allow power usage to be given in terms of J/GH (or MH, etc).

Looks pretty nice though


Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: btcfarseer.com on June 06, 2013, 04:54:38 AM
Hi guys,

Difficulty is an important factor when considering profits since now the difficulty is growing exponentially. Also if you want to know how others think about the future difficulty, you can check out this website - http://btcfarseer.com (http://btcfarseer.com) or maybe this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=223850.msg2386345#msg2386345 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=223850.msg2386345#msg2386345). It just released, but for your future reference.


Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: krasnolud on June 06, 2013, 09:43:35 AM
Also please list the formulas you use when calculating your stuff, quite a few "mining calculators" are inaccurate.

Here is my formula for the mining profitability chart:
DIFF - difficulty
EFF - efficiency (Mhash/s)
CON - energy consumption (W)
NRG - enrgy cost (USD/kWh)
RATE - BTC/USD rate

Monthly profit for a chosen day =((24/(DIFF*Power(2;32)/(EFF*Power(10;6))/60/60)*25)*RATE-(CON*24/1000*NRG))*30

(It was modified quite a few times, so it surely could be optimized.)

For the monthly earnings calulcations, for each month I simply add monthly profits from the entire month and divide them by 30.
For the cumulative earnings I substract the investment from the first month.



Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: Sukrim on June 06, 2013, 11:27:34 AM
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

Quote
The difficulty is set such that the previous 2016 blocks would have been found at the rate of one every 10 minutes, so we were calculating (D * 2**48 / 0xffff) hashes in 600 seconds. That means the hash rate of the network was

D * 2**48 / 0xffff / 600

over the previous 2016 blocks. Can be further simplified to

D * 2**32 / 600

without much loss of accuracy.

That's what I meant - your numbers are off. Slightly off, but still, they are wrong. Considering that ASICs do cost (and hash) different magnitudes than CPUs back when this Wiki was written, this can amount to more than just a few fractions of a cent over time.

Correct is: (2^48/65536) instead of 2^32

What might be helpful too is to help people come up with their real energy costs: I pay less than 10 EURcents per kWh for the energy itself, but that's only about a third of the actual price I pay (the other thirds are roughly: network fees like maintenance and so on as well as taxes for subsidizing green energy + the 20% flat tax). What might help is to let people enter the following data from their last electricity bill:
"My last electricity bill total kWh used"
"My last electricity bill total amount of currency paid"

From that you can calculate the real costs (including taxes, fees, fixed costs and whatnot) of electricity for a user, which probably should serve as an upper bound (though some companies seem to charge more per kWh if you use more to incentivize saving) but at least as a more realistic projection than some numbers you might find on a web site of an electricity provider.


Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: OnkelPaul on June 06, 2013, 12:48:36 PM
That's what I meant - your numbers are off. Slightly off, but still, they are wrong. Considering that ASICs do cost (and hash) different magnitudes than CPUs back when this Wiki was written, this can amount to more than just a few fractions of a cent over time.

Correct is: (2^48/65536) instead of 2^32

Actually, (2^48/65536) is exactly 2^32. You most likely meant (2^48/65535).

Since the relative difference (0.015%) is way smaller than the measurement and prediction errors, it really does not matter.
If the calculation shows that you might get $100 +/- 20%, calculating the $100 to 4 digits after the decimal point does not make a lot of sense.

Onkel Paul


Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: krasnolud on June 06, 2013, 03:18:03 PM
I agree it is not significant, but I have updated the algorithm anyway.


Title: Re: Mining profitability charts
Post by: krasnolud on December 09, 2013, 07:37:54 PM
Hi Folks,

Can I use exactly the same algorithm for Litecoin calculations?

(Assuming that efficiency is KH/s)