Bitcoin Forum

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Hey all,

Markets are pretty simple from the meta perspective, they’re all about expectations. So, now that we’ve seen the re-opening of Mt.Gox to little drama, what do you think is going to happen to the price between now and Friday, the 1st of July?

Vote and we’ll report the results on next week’s episode of BitTalk.

Current market data from Tradehill. (https://i.imgur.com/8jdJl.jpg)

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Atom’s take:

So, I was taking a look at the market data over at Tradehill, and I gotta say I’m liking what I’m seeing: what was a very thin market yesterday is now starting to stack up with maximum size orders (200BTC max value @ Tradehill per order) at nice tight intervals, which means that any start in movement on the price can be immediately met by someone offering large quantities at near or slightly above market price.  

Looking at the attached chart, it looks like we’re at the end of a brief period of consolidation before the next leg up, and what looked like a parabolic spike (as in bubble). It now looks like an initial overreach with the price that was flushed out by the panic last week, leaving more BTC in stronger hands.    

Really, the question is will it get easier to get your $$ into the markets, because right now the wait is at least a week for a new account — assuming it goes smoothly — which is ridiculously poor for a financial product as liquid at BTC.  

If it doesn’t get easier, then things could get volatile when all the buyers with $$ (and not BTC) do their major purchasing, and everyone is left holding.  If the new hands are just looking to make incremental profits and get out, that’ll be bad for the market but if they’re buying, selling, and rebuying that will actually assist with stability by providing *real* liquidity and arbitrage.

An unremorseful bump.

Price will end to the upside on relatively volatile trading

...only slightly to the upside.  i'd say maybe $18-19.

and i'm probably wrong...

We are going to post a new high. Hopefully  ::)

Looks like in the BitcoinMarket Liberty Reserve/BTC pairing, the buyers got antsy and jumped from $12 to $15 - That's a really thin market, but it goes to show that not all buyers are content to wait for lower costs.

Amusing, the exact opposite is happening in the more robust Tradehill USD market, those sellers got antsy and came down in price (probably on ongoing rumors of a coming BTC flood from ex-Mt.Gox users, although I suspect that event has been greatly exagerated in terms of effect.)   If nothing else, there seems to be a floor around 14 if for the several thousand limit orders sitting there waiting to be filled.

We're going to be recording episode 2 on Wednesday, not friday, so the poll will be closed at that time.

MtGox trading has been open for a while and no real movements besides the Liberty Reserve buyers getting antsy about missing the boat, and so upping their bids to meet the sellers.

Still waiting for that crash!