Bitcoin Forum

BitGo Software Engineer Jameson Lopp revealed that if the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price continues, Bitcoin will be valued at around $250,000 by 2020.

Lopp calculated the seven-year trend of Bitcoin price based on daily value change. With the exception of 2014, which was affected by the downfall of now-defunct Mt. Gox, Bitcoin has continuously recorded positive daily value change since 2010.

Bitcoin average DAILY value change:
2010: +0.82%
2011: +0.76%
2012: +0.26%
2013: +1.11%
2014: -0.25%
2015: +0.09%
2016: +0.22%
2017: +0.66%

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-will-hit-250000-by-2020-if-seven-year-trend-continues

https://cointelegraph.com/images/725_Ly9jb2ludGVsZWdyYXBoLmNvbS9zdG9yYWdlL3VwbG9hZHMvdmlldy9jN2U2MWRhYjUxNDgwZjVjMzQ2ZmQ2ZTJiMzYxNzFkZC5qcGc=.jpg

This sounds completely ridiculous!

But I know the math isn't off. It's interesting to see it phrased as "average daily value change". I like that, particularly for something as volatile as Bitcoin.

What's not clear in what you posted is what the net change is year over year, which is what actually dictates the angle of the trend that reaching $250,000 in the next 3 years would depend upon.

I've read into the article and the the Lopp is claiming:


This is the rate we need to maintain to reach $250,000. Wild, wild times!

Exponential growth forever is a fallacy.

Yeah, this is a good point. And the data being shared shows that as well. Trends are only good for past performance views. They're only as good for future prediction until they day they aren't, which can't be predicted.

At some point growth will slow.

The unknown question is whether that will happen soon (before 2020 for the purpose of this discussion) or after. Only time will tell.

Just look at 2014  and remember that could be 2018

Exponential growth forever is a fallacy. Is a big problem

 ;D ;D

And if we ever saw that much unchecked growth, we would be doomed when the guys that brought in at 100 said "fuck it" and decided to liquidate.

I support the math, but not as it is presented. like you said,trying to assign any static rate of "value change"  is retarded. im assuming that he didnt price in any real margin of error (as we obviously would experience at least one major prolonged retraction per year). The government would go ape shit; they cant have that much untaxed value creation. shit would go off the chain with that much transfer of wealth. the status quo would be upended ;)

from a meta, however, this just seems zany. its like we have lost our good sense regarding price; i refuse to purchase these fuckers at this price level with fiat. ill earn them all day. but ill be damned if I pay a premium on what I know is just hype.

I think this is a bit impossible for the price as you say, we can see from your data that the price in 2014 is down so maybe next year or before 2020 the price may go down, in the calculation it may happen but we can not guess The future what price which will appear on bitcoin

i actually never in my life thought that btc will reach $500  :P
and look at it now, it seems possible  & only time can tell

Ok , let's assume this growth will continue and we will reach 250 000$ by 2020.
Although it does sound kind of rpietlilish it is of course not impossible to actually become true.

But if this model is correct why do we assume it's going to stop exactly in 2020?
So, if we expect a x50 growth in the next three years why not another x50 in the next 3 also?
And of course we might reach 625000000 by 2026.
Fell free to calculate how much a BTC would be worth in 2050.

Besides I really don't like how Gox was blamed for the downtrend but the author easily forgets that the WillyBot was also guilty for the rush to over 1k.

LE:
I really have to save this image as it seems I need it everyday:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png

nothing grows steadily and nothing keep on becoming less steadily. so despite math is right, logic is wrong. it is like oceans, think like tides, tidal flow.

In my opinion, Bitcoin will not be so expensive.Because of the price increases all the time, but not right.Bitcoin prices will be reduced at a time.But now I'm just waiting for the time.

Bitcoin $250000 by 2020 hhh imposibl!  :o :o

I mean it'll either end up plateauing or crashing. Exponential growth can usually indicate some kind of price bubble.

Also if you really think it will continue to grow in an exponential growth, good luck trying to sell the coin at that price.

I would like to think that bitcoin can possibly reach $250,000 but it will only happen if full adaptation of bitcoin will be implemented to majority of countries because that would only mean that the demand will surely increase which cannot sustain by the limited supply of bitcoin. But if the demand will not grow that much I don't bitcoin can soar this price and might remain in this price gap.

More likely scenario would be there will be more "specialized coin" geared toward different industries.

Of course it won't keep rising exponentially forever. But what I don't get, is how many of you deem $250.000 to be impossible. That would only equal a market cap of roughly $4.6 trillion; gold sits at $8.2 trillion, all stock markets $66.8 trillion.

If someone told you it was going to be worth $6000 when it was at $0.05, wouldn't that have sounded equally "impossible"? $250.000 by 2020 is very possible once mass adoption happens and the big guys (wall street, major banks, etc) enter the market.

250k USD per BTC is very reasonable.

I hope that at least some of the whales have good hearts and put this money to good use, founding new enterprises that will shake the current establishment.

Bitcoin valuation is the corrosion of the modern "democratic" State, the model which sprang from the French Revolution, and which is heavily dependent on debt. The more this outdated model corrodes, the more bitcoin will go up.

If you want you can buy bitcoins now and stock it but for me its impossible ;D

I agree with most replies. That price seems virtually impossible, but I think the main problem here is that it only takes maths into account and not what could happen in the real world. Bans, regulation, mass adoption, forks, alts gaining dominance... there are so many events that can affect price that to take only maths into account is like building castles in the air.

Bitcoin is sound money, and we've got some zeros until fiat is replaced. After that the effects will be much more drastic than industrial revolution, and economy, thus bitcoin value, will still continue growing at a fast pace.

Those who believe in a roof don't see the economic truth of sound money.

Fiat is a lie, it can't last forever.

It would be really wonderful that something like this happens because there would be a lot of people who will become rich if they have 1 BTC or even less depending in which part of world they live.Considering nature of BTC I would never say that even this prediction is impossible by 2020,but I would be more moderate in such prediction.Can price of BTC go up around 80k $ per year to achieve such a prognosis?It is very difficult in the opinion of many users surely.If demand stay high and we see positive movements in next years,maybe after seven years and two more halving we can expect something close to this price.

Obviously not possible, what does OP think about 2020 bitcoin prices reach $ 250,000? Where does this data come from? 2014 we have seen a very significant decline, will not forever continue to grow. This is one of the definite laws. If you experience a soaring surge there will be a very big decline as well, if prices continue to increase, chances are people will completely switch to earn bitcoin. Obviously this will cause a very bad effect in the world of cryptocurrency, well you are right this is like building a castle in the air.

Some of my thoughts:
1. While I am aware that bitcoin price won't be rising indefinitely, I am also sure that current value is not the final.
2. We will see higher price in the future - the only minor problem is the right assessment of price trends.
3. Using purely mathematical formulas to extrapolate the ultimate future bitcoin price is kinda too random for me.
4. Some of really well-known investors seem to share this idea of crazy high bitcoin price - i.e John McAfee.

I have also try to analyze bitcoin price movement in this way and using this year as my area of focus, I find out that bitcoin double in price every quarter through out this year and if this continue then I expect bitcoin to be more than  $250,000 by 2020. We have has significant price movement this year alone and I believe 2018 will show us more significant improvement and we would keep moving up until price get to $500,000.

The big guys know how to make only Fiat. Due to the fact that the current financial system is completely controlled by the rich. Governments always act in their best interests. agree easier to play cards if you know of an opponent. When they make predictions about cryptocurrency I don't trust them. Bitcoin lives his life and no one can predict his behavior in the future.

It sound pretty good. I don`t believe in such an exotic predictions. I do believe that the value of bitcoin is going to raise in the years to come but 250 000$... I can`t remember that we had , in our history as society, similar situation that gave people opportunity to make a fortune practically out of nothing. You just need to buy a bitcoin and wait for two years to pass and `voila`, here comes the cash...

The math make seems like it makes sense, but when applied to the real world where there are limitations such as political pressure, adoption, altcoins competing with bitcoin and fiat currencies competing with bitcoin then it is very easy to see that the math does not make sense, I would say that even reaching 10% of that is going to be almost impossible in that time frame.

This is probably not going to happen. The growth that we have seen have all come from an inflood of new investors - the percentage increase of which probably will not stay up to current levels or as high a level as currently.

I'd say that 2020, we may see $15-20k per bitcoin but $250000 is quite ridiculous.

BTC will take  abreak before jumping back up again.

We have much more user than that in 2013 and remember the network effect.

It surely sounds pretty good but realistic is what I am not sure of. Sure, no one can really give what happens next and we can just keep being optimistic. However, at the pace that bitcoin is going, anything can be possible by 2020. It is just a very long year to predict and surely a very high amount to expect, but which ever way, we just have to keep our fingers crossed.

Almost 80% of all bitcoins have been mined. 20% left for distribution until year 2140.
Adoption has barely started. We are still pretty early, if some want to believe that or not.
Therefore exponential growth in terms of price will keep going for quite some time, with corrections within that.
I don't know if $250k is possible until 2020 but I think it's indeed just a question of time until it happens.
Of course as long as no other Mt.Gox like drama happens.
Furthermore you can be sure there will be forces trying to slow down the growth as much as possible and distraction and manipulation to get your coins will continue to happen!!

3x every year (or 10x every two years) increase is roughly a long-term multi-year trend, so far.

5900*3*3*3= 160k

But to avoid disappointment, I wouldn't hope for more than 2x every year.

5900*2*2*2= 47k

That's would be enough for me to retire in 2020 (or maybe 2021).
It could go flat at 50k, I don't mind.

So...Set aside 2014, the lowest growth year would easily outpace most nasdaq longs (even a 0.09% daily growth is 33% yearly...during a bearish period!)
I think most investors would be very happy to long with a 0.22% daily growth

It may be worth mentioning that from that 20% which remained to be mined today only 1% or little more will remain around year 2032 and with 4 halving
until that time things will become very interesting.I agree that BTC actually in its early stages,as a child of 7-8 years old who is still learning and developing,much remains ahead of him to become strong and successful.Just like every child needs direction and attention,BTC also need support from developers and community.This 250k $ goal is likely to be achieved in next 7-15 years.

For Bitcoin to reach that price it would need a greater mass adoption where all millionaires are left behind with no coins. With such liquidity those prices are attainable.

For those trends to continue for another 5 years would mean a lot for bitcoin, it is safe to assume it would require mass adoption and acceptance almost globally, not to say it can't happen, just that it is unlikely to happen.

If we continue this phase, then its likely to get to this price in the next 3 years. But can it be done? There are lot of factors that we need like mass adoption, no negative news, people demanding more and others. But can all this factors works on our way? There will come a time that growth will suddenly hit a blank wall. So as much as I'm very bullish about the market, but the prediction can't be reached by 2020. Its not always parabolic and there will be a lot of challenges and setbacks that will pull the price at certain point in time.

Probably this would possibly happen if and if bitcoin would continue to grow to increase. But I couldnt see it will happen after 2 years. And ofcourse we could assume if there will be massive huge adoption so more likely we could see bitcoin price increase than the current.

You're right. Thanks to be even more specific in terms of the distribution phase.
Let's see how it plays out after next halving 2020. And I'm sure if Bitcoin keeps progressing as it does now and has done the last years, even the most talented devs will be highly interested working on something Bitcoin related.
In terms of price 6-12 months after next halving and then past 2024 could be become very interesting!
As Simon Dixon said recently in one of his last interviews: "Some call that a bubble, I call that growth! Growth on an exponential scale!"

I don’t expect this growth to continue at the same rate. There will be corrections and maybe some big ones. There could be a leveling off period as well. We have to take into account bad news such as government regulations or hacked exchanges that will affect the price. Also the Bitcoin transaction fees could go higher which could cause the value to drop. I expect the price to increase, but not at an exponential rate.

LOL. There is no way bitcoin can reach $250000 by 2020 due to many reasons. First of all, bitcoin is not a type of money and it can not supply all the people on this planet. Seconds, the fee is always an important issue. If bitcoin is $250000, the fee will be extremely high and no one will use bitcoin. IN the future, bitcoin can increase very high, but it can not cross $100000

You don't need all the people on this planet to use bitcoin to reach 6 figures pretty soon, you just need the rich people of the world to diversify their portfolios and add a small % of it on bitcoin, and ledger-x is a start for this exponential growth to take place without average joes getting into bitcoin.

I'm glad for this optimistic prediction made by Jameson Lopp (BitGo Software Engineer) and if we take a closer look at bitcoin price movement per year, the chance for bitcoin to reach $250,000 in the year 2020 is 85% . Besides, when it Jun 2020 another bitcoin halving will occur which could lead to double up in price of bitcoin.

That break is surely something we should expect, however, we have not really had much investors yet as far as I am concerned, and there is the possibility of much more awareness being created in upcoming years than we have had this year. So, if we put all that together, I might have to disagree with the $15000 - $20000 by 2020 as being too small to what could be realistic eventually.

We cannot know what is coming and can only assume anyway, and predict based on what is on ground presently as no one knows the future.

That is obviously a crazy value in thirteen years time obviously and like you said, we cannot just use general mathematics to just make assumptions since there are so many factors in between that can affect the value of the digital currency even before that seven years (either negative or positive). We still have many huge highs to come obviously, but there are just some speculations that are obviously just ridiculous like this one.

Nobody really can say what will be the price even after 1 year. Such assumptions cannot be worthwhile because bitcoin is too sensitive to external factors and is not predictable. What will happen to bitcoin price if the US and China will combine their efforts in the fight against cryptocurrency. Price can not always grow it's just that I can tell.

That just ridiculous! $250000 by 2020 is just way too much. I'm speculating the price by would be $15000-20000 if the trend keeps going. An exponential increase is just not that possible considering various reason such as fork, FUD and dump.

It's very promising that bitcoin would reach $250000 by the end of 2020 and if that's possible then every bitcoin holder would buy at least one Lamborghini with their coins and it's also one of my dreams which I want to make real, so I can hold on to my coins very tight at least till 2020.

Theres so much exaggeration with this post,i dont think it will ever reach that price, $250000 by 2020 is kinda hype for me.
There will also be a lot of reason that the price of bitcoin might go down,who know lets see it the future.

well, it's 3 more years until 2020. I think the price is so high. I felt that the bitcoin price was not far from the $ 10,000 price at the time. well, but I always hope something good happens, because I will also keep bitcoin for a long time.

It is possible, especially if fiat currencies collapse.

The fiat debt bubble simply cannot continue forever and when it collapses people will seek a safe haven to put their money in - in my opinion, this is going to be bitcoin since it is the most convenient and accessible asset that is also a store of value.

However, it probably won't happen. If given another 2 decades though, btc can achieve this easily.

Are you delirious 250K it I think is impossible,too many people are holding on BTC.you see 2014 could happen in the year 2019 this,I think is impossible because before rising 10K course people think to sell.But my opinion could be wrong,I hope best for BTC hopefully achieved 250K ;D ;).

To all the people saying this is impossible, now imagine it’s January 13 the price of bitcoin is around $15 and price growth is anaemic and someone then says to you ,” within the next 5 years bitcoin will have hit $6000.” They’re nuts right ?

Is it harder to get from $5.7k to $250k, yes it is (personally I think it’s a factor of 10 to high - however it’s not far off the implied BETI if you look at the bitcoin exponential price thread) and it will require adoption to continue to increase at the same rate  - but that’s the network effect, if more people use bitcoin, then even more people will use bitcoin, it comes down to where you think the S Curve starts to level off. At $250,000 a bitcoin you can can still buy 4 satoshi for one cent- and that’s a bargain ;)

This is something that I agree, the fiat system as it is working right now has not lasted 50 years and it is already showing signs of its imminent failure, we need to return to sound money, gold will be the most popular choice but bitcoin is going to also be the choice of many that do not trust the governments of the world are going to keep their fiat pegged to gold for a long time.

$50.000 is impossible instead of $250.000.. This topic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2322183.0 maybe can happen.. 250k dollar per 1BTC - OK, so expensive bitcoin.. and i can use 1 satoshies to have my bread and 100 satoshies to have bicycle... BTC will the most expensive good for monetary markets as BTC is first successfull cryptocurrency =))... LOL.. I think we will abandon use BTC at this time :)

Reminds me of how tough 2014 was to swallow. Stuck with it. Profits...

What are you talking about? Real exponential growth is yet to come.

What happend from 2014 can actually repeat in 2018 nor 2020. And the fees would be soo high for Bitcoin to reach that price point it would cost us 400 usd just to send 50 usd to another person.  My biggest prediction is bitcoin would be worth 10,000$ at 2020.

This is even realistic than John McAfee says about bitcoin 3 years from now. He said that it will be reaching $500,000 I want that to happen but I'm very skeptic to it and I doubt that it will happen. $250,000 is a better hope for the price of bitcoin on 2020. That's very sweet if that happens, I would go for any of them, whether the price reaches $50,000 or just $10,000 for the next years. This is making me crazy computing on the possible profit that we can get.

Yes you are some what correct.
but I donot think bitcoins worth would be that much.ever cause you have also consider the total volume in circulation.
and multiply that with the number you think bitcoins value would be.
We in world doesnot have that much of wealth to put in to any currency.
so its not possible.