Bitcoin Forum

Here I will post my long, short, and short short-term predictions. This is not trading/investment advice!

I'm likely to make mistakes with my forecasts! As you'll see below! But I hope to learn from those mistakes!

Off-Topic/Addressed/Unimportant posts are subject to being deleted to reduce clutter!

My live charts that I use for TA:
https://www.tradingview.com/e/?clone=dqFoObff

The live charts I use for backup, simplicity, and to see active bid and ask walls:
http://bitcoinwisdom.com/

The live charts that I use to hear noises when there's price action, to observe the walls, and to check recent orders:
http://bitcoinity.org/markets/mtgox/USD

Where I check for news:
Google News (https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&q=bitcoin&oq=bitcoin&gs_l=news-cc.3...0.0.0.788.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0...0.0...1ac.#q=bitcoin&hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&source=lnt&tbs=sbd:1&sa=X&ei=y7O3UYqxBsPM0QWZ6YHYDw&ved=0CCQQpwUoAQ&bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&bvm=bv.47810305,d.d2k&fp=56a09b07516f229a&biw=1559&bih=851) | http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/

Sentiment:
http://www.bitcoinscope.com/

Useful information:
http://blockchained.com/

The school I suggest for learning how to trade:
http://www.babypips.com/school/the-big-three.html

Misc:
http://candlestickgenius.com/top-10-candlestick-patterns/
http://whales.clustersense.com/

The exchange I suggest for low fees, leverage and shorting: Bitfinex
The exchange I suggest for liquidity and large fast price movement: Mt. GoX

So what is your prediction by now ?

For the short short-term, this appears to have been a bear trap from around 109 to 106.72, the buy and bid prices were a fair distance from each other before it recovered some, which is a bullish indicator if any. What likely happened was the uncertain traders bought in, as they saw the price gradually rising, but panicked as soon as they saw that the price could go down, which caused a small cascading effect, until the uncertain traders were for the most part all sold. What was left were the more certain traders, who have seen previous price jumps from such gradual falls. This is the pattern that the Cup and Handle pattern often produces shortly after, as we have seen. So far the rises have been faster than the gradual falls, which is bullish sign as well, so long as the market remains unstable with such low volume this behavior will likely continue as with the bear traps.

What I see happening now, is a small consolidation and then a break of the previous high of 110.63, before meeting another resistance at around 112, and then perhaps correcting and consolidating some. Yet it could break past this 112 resistance if the rally is strong enough, in which case the trend switch to the north will be confirmed.

I predict that the long term bear trend is dead, and the bull trend is just starting. Perhaps it will reach higher than 180 relatively quickly, but let's not get our hopes up just yet.

The consolidation has carried on longer than I expected, with a recent whale dump of 700 coins. So far the price has recovered, as it does with the bounce back pattern. These kind of large sell offs are good for getting rid of the panic sellers, therefore making the market more bullish. The current situation:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XYtfg3eX/

The less sellers there are to panic sell, the more bullish it likely is. The panic sellers are getting burned from selling low, and the buyers rewarded. These falls have to happen frequently, or too many soon to be panic sellers accumulate, who have the potential to set off a landslide.

These falls also have to happen relatively unpredictably or else many people will plan for them to the extent that they don't happen.

If nearly no one is selling below the top of the candle, or below the bottom of the previous candle, fewer bids will get filled, creating demand.

For a move north, there might need to be a gradual fall in order to build up momentum for a large bounce back.

The burned sellers likely learn to not sell at the lows, and the buyers mostly sell at the top of the candles, or hold without selling.

My first prediction that it would reach a resistance of around 112 has proven correct, with a high of 112.25. I now predict that the price won't stay below 112.25 for very long before breaking above it, but watch out for bear traps!

This arching movement holds a lot of bullish pressure.

There is some resistance that will likely be broken through at about 115.50, some more resistance at around 120, and then some at 124, and finally 130 - 133.

The 8 week bear has ended, will likely be followed by a 13 week bull

"For every panic sell there is a slow-accumulate, placid, unflappable buy."

Active whales have pretty much all dumped already, there's one possible whale dump left who bought at 95-110. Either the whales stay in fiat and hope the remaining large whale left will help crash the price to double digits again, or they give up their bearish hopes and join the bull movement until it's time to dump again at 120-130 or so.

Current situation:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/juTr6PaA/

The indicators are indicating nearly oversold at this moment, so we're due for another rise, but breaking the resistance (the red one primarily) might prove more difficult than I initially thought. If support breaks, we may very well correct somewhere around 100.

It appears that support was not needed to keep the price up, but a gradual fall is not unfathomably out of the question, yet I think it has a lot of potential to break the resistance now, so much so that that I think it's almost inevitable, therefore my prediction that it will break upward stands. The buy and bid wall are building like crazy. Currently we're bouncing above and below a pivot point.
 
Current situation:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Qmvejekl/

Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7ePLqKDu/

Breakout is nigh!

-edit-

The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Regulator: Virtual Currencies Have 'Nothing to Fear'
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323734304578543483082307450.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

It broke down! And fast, too!

An interesting pattern to look out for in the future:
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_black_crows.asp

It's hard to say now if this is the bottom.

Yes, there were some thing I should have fully accounted for, such as the change from faster rises to slower rises, and the Three Black Crows pattern near the collapse. So I should be more cautious in the future, and be much less overly confident, or at the very least with my predictions. The time frames are tricky, but I'll try to be more specific.

It could very well, or perhaps not. The market likes to break past significant numbers, but sometimes if these numbers manage not to get broken, they form strong supports or resistances. I don't see us in a bear trend, so I don't see breaking as very likely.

We might see a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

I am trying to do less of that, but listen to this, the chart would actually look better if it went upward! I know this is a superficial reason, but really, if it corrected upward rather than continue down, the chart would look a lot better! Wouldn't you agree?

Seriously though, I see the reverse Head and Shoulder's pattern as a real possibility right now, not as a prediction or a hope but as a possibility.

The falls are starting to lose their momentum. At the point where you see gradual arching falls, that are slower than rises, watch out! And in reverse, if you see faster falls than rises, you should also take that as a warning, as I didn't.

-update-

Looks like second shoulder formed, but has yet to break neckline.

-update-

We have little over 7 hours (until 17:00) to get the price to get above 104, for the candle on the 1d chart to become a bullish hammer.

How many shoulders do you think this beast is going to have ? lol

I'm not trolling you, I just couldn't resist ... this image of quasimodo jumped into my head !

Thanks for all the info!!

Obviously missed out on the point that the person driving the price down could be buying up the bitcoins on the rebounds making it seem like there is plenty of buying pressure, when in fact there isn't much buying pressure in the $100 range.  This is my opinion why this is happening, will continue to happen, and why the price will continue lower for a good while.

I noticed the following pattern in the 110 area:

1. Let's say 600BTC is dumped, price goes down 2USD
2. This is followed by 200BTC buy which brings price back 2USD up
3. Rinse & Repeat

What you often see is a bid-wall that is either removed to make the price slide further down, or are eaten into by pannick sells. As the market settles down, coins are sold back in small increments. Never trust a bid-wall.  ;)

Breaking downward from this bearish pennant to 95 is a significant possibility, after that the ghost bear might finally have faded.

If we break past 95-94, then the next Fibonacci support is at 77, but we might find a bottom sooner than that. If we break past 88, then the bear trend is still alive, otherwise it has been dead.

Three black crows have landed in the fifteen scale, their croaks can be heard throughout the the hills. Will the earth hold?

The crows do not think so.

Finally a quality prediction.

Your riddles do not tell us what the market bottom will be, old sport. I am shorting until it hits 85 regardless as we are about to see self-fulfilling prophecy.

Somebody does, it seems ;)

The bearish pennant turned into a descending triangle before breaking upward!

"If you go to:
http://www.prognosis.nl/support/faq/principle/principle2.html
and search for: "irregular flat" you can learn the rules regarding this type of wave. Interestingly, the author makes point that the fact that the market makes a new high suggests that the market really is anxious to get on with the next impulse wave up. "

https://www.tradingview.com/v/cfzbDBJ2/

My prediction that the bear trend has ended a while ago holds.

-update-

if it breaks 98.25, then it's not necessarily go upward very far, otherwise it's likely going up pretty far.

I predict up from here, so long as it doesn't cross 98.25.

My fiat is ready. I'm just waiting for the rebound to 120 before down to 70 :P

Why 98.25? I don't understand the importance of a very specific number, will 98.24 really turn everything around? Sounds like voodoo to me. :P

That's just an important support, if it's broken, then there is not much left to indicate that we're in a bull trend.

Everyone here wants bitcoin (and cheap).  TA does not matter. Big players will draw(pumping or dumping) you any chart you want if they will get more bitcoins. Think about Fundamentals.

Fundamentals are important, so is sentiment. Yet technical analysis is important as well..

Anything drawn or painted on a chart that looks natural, will be treated as natural from a TA and sentiment perspective. Yet it's difficult to try to paint something on a graph without getting indifference or the opposite of what you want.

I think 100 acts as a powerful pivot point, it'll eat up everything below and above it until it's ready to rise. Only a flash crash or bad news can break the 100 pivot gravity.

Inb4 a newsless slow slide down.  ;)

Inb4 rebound to $110

And thus a perfect illustration of the "gravity" Abandon speaks of.

Likely

Seems like we have to wade through treacle to get anywhere ...

Gox is oversold. All the markets in China are higher than Gox -- which makes for a change as they usually settle closer when given enough time.

I can see that plenty of bids are entering order books as people want to buy back, but they are a fair bit off the current price. As confidence returns on Mon/Tues, they will be moved up to market price and back up we will go.

Price won't be able to rise above $110 or so though -- it will take quite some time for confidence to fully return; perhaps a minimum of two weeks. Things will get going though. It's a great buying opportunity (as usual ;-) )

That confidence just takes time, not necessarily lower prices as some would believe.

Yes, but we got time ;)


Very true.

Using the exchange rate of USD/YUAN, what is the comparable price on Chinese markets? Additionally, your English is excellent  :)

$104 - $105 ATM ：-）

Thanks mate. Time to empty my accounts of fiat I think!

:-) You can see all the China markets and the USD prices here: http://btckan.com/price (USD is the second column from the left).

Sorry for the OT posts :-)

It's all in Han  :o . Thank god for Babelfish...  :D

I predict up from here, there will be some small corrections, but mostly up, really far up. The sky is the limit. For now.

I'm feeling it too. Minimum high of 120, maximum of 135.

A lot of good news recently but the market has been bottoming out from sell pressure of whales. Confidence will come back.

If it's going to 135$ then it's going to 150$.
For now we have to work out 112$ to 115$, which should be a though range.
Failing to break within a few days we'd go back to 105$ and lower..

It looks like we're in a Cup and Handle formation, we're at the handle part at the moment. If this is a Cup and Handle formation, we can expect a rally upward anytime within an hour or so. Perhaps in a few minutes.

I hope so. My hand is strong but i'm eager to short if I end up with more bitcoins.

Your thesis is almost out of time, you are grasping the last straw.

With the recent breakout, and Mt. Gox halting withdrawals, it looks like we can see 120 or above by today or tomorrow.

Crossed the EMA's:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zwv8ksEV/

http://www.thegenesisblock.com/want-to-know-where-btc-prices-are-going-watch-usd/

Bitcoin overlayed with the USD Index:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/GnffJyfn/
https://www.tradingview.com/e/dqFoObff/#

Perhaps when posting in this thread you should put the Mt Gox Weighted Average as a reference.  $111.65

I Added the VWAP to it, if that's what that is.

How interesting... so we are very undervalued with the MTGox PR hiccup and 'real' value is somewhere around 125+?

Rpetiela, Rpetiela... Rpetiela. What is the price on 12/31/13?