Bitcoin Forum

I've been starting to notice that when BTC goes up, BTC stocks go up, when BTC goes down, stocks don't necessarily.

I did notice that during the volatility on sunday that AM shares had a dip on btct. This could have been be people freeing up BTC to exploit the drop. This goes against half of what you are saying.

A change in the value of BTC effects almost everything in the bitcoin world. Still, I don't think there would be a massive correlation.

how could you exploit the drop with freed BTC?

Use as collateral for going long on Bitfinex for example... still sounds a bit weird to free up coins during a drop though.

What would you do on Bitfinex? Aren't you already long by holding a security valued in BTC ?

I think you are assuming ASICMiner has a FIAT value. i can see your argument with other securities that would experience a price change but few do. ASICMiner pretty much stays the same with price changes (look at the bubble/pop). However securities with FIAT business should move with the market and yes you could exploit that :)

Well, one could argue that during a btc flash crash, it's a panic selloff, which means people are psychologically spooked, and looking to move their holdings into fiat at any cost. It seems logical that people might be transferring btc stocks into btc (by selling cheaply) for transfer to exchanges to convert to fiat.

The reality is by the time everything is said and done, it will likely be too late, and you will likely be converting to fiat at the low, so it's generally smarter to sit tight, and/or buy the shares of those panicking.

-helixone

Yes, possible correlation noticed. No time to get concrete statistics on it. I have traded based upon the idea. Either I'm lucky (I am, but that's a whole other story.), or it works somewhat.

So the fact that I'm lucky means that there probably really isn't a correlation. Too Bad!  :D

1. Sell shares of Asicminer
2. sell bitcoins for USD
3. Watch BTC price plummet (hopefully)
4. buy more bitcoins for USD
5. buy more shares of AsicMiner

If everything goes as planned, if you can get your btc to the market before the crash reverses, then you could end up with more shares of AsicMiner than you started with, all in time to get the weekly dividend.

This, and it can even go simpler:
-Sell AM for BTC
-Wait for low AM
-Get more shares

In hindsight, it was a pretty quick fluke. Some overreacting or speculating?


I think these comments really nail down the point, except its psychological so it won't give you a strong (determining) correlation. Deprived had a really good post applicable here (can't remember what thread, but I think it was a somewhat recent post). He pointed out the problem with securities having or encouraging a fiat value: they use bitcoin as a medium, and when one rises, the other falls, and security gets tossed between the two, not really benefiting (I'm going off memory here). AM (and some others) avoids some of this problem by not talking about their worth, value etc. in fiat terms, and also in their performance of course.

So it seems to me, when you have people using multiple mediums, ratios some directly proportional and some indirect (inverse?), its pretty difficult to make a rational or mathematical judgement (and hence don't get caught up in finding a strong correlation, my advice). Perhaps some did think a crash was coming, and wanted to go from AM to BTC to fiat, maybe others were seeing only in BTC<->stock. 

On the other hand, wasn't it just like some weeks ago BTC had a strong dip and everyone crying 'CRASH', and stocks seemed little effected by the lower price, the exchange problems, and so on?

Actually if you look at the notable dips in the PT prices of AM, they largely correlate with large and rapid price drops in btc. The bubble/crash, showed a runup in AM prices right before a corresponding correction as well.  Look at AM prices between April 16th and 18th. Longterm though, slow moves in btc price don't seem to affect security pricing, and they seem to trade based on other reasons. (each security seems to differ.)

I will note one seeming exception to the rule, in that SDICE in particular has seemed to have been a reverse play here, and goes up when btc goes down and vice versa (for reasons documented elsewhere.)

-helixone

Good posts - agreed

This has dropped from $50,000, to $40,000 to now $30,000. It seems as time goes on, and things stil don't ship, a place in line for BFL devices drops in value. (As if it ever really had value.)

-helixone

makes sense

This. It's exactly what happened during the first crash. However, people caught on and there was less panic each subsequent drop, until the 4th there was zero drop and AM just climbed to 2.9