Bitcoin Forum

Why sell after three weeks?

Because he realized that mining he will never recoup what he paid for the blade, and wants to at least reach break even?

Pretty obvious, isn't it?

It's also called the "greater fool theory" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory)

The reason why I am selling it is because I made a big investment (I bought the blade in BTC but paid them in € @100€/btc) and now I need some liquidity because of personal reasons, liquidity that I dont have cos I spent 2 salaries in this blade. Obviously the blade is not providing that liquidity since the mining is somewhat slow (0.3-0.4 btc/day right now).



Please stop being delusional. Like all the blade owners, I'm sure it will pay itself, but not as soon as I expected initially (4 months). Within 8-10 months you should get into ROI for sure. Thing is I don't control that parameters, nor I have that time cos I need to fix the car, pay my bills, etc. I need liquidity in my life NOW and that's all. If I manage to sell it, that btc's are returning into € ASAP.

I am going to assume you are a complete newbie to mining and the blade was your first miner ever, so you are in good faith but simply do not understand what the change from GPUs to ASIC means in term of difficulty increase.

So: the bolded part of your reply is a delusion. That won't happen, and if you are so sure that you will get ROI in 8-10 months, I propose you an escrowed bet. I bet 10BTC that a 13GH/s blade won't be able to mine 50BTC in 10 months. Are you in?

The difficulty is currently increasing by aprox. 30% each 10 days. If the network would continue to grow at that pace, difficulty would go x9,000 in 10 months. Obviously that is unstainable and won't happen, the exponential growth will stop at some point and we will have a linear growth instead but still, even with a 13% increase each 12 days those blade won't ROI at all at those price.

I'm sorry, but it was very clear that those blades were NEVER going to break even, let's leave alone ROI (ROI means return of investment = to get profits - break even means recouping your investment).

Play with the calculator: http://bitcoinx.com/profit

The most important variable is "yearly profitability decline", which establishes how much will the difficulty grow in the next 12 months. If you insert 0.01, it means that difficulty will go x100 in 12 months. If you insert 0.1, it means difficulty will go x10 in the next year, etc.

Anyone inserting something higher than 0.02 in that variable is simply a clueless noob or a scammer. ASICs are a revolution that will make difficulty go AT LEAST x50 in the next year. And this is conservative. BFL didn't ship anything yet, ASICminer is in their initial stages of deployment, Bitfury didn't start to ship units, and only KNCminer plans to ship 1,000TH/s (2k Jupiter + 2k Saturn actually available in their order system). Now add to that the +200TH in Avalon chips.

You are seeing how difficulty is increasing during the last weeks and this is only the beginning. I'm sorry for your loss.

Oh yeah, your faith in those companies delivering are insurmountable when evidence says exactly the opposite. That says a lot about you... ;D How do you know that those companies won't be turning into another HUGE fail, failing to deliver all the chips til next year or til the coming ages? What does these FACTS say to you?

Extracted from: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=227103.msg2392520#msg2392520


Take a seat and wait for your chips and Terahashes flooding the market... the delays are HUUUGE and well known by everybody. I'm talking about real ASIC mining NOW, not in the future. Anyone can make predictions, calculations, and self-fabricated assumptions like you are making, after all making assumptions is free. Delivering real products, FAST, is not.

If you want to engage in this kind of HIGHLY RELATIVE discussions (like difficulty, aprox. delivery dates, etc) then open a thread and lucubrate all you want. This is an auction, if you don't want to buy or bid, then please kindly get out of this place. Who choses to buy this blade is expected to have a minimum of pre-made calculations and to know which people is delivering for real evaluating the cost/opportunity. And that is how it is called:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

And now... back to the topic, please

That blade will never mine 50BTC in 10 months. Do you accept a 10BTC public bet, escrowed by John K.?

Saying that you will get into ROI for sure in 8-10 months is very misleading, in fact is a borderline scam.

No harsh feeling mate. I'm really sorry for your loss, I'm not joking.

Yes. Obviously he will accept an offer of 25% of asking price from a douchebag JR member that obviously has absolutely no clue what blades are selling for here, through Asicminer or elsewhere. Thank you for your contribution.

He wasn't offering to buy it. He was offering to make a 10 BTC bet.

I'm proposing a BET, I'm not making him an offer. He says that the blade will reach ROI (return on investment) for sure in 8-10 months, I say NO WAY.

Let's consider "return on investment" as a revenue of aprox. +10% of what you invested. Thus, I bet that a 13GH/s blade deployed on Wednesday this week won't generate 50BTC till 19th April 2014. I send 10BTC to John K., he sends another 10BTC to John K. On April 2014th, we make the calculation, considering 95% uptime and 0.2 usd kw/h as electricity cost. If the blade generated at least 50BTC after electricity costs, he receives the 20BTC. If not, I get them.

Don't try logic with him, it's a bad idea. Im also really sorry for your loss op, doubt you'll get anywhere close to your investment back, gl finding a greater fool  :'(

Dude, stop it please. I don't have that 10 btc, I'm not a btc millionaire like you seem to be. Why do you think I want to sell it? Didn't you read my above's answer?

Did you even read my last post specially that quotation?

But as you seem so convinced... we could do it in another way...

If I manage to sell the blade (which I'm on track cos I have several nice offers via PM). Will you accept a 10BTC public bet in John K's scrow assuring that those companies (AVALON, KnC, BFL etc) will deliver their ASIC products w/o delays (making then raise the difficulty as expected by your calculations)?

Thing is I dont know with exactitude what will it take to recover the 50btc, the same way you don't know if that companies will deliver when they say. I can make estimates (10 months for MY calculations), and I can be wrong. The same way you can be perfectly wrong assuring everybody that those companies are going to flood the market with ASIC's at a given point in time. The only fact is, that given their past records, THOSE COMPANIES DONT DELIVER WHEN THEY SAY, but much later, if at all. Read my post above.

There's a risk, there's a cost, and there's a reward. If by your calculations you're not willing to take the risk, then its ok. Now please, stop pouring your theories into this thread.

You don't get it. Regardless of who will deliver and when, a 13GH/s blade priced at aprox. 45BTC will never ROI.

I have a feeling. You came to BTC during this last hype cycle. You just bought your first coins during the bubble, or just after it. You never mined before, but you were blinded by both greed and passion, and you bought a $7.000 because you did not really understood how difficulty was going to evolve. I know the feeling, you see in me an account with few posts, but I arrived to BTC during 2011's hype cycle, and like you I started mining BTC in the worst time - during a bubble. I bought GPUs that I had to turn off because they were not profitable (I do not have free electricity as some do). Then, I switched to FPGAs in 2012, and I also turned on my GPUs again during the 2013 bubble. Finally, I made some profits. 2 years after. Because of my experience, I know very well that only a noob will pay 50BTC for 13GH/s.

TL;DR: I don't care who will deliver or not. As you said "nobody is delivering", and still difficulty went from 2 million in January to 22 million NOW. That's a x10 increase in 6 months, and as you said "nobody is delivering". I know for sure that there are private companies investing heavily in private mining operations that will come online in the next few months. I don't care who will deliver to customers, I just know that a 13GH/s blade will not generate 50BTC in 10 months.

The increase in difficulty of the last months should confirm you what I'm saying. Unfortunately these are facts and not speculation.

You said that a buyer of your blade will "get into ROI in 8-10 months for sure". Are you really sure or are you just trying to suck in "the greater fool"? If you are so sure bet 10BTC with me: you say 13GH/s will have generated 50BTC in 10 months after electricity (95% uptime; 0.2usd kw/h electricity). I say NO.

As people like to say in these forums: "put your money where your mouth is".

Are you serious? ROFL The recent increase in difficulty has been mainly due to ASICMiner delivering and testing their products. lol How do you think this redistribution has been possible possible Mr. Expert Miner?

http://www.imageto.org/images/Wsx4h.png

And not only there, for example I mine on Slush and there was a user who increased the hashrate 20% him alone in 2 hours, after some investigations Slush said that the mysterious miner's nickname was ASICMINER. The only one who delivers as expected.

Facts, not speculation (as you cleverly stated above) xDDD



I said that based on MY calculations. I can be wrong as you also can with your predictions.



Yes, put your money where your mouth is: do you accept my public 10btc bet about those companies delivering succesfully and on time so you can have your gazillions of hashrate in september?

Now go and troll another thread. Here you go, in this one they are selling not one but 8 blades like mine... https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=234426.0
Why don't you go and explain your theories there?

1) Profitability is largely determined by future $ price per btc, which noone knows including you.
2) The last 2 months gap up is largely a result of asic miner coming online.
3) Asic hardware peddled by bfl/avalon will not ship to the masses in any kind of quantity at the price they retailed, why would you sell your hardware for pennies on dollar and at the same time shoot yourself in the foot. They will continue sell the technical challenge koolaid and ship a few units every few weeks to appear legit. The whole dog and pony show avalon did with their chips to ship a few samples after month of wait, then wait months more (still havent shipped) is laughable, tsmc does not operate that way nor are those first run prototype asic chips they are making.  It's all smoke and mirrors designed to delay the asic from the masses.
4) It's bad form to **** on someone's for sale thread especially when the seller looks legit and asking a reasonable market price for his card.  Feel free to create your own thread and you can list out 10000 reasons why it's such a bad investment to buy asic blades.

BITJOINT:

I think you have reading comprehension problems. I never said that the difficulty would skyrocket only because of the different customer-oriented companies will deliver simultaneously and as scheduled. I never said that for your blade to be unprofitable everybody has to deploy and ship as promised and scheduled. On the contrary, the situation is much WORSE for your blade: those companies could be facing huge delays, and your blade will still be unprofitable. Yes: a 13GH/s miner for 50BTC is such a bad investment that will never ROI even if BFL will never deliver and Bitfury and KnCminer turn out to be a SCAM. What about that? I hope you understand now how harsh is the reality. 50BTC for 13GH/s is a SCAM

I will be very clear: I'm not willing to bet that all the the customer-oriented ASIC companies will deliver on time, just because I NEVER SAID THAT. I never said "everybody will deliver in September for sure".

What I said: "YOUR 13GH/s BLADE WON'T ROI IN 10 MONTHS".

You said: "YOU WILL GET INTO ROI IN 8-10 MONTHS FOR SURE".

You wrote you are SURE the blade will ROI. I'm writing I'm SURE it won't. That's the bet. I don't give a shit about who delivers or not. What I'm 100% sure is that the hashrate will keep growing, and that IT'S IMPOSSIBLE THAT YOUR BLADE WILL ROI IN 10 MONTHS. IMPOSSIBLE. Do you get that? Can you understand what I'm writing?

Good. If you are going to accept the bet, I'm here. If not, just admit that is very unlikely that the blade will ever ROI. And this is why you are trying to sell it to a greater fool. If you think it's likely that the blade will ROI in 10 months, then you are a double fool for not earning 10 easy BTC betting against me.

Are you joking, right? This blade is priced in BTC. If the blade does not generate at least as many BTC as it costs, it's unprofitable. Full stop. Or let me check again your bright logic:

1)You buy a miner for 50BTC
2)This miner generates 15BTC in all its life
3)1 BTC goes to $100,000
5)You had 50BTC, now you have only 15BTC
6).......??? Profit? ???

In fact I have a business proposal for you: I'm buying $1,000 from you, and I'm paying $500. Hey man, if the $ becomes stronger and it's exchange rate appreciates you will make a profit, right?
 

Always fun to see JR members that don't understand how even 3rd grade math works justify their troll behavior.

Now better... read the post: I said YOU SHOULD.

I have made 15 btc's in 3 weeks mining with this blade, and I even found one block (25btc). Obv I have sold them cos what I need is cash. So, how can I ever bet 10 btc if I dont have them in first place? Cant you understand it? And why dont you accept my bet? Don't you understand that both bets are mutually exclusive? You are the one who has reading comprehension problems. If you are so sure why won't you accept it? It is too easy to make a bet against MY CALCULATION cos it can be wrong. So lets test your calculations/predictions into a bet...

If those companies fail to deliver on time (as they usually do) the blades are going to have a window of opportunity (which is the reason why I bought this blade) and if that happens then the blades most likely will achieve ROI. But I don't know for sure when, how, or if... NOBODY KNOWS. My calculation said 10 months, it could be more, it could be less, it could be never. I don't know. You don't know. There's too much uncertainty on all sides of the equation.

You pick the card you want to play and that's all:

- Card 1: Start mining this week, NOW, with ASICMiner
- Card 2: Wait for deliveries of companies that historically have failed to deliver since the beginning of time.

Now, I'm not going to tell you to go to another of the dozens of ASICMiner auction threads and troll there, but please leave this thread. This is an auction not a thread for guessing what will happen. You've got thousands of those on the forum.. You (and everyone who plans to buy a blade like this one), have to come here with YOUR OWN estimates done and make a choice. If not you're just trolling around.

It will make a ROI in 8-10 months. I have a blade right now, that is going to generate about 11 btc this month. Difficulty is already looking like it isn't going to be jumping up nearly as much as it did these last 2 periods, which will probably net me about 9btc next month. Month after that, lets say a nice jump in difficulty, so around 6btc to be on the safe side. So far in 3 months it will have made about 26btc.

The great things with ASICs is, even at 100million difficulty ( which is quite aways out ), the blade will still generate around 2btc a month of profit over the power it uses. To hit 100million difficulty, you need to take the current network hash rate of 140 Thashes, and times that by 5. That is not happening in the next 3 months, so you will be making more than 3btc per month after September, and for quite a few months after September as well.

Even at a 200 million difficulty, it will still be making a profit of around 1 btc a month over the power used ( profit is profit, so its a good investment regardless ) . and 200 million difficulty is a looonnnnnnggggggg ways out.

-Brian

yeah but you paid it 40 btc(or 50?), end even if you make profit, would be a tiny one
not worth it imho
when i buy something for profit, i want to make a profit equal to the initial investment, aka ROIx2 at least

So: the bolded part of your reply is a delusion. That won't happen, and if you are so sure that you will get ROI in 8-10 months, I propose you an escrowed bet. I bet 10BTC that a 13GH/s blade won't be able to mine 50BTC in 10 months. Are you in?

[/quote]

Yea I am sure a guy selling his hw to make ends meet is going to take a 10 btc bet... lmao....

No offense but the numbers look way too optimistic to me... there is just no way they are going to get 40+BTC on 13GH/s.

I can see "if you are lucky" 25BTC left in the life of these blades, if they start mining tomorrow.
I created a google spreadsheet in my admittedly pessimistic posting:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.msg2494899#msg2494899

The exponential curve fitted by Wolfram Alpha seemed too low, so I increased the exponential slightly. 

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B28.19%2C2968775%7D%2C%7B40.88%2C3275465%7D%2C%7B65%2C4847647%7D%2C%7B87.9%2C6695826%7D%2C%7B112.11%2C8974296%7D%2C%7B124.59%2C10076293%7D%2C%7B137.2%2C11187257%7D%2C%7B161%2C15605633%7D%2C%7B172%2C19339258%7D

That being said, AsicMiner is prepping their 200THs farm, and Avalon's manufacturing issues seems to have been worked out.  Major hash power is coming soon and this spreadsheet doesn't factor in any of it.  It just follows the exponential curve based on the block solutions starting in 2013.

In mining it is better to err on the side of pessimistic difficulty than bet on favorable.
Obviously, this exponential growth won't go on forever and I can't predict when it will stop... but I am pretty confident that it will continue to grow for the next 8 to 10 months.

I too am sorry for your loss.  If you can get more than 25-30BTC for your blade... consider yourself lucky and jump on it.

You will be lucky to get 40 BTC in a month running 3 blades. Wish I never bought mine :(

ill offer 30BTC for it

asic blade now 15 btc in canada

Just sell it on eBay, they are going from 3500-10,000.

Actually, they are going for $0 on ebay because all the buyers are scammers that will chargeback their paypal accounts and leave you with nothing.  It doesn't matter if the sale price is $10,000 or $100,000.  So if you like that sort of thing, and enjoy having your paypal account locked shortly thereafter because you sold bitcoin hardware, by all means, try to sell on ebay. 

Bro look at the date of thread and they are going for 10.25 BTC each now.  ;D

BUMP
Everyone read this and then think.  That guy bought it in hand and look how that worked out.  Now think about what you are spending for per-orders with murky months away delivery dates.