Title: luck.. what's wrong with this math? Post by: mdude77 on November 13, 2017, 06:48:01 PM I'm overlooking something here, and I'm sure someone can point out to me where my error is.
If a pool finds a block on average every 60 minutes ("100%" luck), then... 1. If that pool finds a block in 1 minute, it's 60x better than expected? 2. Therefore, at the opposite end of luck, 60x worse than expected is 3600 minutes? 3. However the average of 1 and 3600 isn't 60. Is #3 the flawed premise, or is something wrong with #1 and #2? Or all the above? :) Thanks. M Title: Re: luck.. what's wrong with this math? Post by: OgNasty on November 13, 2017, 06:52:21 PM If a pool finds a block on average every 60 minutes ("100%" luck), then... 1. If that pool finds a block in 1 minute, it's 60x better than expected? 2. Therefore, at the opposite end of luck, 60x worse than expected is 3600 minutes? 3. However the average of 1 and 3600 isn't 60. The average shouldn't be 60, because on average it took you 1800.5 minutes each to find the 2 blocks. If it took 1 minute for the first and 119 minutes for the second, then you'd be looking at 100% luck. Title: Re: luck.. what's wrong with this math? Post by: mdude77 on November 13, 2017, 06:57:15 PM If a pool finds a block on average every 60 minutes ("100%" luck), then... 1. If that pool finds a block in 1 minute, it's 60x better than expected? 2. Therefore, at the opposite end of luck, 60x worse than expected is 3600 minutes? 3. However the average of 1 and 3600 isn't 60. The average shouldn't be 60, because on average it took you 1800.5 minutes each to find the 2 blocks. If it took 1 minute for the first and 119 minutes for the second, then you'd be looking at 100% luck. Okay, that means #1 and #2 are invalid. 120 minutes is 2x as long 60 minutes. 30 minutes is 1/2 as long as 60 minutes. Why isn't a block in 1 minute 60x better than expected? M Title: Re: luck.. what's wrong with this math? Post by: QuintLeo on November 14, 2017, 11:04:43 PM The issue isn't that 1 or 2 are invalid, the issues is the mathematics of calculating an average.
