Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Economics => Topic started by: boumalo on November 19, 2017, 03:15:00 PM



Title: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.
Post by: boumalo on November 19, 2017, 03:15:00 PM
I feel I will tell you my opinion about the current Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin has a solid base of believers that trust the system, are optimistics and hold during huge bear markets. It has helped bring stability to the network and bottoms to the market.

Also, Bitcoin is useful in a lot of cases. It's an alternative way of storing value, it's much more decentralized than the banking system, we can securite it away from the banking system and move it across the globe and the amount in circulation is not decided by a government entity.

That being said, we are not in 2014 and the price is relatively high at a 129 billions $ total valuation of BTC in circulation. Remember when it was in the 200s for a while ? It was a valuation of a few billions, it went up 35 fold.

The PR campaign has been good, smart people have build around Bitcoin and crypto, the system and the community have grow without any catastrophic events and it proved the technical robustness of Bitcoin.

The adoption increased but it is not even close to be where it should be to be widely adopted and have less price volatility so a valuation of 100 billions of $ or more is questionable, it's not much use as a currency either and it's a store of value only if you accept the very high volatility.
It's too thin of an analysis to just state that the volatility is not a problem because it will not be there when Bitcoin is widely adopted. While the volatility could decrease, it will likely still be high even at much higher rate of usage and at a higher valuation until the usage is a high percentage of the total amount of currency in use. Even at a 1000 or 5000 billions of $ of valuation, catastrophic events or a decrease in confidence will send the price coming down rapidly.

All the speculators are jumping in, hedge funds are buying, the optimism is extremely high and keeps getting higher as the price goes up. The correlation between btc google search and btc price is known as being 1. Most people are buying to make a profit and sell Bitcoin to get more fiat from another buyer.
The optimism is already included in the price so a correction seems likely short term because when the optimism goes down so will the price. Depending on how low it goes, how long it stays low and how high it rebounds, it will impact the optimism around Bitcoin then problems such as the relatively high transaction fees or BCH being an alternative will not be disregarded anymore.
The price is high because many persons have it and want the price to go up and many more have been added to the pool, the due diligence analysis that are done on the market and the current state of affairs are very low.
We hear people not buying gold because bitcoin has been going up while gold has been stable, it's indeed one of the reason a lot of people have choose bitcoin over gold but when gold price goes up, some bitcoin wealth should move to gold and the gold momentum will be great for gold.

How low can we go ? It could certainly go down close to 1000$ since mining will still remain profitable for some.


When the US and European economies will come crashing down, the FED will create a lot of $ to save the system, it may or may not succeed in saving the system and avoid the biggest violences but it will not save the Dollar as the world currency. When there is war and violence, the State diminishes liberties and jack up taxes and when they will have a chance they may create a Fedcoin invoking the war on drug and crime and the need for more stability and transparency. It will bad for privacy and individual liberties so other crypto will be useful, including Bitcoin, justifying a 2017 USD valuation in the tens of billions.

The idea that Bitcoin can be a store of value for high net worth individuals and that they will have Bitcoin in their allocation portfolio is more plausible than Bitcoin becoming a currency anytime soon, it could bring the price even much higher. It's less a problem to have your bitcoins lose 20% if it's 1% of a multi millions $ portfolio.
Anyway, all the value, time and effort that goes in bitcoins and crypto will create great returns in terms of developing the use of blockchain and using crypto such as the value brought to internet companies during the dotcom bubble were not all lost, some great companies emerged.


Title: Re: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.
Post by: Rashid555 on November 19, 2017, 04:30:09 PM
no i don't agree with you bitcoin has a strong background and it is very popular and very profitable for all users the important thing for bitcoin is that it has much higher value than dollar which is an international currency. like all these all bitcoin is using daily in many transactions toke place through this currency. bitcoin is not a short term bubble it is a long term valuable currency which will provide many opportunities to the world.


Title: Re: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.
Post by: Pytbo on November 19, 2017, 04:41:23 PM
no i don't agree with you bitcoin has a strong background and it is very popular and very profitable for all users the important thing for bitcoin is that it has much higher value than dollar which is an international currency. like all these all bitcoin is using daily in many transactions toke place through this currency. bitcoin is not a short term bubble it is a long term valuable currency which will provide many opportunities to the world.
Bitcoin is close to its technological limit. If people suddenly start making their daily payments in it, a complete collapse will occur. Dont you think about it?


Title: Re: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.
Post by: 50ouncebrew on November 19, 2017, 05:16:55 PM
no i don't agree with you bitcoin has a strong background and it is very popular and very profitable for all users the important thing for bitcoin is that it has much higher value than dollar which is an international currency. like all these all bitcoin is using daily in many transactions toke place through this currency. bitcoin is not a short term bubble it is a long term valuable currency which will provide many opportunities to the world.
Bitcoin is close to its technological limit. If people suddenly start making their daily payments in it, a complete collapse will occur. Dont you think about it?

No this is completely false Bitcoin is not near its technological limit, if there are developments made it can become possible to do more transactions than even PayPal or VISA and then everyone will be able to do unlimited payments.


Title: Re: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.
Post by: ladydark on November 19, 2017, 06:04:57 PM
no i don't agree with you bitcoin has a strong background and it is very popular and very profitable for all users the important thing for bitcoin is that it has much higher value than dollar which is an international currency. like all these all bitcoin is using daily in many transactions toke place through this currency. bitcoin is not a short term bubble it is a long term valuable currency which will provide many opportunities to the world.
Bitcoin is close to its technological limit. If people suddenly start making their daily payments in it, a complete collapse will occur. Dont you think about it?
No.Bitcoin is not close to its technological limit.Transactions got stuck mainly due to miners switching to BCH and also lots of spam transactions sent to artificially create traffic and make thousands of transactions stuck.Otherwise,every thing was going smooth with segwit activation.Transactions got confirmed quickly even at lower prices.The artificially created traffic would soon get solved.


Title: Re: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.
Post by: Vannie12 on November 19, 2017, 06:32:45 PM
Bitcoin already survived almost a decade. Such ideas of bitcoin bubble is nonsense(merely). But as long as there are users, bitcoin will stay alive. There was a great switch between BCC from BTC that is why another false bitcoin bubble was being concluded. But it was a clear scam.
We can actually say that bitcoin is better than any coins that is why there is no need to worry about it.


Title: Re: Bitcoin is probably a short-term bubble guys.
Post by: aoihs00 on November 19, 2017, 06:55:43 PM
It is just temporary that bitcoin is getting obstructed due to its limited potential for now. Its like the hidden powers are yet to be revealed for the bitcoin. There are not enough development into bitcoin yet and that is what restricting it from going the beyond limits that we have put on it. Otherwise which currency with so much value wonít be ruling the world? I mean come on everyone know thats just technical disavtanges for the bitcoin and what it needs is just the upgrades like a software do for the best performance. And it will surely. So I donít think its bubble and if it is then it will last little longer but not longer.