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Title: Newest scam in town! Post by: elements on June 27, 2013, 02:12:35 AM Hi guys,
I was looking for interesting sites about ripple and found this nice little scam site: http://www.rippleflip.com/ - provably fair ;) http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/4448/99h.png (http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/801/99h.png/) Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us) Just so you now: these are all my bets (1 xrp to 70 xrp) (also note, that the one bet I "won" I hit the multiplier x 0.5) lol! So be warned ! ;) Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: TheSpiral on June 27, 2013, 02:24:05 AM What is the scam?
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: elements on June 27, 2013, 02:27:43 AM 8 bets - all lost (seems very fair).
lol Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: Hydroponica on June 27, 2013, 02:28:39 AM 8 bets - all lost (seems very fair). Guessing you've never been to a casino ::)lol Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: daggerismo on June 27, 2013, 02:31:24 AM and the scam is...
that you lose all your bets? or just because you win only 1 bet?? have you ever enter to a casino and played some money?? hello!!! this is earth calling!!! is there some brains in that head??? Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: skull88 on June 27, 2013, 02:31:50 AM Ever played roulette in a casino?
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: elements on June 27, 2013, 02:38:14 AM have you ever thrown a coin?
This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure. I just thought people would like to know. (BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning) Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal... Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: TheSpiral on June 27, 2013, 03:08:21 AM have you ever thrown a coin? Coin flipping is a scam? Do you need a dictionary?Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: coinerd on June 27, 2013, 08:17:42 AM Seems to be doing ok now.
http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/9183/erv8.png Sometimes you just have to walk away from the table for a while. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: champbronc2 on June 27, 2013, 08:28:11 AM Real title "Newest idiot in town!"
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: iANDROID on June 27, 2013, 08:29:37 AM 0.5x payout :D :D
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: Lauda on June 27, 2013, 08:45:10 AM Seems to be doing ok now. Yeah I just saw that aswell.http://anonymouse.org/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http://img4.imageshack.us/img4/9183/erv8.png Sometimes you just have to walk away from the table for a while. It's not a scam. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: Hydroponica on June 27, 2013, 11:49:25 AM have you ever thrown a coin? This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure. I just thought people would like to know. (BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning) Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal... Its called gambling. The house always wins, idiot ::) I don't gamble, because I don't like to lose. You always lose, more than you win, that's how they make money. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: Rippleflip.com on June 28, 2013, 06:23:39 AM Hello!
It was a surprise to see our site being called a scam here. To be clear, it is not. And we of course can prove it. Please, input your ripple address here to verify the game outcome: http://www.rippleflip.com/?data We will answer all your questions via our thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=242574), pm, IRC (Rippleflip@Freenode) or email. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: skull88 on June 29, 2013, 06:30:47 AM have you ever thrown a coin? This is not roulette. Look at the payout structure. I just thought people would like to know. (BTW I wouldn't consider getting back 50% of your wager winning) Oh, and I hereby invite you to play if you think it's such a good deal... Quote The house edge of the game is ~1.85%. Ten coins are flipped, each coin landing on either or side. Resembles roulette when playing Black-Red, Even-Odd and 1 to 18 - 19 to 36. Only difference here, they don't take one turn but 10. For your coin, what makes you think you can't pick the wrong side 8 times in a row? Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: worldinacoin on June 29, 2013, 06:38:26 AM It is gambling, you are sure to lose and no one forces you to play
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: Slipage on June 29, 2013, 06:41:37 AM Agree with most of the comments, you are gambling that many times, you are certain to loose everything , and it won't be a scam, just stupidity on your part.
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: jubalix on June 29, 2013, 08:00:58 AM why would I gamble/use a system that is provable = I lose?
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: worldinacoin on June 29, 2013, 08:05:08 AM why would I gamble/use a system that is provable = I lose? Yeap, why why why? You have to answer it yourself. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: cdog on June 29, 2013, 09:09:07 AM Anything involving Ripple is pretty much a waste of time at best, or a scam at worst.
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: redtwitz on June 30, 2013, 04:22:36 AM There are 210=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to:
Code: 1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1 This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc. On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails. That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing. If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.656258 = 0.03439969 = 3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: STT on June 30, 2013, 05:10:00 AM Probably the best answer your'll ever get. Pascal was the Don 8)
Goto a local fair and the stalls are using really old laws of probability to make an easy win over you. I remember seeing the Pascal triangle as a game several times & it wins $50 if you reach that far end 1 in 1024 chance event I thought some sort of error in probability where it became exploitable would be the downfall of BTC somehow but apparently not so far Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: Rippleflip.com on June 30, 2013, 08:54:41 AM There are 210=1024 different possible outcomes when flipping a coin 10 times. If that coin is fair, the outcomes will be distributed proportionally to the values of the eleventh row of the Pascal triangle, that is, proportional to: Code: 1 10 45 120 210 252 210 120 45 10 1 This means that if you repeat this game 1024 times, the expected outcome is 1 time all heads, 10 times 9 heads and 1 tail, 45 times 8 heads and 2 tails, etc. On Rippleflip, you lose your entire bet if you get 4 heads (or whatever they call it) and 6 tails or vice versa. I agree with you that recovering half of your bet isn't exactly winning, so you also lose if you get 5 heads and 5 tails. That means that in every game there's a chance of (210 + 252 + 210) / 1024 = 672 / 1024 = 0.65625 = 65.625 % of losing. If you play 8 times in a row (like you did), you'll lose all 8 times with probability 0.656258=0.03439969=3.439969 %. That sound unlikely, but statistically 1 out of every 1 / 0.03439969 = 29 customers will lose his first 8 games in a row. I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32% Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: redtwitz on June 30, 2013, 06:46:05 PM Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD. I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested: Code: Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %. I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32% The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying. I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: gogxmagog on June 30, 2013, 11:39:56 PM the ponies have been scamming me for years.
Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: Rippleflip.com on July 01, 2013, 06:32:27 AM Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD. I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested: Code: Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %. I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32% The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying. I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here. You're correct. Title: Re: Newest scam in town! Post by: MPOE-PR on July 01, 2013, 02:35:19 PM Our house edge is ~1.85% as we've stated at Rippleflip.com. For comparison, that is lower than for example SD. I'm not arguing that. I did the math. For anyone who's interested: Code: Multiplicator|Probability|Expected earnings Since the expected earnings are 1005 / 1024 of your bet, the house's edge is (1024 - 1005) / 1024 = 19 / 1024 = 0.018554687 = 1.8554687 %. I would like to correct you that when indeed the 5/5 wins half of the bet, the real chances for losing are 53.32% The probability of losing your entire bet is 41.02 % and the probability of losing half of it is 24.61 %. Therefore, the probability of losing at least part of your bet is 65.63 %. That's all that I'm saying. I think the math behind your 53.32 % is flawed; you're mixing probability and expected value here. So exactly what is the scam, I don't get it. Your chances to lose your first 5000 state lottery tickets are pretty good, does this make the state lottery a scam? (Not that it isn't a scam, but not for this reason.) |
