Bitcoin Forum

For all of those you like to say HODL.

If you wait long enough it will bounce back.

As an example look at the Dow Jones stock index.

If you bought in 1929 just before the downturn you had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

If you bought in 1966 just before the downturn you also had to HODL for 30 years until the price was back where you bought it

Don't believe it? see for yourself: http://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Are you willing to HODL when the price goes down and risk having to wait 30 years to get back up?

Bitcoin is not controlled by the bankers, so those rules don't apply in my opinion.

This is absurd, you can't just tale past charts from completely different industry, apply it to Bitcoin and make any sorts of conclusions. It's not even right to take past charts of Bitcoin and extrapolate it to the future saying that Bitcoin will be worth millions in 10 years, because eventually the rally will have to slow down and the price will stabilize, there's also always a tiny possibility that Bitcoin will fail, either completely or just crash to low levels and stay there. Many people are expecting crash now, because we had many crashes in the past after big gains, but it took a few years or even a just few months to break even, so if the history will actually repeat itself, it will be far less than 30 years to recover from investing in the wrong time.

But you're missing one major point. And it's that these are crypto currencies and have nothing to do with those events.
BTC is about 7 years old and during these 7 years the price of 1 bitcoin made it from $0.01 to $8200.

Hodling in the crypto world especially when referring to bitcoins nowadays (due to the crazy price fluctuation that has been going on for the past few weeks) is of way shorter terms.

In fact, if you had bought in the beginning of October, you could have doubled your money. Was that 30 years ? That was 30 days :D
This doesn't guarantee that prices follow constant patterns in any way. Crypto is unpredictable and has a lot of factors that affect it.

You cannot compare that of the DOW market and that of the crypto market. They are not one in the same so lets stop apply this backwards logic to both industries please and thank you :)

The entire financial system is not based on any rules and laws. It is controlled manually. Theoretically this is possible with bitcoin. But the main difference of bitcoin from Fiat is that it has no centralized control. Such manipulation is simply not possible. This index does not work in cryptoamnesia.

Make sense. The bitcoin is art work of decentraslied blockchain where nothing is controlled by any one person or institution. Here everyone is contributing to the value of bitcoin, even your $100 can move the market by some tiny percentage and thats what defines the real value for it. So I don't think my investment will turn down and I will have to wait for the bitcoin to rise agin for next 30 years.

I mean the average time for the bitcoin to recover from the downturn is about two to three week, lolz so that makes sense why bitcoin is safer place to invest your money no matter what how many pas theories are proven here.

What's the point of this post? It doesn't take a genius to see that crypto-markets are vastly different to stock indexes.
It clearly wouldn't take as much time to make similar trades with cryptocurrency as it would while trading traditional assets, crypto markets don't even compare to traditional assets in terms of volatility.

Your theory is easily debunked when doing a quick analysis of the Bitcoin historical price charts, even if you had bought just before the worst of Bitcoin price crashes (Mt. Gox fiasco), it would only have taken 4 years to get in profit again.

Yes I completely agree even the old laws or old system nothing works with crypto currency or bitcoin now everything changed we can’t even compare the old strategy wher no technology was exists now internet accessible everywhere . Don’t compare old laws with new revolution

Bitcoin or crypto currency dont controlled by any bank or government so in that case ghis rule will not apply.

The way your saying this means that even 30 years is less. No Matter what happens you'll regret one day thinking that you should have waited for some more time to spend btc when the prices will be much higher. That's not how it goes. BTC prices will keep on increasing and you can't just sit and calculate how much you would have saved if you would have used it few months later and stuff.

You're reading the chart wrong.

1) You used inflation adjusted prices which utterly inflates the recovery time and actually shows how much fiat -- not stocks -- lost in value during your given timeframes. Ignoring inflation you get a recovery times from 1929 - 1954 and 1965 - 1972. Not nearly as dramatic as you make it seem. And the first timeframe included a world war.

2) You're ignoring dividends. Crypto doesn't have them, but you can't assess stock prices without looking at dividends as well. Accounting for dividends aforementioned recovery times shorten even more.

gg

My god you don't understand inflation do you?

Taking inflation into account makes the payback time much longer.

Buying at - for example - 1000$ in 1929 and then getting 1000$ back in 1959 is still a de-facto loss due to inflation as the same 1000$ is worth less in 1959

and much much worse for the period 1966-1996 which includes the period in the 1970s of very high inflation

The loss of purchasing power caused by inflation would have been significantly higher if you weren't invested in stocks -- or  possibly precious metals or bonds -- during that time.

Assuming you are arguing that it's safer to keep your assets in cash the timeframe starting from 1965 goes against your argument. Because all that timeframe shows is the importance of being invested during a time of questionable monetary policies -- ie. most of the time.

As long as you have trust bitcoin it can be a good long term coin and wait a couple of year is worth it.

People who hodling have different concept of money from those holding stock, hodler are not counting how many dollar will be in their pocket they wait for the world where BTC is currency/representation of money that can be use to purchase anything, in the meantime they use small amount of BTC to buy their daily need, if you worried about not getting back your investment in dollar term from BTC you buy then you are not hodler, just another regular BTC investor/speculator

Very bad analogy!

You compared very different industries with different times. "Hodling" for Bitcoiners can mean one or two years, it simply mean to not day trade or make too much activity on exchanges.

I don't think that this would be easy for everyone. Accidents happen and people need emergency funds sometimes. It's not bad for Bitcoin is someone spends a bit more every now and then. Funds moving within the economy is a good thing so long as there is demand to absorb selling pressure.

The cryptocurrency market is speculative. Pretty much everyone who dabbles in it is aware that it could boom or crash without warning. People like advocating HODLing, but I'm sure they still acknowledge that there is risk involved.

That being said, there have been plenty of price drops in the past, and I've usually never had to wait more than a month for the price to bounce back. If you're that worried, maybe you shouldn't be involved in cryptocurrencies. Time to sell, bud. If you even have any. :)

The most important takeaway here.

If you invest in something -- be it stocks, commodities or cryptocurrencies -- only use an amount that you are comfortable with having invested for a prolonged timeframe. With everything else just stay in cash. Simple as that.

this is hard to estimate, you can not just outperform the past charts of an entirely different industry, apply it to Bitcoin and make some sort of conclusion. It's not even true to take a graph of Bitcoin's past and forecast it into the future by saying that Bitcoin will be worth millions over the years, because it will be less likely that Bitcoin will fall, either whole or just experience low levels.

Why wait 30 years? Invest now in future projects and get profit within 3-5 years and you have enough for a lifetime)

For me investing in Bitcoin is a gamble for almost everyone because it is not a stable way to invest money, because while it is not controlled by governments, it is simply being controlled by someone who's in charge and this is while Bitcoin is a risky way to invest but it's on you if you'll take the risk for the better or worse than you can imagine.

i was missing the OP and this kind of topics but let's try to answer properly (and take the bait):
Why you have to wait for 30 years for your money?
What if i got couple of BTC when it was, for example, 5k and sell it now at around 11k? what's your point?
waiting for 30 years might get you a billionaire or with a 0 value wallet, this bait was very low mate.

I don't quite understand why you would have to wait 30 years just now what you put in is relatively safe bitcoin hasn't completely plummeted. If you mean wait 30 years to see returns that very early adopters have then more than likely yes.

The rules of the games have changed to what its traditionally obtainable in the finance  world. The reference you made is not applicable to bitcoin or digital currency rather to stocks whose price increase is greatly regulated. The directors of the companies involved would have taken care of their families to generations before thinking of doing activities that could increase the market value of their shares and the cumulative of this to have effect will take the 30years.

But in the case of bitcoin, no one is given that authority so the forces of demand and supply are allowed to play their role to the fullest with individuals being the determinants of the direction with all this, I don't think it's informed to compared the two.