Bitcoin Forum

That's the question.
Be honest, so that we all can figure the right BTC price.

I bet people are panic selling right now by watching the price go down.  It's called a positive feedback loop: people see the price go down, go oh crap, better get out now, they sell, other people do the same and the process repeats. 

I was going to post a thread with a poll asking people if they're buying or selling or holding, but this is close enough to what I was going to ask that I'll just stick with this thread.  For those of you who are selling, my recommendation is to just hold your coins: selling is only going to make the drop in price worse than it is now. 

I have just bought some coins ^^

wire arriving monday morning

And then, maybe you'll be left holding the bag.  ;)

Really, though, that sort of thinking doesn't benefit individual actors; it isn't based in rational self-interest. Telling people not to do something won't break the loop. Investors are trying to make (and keep) profits, not support the price.

I want to see that ass dive WAYYY down to the floor! >$10 USD FTW!!!! I Will dump loads of $ into BTC then C:

I am personally holding (my BTC). If I had USD to play with, I would start buying at the first signs of trend reversal.

You're right, it doesn't.  It's a risk I'm willing to take.  I only have about $500 invested in bitcoin.  I know it's a gamble, but if Bitcoin really takes off long term, that $500 will be worth a hell of a lot more than the same amount invested in the stock market.  And if my gamble ends up being wrong, well, I'm only out $500, I can afford that kind of loss.

...The question of selling is basically academic for me anyway since my bitcoins are locked up in a Coinlenders CD, so I couldn't sell even if I wanted to now.

Hi, I'm new here and watch BTC just vor some weeks, so excuse me if I write glibberish stuff ... At the beginning I thought, like a lot of people here as I read lurking around this place, wow, BTC would soon explode ... than I realized - no. Not soon. Maybe sometimes. As I learned, BTC would survive everybody here, it doesn't has to run.

My guess for the bottom, if I am realistic: 12 $. Maybe 15, maybe less ... Maybe even less than 1$. My reasons?

First I see absolutely no reason, why BTC should rise in the next month. Commercial adaptation is far away, and no businessman ever would accept BTC if he had a glance at the charts. For that to happen we need a long and stable bottom and slowly rising prices. Than it would be a good deal for business-man to accept BTC, and as soon as amazon or ebay does, we'll see the moon. But this won't happen soon.

Second I see some fundamentals dumping the price:
- The miners. Even in the second reward era the Miners will collect 1.25 million BTC a year. I don't know how much they sell. Half of it? Even if price goes down to 50$ the market needs an inflow of more than 30Mio$ to keep price stable.
- the olders: How would you do, if you made hundredthousands of coins in 2009/10/11 for nearly nothing and see them at a price of 2013 - no matter if its 100, 50, 10$? I would sell, not a once, but continualy, maybe 1.000 a month, which would make me a good living and also I would rest on a big amount of BTC for when it is grown up.
- the investors: I don't know if really some greek or cyprics have jumped on the BTC-train to save their money from the hands of the bail-outing state. If they did, they never wanted to make BTC adapt anything. They just wanted to have a parking lot for the money. And when the nebula lifts and they find a new place for the money, the cash out. Maybe with win, so they are lucky.

In my opinion these trends are unavoidable. Do you see any trend up?

I actually not. As I said, commercial adaption is far away (I don't say it will never come, the opposite, I am optimistic with this). I martered my head with this issue. Maybe gambling? What if world of warcraft excepts bitcoins? Or, better, Satoshis? If I could, I would buy one BTC and hide 100.000.000 Satoshis in a virtuell world. If you take satoshis, they could become the universal currency for online-playing, and I think this would have real value, for players and game-developers ... No matter what's the price for a BTC - Satoshis will always be cheap enought.

Here is a reason big as an ocean:
Beware, the International Tax Man Cometh
http://ragingbullshit.com/2013/06/29/beware-the-international-tax-man-cometh (http://ragingbullshit.com/2013/06/29/beware-the-international-tax-man-cometh)

My USD is ready and waiting.

I answered $10 to $30 but for me it's more about time than about money. My idea of what's going to happen is based on an "informed gut feeling".  I think it's going to take several months for this downtrend to reach its conclusion. Maybe more than a year. I'd say at least 6 months but no more than 3 years.

There is no bottom :(

Waaay too many people want to buy for the price to drop below $50. My guess is $70-80 will be the bottom.

$50 short-term

$10 - $30 medium-term

I'm not going to argue about most of your post. But since you're new, I want to provide a history lesson, along with an argument as to why I consider <$1 to be an extremely unlikely scenario.

https://i.imgur.com/HTDmEdo.png

This is a chart of the end of 2011. After the first Big Bubble popped at $33/coin, the BTC market was in a downtrend. Many predicted, on this very forum, that BTC was dying and it was just a matter of time.

The price got to $2 in mid-November. At that time, Mt. Gox experienced the biggest trading volume ever - a record that remained unbroken for eighteen months. For several days, the market threatened to break through $2/BTC. It did not. Even in the face of a bubble that brought the price above $1/BTC and had been slowly sputtering out for six months, even among doomsayers who believed with all their hearts that the Bitcoin experiment had failed and prices like $30/coin were a one-time event, never to come again... even in such a climate, people wanted BTC for $2. People wanted them enough that the price never crossed that line. It was an insurmountable foundation of support, and from there the price began to climb again.

Now, the BTC price has beaten the previous bubble - market participants know that high prices were not a one-time opportunity. There are major online services that accept it, other than Silk Road. There's been media attention. In today's environment, what could possibly hurt confidence in the currency any worse than it was hurt in November 2011? What could possibly make people less confident in BTC than they were a year and a half ago, when they bought in with all their might at $2 a coin?

Don't get me wrong; I think the price is going to keep falling for a while. When I try to rule out my emotionality, the math of it looks like we're going to either $30ish or $11ish as our nadir. But given what happened in the latter days of 2011, I cannot imagine what would force the price below $2/coin that wouldn't have done it then.

Just splitting hairs here... :)
The low was $1.994 and only came because of MASSIVE forced liquidations from Bitcoinica. Otherwise, $2 would not have been breached.

Wise words.

I would have to think the bottom is higher than $50. I don't remember exactly how it happened, but the price never dropped below that amount even with everyone in full panic mode in April. I hope I'm not being naively optimistic here.

What makes you think it'll hold at $50?

I answered the question in the poll.  The I read the OP.  Those questions have different answers.  Which one should I be responding to?

While I may be able to make a decent guess at the bottom, I will rarely be exactly right.  I will be buying all along the way.

You have a point: the title is objective and the poll subjective.
But that is how polls work: they make subjective questions to deduct "objective" conclusions.
 
The reason is to try to get a more accurate picture if the answers are honest, since anyone can guess anything, but he can say with much more certainty what he is going to do.

On a second thought an even better question about the bottom in a bear market could have been: "at what price would you stop selling BTC", since "would you buy at X price" seems more useful to find the top in a bull market.  

I think we are just at the beginning of 'Sell!'.

I'm not seeing market capitulation here, there is still hope.

For what reason would we capitulate, give that we already have before (twice, more perhaps?)
it's not like there's no light at the end of the tunnel, the fact that we've survived the last ones has conditioned us. We know there's light at the end of the tunnel, contrast this to the first time we had to deal with this, from 32->2. Capitulation will be briefer and briefer until this market matures. we're focusing too hard on the bubble of 2011 and forgetting the other capitulations we had before, such as in August of 2012.

I'm not an expert at anything. It's Saturday night after the bar and I might be drunk. I might not even understand what I'm writing and I have no data to back up my thoughts, but here they are anyways..

My feeling is that we are approaching a massive sell-off in all markets. Cash will be king, for a while. Perhaps bitcoin will be a form of cash during this time, perhaps not.

For a short time, there will be some incredible opportunities to buy certain commodities, companies, or properties, at extremely low prices as people are forced to sell almost everything they own simply to feed their families.

The problem I see happening is that people will expect a recovery, a return to 'normal'. I don't think most people realize that what we have been experiencing over the last 30+ years; what most people think is 'normal' is simply massive inflation and debt accumulation and this is not sustainable.



This party is going to end. The music will stop. All that will be left is the scrambling for chairs.



"Remember democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide." - John Adams.

Aye, it is a good time to own physical, tradable goods. We are seeing a rally in the USD while people cash out of other currencies to the world reserve but devaluation of the USD is a mathematical certainty.

I would say $20 will be the bottom.

There is my math:
$32 = $2 * 16
$266 = $16.6 * 16

But $20 could be a strong psychological barrier before reaching $16-17.
And it will be a long long way down there, I'd say 6 months from now, full of smaller retraces and false trend reversals.

NO :)

Someone here said 50 $ ... Yea, I think around $ 50 something will happen. A lot of people will buy - "cheap coins" - and price will rise. But somewhere, maybe around 100, uptrend will stop and they realize, that this is not the next big rising. So: they sell, making some profit, and price goes down. And than there will be no fight about the 50, it will break and go down ...

Even this is possible.
If theoretically all Bitcoin MtGOx today to sell at any price (which will not happen), we get for $ 50.
Then would temporarily increase the price.
But if even then the offer will be higher than the demand will drop again.

That is why it is so difficult and risky to catch a falling knife... ;)


http://i41.tinypic.com/99gwzm.jpg

My guess 60 will be the ultimate bottom... slowly toward 60 in the next year, then up to 2000 !

Didnt that already happen when the price dropped from 266 to 50 and then went to 100~130?

Be smart. Only below $30 it is attractive to add to current supply.

bottom has probably already been hit.  I think big players are artificially keeping price down so their big time friends can get in at the "best lowest price"

I really don't see any dramatic drops to say < $30, simply because there's too many people expecting it.  Circumstances surrounding this correction are way different than the June 2011 bubble; expecting a correction anywhere near that dramatic is foolish IMHO.

"Big players" could easily drive the price down to single digits. There is not a large supply of coins or a lot of liquidity. That's one of the dangers of holding bitcoins at the moment -- price manipulation. Over time that will change hopefully.

But they won't because of the risk of not being able to buy back in for less than they sold and recovering their stake. Other "big players" are waiting to eat those guys up, given the right circumstances. You must be new around here :)

A lot of assumptions there.

answer:  who the hell knows. no one could predict these things, even the 'experts'. all one can do is to make a calculated guess.

I think we're aiming at $25. Too much Hopium keeping the price up, people dreaming of financial independence. But dreams don't come true without hard work and there are too many people sitting out on the sidelines and just speculating rather than working to invent the future we deserve.

bottom is $30, hit this time next week

9.97$ for sure