Bitcoin Forum

Our Bitcoin prediction market Predictious (http://www.predictious.com), is launching today in the afternoon (pacific time). We aim to provide a replacement for InTrade, using Bitcoin.

We will post more information at the time of launch. We thank everybody who participated to the preview.

Feel free to post questions or feedback here.

Is this like a binary options site where you bet if price will go up or down within a set amount of time or more like a forex/stock trading station?

I just registered hoping I'd be able to submit my own predictions.
Nope.
Hope you guys add the ability to submit your own picks. I can understand why you wouldn't want people submitting all sorts of non-verifiable predictions and alike but couldn't there be a simple moderator reviewed system? I'd rather be able to submit my own picks and have to wait a few hours or a day for it to get approved than have to pick from stuff like "will the royal baby be a boy or a girl?" There are 50+ different choices for entertainment, 0 for science & tech, and some for economics but all are either guessing btc price or difficulty.
Bitcoin users don't strike me as the type that are inclined to give a shit about celebrities compared to science&tech and economics.
Add the ability for users to submit they're own, I know I'd throw some btc in then.

looks really cool.

awesome Verge article as well.

I hope someone does prediction 4 btc all the way right, and this looks like the best shot.  An "Intrade-style" market with trustworthy & fair operators has been much needed.

best of luck to you guys.

EDIT:   just tried to sign up, wants my google acct :(    IMO bitcoin gamblers do not want accounts at all if possible.  A simple no-dox registration is acceptable as well.

Have any trades been executed yet? I don't see an order book for any of the options.

Cool.

This was inevitable from the moment that intrade shut down.

Hopefully we'll see an increase in the number of available predictions, charts, etc...

Will users be able to make (or at least suggest) their own predictions?

Would I be betting against you? Where do you get the money to pay me out? If you have bad luck and you cannot pay, what then? I say scam! At least as long as you don't give proof you can deliver.

I click create an account and it goes to google.  How do I create an account without using google?

Nice write-up from BitcoinMagazine:
http://bitcoinmagazine.com/predictious-prediction-markets-are-coming-back-with-bitcoin/

I'll take .05 btc on manslaughter. jury nullification ftw.

Nice show of ignorance.

Why does it not show the competing bids, and quantity available?  2FA would be nice also.

It would appear as though that's the only option right now.  Hopefully that changes soon.

I've visited, almost seems like a beta site.  Very good idea though, this will be easier to access than Intrade for most, and could easily be wildly successful.  Who is behind this?  Right now I just see 'Predictious' who seems like a new user without even many posts.

Here's some background information taken from the article:
Predictious was created by Flavien Charlon, a developer with a prior background in mobile applications and Facebook applications, and is his first Bitcoin-related project. The parent company, Pixode, is based in Ireland, and the project is currently largely a solo effort – “although I am getting some help from a friend,” Charlon points out.

Trade history would be useful also, Intrade had a chart showing price over time and volume.

Was going to sign up but then saw it required a Google account.

Pass.

I've been waiting for this, and this site looks great.

However:

No shit. I've been looking everywhere to try and find how big the fee is without success. Could you clarify this?

Secondly, I'm interested in market data for your bets. Mostly I'm just missing the market depth, but trading history and such would be really nice to have as well.

I agree.  Is the site operator still going through with this?  Seems quiet.

This is more like a binary options site, but more advanced than traditional pari-mutuel sites like betsofbitcoin.


We actually take suggestions about new markets, review them and post them online if we feel they meet our quality bar. Feel free to submit market suggestions here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new).

We use Google accounts for authentication only. Google accounts is one of the most secure authentication mechanism you can find on the web. Also Google accounts supports 2-factor authentication with a large range a options (SMS, android, iPhone app, etc...). This is ideal for securing an account that holds funds. What's more likely, the NSA comes after you because they discover you use a Bitcoin website, or you get your password and your Bitcoins stolen?


You bet against other people, like on Intrade.
We plan to add an order book soon.

Yes, we also plan to add this soon.

The transactions fee is 2% at the moment.

Yes, sorry about this, we forgot to follow up on this thread. We update the site daily. If you have urgent questions, you can also ask here (https://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new).

Would like to see some more events.  Site seems to be lacking in major sporting events in particular, which are more likely to see some action, especially around game day.

No problem.  This thread or another 'Official' one on here could be very helpful in gaining you customers since you're a BTC business.  Some sites put a link to their thread on their website also.

Predictious added order book, can be found under market depth.
https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016/hillary-clinton#marketdepth

Looks like fun. I forgot how much I miss InTrade. Sort of like peering at society's subconscious mind. Thanks for starting this.

That's what i thought also.  They have an official thread now:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264443.0
This one was just to announce the launch I think.  I made a thread for posting your picks also.

Thanks Hfleer for mentioning our new official thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=264443) and for starting the thread for people to post their picks (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=262139.0).

We'll be checking and following up on feedback coming through bitcointalk, as well as anything coming directly to us (through twitter (https://twitter.com/predictious), google+ (https://plus.google.com/113871614842973752902), facebook (http://www.facebook.com/Predictious), email (http://predictious.desk.com/customer/portal/emails/new)), so please keep it coming  :)