Bitcoin Forum

1 Bitcoin 2011
2 Bitcoin end 2013
3 Bitcoin early 2013
4 Bitcoin 2017 (ongoing...)
5 Tulip-mania 1637

Charts here : http://gautiersblog.blogspot.ch/2017/12/larget-bubble-in-history.html (http://gautiersblog.blogspot.ch/2017/12/larget-bubble-in-history.html)

If bitcoin really was a bubble, and people could predict this in advance. They could stand to make a lot of money by shorting bitcoin or by investing in bitcoin's competitors which would stand to benefit when the bitcoin bubble popped.

There are many who claim bitcoin is a bubble, but none of those people are willing to put money on their own prediction.

Maybe I'm old school but I miss past eras when people made a point of standing by the things they say, rather than feeling entitled to say random things that even they don't believe in.

If that's true us who missed the train may have a second chance in coming months...

Why does everyone always assume that speculative bubbles are something bad? Anything can be a bubble. A stock in the stock market, a commodity, a currency, anything that is freely traded in an exchange can be a bubble.

It doesnt mean, BTC is a bubble, therefore it has no value. No. Its more like, BTC is in a bubble and will correct to its real price sooner or later. The term bubble is not a noun, its an adjective to describe a noun.

until now, no one can proof it about bitcoin bubble. because some people does not attract investment in bitcoin, so issue about bubble maybe from competitors

Numbers 1-4 on the list are all the same bubble. You don't take a temporary fall and use it as evidence a "bubble" has "popped." Just as a temporary drop doesn't evidence a bubble has popped, nor does the period after it has dropped indicate a new bubble. Bitcoin has a whole is all part of the same bubble, and it's still in the inflationary period. There have been no bubbles burst here, as a burst bubble indicates a permanent impairment in the price, or at least one that lasts far longer than anything that has been seen in this market.

I totally agree. It's either one BIG bubble, or not a bubble at all. Anyway, i'm sure there's a lot of uncertainty going on which could mark the start of a correction, but quite obviously, greed is still overpowering.

By the technical definition of a bubble (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble), I think that bitcoin is probably in bubble territory because there's no good way to figure out what its intrinsic value is.  It also isn't really "backed" by an economic system like fiat currencies.

That said, I'm not really sure how much it matters, at least for the short to medium term.  Ultimately, bitcoin's price will, of course, continue to rise as long as demand exceeds supply.  And there seems to be a lot of potential for increased demand in the form of people who would like to invest but don't have easy access (e.g., through an ETF), as well as skeptics who may eventually decide to board the train (especially large institutions like banks).

Eventually, I think there will be a day of reckoning when the supply of buyers dries up as a result of everyone-who-cares being invested.  However, that day still seems to be a ways off.

I don't see bitcoin to be a bubble.The reason is bitcoin is not just a asset which many people consider nowadays due to which they continuously say bitcoin to be a bubble and it would burst.But bitcoin has a feature of currency too.When big companies like amazon come forward to accept bitcoin which is expected to happen soon,then it would be regularly used as a currency.Already,japan is contributing more for bitcoin to be used as a currency.

So,by this way there would be a continuous demand for bitcoin which would prevent bitcoin usage from dropping down which would inturn not let bitcoin price to crash.In tulips,we saw it has no other usage than a high return giving investment and so,when its price started to crash,it was not backed by any demand.

But it would not happen in bitcoin and even if bitcoin price drops a little,it would get settled down in the range of $15,000 which would not be considered as a crash.More over,its good for bitcoin progress in a long run.

Well, there is a chance that Bitcoin is going to be the largest bubble ever in the world.
Right now, the total market cap for cryptocurrency is around 550 billion USD, not even one trillion. Dot-com bubble burst when its market cap is at 3 trillion dollar, we are still long way to 3 trillion dollar.

LOL. There are a lot of people said that Bitcoin is a bubble :))). If it's just a bubble I think you shouldn't care about it and no need to create this topic :)). But maybe you just want to scare other people to sell their Bitcoin then Bitcoin price will be dump and you will have chance to buy more Bitcoin at lower price :))). I heard a lot of people said the same like you, and after Bitcoin price dumped, they spend a lot of money to buy Bitcoin :)))

Perhaps even many chances!

The thing is that these days people tend to say something that can be controversial for the purpose of landing in the pages of the mainstream media or at least in the digital news sites we already have. And since Bitcoin has now become popular, many of these naysayers are just taking the ride for some exposure. They kept on repeating the same warnings about the Bitcoin bubble again and again. Ironically, the more people are warned about the impending bubble burst, the more Bitcoin rise because there are more buyers on the market deaf to what the naysayers have to say. Would it really be fair to compare that tulip mania that happened in 1600s to the Bitcoin of today? Did that tulip thing also got only 21 million in supply and nothing can be reproduced anymore after that? I understand that we have to cautious when investing something but I am feed up with all of these bubble warnings!

I also believe that Bitcoin is in bubble. I believe the big crash would happened next year as the chart say so. The only thing we can do when it happens is jump to USDT. And one of the charting basic is whatever pump so fast will fall so fast too.  Get ready!

Yes it's a bubble buy a long one. Recently many people has been claiming that bitcoin is a bubble or a scam but most of this people are economist, bankers, gold investors they are mad on how can a ordinary people can make lots of money just by investing thousands that's why they spend most of their time accusing bitcoin as a ponzi scheme. Cause they can't accept that their fiat currency has been bested.

There won't be a bubble which can crash several times,smtimes the price maybe too high,but it won't crash thouroughly

As already mentioned by a lot of the governor about the more people are considering the bitcoin as the new investment place. how the people are going crazy to put more and more money to the bitcoin. The bubble is true due to the volatility of the bitcoin but the fact it is also considered as the investment place.
I talked with a lot of my friends and they are all saying the same about the bitcoin just like an investment place. But it's better than gold.

Not saying bitcoin is a bubble because I don't think it is, but what you are saying is not that easy. Shorting an asset comes with huge liability, and i it was a bubble and they were shorting before it was at the top, and close to pop, they would not be able to keep it's position unless they had a huge amount of funds, to cover their liability. Bitcoin is now mainstream, and every one is now hearing about it and buying it, so even if it was a bubble I don't think this was the right time to short it. Also, if it was a bubble and crashed, buying other coins wouldn't help because they would crash as well, since they share the same fundamentals.

totaly agreed.BTC is helping poor people to break the existing class-gap

On the stock exchange you have (over decades) several bubbles and crashes; it never means that a crash ends the existence of the stock exchange.
Same can be said for real estate.
It also depends on how you define a bubble and a crash...

Please can you quote any economists whom you are referring to? If not, you are just making an aligation that is baseless and unfounded it will be good for you substantiate your allegation when making such a comment in a forum like Bitcointalk.

If bitcoin is a bubble then maybe that 1-4 in your list should not be in the same name. If that is true then bitcoin would have been dead by now, so how come it is still alive up until now? All i can say is only the competitors of bitcoin says that it is a bubble so that investors would have second thought in their minds whether or not they continue to invest on bitcoin or change the plan and invest on other cryptocurrency.

You can only call a bubble when it bursts. Jamie Dimon may hate Bitcoin but he made one statement which rang true. He said he wouldn't short Bitcoin, because it could go to $100,000 before it crashes.
And when we look at Bitcoin in 2011 and 2013, we know that the price recovers even after disastrous crashes, if you give it long enough time.

As bitcoins price is increasing day by day, discussion on the topic “Bitcoin is Bubble” is also increasing. Countries like Australia, China, Japan, Canada etc have already banned bitcoin currency; many countries are planning to regulate the same. Many crypto experts are warning again and again against investments in bitcoin. If bitcoin is a bubble, then when it’s going to burst? From 2009 to 2017 bitcoin has travelled from $0 to $19800. Almost all sectors of economy have invested in bitcoin currency.

 this bitcoin bubble mania has been discussed all the time every single year ever since bitcoin starts to pump but until now bitcoin is still alive and kicking. there were also charts that i think fake that states were now on the bubble phase and soon bitcoin will pop on thin air but then again bitcoin is still here. that is why people are not scared or afraid of this kind of news anymore rather people will be more afraid if bitcoin experiences a major dip or crash/correction because that will surely affect their business.

Fake News?

Bitcoin price has shocked many experts of the industries in their respective fields. Infact CEO of JPM, Warren Buffet and many top notch people are considering bitcoin as a bubble and nothing more. But why is it so they are not changing their statements even after seeing that btc has being becoming stronger day by day and its price is also rising.

I think it is not a bubble but yes some correction you can expect due to sudden rise happening this days.

As mentioned earlier, there are two different things:

• Per-se bubbles: tulips, pyramid schemes, airplane game scams, etc.: once they pop, it's gone.
• Bubbles forming around certain classes of assets (junk bonds, real estate, tech stocks, etc.): once they pop, something real is left after a few months or years.

For instance, the Bitcoin network will continue to work, even after a bear market (like the 2014-2015 one).
Or could something break if the exchange rate BTC/USD goes to low (transaction costs too high perhaps) ?

Nobody is missing the train because this is not a real bubble. It is just the way bitcoin behaves in the market due to its uncertain market and investors. It can sometimes get huge response from the community due to some good news in the market or it could sometimes go down due to the bad news in the market, for example the china news recently! The biggest dump you might have seen back in August. However, after the time was overcome, we saw the giant leap of the bitcoin just because of its new investor base who was more wealthy and trustee. So it got hiked to which people are now calling the bubble. So in short this is confusing statement and the unsolved theory about bitcoin being a bubble. God dam it, this bubble has made many rich people around us.

It's not like anyone can predict the future so that they would know that if indeed bitcoin is a bubble or not and even in spite of all the doom and gloom that they are predicting, bitcoin is rather still booming.

I'm confused now. It's "not a real bubble", but still a bubble that "has made many rich people around us"?
Did those people get rich by selling their BTC? Did they perhaps buy cars, houses,... with the gains?

Bitcoin is not a bubble on its own alone. Bitcoin only pops when a crisis happens like regulating banning etc. or any valuable users have refused to go on in bitcoin they probably sell it more than a millions of dollars.

I don't think bitcoin is a bubble. It had opened a door to many users to get rich in just small amount of time. Bitcoins still doing it, making a lot of millionaires.

That's a good information you got there but I won't be considering the so called " Ongoing " as a bubble since the price is quite stable now.
If it was a bubble then it should probably have gone down by now and should not have been stable. It's not that there is no supply at all as Bitcoins can still be purchased at the current price of $19k . So there is still more room for Bitcoin to grow as it has more potential. The bubble would be big when many big investors would take part in it and the price would rise very much very quickly. Until the time being, there is no way Bitcoin would crash as people are still investing in it.

Wow, it sounds magic!
So how does it work? You buy, wait a bit, then you get rich? It's when you sell that you are rich?

Maybe a bubble, but people believe that everything will be fine. Especially the gap between inflation and descent changes in the big direction, so you can even six months to guess what the price of bitcoin will be. But then it is necessary to sell urgently.

I don't even know why bitcoins are compared to tulips... Yes it was a large investment but bitcoins have surpassed it long before.. Also the fluctuations in bitcoins and the tulip is entirely different no doubt..so is the time right now...years before and now we have improved technologies and better ability to handle the disaster if something happens..
Thus bitcoins and tulip mania are completely different thus I don't think I agree to what you have written..

Yes, even if bitcoin fall it has the capacity to recover itself from the downfall and come back to its original or a new record value. This is the best property of bitcoin and due to this more and more investors join this community of bitcoin. And as there is no guarantee for bitcoin value similarly there is no guarantee for this prediction also. So keep trustinng in Bitcoin it will suearly make you rich in some days.

Okay this is crazy bubble! This has been alway there but I don’t really understand why they call it as bubble even though it is not. The bitcoin ha always been called like this whenever there was some sort of development and then people tried to invest into it when they thought its actual and its real thing of the future. This was the time when bitcoin got its spiking and it evolved into different marketplace with highest market capitalism any other currency could achieve in such short periods. 

These are the events which actually created all the hyped amounts the journalist, economist and related financial institute who then called it as bubble. I mean this is such laughing thing that people are not taking it as real development of the bitcoin but just bubble. Sometime I feel that they are just people who don’t like bitcoin in the first place and nothing else.

So would you recommend newcomers to wait for a downfall + a few months/years before investing?

So do you expect prices to stabilize in the $17K-$19K range? Did we reach a permanent plateau?

I further recommend to invest in bitcoin from now on
because I am sure that bitcoin prices will continue to rise,
as more and more enthusiasts from crypto currency.
the longer we wait we will be left behind by the more expensive price

So people should invest in bitcoin because you are sure prices will continue to rise?
If you look at Google trends (https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=bitcoin (https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=bitcoin)), the peak buzz seems behind.

We cannot blame people if they consider the success of bitcoin as a bubble because what's happening is really something unusual and unexpected. The demand in bitcoin grow very fast that this years made a lot of price correction so that supply of bitcoin will be enough to cover up the increasing demand and because of this a huge pump takes place. The coming years will surely continue this legacy and as much as people want to think bitcoin is a bubble I'm sure investors thinks defferently about it.

I believe that nature is perfect and it makes everything in such a way that you can not get a way with something that is not legitimate yours. I think if we can really see our future we could have been a millioniares in dollars by now but we have to live with this reality that we can't see the future. I know about bitcoin when bitcoin was less than $10 and by then I was having good money with me but I decided to put those money in ponzi scheme that resulted in heavy loses for me but if I could see bitcoin futures I could have become a millionaire by now by just buying few bitcoin then.

Bitcoin is not a bubble, this cryptocurrency and the technology behind it is the enheratege from Mr. Satoshi, he is the proof that everything is possible as long as you believe in it and even if many sayed that bitcoin is a bubble, it already has some years

There are two bubbles, and don't confuse them. Crypto as a whole is definitely in a bubble as everyone has lost their minds over blockchain and anything crypto-related (see all the public companies invoking blockchain without real business plans and their stocks explode anyway). Bitcoin itself is a bubble within the world of crypto. The Bitcoin bubble can pop without the over all crypto bubble popping, for example if everyone decides to "diversify" out of Bitcoin and into alts, the crypto bubble itself can still grow while the Bitcoin bubble pops.

Bitcoin is really a bubble now and maybe onwards for 10 more years. The stock market is in a bubble too. Everyone is too bullish right now.
Too many people are joining just for speculating on the price without properly understanding the implications of the underlying blockchain technology.

Well, Bitcoin was $19,000 earlier this week, and is currently below $12,000 and still falling (along with just about every other crypto asset). While it's too early to call this a bubble popping (it could just be a correction, or it could be a temporary moment of sanity inside the overall mania surrounding crypto that will just see prices go right back up to bubble territory), the rationality seeping into the market at the moment certainly seems to indicate that calling Bitcoin and crypto as a whole a bubble to be more accurate than not. Time will tell.

Honestly, I would have said the same thing some few months back but let's face reality, bitcoin itself is a good thing that has come to stay, but the recent spike in price was a bubble and I guess it just busted.

The huge increase in price shows that so many people were just busy trying to get in on the train thinking it is the last bus stop to riches and wealth without even considering what is really in it to gain as value asides getting rich and that is what makes it a bubble until those guys get shaken off.

It is either a bubble or not a bubble at all, why I said so is because you can not take temporary fall in price to mean a bubble. Why should you list the times bitcoin has gone down past to term it as a bubble that is very wrong. I bubble when it burst it is destroyed never to be good to use again. Any thing can be a bubble even the stock market can be a bubble and so is real estate and even gold, bitcoin has never bursted before and should not be term as a bubble ready to burst.

The whole craziness actually started when people were just seeing bitcoin as their consolation to wealth rather than looking at the main thing that makes it what it is. The bubble just popped and it is crazy because no one knows how long this shit is going down now and it is even affecting the whole market.

People have not gotten scared yet, we will see how much those who think they have gotten quick access to wealth will start shivering now. We really need that sanity back.

This is one of the latest trends ,the olden days era has been eradicated and now a days,you say bull shit and you're trending on the internet. I only wish people had enough facts to prove them right/wrong before self accusing bitoin to be  a bubble. The people who claim these to be bubbles are the ones who benefit the most,they degrade others to sell low and they buy at a unfairly cheaper price. Vicious cunts.

LOL. I don't know why there are still some people think that Bitcoin is a bubble :)). It's just a small dump and it's a trap of the whales, it'll not a bubble if you don't fall into this trap :). Just need to wait and everything will be fine after the whales get what they need and Bitcoin price will be more than 19k$ again :).

If it's a buble i just hope i can sold it in time to not lose money, but i think once we will need 1 currency for all world, so why not btc

Falling from 19,000 to 12,000 doesn't suggest to me the bubble has popped, especially if it recovers somewhat right after. This looks like a correction with a dead cat bounce. I don't know if there is a technical definition of a bubble popping, but to me I would say that a bubble popping would need to be at least a 75% drop in price, with a long term establishment of the price at the new drastically lower level. After the correction, the bubble looks less inflated, but by no means does it appear to be popped.

Shouldn't the first 4 bubbles be included in just a single one? Technically because the deflation of the bubble =/ popping of the bubble, and we've witnessed that it inflated again (if it is indeed one) in 2017. Tbh speculative bubbles are everywhere even in heavily regulated commodities/stocks so I don't know why the hate and prejudice on bitcoin. People see value in it and people agree that a single bitcoin costs X, so why all these nonsense?


And shouldn't the be a description of a bubble? ::) You can't possibly rule that out since the way bitcoin rises and falls resembles that of the known bubbles. After all we're just mere speculators in the crypto world, aren't we?

The first part of your statement is classic bubble mentality. As for why not btc for 1 world currency, the simple answer is because bitcoin doesn't have the capacity to handle the very small fraction of transactions it currently has, let alone being scaled up to handle transactions on a worldwide level. Transaction fees make bitcoin a terrible way to transmit value, and the volatility makes it a terrible store of value. These two things make it essentially worthless, but speculation and irrationality explains the price we have. That's not something I would feel confident about investing in, let alone long term.

I think BTC still has a long way to go. so there will be more bubbles to come

At present, bitcoin is very stable and has little fluctuation in the past week. I think if you have tracked and are interested in the cypto market and especially bitcoin then you will no longer see bitcoin as the financial bubble. Because there can not be any form of financial bubble that can survive, grow strong and above all be supported by the community as much as bitcoin can last for nearly 10 years.

   Lol. Clearly, the things you said and the proofs you showed doesn't proove anything. It isn't something that can be accepted by us to make us see Bitcoin as a bubble. Because you see, giving this reasons and proofs are vained efforts when bitcoin always goes back and breaks record by record everytime. A better word to use if you only made a mistake is correction.

Just sayin'..

What about the numbers for the stock market before the great depression? How was the bubble measured?

The range in the past has been between roughly 17,100 and 13,500. That's a range of 21 to 26% in only 7 days depending if you're measuring off the high or low. That's incredibly volatile by standard measures. In no sense should Bitcoin be considered "very stable." Bitcoin is still measured against real world metrics, you don't just throw those out because in comparison Bitcoin isn't as crazy as it was a little bit ago. This bubble has warped everyone's perception of what is normal and what is "stable."