Bitcoin Forum

I would just like to point out to all the doom and gloomers, that everything looks just fine on the log charts (which you should be using)

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/3545/charthe.jpg

what is this?

This is the price of bitcoins over the last 12 months on a logarithmic scale.

Looking at this, I would wait a couple of months before buying again at ~ 5 bucks. 

Doesn't look that "fine".  It's a deflationary currency so we should expect an upward trend and its clearly flatlined (slightly down even) for a while now.  Could argue Feb-Apr was similar, but I think we're seeing a downward trend right now.

Yes, I admit a downward trend. It just isn't "the end of bitcoin" like some people are griping about.

If it goes to 0.05, I'll buy like 1/10 of all the Bitcoins. :D

edit:

More like 2 or 3%.

If it ever gets to 0.05...no one thinks they're worth a nickle to have. You'll have a bunch of bitcoins that nobody wants anymore.

oh I had to educate myself about logarithmic charts. (Used in earthquakes and solar flares or any thing that uses a large number variances.) like our horribly unstable bitcoins.
I still don't understand how to read this chart though. how is this different from some thing like a Moving average? only a 9th grade education sorry  :P

I'd take the gamble with a hundred bucks.
If you win, you practically got 2,000 bitcoins free and their value is $20-$50 years down the road. If you lose, you're out the price of 2 video games, a few bar nights, or what-have-you.

Since they always have *some* function as an instrument of value, I'd hold on to them. Doesn't matter if it's temporarily $15, $3, $0.01 or $250.

The idea is that a jump from 5 to 10 should be seen the same as a jump from 10 to 20.  In both cases you double your money.  What's important is the % change not the absolute value in change.  Logs show percentage changes.

o i fucking get thank you

Hey 'economist' it's only deflationary in the long term.  Right now it's highly inflationary.  The supply of bitcoins is increasing as miners discover new blocks and the only reason it is holding its value at all is the expansion of the bitcoin economy. 

Wrong.  It's not even holding its value as you say.  It's declining.

There's always a slight dip right before the jump.

Back up to $30?

I think so.

http://www.tradejuice.com/images-tfb/cup-n-handle.gif

I think there's a decent possibility of this happening.

Hey now, the human brain can rebound from many things. Don't sell yourself short.

is that a cup and handle? Still learning my chart lingo.. very interesting

Indeed, it is. I learned about this type of graph somewhat recently from one of BitcoinChannel's videos.

I personally prefer the -1 chart
http://lw2.leowandersleb.de/chart.png

all you need to do is flip the colors Can some one do this :D

if it makes you happy ... but somehow I prefer the more subtle jokes (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=23935.msg300404#msg300404).

 :D :D

Funny. you could have color swapped the candles for greater effect ;)

I prefer the snail chart

Not really accurate, now is it? Bitcoin is deflationary in the long run, but at the moment there are thousands of new bitcoins mined every day... The current period in the bitcoin cycle is remarkably INFLATIONARY, and yet the currency manages to somewhat hold its value... Not bad, eh?

Not really.  The dollar is inflationary, but you don't see it declining over 10% in a single day.  All that stuff is already priced into the market.

Get ready for a big jump in August if the U.S. Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling in time to avoid a default...

I'm sure that has nothing to do with 50,000 people vying for 50 btc every 10 minutes vs. 5 people vying for 50 btc every 10 minutes.

No one is dumping their USD into effing bitcoins.  They would use gold.  Bitcoins are essentially worthless as a currency right now and the entire "economy" could collapse tomorrow for any number of reasons.  I know everyone on this board thinks that bitcoins are going to be the new universal currency and that every business will accept them and they will be worth thousands of dollars each, etc, etc, etc, but you have to realize that everyone on this board that says things like that is insane.

Gold is kind of worthless as a currency too. Don't know many people who would accept it for goods, and even if they did, how would I get it to them? Mail it?

Investing in gold assumes someone will be willing to buy it off of you for a fair price with currency you can use. At the moment, bitcoins are the same. But in the future, it might be possible to trade bitcoins directly for a variety of goods. It is easy and convenient. I don't think it will ever be that way for gold.

And PS, I'm dumping a good bit of my USD into bitcoin. So somebody is.

And this is why the current decline in BTC value is going to reach some limit.

Thats because gold isn't a currency.  Gold is a commodity.  You don't pay for things with gold.  You store your wealth in gold because their isn't a civilization on this planet that wouldn't give you their currency in exchange for gold. 

Then think of bitcoins as a commodity, with the potential to one day become a currency. If you are willing to put your money in a commodity, bitcoins seems a reasonable alternative to put some speculation money in. There is no particular reason to categorize bitcoin as "only" a currency. In many ways it has many traits of a commodity. Namely, a finite amount and a supply/demand dynamic.

yes really.  you call yourself an economist but you have no idea what inflation is.  no idea at all.

I hope everyone realizes this debate will never end. And at some point in the future the community will agree to have even more than 8 decimal places. When BTC is extremely valuable even 1 satoshi will be divided to 8 decimal places.

Regarding intrinsic value... it's in the network and software.

This is the dream that many bears, myself included, hope for. But you have to ask yourself, how likely do you think that scenario is?

When I think about the many things that can go wrong, and the fact that maybe not many people will think this idea is as cool as I do, and I pull out my inner pessimist and make him answer the question, I still feel like there is a 1% chance of bitcoins becoming really, really big. Now the real me, thinks there is closer to a 60% chance. But either way, it is still worth an investment.

There are three kinds of debates that never ends:

1) Two (or more) knowledgeable people who share two (or more) valid points but in different ideological/theoretical positions.
Although they prefer their own vision, both usually recognize, acknowledge and understand the intellectual capacity and position of their opponent.
The debate is easily identifiable by the proper usage of terminology, sophisticated vocabulary and the higher level of debate.

2) One knowledgeable guy (who really know his stuff) Vs. one ignorant/stubborn/pedantic (who thinks he knows it all, although he barely could pass "TheTopic" 101).
The ignorant one usually thinks he is way ahead of the knowledgeable guy (or that he can even "beat" him through rhetoric and "logic"), and because he remembers better the textbook definitions of the terms. Expect a lot of both formal and informal fallacies from the ignorant person.

3) Two fools arguing each other, when both think they understand a subject after skimming through a dictionary and wikipedia.
Both idiots think that the other guy doesn't know anything. Usually they just repeat or recycle what they've read or heard, and make opinions without any grounds. More like a cockfight of egos, rather than a real intellectual debate. Expect a lot of misspellings and incongruity.

The funny thing is that in all cases the ignorant one is always oblivious of his pathetic ignorance.

And 95% of the debates on the internet are 3, 4% are 2, and 1% is 1. Give or take.

(shhh shhhh,  dont interrupt the fantasy!  Their all going to be BTC zillikonares! - now back to the circle jerk)
Go BTC! It will be at 30+ tommorrow!

speaking of pathetic. dont you have some nobel prize papers to write?

It depends what you think really big is. Do I think the US government is going to dump the dollar for Bitcoins? No. Do I think it will be accepted at hookah lounges and hip coffee shops? Likely. It depends how well the younger generation realizes it's potential. A rebellious teenager used to egg houses on Halloween. Now they bring down government websites. There's only a certain subset of the population who will ever find Bitcoin appealing, and that group is growing every day. For those involved in the internet "underground", you know that it is booming. A chart can't tell you that. The truth is somewhere in the middle of the doom and gloom crowd and those dreaming that they'll be buying city blocks with their Bitcoins.

Also, put on your armchair psychologist hat for a second. When people hear about things once, they kind of put it in the back of their mind and it sits latent. Think Facebook and Twitter. When they hear about it a second time, they make a connection and sense a pattern. That's when they say, "Hmm.. maybe I should try this." For most people, the incident a few weeks ago was the first time they heard about it. Next time, we should see wider adoption. (For the record, I heard about Bitcoin once about a year ago. Then I heard it again on CNN a few weeks ago. I'm kicking myself.. My watercooled 5850 and Phenom x6 were just collecting dust.)

A great local business model for a college town or something right now would be start accepting Bitcoins. You'd get free word of mouth advertising, grassroots support, and people are eager to spend them. The market will figure it out soon.

Can't buy anything with gold?

Way back in the day I took $10,000 worth of Krugerands as a down payment on a $25,000 CAD system. both myself and the buyer were very happy with the deal and some 25+ years later we are still friends. That deal was done the day we met.

Exhibit number 1: the archetypal ignorant troll makes his appearance. Be aware of these creatures.
Thank you NO_SLAVE for your cooperation, now you can go back to your cage.

PS: I was right and that must be burning you inside.
I have many special tricks prepared for trolls like you.

And here, Ladies and gentlemen, is a fine example of #3. Take note of the use of ad hominem attacks on both sides of the argument.

To those who think bitcoins are going to be worth a LOT more in the future and that business will accept them, I have to ask why?  Why would businesses accept bitcoins and all of the extra hassle that goes with them?  They aren't more convenient for the consumer, in fact they are much less convenient.  The only real positive is anonymity, and you aren't anonymous when you are face to face with a store clerk.  Why do you think the value of a bitcoin is going to skyrocket?  There are people with tens of thousands of bitcoins, if not hundreds of thousands, who will keep the price down for year and years to come selling them off.  There may be at least a couple people who have a gigantic amount of bitcoins who wait until the price does rise some, and then attempt to cash out to maximize their profit, and they will crash the market.  Why do you think that a currency/commodity that has such an overwhelming majority controlled by such a small minority will be skyrocketing in value?

Luckily, I just posted a long piece about just that. Have a look:

Bitcoin _is_ more convenient
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=26103.0

lol, too easy.  a pseudo-academic twit and a bunch of fantasy zillionares late to the party.  :D.

haha, actually it doesn't qualify... we are not discussing about the subject.
He is just trolling, and I gracefully accept the challenge of the lesser being ;)

PS: Btw, this is the last post related to NO_SLAVE, I don't want this thread to go off-topic.

Im just trolling you, because you are a pseudo academic twit, and pseudo academic twits like yourself will be the first dragged into the street when things "get rolling".
and before you look down upon this poor uneducated "troll", know that I have enough "paper" on my wall to roll you in it and smoke you.  The academy is a scam and and youre its joke.

Because trading your goods and services is the easiest way to acquire bitcoins.