Bitcoin Forum

1) My opinion about the BTC market is sometimes accurate, but certainly not always.
2) Disclaimer: I do not have enough money to invest, or BTC, to be trying to scare you into more panic selling.

(Do you know?)
Major market moves tend to happen when people are caught by surprise.
Last week the general mood was very bullish around here. We survived the Gox meltdown and prices quickly rallied after the bounce at low $14. Also, the standing orders to buy were huge, almost 40,000 against ~24,000 to sell.

Question #1:
Who has the ability to place a large amount of standing orders to buy?
Answer:
Only people with (relatively) huge amounts of cash in their Gox account, are able to place a large amount of standing orders to buy.


Question #2:
If you want to plan and start a truly Epic Round of Panic Selling, what type of weekend is perfect, and why?
Answer:
A mid-summer holiday weekend is a rare time when people who are "always online" might be driving, camping, spending time with family, etc. After getting away from it all for 7 hours (for example) they take a quick peak online only to find their Bitcoin holdings are down over 15% in a day, and perhaps heading much lower if you look at the charts. So they login and sell ASAP, hoping to buy back at the low, if their weekend isn't ruined trying to watch the market.


This is all excess speculation, but I smell a set-up created by "ruthless rich people"*
* Bitcoins "Market Cap" (total value) is ~$93,339,355 USD (over 93 Million), and recently was well over $100 Million, so "we" are worth the effort if an individual or group wishes to "mess with the market."


Note: I'm not blaming "The Bitcoin Elite"
Ruthless rich people could be your friendly local neighbor, for example.
Individuals are not obligated to "play nice" or care about the well-being of this great community.

ps. I could be wrong, but we are now setup the re-test the June low of $10.25, or even lower....
When the Hot Deadly Lava from MtGox is Inches from Your Feet how Will YOU React? (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=19880.msg248102#msg248102)


Question #3: Does your instinct/intuition tell you this was possibly planned and executed to evolve shortly after MtGox re-opened, and also just happened to be on a holiday weekend?
What do you think?

I have the same suspicion as I recall seeing something similar occurred around Memorial Day weekend before the $30 run up.

I don't really know if it was planned, but I'm loving it.   ;D

Did anyone just see the massive bear trap?
They added a HUGE buy order under $12 (to show support), and also removed the large barrier (sell orders) at $14.
The gates were wide open for a fun rally to at least ~$14.50, but I think it will prove to be a set-up for panic.

 

The rally to 12$ happens becuase people ARE actually taking $$$ out of the market! Its simple. On the other hand there are some investors waiting to get in at around 10$!

I just think this was a gradual decline from the whole MTGOX HACK.  It just took some time for people to actually get there accounts straight, withdrawl there money, take out there bitcoins, plus you have the fourth of july weekend and we have a lower volume going on at MTGOX which is not helping.  The economy is responding to bitcoins, I see more people accepting bitcoins, but now the worth is dropping which is not good. They need to stay in the 30 dollar range for awhile and stay stable.

No. The ideal time for panic selling would be the hours after Gox opened. The week of stability points to someone trying to achieve the opposite of what you suggest.

The week of stability could have been orchestrated too.  Sell off slowly at 17 while keeping huge orders close to that point, then once enough is sold, dump the rest at regular intervals to bring the price down.

Or it could just be the market.

I think the time for panic selling was right after MTGOX opened up, but too many people were having problems getting there funds, getting there accounts back etc, so I think it trickled down, then hit hard when everyone was functional again like right now, so here we have the panic drop.  And now were scaring away the people that just started getting into this which is not going to help bitcoin at all either.

The week of stability is what caused the sell-off. Bitcoin's value is derived, more or less, from how interested people are in Bitcoin. If the price is sitting steady for a week, and nothing much is happening, nobody is going to be looking at or thinking about or publishing mainstream news stories on Bitcoin. So the price drops.

well, if it were for people having to wait for mtgox to give them back their account - I still have not heard anything from them regarding my claim.

I too believe that the recent fall down to $11 yesterday was some market manipulation, and I made some good profits from it.

Man, I wish I could see waves like these and ride them properly. I could've made a 130% increase in my money if I would've dared to convert it back to btc.