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Title: As Predicted Post by: Shinobi on July 05, 2011, 05:59:22 PM I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:
Thoughts? Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: angelo95 on July 05, 2011, 06:03:31 PM I think you are just making up numbers. What is the $10 plateau based on? The $3 and $4 lows?
Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: NO_SLAVE on July 05, 2011, 06:04:11 PM I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:
Thoughts? will not stick at $10, thats not how it works, sorry. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Shinobi on July 05, 2011, 06:07:28 PM I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little.
Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: angelo95 on July 05, 2011, 06:09:51 PM I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little. This is my point. I don't listen to people picking numbers "out of their asses". Learn some serious stuff like economics and maths and come back teach us. I might be interested this time. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Shinobi on July 05, 2011, 06:13:15 PM Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time.
I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little. This is my point. I don't listen to people picking numbers "out of their asses". Learn some serious stuff like economics and maths and come back teach us. I might be interested this time. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Mousepotato on July 05, 2011, 06:17:03 PM I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little. I hope you're right. I doubt it though :(Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: bitclown on July 05, 2011, 06:17:22 PM Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time. Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: BitcoinPorn on July 05, 2011, 06:21:08 PM I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little. I like your honesty behind your rational. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Shinobi on July 05, 2011, 06:22:18 PM They did, as virtually valueless and among a fringe community. When I said "abandoned" I should have said "abandoned by all, but a few anti-establishment types and tech-enthusiasts".
Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time. Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: aral on July 05, 2011, 06:28:08 PM You should stick it back in your ass where it belongs.
Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: tymothy on July 05, 2011, 06:29:25 PM I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:
Thoughts? The price of bitcoins: [ ] Have gone up significantly [ X] Have gone down significantly [ ] Have not fluctuated significantly And I believe the price: [X ] will continue this behavior [ ] will not continue this behavior And therefore one should: [ ] BUY BUY BUY BUY!!! [X ] SELL SELL SELL!!! [ ] HOLD HOLD HOLD!!! [ ] DO THE HOOOOKEY POKEY!!! I base this opinion on: [ ] mathemagic [ ] statistics [ ] correlations between price and a thing which may or may not be causally related to price [ ] graphs [X ] extrapolations [X ] current events [X ] historical events [ ] the fact that a pattern like this has occurred before and therefore will occur again [ ] insider knowledge that a large trade is about to take place [X ] the fact that I have seen and predicted things correctly before [ ] Oracle at Delphi [X ] Magic 8 Ball Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: fitty on July 05, 2011, 06:30:04 PM I and several others predicted that this was going to happen:
Thoughts? There's always a zillion factors going on. Right now there's more sellers then buyers. A lot of miners are selling coins as fast as they get them to help recover their hardware investments. Some are getting out of mining. The last difficulty adjustment pushed a lot of people out of the mining business. Not because it's no longer profitable, but because people don't like seeing their income drop 40% overnight so they're getting out while they can still sell the hardware at great prices. But people will always mine. I know people who 10+ folding rigs and not only run them for free, they lose money on the electricity costs. Even if Bitcoins were $3 people would still runt their mining rigs. Difficulty adjusts, people adapt, Bitcoin keeps going. The majority of people who buy and spend Bitcoins are for drugs. No one is going through the trouble of loading up money on some iffy exchange, buy bitcoins then go buy something they could have purchased with a debit/creditcard. The only reason you'd use Bitcoins instead of debit/credit is because it's harder to track (legal stuff like a bong you might want to hide) or it's illegal. Thankfully for Bitcoin the illicit drug market is huge. Global video game market is around 50 billion. Illicit drugs is easily over 500 billion. The fact is very few people are buying AND using Bitcoins beyond illicit drugs. If I want to buy a used video card there's no way I'm going to send money to MtGox, buy bitcoins, then go pay for my video card. Almost everyone who accepts Bitcoins also accepts standard forums of payment. If they don't they're living in god knows where (i.e. not usa) and I'm not buying from them anyway. So the bad news is there's lots of people trying to use Bitcoin to make quick money, using it as an investment, which relies on OTHER people to want/spend Bitcoins. The good news is the amount of people who do buy and spend Bitcoins should slowly keep going up, those people aren't going away, so there's a lot of strength/security on the bottom. Bitcoins will more and more become an easier/better way to buy drugs (not as much locally, but it's huge internationally where your dealer might live 4000 miles away). Long term Bitcoin has a lot of strenght/upside but people trying to use it as an investment or get rich quick are going to be sorely disappointed. So people are always going to mine, people are always going to need Bitcoins for drugs, that's not changing. The problem right now is a lot of people were trying to make quick money off Bitcons and there simply isn't enough buyers to support it. The situation long term looks very strong to me but short term it's going to be a lot of growing pains. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: angelo95 on July 05, 2011, 06:32:01 PM When I talk about finance, I prefer to base my decisions on numbers. If numbers are meaningless for you, this is a genuine way of investing. All the best with it. Beside that I absolutely don't care if it goes down or up, and I have no idea what will happen. All I want is the market to fluctuate, in order to let me speculate on it.
Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time. I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. I actually think it will sink under a dollar, but wanted to hedge at little. This is my point. I don't listen to people picking numbers "out of their asses". Learn some serious stuff like economics and maths and come back teach us. I might be interested this time. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: SlipperySlope on July 05, 2011, 06:33:38 PM At what price point would you be a buyer of bitcoins?
Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: JohnDoe on July 05, 2011, 06:35:39 PM The price of bitcoins: [ ] Have gone up significantly [ X] Have gone down significantly [ ] Have not fluctuated significantly And I believe the price: [X ] will continue this behavior [ ] will not continue this behavior And therefore one should: [ ] BUY BUY BUY BUY!!! [X ] SELL SELL SELL!!! [ ] HOLD HOLD HOLD!!! [ ] DO THE HOOOOKEY POKEY!!! I base this opinion on: [ ] mathemagic [ ] statistics [ ] correlations between price and a thing which may or may not be causally related to price [ ] graphs [X ] extrapolations [X ] current events [X ] historical events [ ] the fact that a pattern like this has occurred before and therefore will occur again [ ] insider knowledge that a large trade is about to take place [X ] the fact that I have seen and predicted things correctly before [ ] Oracle at Delphi [X ] Magic 8 Ball This should be a sticky. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: foggyb on July 05, 2011, 06:45:17 PM Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time. Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...This is a great point. MANY people will not sell their coins, EVER. Why should they sell at 5$ or 1$? Bitcoin has come a long way, has seen more windsocks come and go than you or I can ever imagine. Bitcoin don't give a shit. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. Many miners aren't going anywhere either. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Brutus on July 05, 2011, 06:55:45 PM Bitcoin don't give a shit. Bitcoin is the Honey Badger of digital currencies.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4r7wHMg5Yjg Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Oldminer on July 05, 2011, 06:56:59 PM I just chose $10 as it is a psychologically attractive number. I picked $3 and $4 out of my ass. Love the technical explanation ;D Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: HideousBeastManGuy on July 05, 2011, 07:00:38 PM I've studied/traded via Technical Analysis for a while and he's probably more right than wrong.
$14.10 was an important level for as it was the price bitcoin dropped to after MtGox re-opened and the "sky was falling". Price tested that level last night and wasn't able to get past it (I think it was at 14.3 for a few minutes, but was quickly beaten back). The next guesses will just be guesses, with every drop in price, miners and early speculators are going to get more and more uncomfortable, and more willing to sell. I watch bitcoin price all day and I have yet to see buy volume anywhere near sell volume for the past 4 days of watching the DOMs closely. Panic is winning at the moment and there's no sign of it stopping. I think $10 will be a good measure, and I think there are probably around $3-$5 per btc worth of people who will never abandon the idea, although that's obviously highly subjective. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: SgtSpike on July 05, 2011, 07:03:13 PM I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC. I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous. $330 is $330.
Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: BitcoinPorn on July 05, 2011, 07:14:58 PM I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC. I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous. $330 is $330. So today is the day Bitcoin ends? lol, be patient, it is a bumpy ride :) Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: the founder on July 05, 2011, 07:17:17 PM I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC. I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous. $330 is $330. I'll buy them... Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Shinobi on July 05, 2011, 07:28:36 PM They may not be going anywhere, but who cares if they last till the end of eternity if they are worth next to nothing? I think Bitcoins will be around as long as a few nodes are running, that I agree. But its a pointless exercise if it isn't worth much. Mine all you want. It won't be much different than looking for pretty pebbles on your lawn. Scarcity doesn't force value.
Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time. Bitcoins existed for years despite being worthless to you...This is a great point. MANY people will not sell their coins, EVER. Why should they sell at 5$ or 1$? Bitcoin has come a long way, has seen more windsocks come and go than you or I can ever imagine. Bitcoin don't give a shit. Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. Many miners aren't going anywhere either. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Shinobi on July 05, 2011, 07:33:31 PM Thank you for at least some level of vindication. You articulated my sentiment better than I was able to.
I think a lot of the resistance to the idea comes from the libertarians among us for who Bitcoin was an ideological triumph. To them, the failure of Bitcoin is more than just a lost investment - its a powerful blow to their belief system. I've studied/traded via Technical Analysis for a while and he's probably more right than wrong. $14.10 was an important level for as it was the price bitcoin dropped to after MtGox re-opened and the "sky was falling". Price tested that level last night and wasn't able to get past it (I think it was at 14.3 for a few minutes, but was quickly beaten back). The next guesses will just be guesses, with every drop in price, miners and early speculators are going to get more and more uncomfortable, and more willing to sell. I watch bitcoin price all day and I have yet to see buy volume anywhere near sell volume for the past 4 days of watching the DOMs closely. Panic is winning at the moment and there's no sign of it stopping. I think $10 will be a good measure, and I think there are probably around $3-$5 per btc worth of people who will never abandon the idea, although that's obviously highly subjective. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: evoorhees on July 05, 2011, 07:45:09 PM
Wow I get to be included with those fine gentlemen? Shinobi, you honor me! I care little if the market price falls down to almost nothing. I know what these things are worth. I would not be suprised if the price falls to $.10, then rises to $100 only to fall back again. Bitcoin is unprecedented, and it may take a while for people to understand what they really represent. I am not so shortsighted as to be concerned with weekly, or even monthly, price fluctuations. Anyone who is concerned SHOULD NOT be involved in this at this stage. The daily price is fun to watch, maybe fun to trade sometimes, but is quite detached from those of us building things behind the scenes. And if I lose thousands of dollars? No biggie... I've spent much more on beer. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: foggyb on July 05, 2011, 07:50:52 PM They may not be going anywhere, but who cares if they last till the end of eternity if they are worth next to nothing? That can make bitcoin every currency trader's playground, and foundations of new upstarts. No currency has ever lasted more than a couple hundred years. How do you make bitcoin die? Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: foggyb on July 05, 2011, 07:54:00 PM To them, the failure of Bitcoin is more than just a lost investment - its a powerful blow to their belief system. A little premature, aren't we? Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Joise on July 05, 2011, 07:55:42 PM I and several others predicted that this was going to happen: The fact is very few people are buying AND using Bitcoins beyond illicit drugs. If I want to buy a used video card there's no way I'm going to send money to MtGox, buy bitcoins, then go pay for my video card. Almost everyone who accepts Bitcoins also accepts standard forums of payment. If they don't they're living in god knows where (i.e. not usa) and I'm not buying from them anyway. Um, thanks for the nice provocation to non-us merchants. I'm not sure whether you might have looked at these google maps with the distribution of bitcoin clients worldwide. I mean that one, it was computed ba MagicalTux: http://maps.google.com/maps?q=http://c1958612.r12.cf0.rackcdn.com/bitcoin.kml There are three main areas: The US, Western and Northern Europe and the Pacific rim: Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, China. If you look closer, you see something quite interesting: The mayority of bitcoin clients is close to the shores. In the US, east coast and west coast, not as much in between. In Europe, you see concentrations in Scandinavia and places like Hamburg. In the far east, you see a few at the coasts of the Pacific ocean. My explanation is that: These are places which have very strong cultural links to trade, especially international trade. Harbor places are still today culturally very different from places like South Dakota. I can be wrong but it seems to me that Bitcoin at the time has most interest in places where first, access to internet and knowledge about relavant technologies is high and second where maritime trade has a long tradition. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: kwukduck on July 05, 2011, 08:12:55 PM I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC. I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous. $330 is $330. Today $330 is $330, tomorrow the same $330 is $329, in a year... Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: FlipPro on July 05, 2011, 08:27:54 PM At this point the only reason I would want to sell, is so I can have cash to buy MORE BITCOINS if they ever were to drop to single digits lol.. That is MY personal goal, to BUY MORE BITCOIN, and sit on them for 10 years if I have to.
No matter how stupid people are, Bitcoins aren't... Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: chickenado on July 05, 2011, 08:34:50 PM Thoughts? Predictions that don't cost you anything are pretty much worthless. It's always easy in retrospect to brag about your predictions that materialized and stay quiet about the ones that didn't materialize. I dare you to make a public bet of $1000 that bitcoin will drop below $3 by the end of August (I'm sure you'll find many takers here). Then I will take your prediction seriously. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: SgtSpike on July 05, 2011, 08:53:24 PM I have to say, I am getting a bit fearful at the moment, despite only having 30 BTC. I should probably hold on to it, but am thinking about selling... just makes me nervous. $330 is $330. Today $330 is $330, tomorrow the same $330 is $329, in a year... I have significant opportunity costs for any wealth kept in bitcoins, as I could be using it to pay down some high-interest debt. That's my largest concern. On the upside, bitcoins are back up to $13.80 from $11.09, or whatever the low point was. Here's to hoping for a fresh rally. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Elokane on July 05, 2011, 08:58:57 PM The price of bitcoins: [ ] Have gone up significantly [ X] Have gone down significantly [ ] Have not fluctuated significantly And I believe the price: [X ] will continue this behavior [ ] will not continue this behavior And therefore one should: [ ] BUY BUY BUY BUY!!! [X ] SELL SELL SELL!!! [ ] HOLD HOLD HOLD!!! [ ] DO THE HOOOOKEY POKEY!!! I base this opinion on: [ ] mathemagic [ ] statistics [ ] correlations between price and a thing which may or may not be causally related to price [ ] graphs [X ] extrapolations [X ] current events [X ] historical events [ ] the fact that a pattern like this has occurred before and therefore will occur again [ ] insider knowledge that a large trade is about to take place [X ] the fact that I have seen and predicted things correctly before [ ] Oracle at Delphi [X ] Magic 8 Ball Apologies for the low content post, but: ROFL. Donation sent. :D Edit: seems like your address is truncated in your sig. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: sunnankar on November 21, 2012, 01:54:23 AM Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time. How is that working out for you Shinobi? Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Fjordbit on November 21, 2012, 05:32:01 AM Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: cunicula on November 21, 2012, 05:37:43 AM Clearly you miss the point. The numbers are meaningless to my post. The point is that Bitcoin is going to be of little value and abandoned in a few months' time. How is that working out for you Shinobi? It seems to working out pretty well for him if he sold at $17 and potentially bought at $3-$4 where he predicted price would stabilize. Are you trying to imply the opposite? Seems like a reading comprehension fail on your part. Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Phinnaeus Gage on November 21, 2012, 06:33:46 AM For a minute there, I thought I was 50% richer, then I saw the date. Note to self: Don't read while under the influence of 5 year old pills.
~Gilbert~ Title: Re: As Predicted Post by: Frequency on November 21, 2012, 08:15:19 PM Thoughts? Predictions that don't cost you anything are pretty much worthless. It's always easy in retrospect to brag about your predictions that materialized and stay quiet about the ones that didn't materialize. I dare you to make a public bet of $1000 that bitcoin will drop below $3 by the end of August (I'm sure you'll find many takers here). Then I will take your prediction seriously. bump uuurr you lost a 1k |