Bitcoin Forum

Today we will have low trading volume, it will be back and forth. Saturday a big sell off is coming, not sure where it will end up. The market will recover into a small up-trend Sunday and Monday but we might be looking at another long-climb back to where we are now. It could take weeks.

Today we will have low trading volume, it will be back and forth. Saturday a big whale buy is coming, not sure where it will end up. The market will level off into a small down-trend Sunday and Monday but we might be looking at another long-descent back to where we are now. It could take weeks.

I love this specuating business...

So... today is much like yesterday?

Unless you're the whale, you don't know they will buy tomorrow. What is your basis on this? Not bearish, just curious.

and tomorrow will be like today

Can't wait to sell into that queue. Great idea OP!

/s

It is quite possible he could be the dumbest whale in existence (by disclosing his intentions)

A couple million or more is finally being refunded right now to people that had money in Bitfloor. (Some refunds have already been accounted for) Obviously these same people have an interest in Bitcoin.  I speculate that some of the refunds will be put back into Bitcoin, or orders will be placed for Bitcoin.  Of course I am not sure what trading platform they will use but regardless this might help keep prices stable or even move up a bit this weekend.

My speculation is based on DXY and Gold spot price H1 and H4 and a bit of intuition. I've been remarkably successful at predicting the market for the last few weeks using this method and all signs point to a sell off on Saturday. If there is a whale going to buy they are going to lose a lot of money. I'm thinking that the whales are actually investment firms or people with investment experience and they should know this as much as I do that right now is not a good time to buy.

I think it's fair to assume that if you're buying you're not going to buy on Gox, when you can buy much lower on the other exchanges.  I would expect most of this fiat to show up on Bitstamp, BTC-e and CampBX.  My guess anyway.

~ $92.50 then we run for $104

The whale buyer may be golfing tomorrow, or have two blondes in bed tonight and forget about the next buy, I'm not sure he'll buy tomorrow, but I'll be ready if he does.

My understanding is that most of the whales have moved to KrillCoin.  :-X

Sorry, don't believe it.

I think it can only go higher from here.

Yes, yes down my precious. It's beginning we are already at $93 we will see how much damage today will do. I would be looking for a bottom tomorrow as the recovery should start tomorrow and continue into next week.

You were correct about the drop, but for now it hasn't gained momentum. Market sell orders aren't following this drop,
so if the droppers want to persuade the market to drop down where they can buy back and make a profit, they'll
have to make another dump below 91.6, and I don't see this happening (well, not yet, as I write this). To compensate
for the lack of strength of this drop, the dumpers may resort to spreading rumors, to make this drop a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I highly suspect that today we will play the one step forward two steps back game, it's going to be a gradual decent back to the low 90s if it touches 91 there will be another sell off from people trying to cut a profit and wait for the 80s to buy back in as this rally really started around 89.

I'm surprised at how little actual informed speculation goes on in this forum. These are solid market principles not me just saying stuff based on my emotions.

The day has just begun on the east coast and once people wake up in America you'll see the real action begin around noon EST.

I did a little math, and here's what I found out:
The dumpers sold at an average of 94.5 - 95, about 4,000 - 5,000 BTC, so if they want to break even they
have to buy 4,000 -5,000 BTC at 94 - 94.5 (difference due to fees). And currently they have no chance.
Unless the dumps continue down to 91.5, there won't be a large market movement downwards.

They are not doing this to profit few pennies but to profit few tens percentage. They do not need to buy back in one day, they can buy back in 1 month when price will be lower xy%.

If whales could withdraw money from mtgox, we would see the bottom sooner. It's about fear of losing money.

Either this trend reversal is a huge bull trap, or the dump was the lamest ever IMO.

averaging 2% fluctuation is - no news - back to being boring! nothing is going to happen. we are  past the "crashing" phase. now we all just sit and wait for news to be the leading cause of movement

Hopefully some more positive news and perhaps another crisis in some country. ;)  I guess boring is better then a huge sell off though.

So Grabble, which saturday were you talking about exactly?
You must feel pretty goddamn stupid right now i assume and in the future you will think twice about postings predictions as a fact, right?

Also since you were so sure about this big sell off i take it you sold all your Bitcoins yesterday to be ahead of the big drop?
Please confirm.

Dude this is the spec board, we're all entitled to our own guesses. Have you extended your reputation out and made any of your own?


So you have. i'll count your analysis of these fools :) I do see your point. Some people make dumb ass or blatantly manipulative "guesses" and I hate that shit.

and granted, I was about to make the same post calling Grabble out too  :D

In the mean time I thought of a possible explanation of this strange looking dump.
The sellers were careful not to cross the bid sum with the ask sum, so they don't trigger a panic sale yet.
But they dumped more than required to make a nice profit at the 96 wall, so maybe they were testing the market.
This means we can expect other such dumps the coming days, but only the last one will trigger a panic sale.
Don't ask me which will be the last one, I simply don't know. For this possible explanation, do I get a cookie?  ;D

you piqued my curiosity. do you have a number for the selling volume the past few days? which dumps are you referring to btw?

The dumps on the 27th July, early morning, about 5 hours 20 minutes (my local time) and then precisely 3 hours later.
For a total of 4,000 - 5,000 BTC, they made most of the volume yesterday.

So is $3 considered a huge drop nowadays?

Nothing wrong with speculating on a speculation forum. I just don't get why these people insist to present everything as a 100% fact. It's just a stupid thing to do. But they don't seem to care. The topic starter will most likely do it again by tomorrow.

I think bitcoin will drop to around the 50 dollar mark on the gox announcement

As long as there are enough people interested in buying up the coins being "dumped" it should not be a problem and will not affect the price that much.  Personally I think anyone dumping coins is crazy right now.  I think Bitcoin may plateau for a month or two but it is just a matter of time before we have another spike in price, and this time I believe it will be much more than the last spike.  As more and more people are interested in buying and using the demand will just naturally increase.

So far this guy is correct...

You must be in the wrong thread.

This new whale buy confirms that the dump on the 27th was a mistake.
They should have just waited and dumped into the buy wall at 99, like I did.
Unfortunately for me, when this buy started I had only $, courtesy of the dump,
so I had to buy at an average of 98, and made almost no profit.

Wait, tzupy, can you walk me through your thinking when you decided to buy at 98 after selling at 99?

I had my money in $ when this started because I believed there will be another dump today or early tomorrow morning,
so I had to buy at an average of 98 while the events were unfolding. My 2 hour session had expired, so I had to input password
and press Yubikey before buying. I later sold at 99 into the buy wall that disappeared seconds after.
This time it sucked to be a bear...

FUD

Where is any real information on this? Got a link?

Well the bears disappoint slightly, but the correction bottomed at $93 and then wave 1 of 3 of 3 off the $65 bottom is probably finished at $99.9.  Now we have a small corrective wave followed by 3 of 3 of 3.  Students of Elliot Wave know what that means.  ;)

ya weeeeeks to recover. er i mean it will be over 100 on sunday. bahaha. lame!!!!  i see it going to 105 by tomorrow morning. we usually see a buy late Sunday in the us. so morning in china and japan? thats about right....or maybe morning in Europe.

https://www.facebook.com/MtGox
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=85.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=263627.msg2819309#new
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=189977.0

Dear Valued comment maker,

Thank you for contacting me regarding your information request.

I've provided some links but due to a change in my artwork department I'm currently experiencing a back-log whilst trying to draw people a fucking picture to spell out the obvious.

I'm working hard to increase the speeds of my artwork, but there is approximately a two-week back-log I need to overcome which has now been going on for four months.

It will take a few weeks to get back to normal, and I thank you for your patience during this time.

Again, I apologize for the delay and will contact you once I've drawn you a fucking picture.

Please don't try and chase up this email when you start to realize you're never going to get the fucking picture, as I will copy and paste this same email by way of reply.

Best regards,

 pleeeease kraken, coinsetter, coinlab, et. al., fill the void before gox goes down!!

in related news, why did mtgox never follow through on their deal with coinlab?

There's a widespread rumor that they wanted to but Kapeles had to hand over the USD banking pages from his Filofax and unfortunately due to an incident regarding a coffee spill the pages became illegible hence the reason for reneging on the agreement and the recent delays on USD withdrawals.

@joe2012. Yes!!! www.blogspot.com/kapelescoffeeshockwithdrawalnightmare 

 :D

I sold all of my coins at $96.70 and bought back in around $94.

The drop wasn't as big as I had thought, I don't feel stupid though. I'm still working on magnitude but I've got direction down.

Also you'll see I pegged Sunday/Monday - I'm working on Tuesday and Wednesday right now. Thursday is not looking so good though, looks like another dip. Won't really know until later today when I can get my hands on more data. We could start seeing a dip as early as Wednesday.

Maybe I'm misreading, but how did you "peg" it? The market did not peak and rather than a sell off, the price of a bitcoin has gone up.

The market seems to be stabilizing. Anything above $ 100 is bullish. However I don't think we will see a true uptrend yet. Needs 3-4 more months I think.

ya.ya.yo!

Bears underperform again.  Wave 1 extended to finish at $102.85.  Corrective wave 2 of 3 of 3 is nearing completion and then we well have our 3/3/3 off the $65 bottom.

I'm a visual learner....

thank you  :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics

While MTgox has withdrawal problems the price is going to stay artificial high, and possibly bubble slightly as people use alternative means to cash out. (by buying bitcoins from Gox, pushing price higher and selling on other exchanges)

That happened before when gox reached 115 briefly a few weeks ago while other exchange were hovering below 100.  However, exchange rate at other exchanges are also rising this time around.

Yeah I think they stay slightly pegged to each other, most people seeing coins priced $15 higher on another exchange will take that as a clear buying signal.

notme do you have a chart of your wavecount that covers the beginning and end of the 2013 bubble?

i'm curious of what the bullish count of the rise of 2013 looks like.

Wave 1 ended ~ $32, wave 2 ended at ~ $2, wave 3 ended at ~ $266, Wave 4 ended at $65.  We are beginning wave 5.

effing fractal layers.

so, could your current counts for the I-II-III waves (in july) possibly be an ABC corrective trend of the bear 5-wave count changing trends into a new bull wave I? I  emphasize possibly, I do agree with your wave III count considering the market psychology

You lost me.  effing fractals indeed.

If you asking if there is a possible bearish count that could invalidate this count, I would answer that while it is possible, I have a hard time overlooking the strong 5 structure off the recent low around $65 that I have labelled Wave 1.  I suppose my "Wave 1" could be Wave A of an ABC correction, and we could be finishing C here.  But I don't see the overexuberance yet that I would expect at the finish of C.

There is also the guideline that waves 2 and 4 alternate between simple and complex.  In the big-picture count Wave 2 was certainly a complex correction, so Wave 4 should be relatively simple.

I meant something more like this:
http://ta.mql4.com/c/ta/2006/07/elliot_waves_2.gif

i think my question is, when you have an upwards ABC corrective trend of say a main bear trend, could that ABC be inside a trend-changing wave 1? or is ABC not even used at all if you're counting a bull wave?

edit: i think I figured it out. ABC are used simply to denote the corrective bounces of a continuing trend, and you start a new count for the opposite trend, right?

I don't think the ABC would apply unless the downtrend resumed, or if we had a complex correction.  Like I said above, Overall Wave 4 should be simple due to the complexity of Wave 2.  Looking at the action since $65, we have 1/A, 2/B, and are working on 3/C.  When this uptrend tops out we get to see if we will have a Wave 4 followed by a Wave 5, or resume the bear market.  Watch for a point of recognition in the middle of wave 3.  If volume doesn't pick up sharply, we might have a C and a we will be in a bull trap.  Or maybe the trap is already sprung and we will head down from here :P.

i think I figured it out my confusion. So ABC is used simply to denote the corrective bounces off a wave 5 before a continuing trend, and you start a new count for the opposite trend, right?

how come your subcounts don't have 4s and 5s?

That's good.  Knowing that in advance you should make a killing.  Congrats.

I have to agree with you. Bitcoins have been stable around $100 for a long time now. The next spike is going to be significant considering the current "normal" price. It hasn't fallen back down to $30 as some people feared probably because it has become too mainstream now.

I get this feeling that we are in for another bubble.

I bet he's really rich.

These people are delusional.
They just go on and on and simply ignore they are wrong 99% of the time.
There are a bunch of them in this part of the forum.

I've noticed you are especially bitter of late.

What's wrong?  :'(

You gota love speculative claims, each of us have them, where else better to shoot them off than on a forum, where you get all sorts of fishies that bite and lots of big whales who glide through with their mouths full...  ;D

there's always 4chan

3 of 3 of 3 has begun.... unless this is just a C wave in a giant bull trap :P.

time for bears to go into hibernation! see you next year

For once the title of this thread may be relevant, although I am referring to the very short term. After we cool off a bit, we should see a test of $115.

Finally, the bears got their selloff.  Possibly one more leg down.

time frame?

We should have the final 5th wave down of wave C of the correction within a couple hours... maybe sooner.  $100 should hold or the bull case gets tougher.

so there are 5 waves in wave c? too cool

If the bears can hold it here a bit longer we should have a decent move down fueled by the 2 hour goomboos to complete C of the correction.  Or we could just head up from here ;).

The market is slowly going down, the bid sum / ask sum is slowly going down, so unless a 'savior' buys some 3k BTC and reverses the trend,
we'll soon have a whale dump or panic sale, whichever comes first. The question is, will it stop at the 101 wall or not?

Bitcoin does what it wants. I just sold a few at 105.3 and she's up to 106.2.  I'll let you know when I buy back, thats' when the trend usually reverses :)

The market didn't get the memo yet, but we should be at 103 - 104, and instead we breached 107.

what does that even mean lol

I've just sold @107. Please buy back now  ;)

If it is still impossible to withdraw USD from Gox, the BTC/USD can only go up.

The sooner they get their shit together, the sonner we will have a clear market picture. Now the market is driven by people Leaving Mt Gox for good.

i'm surprised mtgox prices haven't gone up even more than it has

^ this wouldn't be surprised by a steep rise over the weekend.

Bear fail.

Bear fail, eh? Check the bid sum / ask sum again, then you may reconsider your opinion.
IMO we are going to have a major dump very soon, down to 101, maybe even back to double digits
if panic sale follows the dump. I moved my buy order from 101 to 96, just in case.

PS. I was wrong about the dump, the slide to 103 was slow and uneventful, followed by a trend reversal.

Irony: I cancelled my buy order at 101.01, because of the trend reversal I spotted, bought at 103.85, then went to sleep,
hoping that the market won't slump to 101 out of inertia. When I woke up, surprise, it did. The price right now, at 102, is
what I would expect from the bid sum / ask sum ratio. Yet we don't have a clear trend reversal, but if no one panic sells
the uptrend should resume soon. BTW, I'm ready to sell into that meager 7k BTC wall at 101 if I see others doing it a lot.

You are right, I jumped the gun.  The bears were just late to the party.

I have a feeling that tonight the buy wall at 101$ will get tested (the 103.15$ wall will be eaten).
Lets hope it holds, if not we'll have a panic sale tomorrow morning, instead of the usual small whale buy.

bring it on

I forgot about the low volume on weekends, so I was obviously wrong about the timing of the drop.
But the wall at 103.15 got chewed at, then got pulled. Makes me wonder if the wall at 101 won't be pulled if it gets chewed at.
That's why I cancelled my buy order at 101.0x, the market will definitely drop to 101 and if the wall gets pulled, IMO it's going to
trigger a panic sale. Then we might drop to 95-96. What do you think, will the 101 wall be pulled?

Yep, and it's all based on whales and walls.

I'm no whale, and in the past whales and walls made me lose money, now they help me make some money.
If I would only look at TA indicators, I would miss many opportunities. So for me whales and walls are important.

lol, exactly. If the market worked that way, the price would barely move..

if( ( chodpaba == WHALE ) && ( Tzupy != WHALE ) )
chodpaba_comment = NORMAL ;
else
chodpaba_comment = WEIRD ;

chodpaba is one of they few fellow traders who I expect to be pretty wealthy by now, but the way he posts now it seems it got to his head. (Sorry dude!)

dirty sheep fuckers!!!  ;D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qVQcwnuBfU

wtf is this

This thread has gone astray. Just FYI, I'm not gay, so the 'kiss' from chodpaba didn't go well with me, and neither am I a lamb  >:(.

Back to the original topic: for now there is no imminent sell off, on the contrary I expect a rally within the next hours, possibly in 2 stages.

some american culture at its finest

Looks like the start of a rally to me, we'll soon see if I was right. I was again wrong about the timing though.

PS. What looked like a start of a rally didn't go well at all. Bid sum dropped a lot, so I dumped at 106.1.

PS2. Someone called the possible bluff by dumping at 106.1.
Both the Bollinger width and detrended price oscillation look like we are going down.
I would really like to know how many of those buy walls will be withdrawn...

PS3. Strange movements that I couldn't understand. The bid sum dropped by almost 1 million $, making me to dump at 106.1.
Such a large drop in bids was usually associated with a significant (and delayed) drop in price. Money flow index went down too.
So after buying back, because the bid sum suddenly came back to almost normal, I ended with a 2% loss. Scratching my head...

Repeat :-)

huh. I'll ignore the weird homophobic remark by OP, and say this much: I'm not at all happy about volume. We're at a low point (USD volume) that we last saw in mid May, which was shortly before we peaked and then started the long slide downwards that lasted until early July. Bitstamp looks a bit better, but: except for one recent short-term trend (in the weekly range) where I believe bitstamp lead mtgox, most, if not all trends are still made on mtgox. So I'm not sure if bitstamp volume matters that much.

IMO the upward trend was broken on the 5th August, when no whale stepped in to get the price above 108. They probably knew it wasn't worth trying.
If the price would have gone above 108, we would have been now in the first sub-wave of the strongest Elliot wave, but instead we are in the first
sub-wave of the down trend. This is complicated by the fact that the waves don't have a flat base, since we still are on a slight upward trend (long term),
so the peak of the 5th August could have been confounded with the first sub-wave of the strongest wave, but market indicators don't concur with this.

I am surprised that the 105 wall wasn't pulled, and people are allowed to sell into it. The current correct market price is about 102 - 103,
so the correction that might soon happen is normal. Maybe those whales buying at 105 are just planning to sell several months later.
But the situation looks to me similar to the one at the end of May, so more drops (maybe not large, but still drops) can be expected,
unless someone puts about 2 million $ more in the bid sum.

PS. We have a little breakthrough! Is it too early to say 'Wheee'?

PS2. WHEEE!!!

Great call...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=939.611111164093&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2013-07-29&e=2013-08-28&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=B&a1=WMA&m1=200&a2=WMA&m2=50&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=1&ps=0&l=1&p=0&

Peak today.

possible

Until the next whale buy and bidwall.

The whale bought quite a lot today :D

We're either completing wave 4 and my count was accurate or we have completed an ABC corrective and will resume the downtrend sometime between here and $147ish.

https://www.tradingview.com/i/1WtxlzAv

It may take some time to pick a direction though.

IMO we are in the last stage of wave 5 and in about a week we are going to see A.

Don't you get tired of yourself? Don't you see that your predictions are totally worthless?
I asked you before: you must be extremely rich? The answer tells you how correct your predictions are. And i think we both know the answer already.

You look like silly a clown. Every single time.

I think we're due for a nice healthy drop to 110s-120s, but who knows, with this whale? I'm certainly not buying any more at these rates, anyway.  :)

Shroomskit, you have been on my ignore list for quite a while, but I happened to browse the forum without logging in.
Just keep me on your ignore list, and remember that that not all people have to be clueless like you.  ;)

Beginning of october soon.
Big moves incoming

Just keep fooling yourself.

Wave 5 in progress.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics

You're a hater!

If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.

Don't worry, I have plenty of btc.

Me too.  I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low.

BTW, we are looking at the count without the background.  Background was the alternate that didn't happen.

Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/

I think this 5 wave model doesn't work in this case. There are some obvious wildly inconsistent things with BTC in general that are fairly obvious and common sense. But purely from a strict technical standpoint, there are many differences in BTC's behavior this year. For instance, look at "Wave 4" in your model. Wikipedia states:

"Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three."

While the first statement is true, the other two statements are false. Volume was not "well below" it was moderately below (if you average all the exchanges). And retracement was well beyond 38.2% by many miles.

Furthermore, Wikipedia states:

"Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received)."

Again, volume is not very much lower right now in this rally, with the exception of the 48 hours that BTC exploded up to 266.  As well, prices and other indicators are not really showing divergences. In fact, new markets (China) are on the rise.

Also, Wikipedia states:

"Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1." --> this was a gross understimate in BTC's case

and

"Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest)." ----->  if this is a 5 wave pattern, would BTC operate as a commodity would?

Again, it doesn't seem to fit to me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_wave_rules_and_guidelines


Everything else is guidelines, and some apply to bitcoin better than others.  For instance, bitcoin is tiny and illiquid.  It also has highly variable volume, again due to it's small size.  These things must be factored in.  Also, as stated in the "personality" for wave 3, in commodity markets wave 5 outperforms 3 in size and volume.  Bitcoin arguably behaves more like a commodity than a stock.

Wikipedia:

"Benoit Mandelbrot has questioned whether Elliott waves can predict financial markets:

    But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgement of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed.[17]

Robert Prechter had previously stated that ideas in an article by Mandelbrot[18] "originated with Ralph Nelson Elliott, who put them forth more comprehensively and more accurately with respect to real-world markets in his 1938 book The Wave Principle."[19]

Critics also warn the wave principle is too vague to be useful, since it cannot consistently identify when a wave begins or ends, and that Elliott wave forecasts are prone to subjective revision. Some who advocate technical analysis of markets have questioned the value of Elliott wave analysis. Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:[20]

    The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.

The Elliot Wave Principle is also thought to be too dated to be applicable to today's market, as explained by market analyst Glenn Neely:[21]

"Elliot wave was an incredible discovery for its time. But, as technologies, governments, economies, and social systems have changed, the behavior of people has also. These changes have affected the wave patterns R.N. Elliot discovered. Consequently, strict application of orthodox Elliot wave concepts to current day markets skews forecasting accuracy. Markets have evolved, but Elliot has not."

Cool story bro, head it a thousand times.  I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out.  The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture

I would additionally argue that if Bitcoin "wave 5" outperforms "wave 3", that "wave 5" is likely to turn out to NOT be a "wave 5" after all - instead it would area of resistance altogether.

I know it seems nice to use these simple wave formulas to speculate, but there is much to much going on and way too few bitcoin being traded for us to surmise where this things is headed intermediate term.

That said, now that wave 5 is in progress, Elliot offers nothing other than "keep a tight stop" :P.

So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.

Well no shit, this is about sharing potential outcomes and their likelyhoods, not predicting the future.  That is impossible

Corrections can happen quick in this market.  Only having orders on the books at all times can win you extra btc in this market.

So you sold in July (except for your bot) and now you would be happy at $116 but dont expect it to fall there.  Is that what I am supposed to suppose the answer to my question was with that riddle you just put in quotes?

Or maybe you bought in July believing that wave 4 was ending. Nice work, if thats the case.

No.... where are you getting that I sold?  In July, I labelled the rally as wave 1 of the 5 wave structure.  That was a bullish call, so I wouldn't have sold.

As I bolded, "I haven't really investigated a target".  If you really want me to, I can pull up some charts, but I'm more of a big picture guy and just sometimes guess at short term wiggles for the fun of it.

In short, my answer is my bot buys back at many levels, but I don't do manual trades on anything smaller than the weekly charts.  The bot is a bit short, but at a price I can live with if we take off from here since it makes money from dampening big swings ;).

The most fun part of the roller coaster is when it gets down. Weak hands might slip away from the wagon.

Also, be cautious, climbing up with your eyes closed makes you not see when it goes downhill.

If you're bullish, when the coaster falls, grab all the coins you can from those who fall off.  One of my longer term scenarios is that this 5 wave structure I've labelled is wave 1 of the 5th wave starting from the initial trades.  Wave 1 ended at 32, wave 3 ended at 266, wave 1 of 5 down, 2-5 to come.  This is of course ultra bullish, but it is a possibility at this time (aka you can count it this way without breaking any of the 3 rules).

Wave 5 completed, ABC corrective should end in price territory of Wave 4... ie $120-$150.

Curious, what kind of confirmation do you look for to conclude that Wave 5 has ended? Not too knowledgeable about wave theory.  :)

with heavy volume manipulation I am feeling fairly bearish on btc right now.  I did make about 5000, so I am good for now.

sorry I see this  ;D

https://www.tradingview.com/i/VWOU5mBQ

If you are right and this is that much talked about pattern, then this is bullish news. At 120-150 we form a base for Wave #1.  Last time the base was in the teens.

In my longer term count, this entire wave up from $65 was just wave 1 of 5.  Wave 1 ended at $32, Wave 3 ended at $266.  We have completed wave 1 of the 5 wave structure that will make up the longer term 5th wave.  After this corrective wave 2 completes, this count calls for wave 3 up, then 4 down, then 5 up to complete the long term 1-5 starting with the beginning of bitcoin trading.

Yes this is ultra bullish, but I'm talking weeks - months for most of these waves.  In between we will have some gut wrenching drops.

Momentum dying off on wave B.  Wave C to come unless we get a few big buys soon.

Can you show us a chart with this A,B and upcoming C corrective and exactly how is this Wave C going to put us at $120-$150?

I sold my last small standing at 214.3 today. Normally this means that the market will skyrocket pretty soon.

you sold all your bitcoin?

lol what?

Why?...... just why?

What the...what...I don't even.

Maybe it was with the hopes to buy back at a lower price?  That is a bit risky to do though.

Maybe he knows the bearish wedge we've been staring at will break down. I don't have those kind of stones, but kudos, sir!

I love this. Later such people will haunt those forums screaming and cursing price to drop because they missed the boat.
There are more and more people who are simply buying bitcoins, and you are giving them away that cheap, which means you wont see them any more. At that price anyway.

Something like that. :-)

But just to clarify - we are not talking large sums here. I Now have $440 in my account. ;-)

Are you trying to say that bitcoin can never possibly go below $200 or $150 again?

malawi, you got some balls. You know that you just threw away US$2 Million, right?

Oh no, I gotta rush to buy back in a few days or a couple of weeks.
Have got some standing orders in the 100-125 range just in case.

I like your style. $100 bitcoins, here we come!  :D

https://www.tradingview.com/x/XuJM6uqA/

Much smaller time scale, and more bearish, but we'll see how this plays out.  5 up is trying to make a comeback, but 5 down hasn't quite given up yet.