Bitcoin Forum

The only reason I can think is that Cisco analysis published on their blog?

Any other reason do you think?- I hope it goes down again. I saw it jump up to that at the last difficulty level and it's been hovering around 11 since consistently. 

It called variance. Pools were lucky and solved 10 extra blocks in the last 24 hours. Network is still at 11.5 Th, expected to hit 12 Th in a week.

Aaaah ok where can you check that the pools solved those extra blocks.

Also could you let me know where you were able to gather your expectation from? I would like to be able to estimate as well.

Thanks a mill.

Gribble is still showing us more or less on par to where we've been for this round:

[11:13] <@gribble> Current Blocks: 136089 | Current Difficulty: 1563027.9961162 | Next Difficulty At Block: 137087 | Next Difficulty In: 998 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 15 hours, 24 minutes, and 10 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1631293.15723098

There was a sight jump the last day or two but nothing awful imho.

"Why has the network jumper to 14 terahashes?"

well i see ppl still discovering BTC daily and joining thier Mhash and Ghahs/s to the network

there are even still ppl buying hardware to mine on. Depending on thier circumstances it could still be viable to mine. 

despite the in creasing difficulty I dont expect the hashrate to drop in the neaar future :)
others will have different opinions, I can only go on what i see daily at my pool and around the forums /netwrok :)

it's at 15G now
RUN!!

If we were steadily chugging along at ~150 blocks/day, an extra 10 isn't going to cause the network to jump nearly 30% from variance.

It's the Moore's law of Bitcoin. I don't think price matters, nothing will stop this law.

Mousepotato agreed.

but where do you see this 30% jump in the network, maybe I'm missing something.

Last I looked (yesterday) it was around 11.8 TH/s.  Right now it's at about 15 TH/s.  It could be a combination of my bad memory and even worse math skills, but I guesstimate that's close to a 30%  jump.

nevermind, you guys are probably watching bitcoincharts.com

anyone ever questioned how that number is calculated at their site?  I know their formula is wrong or at least misleading. That number will show a big drop in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Network is still at 11.5 Th, expected to hit 12 Th in a week.

I have a hard time believe it's just variance/luck. It was a *very large* spike.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin-2k.png

Yeah, I was referring to Bitcoincharts.  I've always had my doubts about the accuracy of the network numbers (the exchange rate numbers are pretty accurate though) since they've often been off by a TH or two with regard to Deepbit's hash power. 

Botnets?

its well over 16thash now, dot bit is showing a "instant" difficulty of 2.2xx.xxx, this does not seems to be a peak.

There's no way this increase is variance, some serious hardware is coming online...

I think it's too big of a swing to be simple "luck".

What is going on? Did some large cluster just go online?

1 or 2 Thash is a lot of 5830's.

And I don't think the SIPA charts are pulling figures out of thin air, either. Their figures have matched up quite well with eventual difficulty increases.

You can see there's an obvious change between the right-hand side of the chart (today) and a little bit to the left of it, where it's often "below the line".

Ain't nobody THAT lucky!

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin-2k.png

Mining isn't as unprofitable as some people seem to claim.

I think we have a hidden "big player" in bitcoin mining... It has a lot of GH/s power and is turning it on just before difficulty increase/decrease to make mining more unprofitable. That way it knocks out small miners and will free its mining process in the future.

What do you mean about this?

22 blocks in the last 2 hours blame JPMorgan

http://hardforum.com/showthread.php?t=1622219 was posted today, by the look of the replies quite a few people there didn't know about bitcoins before. If any forum has the hardware to make an increase like that it would be them.

 ;D

I was wondering the same thing about the increase.  I thought it was finally stabilizing at 11 and then it seemingly jumped to 15 within an instant.  Things are about to get a whole lot more interesting...

I know there are people here who seem to think difficulty and BTC price are related...  Not being one of those people myself, I believe that we'll see a HUGE BTC SELLOFF once the next increase happens and people decide to cash out and run from their large scale costly and time consuming mining operations (the steady fall from 17 to 14 illustrates my theory that this has already been occuring since the last 2 difficulty increases).  I only hope the price rebounds once that happens.  I fear that for now the trend is down.  Hopefully some major news site drums up some more interest in bitcoin speculation to offset the declining factors so that us little guys can continue digging up bitcoins.

I'm really pissed up my 8gh/s rig isn't going to be turned on till the weekend.

Is there not some way to find out where all these power is coming from? Is this from other or one of the pools?

Nearly 16th now  :o

Will loads of small miners get out of the game and bring it down again? What percentage of the network would be small miners? ie. 1 to 1.5 gighash.

Yeah it was me.  I got sick of trying to play Crysis 2 on high settings, so I went back to mining for Bitcoins.

buncha reactionaries... geez. Even a picture posted in this very thread of the spiky nature of the current entry. If in 12 or 24 hours the rate stays this high it might be something to go ape about, but for now it looks like the same anomaly as the 7/9 spike that didn't result from any massive new mining cluster coming online.

Difficulty isn't staying put -- that's a pipe dream.

Mark my words.

Look at how many people are sitting on *prime mining hardware* who still are just finding out about Bitcoin.

One guy said:

"Even if I can get 1/2 my new PC paid off in the space of 1 year, I'm in!"

...

So until THAT becomes not true any longer, expect more and more miners -- and difficulty.

Moral of the story: Don't run your income calculations with "0 difficulty increases" factored in -- you'll be in for disappointment.

Moral of the story: Don't estimate more than 1 1/2 - 2 months out.

TL;DR (for all you young'uns) -- If the payoff period is greater than 60 days, RUN AWAY. Or at least be patient for a better deal. I'm serious.

Exactly.  That's why I've always held the opinion that difficulty does not follow price.  Rather, difficulty follows awareness.

Still not having a "huge" impact as of yet.  Seems like things always speed up towards the end of a block cycle.

[18:15] <@gribble> Current Blocks: 136150 | Current Difficulty: 1563027.9961162 | Next Difficulty At Block: 137087 | Next Difficulty In: 937 blocks | Next Difficulty In About: 6 days, 3 hours, 3 minutes, and 25 seconds | Next Difficulty Estimate: 1659938.08690295

Looks like we might be in store for more of a difficulty bump than last round.  So it goes.

Then again, difficulty rate of increase seems to have slowed as compared to the last several blocks.  EG., it's not growing at 50% and more.

So long as it pays for the electricity and maybe a bit more, I think people will do it.  That and so long as it remains semi-viable (eg., you can turn it into $ without too much difficulty).  Would be nice to see more vendors getting involved.

I doubt many of us who are already "in" will be getting "out" anytime soon.

So find a seat and enjoy the ride.

All that being said, I am curious why network hash seems to rise as we approach the end a 2016 block round.

Probably people finally getting their orders delivered (thanks NewEgg!) combined with part-time miners giving it one last go before the next difficulty bump.

Not sure what algorithm gribble uses, but it's still too early to tell, we're about half way through the round, there have been a few spikes way above average hashrate, and a few days below. If this little blip continues (and my guess is it will not) we might see a larger bump than last time, but most likely not. If you notice gribbles current estimate is only 6%, which is far lower than last round (and likely not accurate, though it'd be nice).

I'm hoping the little guys like us can weather the storm at any difficulty.  I know I'd probably mine for BTC at a loss to "be a part of something" that I am excited about.  The question is, when will the big farms close up shop?

WTF people. You can see yourselves in the posted graph that those swings in estimated hashrates happen all the time! At elast wait until the 3 day moving average takes off and then start freaking out.

now that's the last thing bitcoin needs. even more geeks.


first page, last post.. some idiot posting about 500Mhash/s on a 5870. and his 6970 apparently gets 460+Mhash/s at 950MHz.

Miners that focus on income based on current trading prices should be focusing on building the btc economy - win win.

I've always been under the impression that the 'Network Total' field on BitcoinCharts.com was generated from a moving average of blocks solved per hour.  Meaning a huge spurt of pools or miners getting lucky and solving a bunch of blocks for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' field quite a bit.

Example: 8-9 blocks were being solved per hour for several hours would inflate the 'Network Total' hash by 25%-50% even though 'actual' would be much lower.

Cheers,
Kermee

That is correct, this is why if you refresh bitcoincharts every 30 minutes or so you will see the hashrate dropping. Not because people are dropping out, but simply because as the spurt gets dropped by the moving average, the apparent hash rate is calculated lower. From 16THash to 15THash to 14.5THash since I began reading this thread. We'll have to wait and see where it lands however.

Now that's a refreshing spirit up in here. 

+1

Just read what the post was.

lol, Welcome JPMorgan (http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=28438.0)!

The network is back down to 11.46 THash/sec on bitcoincharts.com, as a few smart people stated, this was just a bit of luck variance, not any JPMorgan conspiracy or whatever.

I was really happy to see that it had dropped when I checked first thing this morning.  :)

And yet, it looks like the hashrate is permanently higher now.

That is, the 3-day moving average has been permanently affected -- not exactly a two-hour "luck blip":

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin-2k.png

I've noticed, a ramp up to the middle two-3 days BETWEEN difficulty, for the last 4 changes, I also suspect its a large player turning on in the middle period between  changes, this would effectively be the best time to not affect difficulty if you were a big player IMHO

Yes Angelus. All your posts in this thread are spot on !  Mine are way off !!  

All the smarts on this forum are the reason I'm coming back daily.  More mining contracts, more JPM threads, more deepbit at 51% threads, more 40% network jumps, more RALLY / CRASH  threads, more of everything ! I WANT MORE !! You people never disappoint me. Keep up the good work.

Thank you

And what, pray tell, are we supposed to discuss on this mining subforum?

What would meet YOUR approval? (Not that I personally care, but just for the sake of discussion...)

I think people like you enjoy complaining, but you don't post the kind of posts you'd like to see. If you don't want to light a candle, don't curse the darkness.

In fairness I am new, however if your looking for something different try a day trader forum though - oh you don't want to go there?

I don't like to speculate but a big jump made me freak - my thread was a panic reaction. Perhaps these could be prevented...I've one or two ideas.

Angelus, I will answer, since you asked.  OP asked a legitimate question if he was looking at bitcoincharts.com

I answered him SPOT ON. Not many here even remotely know how bad variance CAN be and WILL be in the future. I know that bitcoincharts.com formula for network hashrate IS WRONG.  This was later in the thread confirmed by others. OP or whoever else thought network hashrate somehow instantly jumped from 11 Th to 15.7 Th within hours. No one bothered to check other sources or ever question what kinda formula bitcoincharts.com are using. No one using common sense, and think for a moment. If we needed all this time, years actually, to get from Satoshi 3 Mhash in 2009 to 11 Th today, how the fuck will someone add 40% of the whole network up to that moment online just like that. People like yourself ( I have nothing against, as long as info is somewhat within reasonable ) jumped on this 14 Th like hot potatoes and everyone came up with their own version of it.

Now you come up with a new chart explaining how 3 day moving average has changed. Sure chart plotted it that way because its an average. We hit those lucky rounds and what moving average does is plot it on the chart. That's all. In the meantime network hashrate didn't move for more than 50 Gh. We are still at the same 11.5 Th we have been prior to the start of the thread. Today with this chart you somehow trying to again flip the real story here in the way that you actually weren't WRONG with everything you posted in this thread. Reality is you were wrong on every single line you posted. This doesn't help the community and bitcoin project. There are 100s of new people coming here daily reading all this what seems to me mostly nonsense and they paint there picture of this community. It isn't pretty.

It might seem like I enjoy complaining, but I'm not. This is as far from the truth as it could be. I want everyone to smarten up and get more professional and think for a common goal here. Instead I mostly see GREED for fiat cash, or 101 version of some pyramid type scams or businesses that make no sense, like mining contracts that produce over 50% less bitcoins as a result for the guy that would buy a contract.  

People need to smarten up and not constantly speculate on every tiny change someone sees somewhere. People need to object when they see a bad business offer that doesn't make sense. Forum owners should step up to the game and ban all pyramid type of threads. Mods should do their work and lock tons of threads that get out of hand daily. All of what I wrote is just a tip of the iceberg.

Thanks for your response.

If I were you, I would have started a thread, "Bitcoincharts WAY OFF -- here's why" and explained what you just typed -- it would have informed the community -- taught us all a little something. That's what I try to do all the time.

And there's a difference between authoritatively stating something, and musing/guessing. I always make it clear which I'm doing.

And you're right, the actual hashrate didn't go up by all that much.  I realize variance is just that -- variable. But according to Bitcoincharts, the "spike" was lasting quite a while, due (as you said) to their faulty algorithms. But I had never heard the criticism of their algorithms. I was just asking "why" -- I obviously had serious doubts about 4 TH/s being added in a few hours -- but I figured at least SOME of the spike had to be new hardware -- maybe 500 GH/s. Who knows? 
I (and others) just have to wait for guys who know to chime in and clear things up.