Bitcoin Forum

Ok, so for me as a huge blockchain enthusiast, nothing annoys me more than seeing all this FUD from new members or traders.
I've tried to demonstrate through a simple ms paint picture, taking an example of another correction to explain.

https://i.imgur.com/EW8CbV1.png

Now as we can see, between Nov 20 2016 and Jan 05 2017, we had a 62% increase in about 3 and a bit weeks, to a lot of investors this is worth cashing out over, great returns!
The value then dropped around 34% from $1170 to $767 on the 12th of Jan 17, it then took till the 22nd of Feb to return to this value of $1170, around 5 weeks! this is the period where panicked people continue to sell due to the dip.

Now from the $767 price at the dip in Jan, it took around 3 months to hit a new high around $1250 with around 62% increase, this is more sustainable than the earlier rise of 61% in 3 weeks.. so what do we see? of course another correction but a much shorter one, why? the period of growth was slower, more sustained so the incentive to cash out is lower compared to 61% in 3 weeks.

Now if we look what has happened recently, Bitcoin went from $6000 in mid November 2017 to $18,000 in mid December 2017, this is a 200% increase in 1 month!
So what happens? once again people see a chance for a huge profit and cash out.

Now $18,000 to $10,000 is a 44% drop, after 200% in 1 month is this really surprising? not at all..
Based on what we've seen, the recent jump will cause a larger than normal correction, this is what we're seeing now.

I can't tell you how long this correction will last but my gut says it'll go a bit longer, am I in a panic? no way, everything's on sale!

I hope this brings a bit of calm to some, I've used BTC as an example but the same concept applies to all coins and the entire market value.

So you meant to say next jump will be $25k

Hard to say, the idea of this was to explain why things are still sound and stable, rather than to predict the next jump.
No reason why we can't see it hit $25k in the next 2-3 months though, but I think we could go to $8000 first, to sell under this price you're either a long term holder who's giving up at a bad time, or just a panicked person, just an opinion, not fact.

I also have a strong feeling that bitcoin will reach $25k price, maybe next two months we will see the price  starting to  go up again heading $25k  as what some people predicted.

I think this is just a cycle of FOMO and FUD, most people buy into these coins when the FOMO set in and start selling when the level of FUD is high, like the way it is now, when they said the patient dog eat the fattest bone, I was tell one of my friends not to buy BTC when it was going towards $20k, and wait for under $10k to buy, today it is below $10k, one need to master the space with to me is a combinations science and art to make it big in the space

If you believe the future is crypto and that everything will recover then its a heck of a time to buy  :)

if we look at history graph then it is correct. many people are panicked and affected by other bad news, which makes them sell quickly all of their assets. I think btc will reach $8k and that is the lowest price in this year.

Will you compensate the people if they lose everything what they have invested by holding the wothless crypto by your useless suggestion?

Says the guy telling every one to sell at a low? ok mate... you can't provide any info other than your India fud, India makes up under 5% of the crypto world, the likes of China and SK bringing out similar news had no impact, these are 2 countries on the other hand who make up a far larger chunk than 5%.

Your logic is terrible, also is it normal human behaviour to offer help in such a manner that you are? doesn't seem like help to me, more a FUD to drive down price for your own gains, no helpful person would open a thread going HODL HODL HODL ROLF ROFL ROFL.

You're either attempting to scare a bunch of noobs, thinking it'll have impact= logic fail
Or you're just a narcissistic clown with poor logic.

Either way, keep this in the 3 threads you've already opened today on the same topic.
Thanks bud :)

Just ignore zombies ... Look at his post history. Literally all he does is FUD.

Clearly he lost a lot of money after he made bad decisions and now he prays for the utter destruction of the crypto world, just so he can personally feel better about his misfortune.

To the OP -- Thank you for your well thought our post and explanation.

thank you for these explanations!!

I agree with the thread poster, it is normal market cycle and no need to panic, i can feel how people that bought the peak in last bull market will be feeling right now, but it is just a game of nerves, market will be back so do not sell in big loss now.

I don't agree, this idea is mostly owned by newbies, but old people still better off even btc falls to $6k. I think btc will stay at 6K-12K level till end of 2018

I feel more comfotable now

Thank you for the great illustration!

The 20 month exponential moving average for BTC/USD sits at 5000 and some loose change. I would not consider this as anything more than a much needed correction until we have a MONTHLY close under 5000.

The whales are shaking the tree branches good these days and a lot of easy bitcoins are falling straight into their bags! ;)

I'm liquidating a core position in stocks to get more crypto exposure during this fire sale.

Corrections in price of stocks, securities, forex and cryptocurrencies provide the best time for one to buy and during those accumulated time should be seeing as the time traders are taking profit from the recent upward movement.
Bitcoin as at the moment provide this best examples and to me we should not see this time as a clash or dieing of bitcoin but we should see it that long-term investors are taking profits from the last year trading.

so time to buy more?

exactly and hold them for apporx 6/9 months more it will be huge profit . you will be really happy this down fall is temporary you can see history. its giving you another chance to invest if you missed in 2011 / 2013 / or 2017

Thank you for taking the time to wright this and give a bit of optimizem back to the world in these fudding days.

Generally, I think speculation both ways are only natural, but I think I really was surprised by just how many people are rushing to call this bloodbath and crashes. Then I remember that there are just so many newcomers in the last six months that this is really their first experience of a correction lasting weeks. So we can forgive their panic. What's annoying is the new accounts saying "I told you so". I suppose there'll also be new accounts later this year saying "I called the 2xk high!".

Great explanation OP. I understand exactly how you feel. I think more new trader and holders in this forum should really read this and probably learn to stop panicking. Because I'm really fed up of seeing new thread lamenting on bitcoin crash whenever the price dips. Though, I may not fully agree on a particular price you predict after this dip but I know for sure that the price will pump soon.

And when bitcoin starts to go back up, there will be a TON of newbie investors who will be chasing the hell out of it. FOMO will be just as big as the panic that we are currently witnessing.

post of the day! thank you!

100% agree

These panic attacks from newbies are getting into my nerves, like they influence other people with their not so relevant thoughts regarding this big correction happening. Kudos to the OP, really a great explanation for people that doesn't really know how prices of bitcoin and alts works, tbh, this is just a simple math, i don't know what's alarming on this  :D
just keep holding guys and later on you'll say thanks to people that keeps on saying that it's not the end.

Perhaps not as much a question of FOMO and FUD as a simple evolution of a market that is at the moment very promising but it is also facing many regulatory and technical challenges. Also, there is obviously an psichological effect when the market rises fast. Many people that got into the market in the dips have already realised their economic objectives and simply cash out. That is particularly true if the climbs are steep.

that's a very good analysis. I also think this is a strong but healthy correction, preparing the entire crypto market to move to all time highs again

Well said mate, I was a bit unhappy when I saw the markets earlier today but I reminded myself it is a part of the process and that if Bitcoin hadn't gone up so high so quickly that this wouldn't be occuring. It is all about perspective, thanks for aiding us with that picture.

Thanks for pointing this out. I think that this years correction is a bit longer and deeper, but that the results will be similar nonetheless. Fill your bags while you can. ;D

That's a great explanation right there OP! If there is an organic growth wherein the growth in price is not that fast then the correction should not have been as fast as it is right now or it may not cause a lot of panic selling. Due to the entrance of a lot of people into crypto world in the past months who panic buy because they don't want to be left out without even knowing what the real purpose of bitcoin is or what is blockchain technology, nowadays they panic sell because they just can't comprehend that they are down now by 20-50% so as a result, they tremble with just a negative rumor or news causing a snowball effect.

Sooner or later, the market will reverse and then there would be a FOMO again causing a meteoric rise. I hope though that it would be an organic growth this time but in crypto world, when a coin gets attention, it would just have a meteoric rise again.

Thank you for taking some time to post this OP, I think most of us needs some lifting thread / article so we won't do any mistakes while seeing the downfall, reviewing the trend and the movements of bitcoin together with other cryptocurrency then newbies will be learn to hold, I would like to
thank you personally for giving some heads up better to read and understand what is the corrections and what we should do while we are seeing such
events to protect our investment. Keep it up.

pullback happen tho, good explanation

for me, im rebuying this discount , has cashed out eth , its shopping time

Good job on making some effort in your way explaining this information for the new investors to finally settle down from many weeks of nightmare and fear.. This would also help counter the fud circulating even here in the forum from obvious new accounts and promotional accounts from other currencies.. I’d rather be holding until the last breath than listen to those and ignoring them is the best possible option that I can manage..

Thanks OP for making the graph. I started investing in crypto during the July 2017 drop from $3k down to $1600. After looking at your graph and seeing the corrections visually we are definitely just going through another cycle. Nothing going up from $5k to $20k so quickly from a span of 1 month will go up forever and I guess here we are.... I just wish I made the smarter decision and sold when I knew it was too good to be true. The FOMO was so real near the end of DEC leading into the new year. I'll HODL because the technology itself is at least worth $4 trillion ;)

rofl why?

Do you think that this will repeat again with the network current status? I guess maybe lightning network could save it.

Correction is important thing for crypto, you dont need panic because if u believe to hold, you will get what do u need.

My dear friend,

He has not give buy or sell advise. the OP is simply trying to explain what a market correction is, what a support looks like and what a spike looks like, with some lessons from history. History is a thing you know, its not just rumor; based on facts about events.

Now coming to your strong statement -


will you compensate them if they sell based on your opinion, and the price does indeed rise?


Please dont make personal attacks. Again OP did not give buy or sell advise.

God bless us all.

Yes, I will compensate if he is ready to accept my challenge.

The OP is right about the speculation and well the 8K is right and it will slide a little more, but it's not the same cause I dont scold the stomach to think and well I guess it will be between 7K-8K is not meant to make people panic but this is a trace of my opinion, which I must say perfect and thank you for sharing the explanation thoroughly.

People tend to be wrong and panic will give way, this can not be avoided. Therefore, your fabrications are correct, but everyone has already decided for himself how to act on such difficult days.

too think the correction will last long. I analyse the trend flow from long.. and Usd 10000 was setted a resistence point and i was sure that this resistence point will be tested many time in upcoming days... even 2-3months.. this resistence point will be tested..
The other external factors has now nullifies the resistence and new resistence point can be 8000 then 6300 dollar.. and with more similar downtrend increase risk of fear between investors.. which can led to the next resistence point of 3000...
Though, in all the one thing that can be realise that the sudden hype may not be possible till next many weeks or few months.. only by analysing previous trends.. but anything can be possible with bitcoin.

If we'd have at least one post like this for every 10 "sell now while it's low" crap, we'd be much better.
Unfortunately we don't have even that ratio and the overall mood is rather gloomy.

I like your info and the graphs are nice. Unfortunately there's indeed plenty of room to go even more down and the correction is already taking too long for many.
I am curious what March will bring us, I have high hopes that we start to rise until then, or at least stop the downtrend.

Tell us about your challenge.

Yeah, very impressive explanation that can makes everyone enlightened their mind to hold their bitcoins. As I recall on the performance of bitcoin way back a year ago it looks the same situation, but in some point we can't blame those people to feel a panic since they have a lots of shares on their bitcoin that's whay they can easily sell their bitcoin. On the other hand, some people hold their bitcoin as they believe it will back to stabilized value gaining enough profit as they aimed to have it.

I already told about it.

Again, OP has not given buy or sell advise.

There is no challenge, I'm wondering why you are after OP?

There are so many people here who've never seen a bear. When you're in the market, the bears are scary and the bulls are exciting...

This is a healthy fight between the bulls and the bears. Go look at the stock market charts and get an understanding of how markets run.

This is not a crypto-utopian condition; this is simply a market, like any other market - equity, commodities, bonds. The days of the crypto-purists are now past us, BTC has a futures trade on it. It is a market asset for wall street. There are more forces at play than your simple crypto-enthusiasts, rogers, counrty bans, forks. The suits are here.

There is a saying; 'Bulls make money, bears make money; pigs get slaughtered'

For any of you scared; but still have balls left; go look at a chart, see where volume has been high, and the market has pulled up from repeatedly, or where a lot of buying happened over time. That is called a support. there is a support at 8,200$ and one at around 7800$, every support takes a battle to break by bears, because bulls tend to jump in to hold the price. Anyone of these could be a bottom.

Or we may be looking at a secular bear market now, it does not seem to be the case; but there is a chance. In case you dont know these terms go read. Research is not just looking at what new token ICO is about to launch. Man Up people. You came here for the riches, but this is war, dont be a PIG.

If you need the money, sell now to get as much as you need, there is uncertainty ahead.

The money that you dont need now but may in the near future Sell and get your capital.

The money that you dont need, and you either 1. believe in crypto or 2. Are in for the long haul. Load up, there is a sale out there, it may get even better or it may end. But this is the time to buy 'quality' at a discount. Not shit at throwaway.

For the non-serious who came to make a quick buck; The money that you wont miss, can laugh off, keep it steady. If you have a bit more, this is the time to slowly 'average it in' please get a fucking book or google to know what that means.

The bears & the bulls here, hat tip.

God luck & God bless all.

seems ur predictions are very accurate

Thanks for all the additions!
The support above $8000 is looking good to me, still calm on this end :)

Thanks for sharing this!

Like many other people in this thread I also believe this is just a correction. I have liquidated some of my stock holding to move into crypto. I am quite sure crypto is here to stay and will enjoy having a nice return over the next weeks or months from the additional money I invest this week, before returning it to my stock holding portfolio. 

how long do you think the "correction" will last? I believed everything in crypto,, but today,, I wonder if it will last anymore.. my investment fall very hard..

I hope the market will get better soon ~

I'm impressed with how you manage to speculate bitcoins price OP. I see the same pattern since a couple of years back too so I'm just sitting down and staring at my laptop and hodling. Might be a good chance to buy some bitcoins as well and hoard a couple since bitcoins price now has just dropped down to around $8k+.

I can't find it and won't read three pages of crying about the end.

Anyone who fears and/or panicking: Sell your coins, then get out of here. No need to write about crypto's end, because it's boring for the hundreth time.

Just hang in there mate, many bought during the rush and are now questioning things, I've done this before so I can completely understand how you feel.
Let me tell you, the regret I felt after selling in the past and watching it take off was enough to convince me to take an all or nothing approach with BTC, I keep it within levels that won't impact my life much if it were to go to $0, the flip side and more likely is it'll go up long term, time and patience are the main factors for trading BTC.

Now earlier on when I made comments about support at $8k, I've since had another look and the support has just gone up, we may see more dips and bumps but all indicators show this is just a needed correction, if this were the end it would be looking much different.

I wish I could answer your question on how long will it last, it's the golden question.

Unless you need money to pay bills or survive from your BTC income, just hold, I really don't think you can go wrong long term :)

I do not panic at all because I know it wil recover, even if it will not recover, I wil hold my coins because I believe in their project.

Bringing this back to balance out the FUD, too many negative threads going around

I almost believe that this crash was due to price manipulation or a conspiracy of some Bitcoin haters to make people panic and to make digital currencies to disappear but this corrections story was well explained in which it will make some people to calm down. I just hope that this $8,000 is the normal price now in which we could start to move forward.

After a sharp drop, growth follows!

Very useful information! Thank you!
I also think that not worth worrying about, because the currency fluctuations in the market were and always will be. You just need patience and wait. Of course there are people who see this as a huge problem and start selling everything. Do not need to do this in my opinion. I hope soon the market stabilizes. So that are typed patience.

Very informative, good job OP! As for those who have nothing good to contribute to this thread, stay the heck out and keep your personal agenda to yourselves! I just get so annoyed by these hooligans who have nothing valuable to chip in. Shame on you! 

I hope the new members of this forum will come across this very logical post. This is a very timely post. We all know that the FUDs are ruling the emotions and consequentially the decisions of those people who remain half-hearted in their support of Bitcoin. I think they only lack the knowledge and the awareness that this dip in Bitcoin's value is not the first time. And every time there is a dump like this, another round of bullish growth will follow immediately.

Thank you for this very amazing and inspiring post. This post will help everybody, specially for those panic sellers. History repeats itself. We don't want to get worried, because price of bitcoin will never get back to zero. It is only price correction, we need to wait for the next moves.

Thise corrections don't scare me anymore and my decision is not to loot at monitor and the rates. The crypto market is so joung and unstable, i see it's normal , what we are seeing now - manipulation of the big players in the market who wants to buy cheap bitcoin and altcoins. They pay for fake and promote real negative news, to dump the prices more and more.