Bitcoin Forum

Hello everyone!

So as most of you probably have already seen, we have another big blood bath, BTC hitting 8000$, not even talking about the altcoins. So what is happening? Well in my opinion, it is combination of two factors.

In the last few days, there was a giant FUD about India banning cryptocurrencies. It was a misinterpretation of the statement from India finance minister Arun Jaitley. He has said the following:

Mainstream media then started the with-hunt and spreading the FUD of India banning cryptocurrencies. This had great affect on the price and got the BTC under 10K, hitting support line at 9000. But today, we are hitting the 8000 support line, why is that? Well, there comes the second factor.

We are closing to the Chinese Lunar New Year! Why is that a factor? Well, because most of Asia celebrate it and it is one of the biggest, if not the biggest event there. Quite a lot of people from Asia working overboard will come home to celebrate with their families. And what do they need? Money. And a lot of it, as Chinese New Year is the biggest spending spree in Asia. So when they see the FUD about India and the BTC going down, they will panic sell as they can't afford to lose any more or they would not have money for big spendings. And also it is not so long ago we have had the Korea FUD about BAN of crypto...

There is also the third factor. People see that governments are actively trying to regulate crypto markets. Some of them panic sell, some of them decide they have already pocket filled and some of them simply lose the trust...

In my opinion, combination of those factors led to this blood bath. I might be right, I might be completely wrong. What is your opinion?

Link to the article explaining India FUD here:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/india-bitcoin-prices-drop-as-media-misinterprets-govts-regulation-speech (https://cointelegraph.com/news/india-bitcoin-prices-drop-as-media-misinterprets-govts-regulation-speech)

I agreed, its one of the most logical reason not to mention if we see the chart of bitcoin in the recent years. Price always decline in the early year and since chinese is one of the biggest investor in cryptocurrency, it make sense that people need to have cashflow in the oncoming lunar new year. As additional reasons was a review about banning advertisement from facebook and other social media about cryptocurrency, it spread FUD that cryptocurrency was not accepted worldwide although the popularity has soar this recent months  ;D ;D

This is what I call an amazing opportunity created by the media for everyone who was left behind in jumping on the bandwagon, now is the time to get a hold of all the coins you can at  bargain price before it jumps back again to it's original price.

Every dip someone comes up with some unrelated predictions to explain the market. Why don't people predict this before the dip happening? These predictions are being made from the point BTC fell to $14K from $17K, $14K to $11K, and now $11K to $8K. Its started with the CMC price confusion, Korean FUD, Lunar year, Wallstreet manipulation and now Indian FUD. Many people also say that this is the correction Bitcoin needed, which is very healthy.

I have Just gotten used to the fact that the market is always irrational and unpredictable. Nobody can time the market and it will always do the opposite you expect. It can dump with good news, and moon with bad news. This is just a random dump, we have had many before and we will have many in the future. Just Hodl Away!!

Oh right, i forgot about the FaceBook! It just add to my point of people losing trust though... Anyhow i do agree with you, there is almost no point of guessing the price... It can drop to 5000 exactly the same as jumping to 20k out of nowhere... I also stand for a HODLing as i have no reason to rush things :)

Despite all the negative news, development in the field of blockades has not been canceled. While some start negative news, others work and achieve results

yes, chinese lunar new year always make bitcoin down, but not forever. i think media in india blow up government statement, then make crash bitcoin value

If you don't have any urgent needs to sell your bitcoin then just keep on holding it. For those who bought above 10k or even 15k maybe in panic now because they are expecting for bitcoin to rise. The rise in previous months were so fast that the correction is expected to be as big as well. There is a surge of new people to crypto as evidence by some exchanges closing its registrations for some time and this is their first experience of major correction so maybe many of them panic sell thus a bear market.

There is a point in guessing the price even if it is unpredictable. Price predictions somehow helps in the judgement of those who wants to sell or buy. It is pointless to those like you who hodl though. It can just be a good topic for you to debate on if one is just into hodling bitcoin. Still, I believe this price decrease is nearing the bottom and we will see a bullish trend again soon.

Yes, i definitely agree! The rise was unnatural, extremely fast and done by big hype. Now it is time for the correction to pass by and the rise will most likely continue in a slower pace like it used to... Slowly but steadily. It will be extremely healthy for altcoins too, as they would be more easily trade-able for BTC. Panic sellers always make things worse, but it will settle down eventually. I always saw the 50k BTC predictions impossible in a year, as the growth at the end of last year was simply impossible to be kept. But we will see what Lightning network will do with BTC price! :)

Yeah, there are much current news about crypto this year like what I heard about social media would banned crypto, government wanted to regulate or shall I say control this technology. These things affect the price of btc which is happening right now and I hope people will still hold and keep believing the power of btc.

Maybe you are right, all the negative news background influenced the crypto currency market, but it seems to me that the news that India does not recognize bitcoin as a payment instrument is greatly overvalued.

I wouldn't expect Lunar New Year to have that noticeable impact on the price, but that would somewhat explain why BTC prices in Korea and Japan (usually the highest) dropped below the 'western' prices. I believe those 2 countries also celebrate Lunar New Year, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

And there's also the Tether/Bitfinex crisis, US Commodities and Futures Trading Commission issued subpoenas to them on 6 Dec, but news surfaced ~2 days ago.

Whoah! Take it easy, we're not very sure if btc will drop up to $5k but if this happens I'm afraid that it might cause other holders who are not brave enough to panic sell which results to worse situation. The only thing we can do for now is hoping that these bad news including the FUDs spreading around will not contribute very large damage in the market although knowing that it could be a great threat and hope everyone will stay calm and remain holding their coins whatever happens. :(

You got it right mate you just miss one event and that is the Facebook ad ban. It also contribute to the blood bath in altcoins. My projection is it go down up to 4000 level at the first week of march. With this kind of bad news really hurt the cryptomarket and We cannot blame those to wants to exit. It's normal reaction but I think with that level We can average down and the profit will follow.

Bitcoin going down to $4,000 is a bit of an overkill I think the lowest we could go down is at least $6,000 or $7,000 but then again these kind of amount are possible for bitcoin to reach with the current price. I really do hope this is the lowest price bitcoin could go for so people would stop spreading fud and hate on bitcoin.

India banning crypto, I agree that kind of news gave an influence to the price. I don't agree with the Chinese New Year i've heard a different user saying that bitcoin's price could go down during Valentine's day. We can't be sure about that because the price of bitcoin last year between those days didn't went down but I could be wrong since bitcoin is unpredictable.

I think that OP reasons definitely have impact on the current situation,and history has shown as that this time of the year usually always brings price decrease.When we add to that all "bad" or misunderstood news,some will say just FUD,then we have something like this.

The media play a big role in influence to people,and bad news somehow always spreads faster than good news.People who know and understand BTC,who are here to stay for long term are the greatest strength of BTC.Unfortunately there is no too much true believers,and every price drop is called end of BTC.

But what goes down, get back up and vice versa - 8000$ few hours ago/now 8700$ :)

I have no evidence for this.

What makes the most sense to me, via occam's razor / path of least resistance is, crypto exchanges where trades can be made without paying commissions are conspiring on some level to devalue bitcoin. This appears to be coordinated in conjunction with the media "story" claiming tether is artificially propping up bitcoin's value. There may also be a coordinated sell off. Recent news of banks and financial institutions banning bitcoin or refusing to sell crypto to their customers probably doesn't help much, either.

Of course, the accusation of tether boosting bitcoin's price is an extraordinary claim. I remember a time when people said extraordinary claims require evidence.  :)  Somehow I doubt we'll see any evidence.

Maybe all of those reasons contributed to the downfall of bitcoin in recent weeks. Or maybe not. One thing though I noticed though is that the media has really turn everything into a massive FUD for crypto. They try to spin everything to look like crypto is not worth a cent to be invested. And people actually bought every news the media outlet has been picturing the crypto sphere. That's why I said on the other thread that people have not issued with reading comprehension. Seems they can't really filtered out real news from fake ones. I just advise everyone just to look at every news and make better judgement.

I think you have a beilliant opinion my friend, the fud about india banning cryptocurrencies made a huge impact why bitcoin is going down. I guess most bitcoin holders easily believe on such fake news regardless if the infirmation is coming from a reliable source.

I disagree with some of your points

I agree the speech from India Minister was completely misinterpreted by the mainstream media but remember that the crash started several days before and we've seen worse than that over the years.

I know the Lunar New Year is not the same date each year on a Gregorian calendar (between January 21 and February 19 on our Gregorian calendar)
but if you compare with the previous year, it has never done something similar as today, maybe in 2014 but I doubt the Lunar New Year had something related to.

With all the factor you mention, I still say we've seen worse than that over the years. Personally, I start to wonder if there is an inside job that we aren't aware of. 2017 has been a crazy year for Bitcoin, 2018 looks crazy as well but on the opposite path.

This is quite common in almost all areas of our society. And this is happening at the time or era when we have good access to information and communication. In other words, people can easily be moved emotionally more than the information they are receiving. People can easily moved to fear the unknown or to be afraid of what can be in the following days or weeks. Cryptocurrency is not making people more mature and it is even bringing the worst due to our speculative decisions.

All these noobs are being duped and trick by rich people.  Bankers and rich investors and manipulating these markets to pick up crypto and bitcoin for peanuts.

Very logical points.Now it's a little bit clear for why bitcoin price has fallen down this much.So it means that very soon after the lunar year celebration,we could expect once again price increase.

Misinterpretation of indian finance minister's words and enormous FUD related to it being spread was also a reason for the price fall.

Most of the governments trying to regulate crypto currencies has also made people to worry a little bit about their investment.

Markets can be irrational but that does not mean there are not reasons behind that behavior, to be honest I thought this drop was because of the recent Tether FUD we had lately but I suppose that explanation is as good as any other explanation, what we must decide is what to do with the current price and the only two available options are to buy or to hold.

True, and if you do have an extra pair of money you can manage to buy another bitcoin and altcoin. No matter what the news brings be strong and believe to your investments as we are the only one that can control our emotions. SO HODL!

I don't care about the government FUD...  Tether crippling and the ramifications it could have on the overall market is the reason for worry.

We're of the same opinion. You just put it down better. February 16, that's around the Lunar New Year, we can expect to see a run up.

They are being feed with a wrong information and ended up lossing money. This is a big dump I've ever experienced but I'm not on a panic mode because I see this situation in a different way, a time to buy more. After a good run last year this should be expected to happen and people should know this thing is really possible, this is how market works in the past.

I think that are some good points , i just don't understand why people still believe in the FUD of country's banning crypto.
Most country's seem positive about it and are looking at ways to adopt it , the media pumps out this fake news and people are believing it again.
It looks a lot like manipulation to me , and people keep falling for it.

In a highly volatile and still comparatively small market we are witnessing phenomenon of individual market movers.
Who are they ?
Youtube-rs, Analysts, Twitter celebrities, etc.

Usually they cancel each other out by offering conflicting worldviews, but due to some reason in the past week their convergence degree was much higher than usual and we witnessed dip that is now hopefully behind us.
All of us as a community must work much harder to develop influence-resistant behavioral pattern and to ignore FUD/FOMO moving forward.

Mature market that we are aspiring to become must not allow this degree of susceptibility to individual influence.

I think this is the effect of news issued by many governments that prohibit the use of bitcoin, whether this is purely a ban or just a setrategi to reduce the price of bitcoin so they can buy cheaply, which they will then legalize bitcoin later on

we no one knows what's behind all this
think positively   ??? 8)

It is... Like he did not even said they would not recognize it as a payment... All is just a misinterpretation of mass media, probably someone behind the curtain, someone who bought it at 8k and now is already in quite a lot of profit, as the blood bath has ended...

In my opinion, these are all factors that triggered the bloodbath, but really we were waiting for one because the December almost vertical price rise was clearly unsustainable, and the market just needed any excuse to correct.

And then once the fall started, it was massively amplified by all the newcomers who bought in during the December rush. I think these were inexperienced people unfamiliar with crypto volatility, and desparately trying to cut their losses. And then obviously each time one of these people sold the price fell farther, drawing in more sells from newcomers. Meanwhile more experienced traders could see what was happening, and a nice opportunity to short their coins for big profits.

I really think that the swathe of newcomers who fuelled the December rise are the main reason that the January/early Feb fall has been so hard. Unfortunately for them, they are the biggest victims - most other people were either trading up or just holding.

While the points you stated are quite true to some extent, I believe there are many reasons why Bitcoin is keeping on going down. Bitcoin has been going down because there were many FUDs and negative news related to cryptocurrencies coming up one after the other. The Korea FUD, the China ban, India ban, Facebook ban, negative news from the media etc... were just coming up one after another which resulted Bitcoin to keep on going down.

What you have said is highly logical, and i agree with it. I was wondering my self why so high drop in bitcoins price, and why so sudden. But i think you have made really good post about those questions.

All of those things are really important for bitcoin community and bitcoin it self, but i think that main reason why bitcoins price went down is panic selling. As we know from past events, panic selling can do quite a damage to bitcoins price. Because of so high number of newbies in cryoticurrency world panic is common thing. It will not be long before people understand that there is no need for panic, and in that moment price will start rising again.

I agree that there is no need to panic if you have a plan. Every investor has every reason to be cautious though since this may not be Bitcoin's year with all the news about regulation attempts in the global scale. We should be careful although still possible to invest gradually with small amounts.

We had those regulations, bans, hax and whatnot, quite a few times and besides all of that price managed to recover. Those bans won't last forever and, to be honest, I'm liking the stability of the price, it may not be as high as it was last year in december but it's quite much higher that what itwas at this tiem last year.

Also the price being at ~$8k, at it was a couple of times now, isn't lasting that long and we should use the price drop of btc and alt-coins to invest a little.

It might not have such a big impact but should be mentioned as well: the increasing interests on US government bonds.
Right now we have the highest interests on a ten year US bon for over three years.
That might bring some investors to move their money from a speculative investment form like bitcoin to something they consider to be more secure. Especially when you think of all the other facts that were already brought up in this thread.

     Well I believe that these are the most logical reasons that anyone of us can currently think of since there really are no other things that can concretely explain why such a huge dip has happened and still continues to happen going lower and lower. I have also seen a thread that was started by someone I do not know that stated that there is also a possibility that the reason for all of this is because some of the biggest whales in wall street are manipulating the prices. These people, as what the writer said, spent billions to buy bitcoins and sold them. Now I get it, it kind of sounds like a happening in a movie, but we can never really know for sure if this is real or not. Because clearly, these kind of people he is talking about can really do something like this if they ever decided that they wanna do it.

     Now, all of these speculations can either all be real, have parts of it real or be completely false. But whatever it is, we will never know unless anyone can really show some concrete evidences that can back any of these speculations up. Which means that at the end of the day, we all have no choice but to rely on our own skills or solely on our instincts to help us make the right decisions as to whether we should quit crypto or if we should keep on believing and holding. And I honestly hope that most of us at least if not all, will really be able to make a great decision that we will never regret in the future. Good luck guys. :)

The price was crazy last year and it was soaring as if the world is going to end,it wont be sustainable to have these sort of growth all the time,if the price of a stock increases rapidly you have to remember that it will come down when the trend reverses as everyone takes advantage of the rally and invest in it and as soon as the trend reverses they would sell off everything ,booking their profit,so there is no inside job in that aspect.   :D

That is a great hypothesis, I didn't even think about it. Just like the recent Christmas and new year people are expected to taking out the profit after they got a big profit. I believe since the China market is strong, the market will do a significant move. Well, that's is a good thinking.

Excellent information and of course, the news has completely influenced the online currency market. But I feel that it is being given too much importance, there are many trolls on the web that are responsible for causing a kind of panic for investors, we can not fall into this because both they and the media what they want is to end the btc platform.

It is FUD that is true, but if bitcoin keeps growing and it starts to become a real threat to governments around the world the possibility of a ban is not out of the realm of possibilities, governments do not want to ban bitcoin right now since they are seeing another way to tax people, the people are the ones taking all the risks and yet the governments wants to keep most of the profits for themselves, but as bitcoin becomes more accepted worldwide they will begin to see a diminish in their taxes and that is when they will begin to take real actions against bitcoin. 

I have read all your points and they all are on point.Bitcoin falling down is not the bigger issue in my vision but the biggest issue is it is taking all the alts with him and we are left with no option.If one thing is going down people can leave that thing to recover and move to another thing as happens when any alts fall but that is not the case in this situation.People are in panic mode right now and just than this negative news of bans and all comes which make them believe more on the news.According to me and the way i analyse the more the buzz,the more will be the downfall and vice versa.Right now this situation demands Silence,Patience,and Trust.

I think people just in panic after FUD situation which makes it falling tendency.  ::)

That was too scary a downfall to $8.2k and good it will now bounce back a little to $9k. This might continue until the Chinese New year as Chinese will exchange there coins into fiat for their celebration. Hold on bloodbath is not yet over.

To be very honest, i think the reason is pretty simple.... because the rise to $20K was unsustainable and not healthy.

FUD created by the media has created this bloodbath. There maybe big investors behind this scenario.

I wonder again: why do so many people really think that it is Chinese New year pushed the market falling? Crypto is the virtual currency which lives when it is supported. The belief of people has become simply weaker due to the bad news from Asia (regulations, bans, restrictions of crypto).

Well thank you for liking it :) As I discussed few comments bellow the main one, i forgot the Facebook affair, which was huge too... But as we can see, the price got a little bit higher again, so it looks better now. I expect the "normal trend" (i know, crypto is anything but normal) to occur around the second half of February. So in like 2 weeks :) I do not expect the super fast growth again, but rather slower, more steady one, but once again, there are tons of factors...  And some shady tactics sometimes :)

A mixture of manipulation, panic, and profit taking that's what it gives

I agree with your opinion. This is the accumulation of bad news from maimstream media and just like on other market when it comes to chinese new year profit taking is inevtable. People who trust the market are shopping right now with current discounts we have on almost all coins I hope i have more money.

The current situation where the price of Bitcoin dropped drastically made some crypto business people uncomfortable and panicked. But in my opinion, behind the current decline in Bitcoin prices there is a point of opportunity, where we can buy Bitcoin in large quantities and sell it later when Bitcoin prices start to stabilize, because I believe if the price of Bitcoin will return to normal as before.

This is correct but it is difficult to do that for an inexperienced trader, after all it is difficult to invest in something that is making you lose a lot of money, that is why trading is not only about being able to predict the price of the asset you are trading correctly at the end you need to have a lot of guts as well and be able to invest in something when it is suffering a great decrease on its price.

Good insight Op, I think the points you mentioned are a perfectly logical explanation of what happened (+Russa crypto ban, but that is part of extensive crypto regulation).
The beginning of each year has been historically always a hard point for bitcoin - do you remember early 2015 when bitcoin crashed to ~$200?
This time we were hit but cumulative bad news from Korea, India and Russia - do the only correct reaction would be crash.
What's done is done, however - we now have cheaper Bitcoin, so buy it while you can. We all know that the $20k is within our grasp.