Bitcoin Forum

Disclaimer: I'm a relative newbie that's been experimenting with different trading and arbitrage techniques on the various markets.

I'm just trying to take a pulse of everyone's general opinion; it's obvious that when the price spiked up to $30, there was bound to be a correction. Luckily I bought in most of my coins when the price was in the 13's last month. Now, as the price creeps back to where I first started at, I'm left wondering if BTC is in a "bear" zone, or this is simply a delayed market correction.

There doesn't seem to be a great deal of new capital entering the system, and most of the trading activity appears to be bots and humans reacting to minor market hiccups (at least in the last couple of weeks where I've been obsessively watching).

Just curious on opinions.

Bitcoins are still being mined, and some fraction of those are sold to pay for electricity.  There's enough new capital coming in every day to pay for the electricity.

I can agree with your first two assertions, but I don't see market evidence of the last one. If substantial amounts of capital were being brought in, there would be a number of indicators of that (most notably that the market would be trending up rather than down).

The first step is to add a time frame to your question.

(( IMO ))
Long-Term = Bullish

Medium-Term = Bearish | Extremely Bearish: Needs to retest the June 11-12 low of 10.25. | Could go as low as 6.50 to 7.50 (an old trading range) or even 1.50 if the Bulls finally give up, and enough people (including miners) panic-sell.

Short-Term = Could change before I'm done typing.   :D

Yeah I'm bearish for a while.

I cover in depth assessment of bear / bull situations in my technical analysis subscription service.
the picture bithappy painted is not how we see it in the analysis.

Maybe so, but the market has not been fulfilling your expectations of a breakout this week either.

The value of the bitcoin is currently locked in around the 13.50 - 14.50 range and given the order books and signs that both sides of the order book are apparently holding firm in their valuations, I can't see anything happening unless someone decides to stir the pot or new information comes to light that affects the perceived value of BTC as reflected by the market.

It is true that patience is needed for the breakout. Still, we expect the breakout to the upside from current levels, or slightly lower.

Beer market

I suspect that right now it is hipsters investing in bitcoin. It is slow, but steady. There will be a point in the near future of 5-6 months when bitcoins will become investments for the general public because apps and clients will be made available for their use. This will create a new steady period for awhile until there is a critical mass and bitcoins start catching on as spendable currency in trendy shops and boutiques. After that, they will become accepted as a mainstream currency as conservative vendors realize the benefits of bitcoins over fiat currencies.

IMO its a market correction. A close above $15 on heavy volume could lead us to a test of resistance levels at th $18-$19 level.

+1 This is also how we see it

Wake me when the running of the bulls starts. This low volume is putting me to sleep. :)

there's a wall @ 13 and 13.02, therefore almostly no wall to higher levels (only 1270 BTC to 13.6 USD), and this could simply ignite the-so-long-and-faithfully-waiting rally. So what's holding us?

By the time a "rally" does actually happen, we'll probably only be rallying up to prices at or lower than the prices at which people began predicting there'd be a rally.  The rally predictions have been going on for well over a week now.

Hear, Hear!

Volumes say it all at the moment, there's a glut on the supply side that needs to be sold and the bidders know there is no pressure to pay upwards for it. Until this situation is changed, or something else emerges to ignite a rally there'll be no action.

Think of it this way....miners need to feed their children and fuel their drug habits, buyers just can sit and wait for the moment.  :P

You forgot human's greed factor :) The longer market is "dead" (like right now), the greeder become most buyers("OMG I'LL MISS A RALLY, I'LL BETA BUY HIGHER!!!111").
And most miners don't do this as a primary job(it seems silly to me to count on btc mining only and investing what you can't afford to lose), thus "feeding children" is not connected to bitcoin anyway. Miners know the price for coin. They just need some more time.

steelhunter,

miners are just as greedy as anybody else. Every week the market is flooded with 50.000 new bitcoins. They will sell those coins to be sure that other miners wont sell first as long as the price is high!

All other things being equal, I'm perfectly happy to sit on my bitcoins until the market is more favorable.

Don't get me wrong, I'm in it for the long haul. I keep about 10 bitcoins in "savings" around for spending on stuff within the BTC world. I usually spend about 15 a week, mostly purchases for work equipment and whatnot.

I have about a grand I have devoted to investing and buying. I've been playing around with the market and come out probably 5% ahead,but I generally don't leave all of that in BTC if I walk away from the computer.

In other words, I have faith in the long term viability of BTC, and am a practitioner, so to speak. Short to medium term, though, I don't want to keep buying and holding as value drops. I'd rather buy closer to the bottom. Problem is I'm a relative newbie and I don't have an instinctual feel for what the bottom should be, nor do I have a good enough picture on the whole of the BTC economy yet to gauge factors like "is more money entering rather than exiting" BTC (other than using the markets as an indicator, which would say no).

Thanks for the clarification. I guess I was asking for medium term, since I'm bullish on the long term prospects.

 [[13.3,4,959.98]
3 minutes ago this sell order for  4,959 BTC was at ~13.3150, so we have an impatient seller of  4,959 BTC currently wanting to be the lowest bid and fist in line to sell. I have never seen a (sitting) huge order in such a hurry, usually they pick a spot and park for a while.

Gong down?

EDIT:
Motivated seller:
[13.19,4959.34]

EDIT#2:
[13.18,4810.98112083]
^^^
This person acts like an impatient child trying to sell 0.5126599 BTC.

[13.16,4780]

Hah, "impatient child" you say? No offence man, but that was the simplest market manipulation. It is in effect ever now. We're open to an uptrend but not instantly, though.

Sellers want higher prices not lower. This seller was desperate to be the lowest offer.