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What the hell are they planning to do now? What ever it is I bet BFL profits and anyone who falls for there shenanigans gets screwed. These so called CEO's have too much time on there hands, they sit in the BFL troll box when they should go down to the production floor and put some miners together, or at the very least some quality control.


https://i.imgur.com/7fENidd.jpg

Now you can buy your miner but never receive a thing, oh wait did we not do that one..  :o

<In a holy and commanding sounding voice>

http://biblescripture.net/God.jpeg

"BFL, let my people [the community] go!"

Sounds like BFL is going to raise the difficulty by orders of magnitude with the 65nm hardware they should've shipped to customers.

It's probably a tool that adds up the total hashing power of all your orders.  Dat hype.

You're reading way to much into this.   All it means is that have shipped a lot of orders recently and buyers will start mining as the receive them causing the Network hashrate to increase.  I think they've been assembling Singles and shipping them in high volume to Minirig customers.

That is God... you need Moses.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/53/MosesMosaic.jpg/220px-MosesMosaic.jpg

https://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage-new-products/1-gh-cloud-hosted-bitcoin-hashing-power.html

another pre-order .. lol

LOL

A Pre-Order Contract for Future Vaporous Shares!

hey Assholes! When you have 10 Peta-hash ready to go and start hashing on day 1 send me a PM


So I can pre-order the hardware and pay in advance then you take my money and build the product to fill your hashing farms then I get another chance to hash on the hardware by buying shares while I wait for it to be worthless when you get around to shipping the obsolete miners.

You GUYS are totally Unbelievable FUCKERS

With no guarantee of the contract start date, this is a worthless offer.

+ 1 from a worthless company

"this is our second generation, so we have much greater clarity on the process and we feel our timeline to launch towards the end of the year is solid."

LOL ! Towards end of the year, 2014, Amirite ?

Wow. This is actually their lowest blow.

Now they are claiming to have all the hashing they need to sell another product. They should be giving this away proportionately to the people they already owe!!

How can they possibly claim to have this online and not distribute it proportionately amongst the people they owe hashrate to?

Do they honestly think their long suffering customers even care about receiving their boxes anymore?!

Losers...

Do you really want to know why people shouldn't go buying Mining Contract shares with BFL? (or probably anyone for that matter)

It is because the period of decline is so small and sharp and the difficulty is climbing so high that it is a perpetual race "to the top".

In words anyone can understand....

Imagine I will give you 100$ if you can beat a toddler at the 100 yard dash. Surely you would win. But each time you come to race, that child turns one year older. Each time, you have to run just a little faster to get your prize. Eventually, your opponent is 30% faster than the last round, yet you still remain the same.

Eventually the difficulty of beating this runner has become so great that you cannot even hope to beat them for the 100$ prize.

-----------------------------

Essentially, if you sign a mining contract for 100Gh/s on November 20th, 2013. You will lock in a specific cost per Gh/s at BFL. But you will also marry yourself to a decreasing return every ~10 days~. Every 30 days, that 100Gh/s will return 20% less. By the end of the month half of it will disappear. By the next month you will be receiving almost nothing with your purchasing power.

You have two options, put all your income back into buying more hashing power to keep up in a perpetual an never ending race. Or you get BFL to give you 14 day contracts that terminate and re-rate at the end of each period. (BFL will never do this!)

Your choice! (are pretty bad, huh?)

You missed a third choice, and arguably, the wisest one.  ;)

$10.83/GH for something starting in either January or February? LOL!

Hey it might be sooner!!!   Joshes hosting company might get all your orders lol.  Reading shipping would be funny "10 rigs rolled down the street" lol.

Sadly, many of those people are just sc product line investors that saw the writing on the wall and turned in their failed 65nm order for the next waiting list at bfl. Now bfl is screwing them again.

I ran the numbers and these look as good as a dead donkey.

(Why is BFL even selling these at a higher rate than their Monarch Card?)

http://s22.postimg.org/c1dh6tfvl/2013_09_19_132618.png

Depreciating Price of 1TH at BFL hosting package.

http://s23.postimg.org/leu550srf/2013_09_19_141553.png

Edit: Condensed Image

AsicMiner at least bought the gear for their hash farms with share contracts only then only many months after did they sell the hardware in stock.

I have zero confidence that the BFL monarch pre-order money is a distinct and separate money jar from their farm share money jar.

There will be zero transparency as always and way too many unanswered questions

I can only see this as an epic bombshell to those who bought/converted their order to monarch in the first three days.

That probably means alot of the cards slated for November 2013 are now going into the mining farm and the folks who transfered their orders first to Monarch are almost surely going to be told their order will now be out by January 2014. (Or it will magically just turn out that way ;) despite promises of being on time.)

BFL, always putting the customer first?

Could you please limit the length of your images to something that doesnt wear out my scroll wheel or my finger tip?
Maybe this will help:
http://chandoo.org/wp/2009/11/17/group-dates-in-pivot-tables/

or use thumbnails.
ty

Sums it up well.

Let me see what I can do.

PuertoLibre, I would modify that gif to be 10 days per change, not 14.

BFL can not be trusted to meet the demanding challenges of time to market.  But they will still get more suckers I'm sure.  Their production ability is piss poor but their marketing and advertising is ace.

 Hosting contract equipment comes from our bulk production of Monarch cards so contracts will begin to be served in the January / February 2014 time frame.

FWIW

So much for BFL's claims to never to mine for profit with their own hardware (unless anyone is silly enough to believe they will keep those asics ready and boxed until someone orders the hash rate).

Kinda  predictable, first you sell asics for a huge markup (+screw your customers by not delivering for a year), then you screw them again by self mining, thereby competing with your customers but with vastly cheaper hardware.

They've surely been competing with their customers for some time. Without that motive their actions never made sense.

I have the strangest feeling their 28nm is further along than we think because they used money that should've been spent on ordering parts for 65nm products.  Which would explain why shit is taking so long.  Although I still don't think they'll make Jan/Feb.

We'll see what happens.  Such a shit company.

how can this shit be legal :D

a last straw, before everyone wants a refund
nobody wants the Monarch Card

With a 10 Day Period.

http://s9.postimg.org/96p785s7z/2013_09_19_142633.png

I dont think it is. The refusal to refund at least:

The Rule, issued in 1975, requires that marketers who solicit buyers to order merchandise through mail or telephone must have a reasonable basis to expect that they can ship ordered merchandise within the time frame they advertise, or, if no time frame is specified, within 30 days. The Rule also requires that, when a seller cannot ship within the promised time, the seller must obtain the buyer’s consent to a delay in shipping or refund payment for the unshipped merchandise.

http://ftc.gov/opa/2011/10/mailorderrule.shtm

With a 10 day period of change....wow the Hosting Package 1Th/s....the income pretty much flatlines at around Early February.

Yikes...

(An understatement)

How can BFL sell something which is obviously not even close to profitable? (BTC wise)

They could fix this by making the hosting contract only 1 month long max, or 14 days. They would have to substantially change things around to make it viable.

Hmm.. why would they sell this if they thought it would be profitable?

Why has this company not gone out of business already?

Seriously, can we get some more progress on the class action suit?

Or at least have more people contact their state attorney general and FTC.

We need to shut them down before they scam more people.

They are like a fungus that just won't die.

These 80% increases month on month are not sustainable.  We're seeing a lot of hash soon, so that makes sense, but by the time we get into 2014, it's going to ease.  Many older miners will become unprofitable and get switched off.  And because you're talking about a compounding of hash every month, you would need to ship almost double the amount of miners month on month.  So that's like saying everyone will ship 10,000 miners in October, 20,000 in November, 40,000 in December, 80,000 in January, 160,000 in February...  The mining market can't sustain that.  If it can, the value of Bitcoin is going to skyrocket as people convert a ton of cash to buy these miners. 

So a lot of these purchases are going to do better than this long term forecasts predict (Although there is always risk)

Not to say BFL is a wise choice to invest in.  There is no value in putting your cash into this until its online and you know what your ROI will really be at the time you make a purchase.  Same with any other service or offering.  Since BFL has a no refund policy, you take a greater risk on losing your money completely than other vendors. 

You probably don't realize that by May 16 2014 you have difficulty up over 6 billion.  We'd only need something like 54 Petahash to reach that and the total of all estimated preorders today only comes to around 10-14PH.  At that difficulty, anything that cost over $.50 per GH would be unprofitable long term by your table.  But hey, it's not intended to be accurate, it's just BFL you're causing FUD to after all.

I think it will continually rise.  KnC will go dark after December to start working on their 14nm or whatever.  Probably launching 10, 20, 30, 40TH machines in April or something crazy at today's prices.  I would expect two generation changes per year now.

While I agree that these increases are unsustainable long term, opaque and dishonest vendors such as bfl taking pre-order funds on the backs of people's ignorance will ensure that this mess can continue longer than it otherwise would. People are just now figuring out what a horrendous decision pre-ordering hardware months in advance is. Naturally Hashfast, CoinTerra, knc, etc...already have petahashes of paid gear in the pipeline. Dumb money will ensure that everyone in mining takes a haircut before rationality becomes more widespread.

With 28nm...

Need I say more?

Gen 1 ==> 300Mh/s to 2.4 Gh/s (per chip)
Gen 2 ==> 300Gh/s to 600 Gh/s (per chip)

Notice anything about the jump in each mining machines hashing power??

Hypocrites.  When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid.  Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.

Indeed, it will likely be (much) more than 80% before it begins to taper, and when that begins, it wont really matter anymore, either you made your profit or you never will.


LOL. Its only going to get started in 2014. Even if KnC delivers on their promise, thats only a few PH. Nothing compared to whats coming next year.


Yeah, all of 0.5 PH? You wont even notice that, just like no one noticed when CPUs got switched off, or GPUs, and perhaps FPGA;


So how did it manage to do it so far? With basically only 3 or so companies selling asics, 2 of which that may as well be operating from a garden shed (no offense to the skills and devotion of the people in question).  Soon we will have a dozen of providers. Besides, the point is not so much if it will double each month, its were its headed in the short and medium term. 20PH have already been sold and are promised before february. IT doesnt really matter if they get shipped according to an exponential or linear curve. What matter is that/if they will ship.


Nonsense. Sellers are just as likely to convert that back to cash. Last time I checked, TSMC didnt accept bitcoins.


Remains to be seen.  All will depend how fast the best of these asic providers are able to assemble and ship mining rigs. Because that is exactly how fast difficulty will rise and keep rising until we approach 100PH. Price and difficulty are just a result of that execution.

There is a difference. AM ships right away and the customer knows exactly what he will be making at the time he buys the item. BFL didn't ship for over a year. How the hell can customers estimate their ROI on something that will not ship a year down the road?

I am saying exactly that.

I don't agree with putting a 10 day interval. But someone requested it...because that is what it is in actual reality. (I know bcp19, you don't like reality)

And ultimately, yes, I totally agree with your statement. Anything above 50cents per GH/s is not a long term investment.

Sorry, to be the alarm clock, but it is time to wake up. Hash Fast (one example) is already offering miners at $3.50-ish per Gh/s.

BFL is offering the Monarch at about double that.
---------------------------

So don't look so surprised when I actually agree with your statement my friend. .50cents should be close to what a long term invester in BTC is looking for.

So the hosting center isn't going into operation for a year?  I must have missed that.  ::)

I am no hypocrite at the very least.

I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same.

You must have missed them shipping their ASICs in October of 2012 also. Honest Abe.

But yeah, at this point if anyone ordered $10/gh shipping in February, the customer is an idiot.

Totally agreed.

Why should I be surprised that you and I can come to the same conclusions on the same data concerning difficulty and $/hashrate?  I've told several people that the current market is not good for investing in mining equipment.  I knew it wasn't a good investment when I ordered my Jalapeno, but I'm not in this for quick cash, I'm investing in the future.  This is what the 'invest in BTC not equipment' people don't understand.  I've earned not quite 3BTC from my mining efforts over the last 4 motnhs.  I've invested some and played with the market and overall I did well since I am now "worth" well over 10BTC.  Here's the rub though... the BTC I mined is 'play money'.  I don't really care if I win or lose with my investments, so I am a little bolder with them.  If I would have spent cash to get those BTC, I would have never taken half of the investments I did, cause it would have lost the play money aspect of it.  This is why buying equipment is more palatable to me than buying BTC.  My monthly expenses don't change much and I don't have to worry every second of the day whether I am gaining or losing money.

KNC photo's of their first 28nm chips.


How long can BFL hold out before slashing prices? (Only time will tell)

Actually this is lowest $/GH ratio available on ASIC market (excluding other BFL cards). Next one is KNCminer Jupeter with 12,48 $/GH (with preorder for November delivery). If BFL will activate this service even on February - these options are sort of the same by profitability.

BFL is very good at marketing and have great vision of future. Their delivery totally sucks, though. But everything is already foreseen by them.

Soon difficulty will skyrocket with cosmic rates. To keep stable income from BTC mining - one should buy new devices every month (and $/GH ratio will drop a lot in future to keep buyers, so amount of bought devices per month will grow). Does anybody want to have hundreds of devices in his room, and maintain all this stuff? Nope. Its much easier to buy mining contact - pay money and receive mining power instantly, without shipping and device setup and etc.. Plus, this is better for ASIC producer too - they do not need to process all these orders with shipping and packing. Just receive chips from manufacture, assemble on board, plug board into server rack.
Soon ASIC producing companies will start to switch to this contract delivery model. They must be stupid to leave this opportunity. And BFL does this now not because they have technology, but just to establish themselves as general provider of such service. Real result will be provided by them in two weeks after publicly announced date ;).
Its just their work model - promise thing that will be demanded in future, collect invests, promise, deliver when its not relevant anymore.
It looks totally promising, just don't invest anything until you will see that this service is online.

http://cointerra.com/ $3/gh shipping January

And the march towards 50 cent per Gh/s has started....

Makes you realize that BFL just took a dump in front of their customers and called it "liquid gold"...

Growth rate is going to continue to skyrocket until the cost of electricity becomes significant.

Bitfury, 400 GH/s at 300 watts.

Current Difficulty = 112628548 roughly 1 PH/s
Daily income  = $223
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Difficulty at roughly 54 PH/s
Daily income  = $4.13
Daily electricity at $.10/kwh = $.72

Even at 54 PH/s, electricity costs are only 17% for a lot of miners. That's still a profit of $100/mo, so reasonably prices ASICs will still sell at that difficulty. ASIC prices are going to keep plummeting, and the network is going to blow past 54 PH/s. Easily.

Thats a spectacularly stupid reason to buy mining hardware... (or lease hashrate). "to keep mining income stable". Really?
Any sane person would invest in mining equipment if/when if he sees an opportunity for it to be most likely profitable,  but apparently if your profitability goes out of the window, your solution is constantly doubling down ?
That will end well!
For BFL that is, they will soon sell out that datacenter.

True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people.  That my friend IS a hypocrite.

Asicminer is fleecing people with honesty.
BFL is fleecing people with dishonesty.

Subtle but significant difference.

That is called perception, you still have not shown proof.

Proof? How about "Tape out August 2013"? Think that's the truth? How about "That 65nm ASIC chip is now powering the majority of the bitcoin network."? Is that the truth? Those are from their current website.

Proof?

http://speakfearlessly.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/you-cant-handle-the-truth-meme-generator-you-want-the-truth-you-can-t-handle-the-truth-9789dd.jpg

Your reasoning is sound, except I am not sure bitfury's could still be produced at a reasonable margin that corresponds to a market price in a 50+PH network. Miners may still want to increase their hashrate, but bitfury wouldnt be able to sell them cheap enough (unless miners would get a multi year investment horizon).

Instead, I used hashfast's chip to calculate the endgame. Spreadsheet can be found here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=295270.msg3165331#msg3165331

Depending on electricity cost and other assumptions, you will end up somewhere between 80 and 800PH.

On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true.  Just cause times have changed you're demanding they change along with it.  Yet I don't see you tracking down the hundreds of other companies that have made claims that are now not true due to time and change.  Until I see your righteous anger directed at more than 1 company, you are just like yip-yip... a noise a tiny dog makes.

Right, Bitfury isn't endgame. It's just the best that's currently available. Better stuff will come along.

But we have the numbers for hashfast, allowing decent calculation for production cost and power effiency . Those specs may or may not be representative of other 28nm designs, but closer than bitfurry at least.

Anyway, no disagreement we will blast past 54PH:

http://snag.gy/15E5o.jpg

That "as of Aug 19th" isn't on the webpage. How is a regular customer supposed to know those statements are no long applicable? By leaving deceptive statements on the web page, something that may have been true once before is now simply dishonest.


You can thank Josh for being such a great PR person. He just inspires me.

This may be their lowest, but after this i really really want to see their next move. Any bets?

Didn't you know, they're taking over Laz's refund offering business so they can get paid for refunding people money.

You care so much about the customers of 1 company and disregard the millions of other people being taken in regularly by all the other companies following the same practices.  Your compassion definitely has limits.

Or our time online is finite.

If you want me to [attempt to] cripple companies left and right, i'll need a long crow bar to start Tonya Harding' everyone like a war path.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonya_Harding#Attack_on_Nancy_Kerrigan

I'm the kind of guy that likes factual evidence, could you point out to me where BFL proved with mathematics and not word games that this statement was true when released please?

You see when I see Josh saying things like (and I am paraphrasing here) well no one else is shipping so obviously we account for the majority of current hash rate I don't see proof.  What I see is someone who is taking credit for all that hash rate yet provided specious reasoning as proof.  Now if BFL had come out and said we have shipped x jally, x LS's, x singles and x mini rigs then we could have undeniable proof that they provided at the time the majority of network hash rate.

It is certainly possible the statement was in fact correct but by not providing proof and by making specious assumptions I feel it's not fair to make a blanket statement like that.  Even if it was worded as an estimation (which it wasn't it was stated as a fact) I still wouldn't believe it, BFL has failed at essentially every public estimate they have made.  It is crystal clear in my mind no one a that company has any estimating or forecasting skills at all.

You are way off.

First, Cointerra is MUCH cheaper at about $3/GH/s. That's a factor of more than 3!

HashFast second batch is cheaper too at $8.75/GH/s and they are supposed to deliver in November!

I'm not sure what would make you think that?  ???

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/4974-so-lets-take-look-history-some-delivery-dates-predictions-bfl.html

Oh. Ok.

So where do you stand on BFL now?  I agree with you that AM was fleecing people.

Bfl's image of incompetence has been carefully cultivated and serves as great cover for their massive theft.

In regards to this, I think they are overpriced for me, but they have not reached the level of AM as yet since AM's had 0% chance of positive RoI starting day 1 of their USB's.  Before the cries start, consider this: no power costs.  My Jalapeno will use ~30 watts of power for 5GH.  252.8kw for 1 year.  $25.58 at .10/KW

Using http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/d9fe520f0d which I feel is a fair outlook for Jan, make Sept 2013 = Jan 2014 and you can see these is a chance for positive RoI using a 10% increase monthly.  If you are pessimistc enough to use 20% it still takes less than a year to break even, while at 25% takes over a year.  I personally don't see us at 60+PH by Jan 2015, unless the value of BTC hits new highs or someone creates $1/TH chips.

MADNESS!

To be fair, you cant just compare hardware cost with a hosted solution. Put that cointerra in a datacenter with electrcity/cooling/monitoring/redudant everything included for a year, and you end up paying a lot more than $3/GH/year too.

10%? Per month? What a joke.

Sure, I was just responding to the person that said this was the cheapest hardware out there right now.

You think I am joking?  10% would be roughly an additional 800TH in Jan, 880TH in Feb, 968TH in Mar, 1065TH in April, 1172TH in May.... To give you a clearer picture, that's starting from ~7-8 times the current hashrate and then adding the current hashrate to it monthly to start with.  While the monthly rate is high now, it cannot sustain that rate indefinitely.  I'm looking at realistic projections given the current estimates of all companies.

Simple solution: Never send money to someone until they have a product in stock.

Now they are selling hashing power....https://products.butterflylabs.com/homepage-new-products/1-gh-cloud-hosted-bitcoin-hashing-power.html

Late to the party? Did you skip to the end of the thread?

Pumping out 800 TH/s in Jan is going to be easy. That's only a few thousand chips.

Even at $3 per GH that's over $2.4million.  You honestly think people will spend $2.4M in Jan, $2.64M in Feb, $2.904M in Mar, $3.1944M in Apr?

3600 btc/day * 30 days * $130/btc = $14million revenue. So yeah, $3million per month is going to be cake.

haha yea :)

OMG they took seriously my post:

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/4737-when-will-bfl-stop-producing-useless-hardware.html#post56467

(predicted by me 12 days ago)

If your going to give them anymore ideas can you perhaps suggest refunding peoples money...

Damn you Pt0x cloudf#cking, really what next.   :o

Maybe he should suggest an offshore BTC lottery scam site as BFL's next offering. 

I'm sure they read this: http://thegenesisblock.com/op-ed-bitcoin-minings-inevitable-centralized-future/

You forgot to consider power costs.  Using the absolute best power/GH of .7 you'd need ~40.32 gigawatts of power per month or $4.032million minimum at a mere $.10/kw.  Since these aren't even supposed to be out until January let's look at what will be out.  If you use D&T's estimates and average, you get ~2.1W/GH or ~$8.4million at $.10/kw.  Many people have much worse power costs, but still, you expect ~50% of 'profits' to be immediately used to buy more equipment monthly?

My miners are already running power/GH of .75 at $.02/kw energy today. I expect to have something significantly better by 2014.


If you're mining at 2.1 W/GH and $.10/kw, your days are numbered. The rest of us will leave you behind.

Or have never missed their shipping dates...

Psst! I think most would point to the fun has left the building after GPU's got killed off.

Thats where you get it fundamentally wrong. A few thousand more chips is a few tens of thousands more dollars in production cost, be it today or in 6 months or 12 months. Yes, someone will spend that kind of money (and lots more) to be able to sell it at a profit, even if that profit will diminish month after month and will be no where near were it is today.

As long as the market price per GH is well above production cost (likely <$0.1 per GH for the asic) more chips will be produced and added to the network. The price of this chips isnt set, its merely a result of demand, ie, their perceived profitability to the miner.

- it is  2016 blocks * 25BTC / 11 days = 4500 BTC/day at current difficulty increase. Or 4500 * 30 * $130/BTC = $17.5million/month.

You can argue that, but be aware that you are implicitly assuming an inflow of extra fiat to maintain that btc exchange rate.
The more blocks are mined per month due to the speed of growth of the network, the more inflation we have and the more fresh fiat needs to flow in to exchanges to maintain that constant btc price.

Speaking of moving, bcp19 and I could easier win that bet. You see, they have this trailer currently being used to burn in units...

Could you at least make sure the links work when you provide them?


I didn't know BFL had a graveyard shift, but obviously the site's being work on now.

- current bitcoin inflation is BTC4500 * 365 / BTC11.7millions ever mined = 14% per year. Not so big.

Still requires >$200M extra in fiat to maintain its value. Not so small either.

For what it's worth, BFL is expanding their data center locations: http://staysecuresolutions.com/data-center-overview/


https://products.butterflylabs.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/d/c/dcenter2_1.jpg