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Economy => Economics => Topic started by: herzmeister on September 19, 2013, 02:22:53 PM



Title: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: herzmeister on September 19, 2013, 02:22:53 PM
So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?

Planning to buy some property to live on but I'm not sure if I should do this in my own country (Germany).


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: countryfree on September 19, 2013, 06:12:00 PM
There are plenty of them! It's actually part of my job to pinpoint them. But you have to consider what you want to do with your money. Do you just want to buy a nice place to live, or do you want to make an investment with the reasonable expectation that you will make a profit when you will want to sell?

There's not much of real estate a bubble in Germany. Save for Munich and Frankfurt, I regard most of that country as affordable and steady, in complete opposition to wild places like London or Monaco. Romania is even steadier, many cheap houses in the countryside, but would you like it?


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: EvilPanda on September 19, 2013, 06:18:57 PM
In Poland land is dirt cheap because of the large emigration and unemployment. I heard a lot of germans buy properties here, especially on the coast, to use as summer residences.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: desired_username on September 19, 2013, 08:38:38 PM
Check out Hungary too. Dirt cheap properties country wide. The capital has the most to offer for investors but you can always find some gems especially on the west side of the country.

Romania is a good bet too.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Buffer Overflow on September 20, 2013, 12:54:52 PM
Land and properties are dirt cheap in Chernobyl.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: niothor on September 20, 2013, 02:02:16 PM
Check out Hungary too. Dirt cheap properties country wide. The capital has the most to offer for investors but you can always find some gems especially on the west side of the country.

Romania is a good bet too.


Are you joking ?


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: BombaUcigasa on September 20, 2013, 09:05:31 PM
Romania is a good bet too.
Not really, we had ours in 2008, better luck in 50 years!


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Pumpkin on September 20, 2013, 10:06:35 PM
When you say real estate is cheap do you measure that against 2008 bubble or against historical prices? Real estate is very expensive compared to historical prices (measured in average income) all around the world. Blame fiat currency!


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: EvilPanda on September 21, 2013, 02:51:54 PM
The autor said he's from Germany so if you consider their prices eastern Europe can be called cheap. As for me, I tend to compare prices to the average salary. If you can buy a piece of land for the price of a decent PC or a 2 months salary it's dirt cheap  ;)


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: murraypaul on September 21, 2013, 03:15:13 PM
When you say real estate is cheap do you measure that against 2008 bubble or against historical prices? Real estate is very expensive compared to historical prices (measured in average income) all around the world. Blame fiat currency!

Blame the fact that world population is increasing, and world land size is not.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: countryfree on September 23, 2013, 10:38:51 PM
When you say real estate is cheap do you measure that against 2008 bubble or against historical prices? Real estate is very expensive compared to historical prices (measured in average income) all around the world. Blame fiat currency!

Blame the fact that world population is increasing, and world land size is not.

You should move to Russia, its population is decreasing.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Endgame on September 24, 2013, 12:09:55 PM
There is some nice waterfront places going for cheap at fukushima.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: xxjs on September 24, 2013, 01:07:12 PM
I suppose you need a country where a bubble has recently burts. Check out Spain.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: niothor on September 24, 2013, 01:38:47 PM
There is some nice waterfront places going for cheap at fukushima.

And for a countryside residence with magical pink wild boars and three legged rabbits I suggest Chernobyl.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: gica_contra on September 24, 2013, 04:42:26 PM
damn it, the first rule of pink boars is that you don't talk about them. thanks for ruining it for the rest of us...


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Keldel on September 24, 2013, 08:48:01 PM
I suppose you need a country where a bubble has recently burts. Check out Spain.

Are you sure the bubble in Spain has already burst? If so, why are the insolvent banks still there?


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Buffer Overflow on September 24, 2013, 08:51:40 PM
I suppose you need a country where a bubble has recently burts. Check out Spain.

Are you sure the bubble in Spain has already burst? If so, why are the insolvent banks still there?

Bailed out.

Spain is bankrupt. That's why they didn't get the 2020 olympics.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: xxjs on September 24, 2013, 09:14:14 PM
I suppose you need a country where a bubble has recently burts. Check out Spain.

Are you sure the bubble in Spain has already burst? If so, why are the insolvent banks still there?

The banks have not cleared the losses, which is a huge problem, but the prices are down.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: 01BTC10 on September 27, 2013, 10:13:37 PM
Antarctica


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: edmundedgar on September 28, 2013, 02:41:52 AM
There is some nice waterfront places going for cheap at fukushima.

Oddly although property across whole of Fukushima prefecture, like the rest of rural Japan, has been on a steady downward slide for the last 20 years as people move to the cities:
http://land.color-me.jp/LandMakers/index/7/

...if you look at the towns that got part-evacuated the land prices seem to have perked up a touch since the accident.
http://land.color-me.jp/LandMakers/City/07212/

Maybe jobs and industry related to the clean-up?


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: jubalix on September 28, 2013, 12:45:13 PM
It goes from bad to worse in Australia.

Sydney just going up again, the most it ever fell was about 1-2% per year if that, then goes up 10% a year, 5% a year....it just never stops


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: theonewhowaskazu on September 29, 2013, 07:01:35 PM
I love this. When its a non-inflationary asset like real-estate, gold, Bitcoin, or sorta-maybe stocks, a price increase = bubble.
When its a consumable like food, price increase = inflation.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: murraypaul on September 29, 2013, 10:35:53 PM
I love this. When its a non-inflationary asset like real-estate, gold, Bitcoin, or sorta-maybe stocks, a price increase = bubble.
When its a consumable like food, price increase = inflation.

You've answered your own question.
Consumables don't form bubbles (except in times of hoarding), because they are consumed, not resold.
A bubble occurs when an asset is bought, not for its inherent value or utility, but purely for the belief that it can later be resold at a profit to another buyer.
Eventually the market runs out of buyers at the ultimate elevated price, and the bubble bursts.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: jubalix on September 30, 2013, 07:17:54 PM
I love this. When its a non-inflationary asset like real-estate, gold, Bitcoin, or sorta-maybe stocks, a price increase = bubble.
When its a consumable like food, price increase = inflation.

You've answered your own question.
Consumables don't form bubbles (except in times of hoarding), because they are consumed, not resold.
A bubble occurs when an asset is bought, not for its inherent value or utility, but purely for the belief that it can later be resold at a profit to another buyer.
Eventually the market runs out of buyers at the ultimate elevated price, and the bubble bursts.


but only if the buyers sell at a lower price than they purchased + normal inflation, they can bust hold, so the "bubble" does no burst those prices become the new normal.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: dragonkid on September 30, 2013, 07:20:52 PM
So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?

Planning to buy some property to live on but I'm not sure if I should do this in my own country (Germany).

I think the north pole don't have a real estate bubble. I am not sure if Germany have any land in the north pole.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: herzmeister on September 30, 2013, 07:41:29 PM
I think the north pole don't have a real estate bubble. I am not sure if Germany have any land in the north pole.

No, but at the South Pole (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Swabia), apparently.   :o


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: murraypaul on September 30, 2013, 10:49:37 PM
but only if the buyers sell at a lower price than they purchased + normal inflation, they can bust hold, so the "bubble" does no burst those prices become the new normal.

If they bought with their own money, yes.
But another characteristic of a bubble is that past a certain point it becomes widely known, and everyone starts jumping in.
And some of them don't have enough capital of their own, so they borrow it.
And some don't have enough income to pay the full mortgage cost, so you get houses bought on interest-only mortgages, or houses bought as buy-to-let.
When the interest rates get too high, or the saturation of rental properties means that you can't keep the property fully occupied, then you find you can't make the mortgage payments, and have to sell at a loss.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Taras on October 01, 2013, 01:11:53 AM
Antarctica
This.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: jubalix on October 01, 2013, 09:15:37 AM
but only if the buyers sell at a lower price than they purchased + normal inflation, they can bust hold, so the "bubble" does no burst those prices become the new normal.

If they bought with their own money, yes.
But another characteristic of a bubble is that past a certain point it becomes widely known, and everyone starts jumping in.
And some of them don't have enough capital of their own, so they borrow it.
And some don't have enough income to pay the full mortgage cost, so you get houses bought on interest-only mortgages, or houses bought as buy-to-let.
When the interest rates get too high, or the saturation of rental properties means that you can't keep the property fully occupied, then you find you can't make the mortgage payments, and have to sell at a loss.


well no, not in Australia,

when the interest rates get to high, the gov makes the banks find other arrangements. Beyond a small percentage the gov will not allow/can not survive wide scale repossessions.

then there is negative gearing, and

taxation that feeds through in to centrelink/social services the guarantees the bottom part of the market and support st he rest

Their is no capital gains tax on your family house when you sell

It is far more costly to have people on the street and an empt house en masse..


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 01, 2013, 09:27:10 AM
I'll go to Spain soon. I saw a documentary saying that some price went down to 60% of the value.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: murraypaul on October 01, 2013, 11:51:46 AM
well no, not in Australia,

Not yet.
But Australian houses are historically overvalued, and indeed are starting to fall.

http://images.businessday.com.au/2012/07/03/3424181/hp3.jpg?symb=XJO

Indeed they are dropping back to the long term trend, and that drop will overshoot, as it always does.

http://www.harvestgroup.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Aust-House-price-above-LT-trend-July-20125-600x240.png

If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 02, 2013, 05:09:44 AM
If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.

Depending on how you think about it, they almost can. To prevent a downward correction, they can just print loads more money boosting their fiat-denominated value to where it was pre-correction. To prevent an upward correction, they can just raise property tax.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 02, 2013, 07:16:16 AM
If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.
Depending on how you think about it, they almost can. To prevent a downward correction, they can just print loads more money boosting their fiat-denominated value to where it was pre-correction. To prevent an upward correction, they can just raise property tax.

That's why ultimately, fiat money have no value.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: theonewhowaskazu on October 02, 2013, 02:45:22 PM
If there is anything we should have learned by now is that government action cannot ultimately prevent market corrections.
Depending on how you think about it, they almost can. To prevent a downward correction, they can just print loads more money boosting their fiat-denominated value to where it was pre-correction. To prevent an upward correction, they can just raise property tax.

That's why ultimately, fiat money have no value.

Exactly. The way the government can prevent a correction is by effectively taking money from those that participate in the correction. If the natural correction would be downward, the government inflates money, devaluing the money of whoever would sell. If the natural correction would be upward, the government  taxes the land, devaluing the investment of whoever would buy. So much for free market.

It is for this reason that I believe that naturally a value added tax would actually be one of the more fair forms of taxation, depending on the way it is implemented. Most other forms of taxation serve to force the public into a situation that isn't a natural market condition. VAT, or at least, the concept behind it, is somewhat neutral in that respect.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: manfred on October 09, 2013, 06:17:08 PM
Depending what you want to buy, but Ukraine would have to be considered. China just bought 5% of total Ukrainian land, its about the size of Massachusetts.

http://www.channel4.com/news/china-ukraine-farmland-food-security-investment-overseas (http://www.channel4.com/news/china-ukraine-farmland-food-security-investment-overseas)


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: manfred on October 09, 2013, 07:39:36 PM
Spain. It has had its price crash. Buy foreclosed real estate directly from the banks. They will accept offers below the asking price.

Spain also has the advantage that there are parts with a pleasant climate, coastal views and great beaches.

I would watch out for future taxes though. Spain recently required its tax cattle to declare all their assets (property, stocks, etc). For now there is no extra tax levied on those assets, but why do you think they are collecting the data now?
The question is not if Spain breaks up, but when. Catalonia is the first region, others will follow, which means real estate prices have potential to really fall.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: pand70 on October 09, 2013, 07:50:50 PM
I don't understand.
The OP is looking for a country with a real estate bubble or not?
And if he wants a house to live in (not to invest in real estate) why the bubble matters?
 ???


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 10, 2013, 10:15:58 AM
I don't understand.
The OP is looking for a country with a real estate bubble or not?
And if he wants a house to live in (not to invest in real estate) why the bubble matters?
 ???

The bubble matter because you want to buy after it exploded.

You don't need to own the house/flat you live in, you can rent (to someone) some houses/flats that you previously bought after a bubble exploded and use this income to rent and live anywhere you want. This allow you to live in a place with a big bubble estate without getting fucked when it burst.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Johnny Bitcoinseed on October 10, 2013, 11:59:35 AM
I've heard good things about Chile - plus the southern hemisphere is less exposed to radiation from nuclear power plants (think of the US west coast and Japan) and potential nuclear war and all that good stuff.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: niothor on October 10, 2013, 12:37:26 PM
I've heard good things about Chile - plus the southern hemisphere is less exposed to radiation from nuclear power plants (think of the US west coast and Japan) and potential nuclear war and all that good stuff.

and all that "good" stuff Chile is away from includes earthquakes?


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Johnny Bitcoinseed on October 10, 2013, 12:48:14 PM
I'd take the risk of earthquake over Fukushima any day.

Besides, Chile is no more risky on the earthquake measure than our friends daily face in Alaska, California, and other areas.  Think of the great San Francisco earthquake, for example.  Chile woulda looked like a mighty good place to be on that day!


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: niothor on October 10, 2013, 01:05:03 PM
I'd take the risk of earthquake over Fukushima any day.

Besides, Chile is no more risky on the earthquake measure than our friends daily face in Alaska, California, and other areas.  Think of the great San Francisco earthquake, for example.  Chile woulda looked like a mighty good place to be on that day!

Wikipedia > Earthquakes by country > Count the deaths > Come back and say it again


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 10, 2013, 01:33:59 PM
I'd take the risk of earthquake over Fukushima any day.

Besides, Chile is no more risky on the earthquake measure than our friends daily face in Alaska, California, and other areas.  Think of the great San Francisco earthquake, for example.  Chile woulda looked like a mighty good place to be on that day!

Wikipedia > Earthquakes by country > Count the deaths > Come back and say it again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Earthquakes_by_country
What does this page suppose to mean ?


It doesn't change the fact that you can live in an area after an earthquake but not after a nuclear disaster.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: niothor on October 10, 2013, 01:37:28 PM
I'd take the risk of earthquake over Fukushima any day.

Besides, Chile is no more risky on the earthquake measure than our friends daily face in Alaska, California, and other areas.  Think of the great San Francisco earthquake, for example.  Chile woulda looked like a mighty good place to be on that day!

Wikipedia > Earthquakes by country > Count the deaths > Come back and say it again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Earthquakes_by_country
What does this page suppose to mean ?



Just a measure to compare the number of deaths in the Us vs Chile


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 10, 2013, 02:00:43 PM
I'd take the risk of earthquake over Fukushima any day.
Besides, Chile is no more risky on the earthquake measure than our friends daily face in Alaska, California, and other areas.  Think of the great San Francisco earthquake, for example.  Chile woulda looked like a mighty good place to be on that day!
Wikipedia > Earthquakes by country > Count the deaths > Come back and say it again
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Earthquakes_by_country
What does this page suppose to mean ?
Just a measure to compare the number of deaths in the Us vs Chile

It's not a significant measure, to compare you must include the ratio of inhabitant per km² and the fact that a earthquake can happen almost anywhere in the world despite the datas. Moreover, when an earthquake happen in an area we don't expect it, it is way more deadly because human are not prepared.

Anyway that's not the subject.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Corelianer on October 10, 2013, 02:05:40 PM
I'd take the risk of earthquake over Fukushima any day.

Besides, Chile is no more risky on the earthquake measure than our friends daily face in Alaska, California, and other areas.  Think of the great San Francisco earthquake, for example.  Chile woulda looked like a mighty good place to be on that day!

Wikipedia > Earthquakes by country > Count the deaths > Come back and say it again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Earthquakes_by_country
What does this page suppose to mean ?



Just a measure to compare the number of deaths in the Us vs Chile

This page shows the number of subpages, not the number of deaths.

Better check this out: "World earthquake map captures every rumble since 1898"

http://strangesounds.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/earthquake-world-map-120628.jpg

And this: "61 years of Tornado tracks"
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/07/03/article-0-13E6F7CE000005DC-627_964x532.jpg


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 10, 2013, 03:16:36 PM
This page shows the number of subpages, not the number of deaths.
Better check this out: "World earthquake map captures every rumble since 1898"
http://strangesounds.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/earthquake-world-map-120628.jpg
And this: "61 years of Tornado tracks"
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/07/03/article-0-13E6F7CE000005DC-627_964x532.jpg


Amazing...


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: pand70 on October 10, 2013, 08:43:13 PM
I don't understand.
The OP is looking for a country with a real estate bubble or not?
And if he wants a house to live in (not to invest in real estate) why the bubble matters?
 ???

The bubble matter because you want to buy after it exploded.

You don't need to own the house/flat you live in, you can rent (to someone) some houses/flats that you previously bought after a bubble exploded and use this income to rent and live anywhere you want.

OP says he wants to buy a property to live on...


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: halfawake on October 12, 2013, 05:54:09 AM
Canada actually managed their banking system well enough that they dodged the whole real estate bubble thing that we had here in the states.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: manfred on October 12, 2013, 07:20:36 PM
Quote
So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
No, even in Myanmar (Burma) the house prices are out of control.
Now what you think is the most expensive capital in the world London, Moscow, no far of its Luanda.
Yes thats right the capital of Angola. A one-bedroom apartment  in the city centre costs £7,500 ($ 12000) a month to rent. ???
 
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183616/Luanda-The-capital-Angola-expensive-city-world.html


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 14, 2013, 07:43:26 AM
Quote
So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
No, even in Myanmar (Burma) the house prices are out of control.
Now what you think is the most expensive capital in the world London, Moscow, no far of its Luanda.
Yes thats right the capital of Angola. A one-bedroom apartment  in the city centre costs £7,500 ($ 12000) a month to rent. ???
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2183616/Luanda-The-capital-Angola-expensive-city-world.html

Wow... Luanda is crazy but the country has a huge growing economy.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Malawi on October 14, 2013, 01:07:21 PM
I think Albania has a lot of potential. I do not know property prices there, but it is a low-cost country. If the politics/economy gets on track, it may become a mayor tourist destination, as it's nicely situated by the Mediterranean.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: superresistant on October 14, 2013, 01:26:13 PM
I think Albania has a lot of potential. I do not know property prices there, but it is a low-cost country. If the politics/economy gets on track, it may become a mayor tourist destination, as it's nicely situated by the Mediterranean.

Most of Eastern Europe country are low cost but the corruption is insane :
Less than 300€ average salary, huge Hummer/Mercedes everywhere, spot the problem...


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: Hfleer on October 15, 2013, 05:40:54 PM
Prices have been on the rise for a while after something of a crash around here.  I wonder how current prices compare to the peak.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: manfred on October 15, 2013, 07:16:50 PM
Prices have been on the rise for a while after something of a crash around here.  I wonder how current prices compare to the peak.
I am moving soon to here to, love the Caribbean flair.


Title: Re: So... is there any country left without a real estate bubble?
Post by: applelover on October 19, 2013, 02:23:26 AM
santa cruz bolivia.  goodluck  dealing with the communist populist government though.