Bitcoin Forum

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/op-ed-bitcoin-not-bubble-its-s-curve-and-its-just-getting-started/

This makes sense if you care to read. One possibility is btc is in an scurve at this point in its adoption and people's awareness of its potential. Check it out if you care to and let me know if it makes sense to u

its actually both...

depending on what your looking at.

if your only looking at the HIGH price of a given time. its a bubble.. the speculative hype and air which can inflate prices aswell as burst prices,
.. like a bubble.

but if you chart the data and draw a line along the LOWEST prices long term you will see the true value. the part that no one is
stupid to sell below.

think of the long term lowest line as a water line in a bath.. its a point of resistance.. anything above that is speculative hot air that fluctuates (grows and pops)

we are still in the first decade of a many decade life of the coin. which based on things like coin supply (block halving events) and population saturation will  have the waterline in a S curve.. and then variable amounts ontop for the speculative bubble

anyway here is an image for the younger generation that can only understand images

https://i.imgur.com/b1KAjTt.png

That's a really great article.  I like it when the authors back their ideas up with facts and historical data.  I mean, I know it based largely on his interpretation, but it is a well backed opinion.  Also, I found that graph about the adoption of technology to be fascinating.  It would be interesting to see where bitcoin currently falls on that graph and plot it over the coming years, but since that chart is US only, and there is no way to tell in which countries the wallets are owned, it would be difficult.  

I'm also partial to the theory that Bitcoin represents an adoption S-curve (like cell phones or the internet).

Even if it is, it should be noted that not all S-curves are created equally. Adoption of VCRs followed the same curve, but instead of plateauing like electricity and refrigerators, adoption sharply declined from the top due to technology innovation (DVD, Blu-Ray, internet streaming) and FCC regulation. In other words, when a technology S-curve becomes mature, there is opportunity for competitors to disrupt the market. In regards to Bitcoin, the competitor could be a different cryptocurrency or it could be a novel alternative to blockchains that solves third party trust, double spending, smart contracts, etc.

So, while I think Bitcoin is eventually headed to $1 million and beyond, it's always prudent to be aware of the markets and social trends since its value is tied to its network size and utility.