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Title: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: mike678 on July 19, 2011, 06:57:34 PM I've taken my data from here http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash/2016 and I recorded the ammount of days between difficulty changes starting May 26 to now.
Thu, 26 May 2011 18:41:56 GMT 11 days till increase Mon, 06 Jun 2011 12:25:05 GMT 9 days till increase Wed, 15 Jun 2011 13:49:34 GMT 9 days till increase Fri, 24 Jun 2011 11:45:23 GMT 12 days till increase Wed, 06 Jul 2011 20:35:46 GMT 13 days till increase Tues, 19 Jul 2011 As you can see from that information the difficulty changed the fastest in mid June and now is slowly moving towards the 14 day goal. Unless I'm mistaken the difficulty for the most part is stabilizing and by august we will have extremely low increases. This of course will only holds true as long as the price doesn't sky rocket. I'd like to hear what others think about this. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: NetTecture on July 19, 2011, 07:13:16 PM Time to invest ;)
Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: mike678 on July 19, 2011, 07:14:54 PM Time to invest ;) As true as this might be don't >.< I want a static difficulty lolTitle: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: SgtSpike on July 19, 2011, 07:26:58 PM Aside from someone randomly bringing a TH/s or two online right in the middle of it, I'd say difficulty is definitely stabilizing.
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-small-lin-2k.png Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: mike678 on July 19, 2011, 07:30:56 PM New difficulty is in: 1690906
Thats only about an 8% increase so not too bad. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: talldude on July 19, 2011, 08:21:42 PM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity.
Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: bcpokey on July 19, 2011, 10:40:04 PM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity. Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though. I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: SgtSpike on July 19, 2011, 11:12:26 PM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity. Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though. I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent. Theoretically, you could buy hardware and still have it pay for itself in a few months, which is still an extremely good ROI, but you can't count on those future profits anymore, unless you're a risk-taker. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: NetTecture on July 19, 2011, 11:12:59 PM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity. Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though. I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent. Tell me that ;) Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan ;) Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: SgtSpike on July 19, 2011, 11:25:44 PM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity. Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though. I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent. Tell me that ;) Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan ;) Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: NetTecture on July 19, 2011, 11:33:36 PM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity. Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though. I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent. Tell me that ;) Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan ;) Only at 1000 USD per gigahash ;) it is about right due to infrastructure overhead ;) Which is significant - we are still not finished planning, but it looks like we have space for if we are lucky 8 cooling clusters of 8 racks each (they will form a semi-tower with blowout fans on the roof sucking the air out from the center) with up to 16 computers per rack. All theoretical - we are not clear totally yet about maneurecing room and the electrician has to approove power densities ;) If that does not make money I am turning int o a large seller of used graphics cards. There are also some tax issues with depreciation - may have to change my companies legal form and go fully balance sheet,and not income / expense, otherwise there is a limit on depreciable assets I am allowed to write off. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: sven on July 20, 2011, 12:05:56 AM we only had these huge difficulty jumps due sudden media attention and the following price of 30$ per bitcoin
Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: bcpokey on July 20, 2011, 12:40:18 AM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity. Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though. I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent. Tell me that ;) Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan ;) Only at 1000 USD per gigahash ;) it is about right due to infrastructure overhead ;) Which is significant - we are still not finished planning, but it looks like we have space for if we are lucky 8 cooling clusters of 8 racks each (they will form a semi-tower with blowout fans on the roof sucking the air out from the center) with up to 16 computers per rack. All theoretical - we are not clear totally yet about maneurecing room and the electrician has to approove power densities ;) If that does not make money I am turning int o a large seller of used graphics cards. There are also some tax issues with depreciation - may have to change my companies legal form and go fully balance sheet,and not income / expense, otherwise there is a limit on depreciable assets I am allowed to write off. I consider you the exception, not the norm. However I honestly would love to have done what you did, but I'm not in a location or position to do so right at the moment. Timing can be a bish sometimes. Kudos to you though for jumping in head first. If it pays off you will have a nice little cash cow on your hands :) Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: SgtSpike on July 20, 2011, 05:38:48 AM seeing as how the last few jumps were on the order of 40-50%, this is a welcome change. It also tells us that expected mining profitability is quite low, but still positive as people are bringing some added capacity. Well, at current bitcoin prices, mining profitability is quite high. So if what you say is true either people are betting on big price drops (in which case they're also betting on bitcoin failing) or this is a retraction as people feel the sting of their gold-rush calculations biting them in the butt after the drop from $32 to $14. Those aren't really well thought out analyses though. I'm guessing people are just adding more cautiously now, instead of sinking $10,000 - $40,000 at a time, as fast as possible, as recklessly as possible, expecting to have money rain down on you, people are looking for efficient building and taking it slow so as not to lose their families if things turn sour. This is prudent. Tell me that ;) Just approoved a 75k USD purchase plan ;) Only at 1000 USD per gigahash ;) it is about right due to infrastructure overhead ;) Which is significant - we are still not finished planning, but it looks like we have space for if we are lucky 8 cooling clusters of 8 racks each (they will form a semi-tower with blowout fans on the roof sucking the air out from the center) with up to 16 computers per rack. All theoretical - we are not clear totally yet about maneurecing room and the electrician has to approove power densities ;) If that does not make money I am turning int o a large seller of used graphics cards. There are also some tax issues with depreciation - may have to change my companies legal form and go fully balance sheet,and not income / expense, otherwise there is a limit on depreciable assets I am allowed to write off. I'd still do it in a heartbeat if I had the extra money. :) Good luck with the venture. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: AngelusWebDesign on July 20, 2011, 05:55:01 AM The real question is --
For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else? I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful. He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary. But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures. The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*. After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore. I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun! Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: SgtSpike on July 20, 2011, 06:00:18 AM The real question is -- I dare you to find a better investment (risk not included) than bitcoin mining, even at this stage of the game. 100% ROI in a matter of months? That's virtually unheard of in the business world.For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else? I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful. He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary. But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures. The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*. After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore. I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun! Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: Bitcoin_Silver_Supply on July 20, 2011, 06:04:28 AM The real question is -- For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else? I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful. He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary. But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures. The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*. After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore. I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun! What happened to the "difficulty will rise 50% over and over until the sea levels rise and the taps pour blood and the white horsemen arrive" predictions, Angelus? Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: AngelusWebDesign on July 20, 2011, 06:04:37 AM If it's true that a return on investment can be counted on within, say, 6 months -- then it logically follows that there will be a lot more entrepreneurs getting into the game in the coming months. NetTecture is only the vanguard.
Until Bitcoin mining reaches a parity with other business ventures (risk, payoff potential, capital and labor requirements, etc.), mining businesses will continue to sprout up like mushrooms. We haven't seen the end of network expansion yet. Not even close. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: AngelusWebDesign on July 20, 2011, 06:06:42 AM The real question is -- For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else? I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful. He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary. But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures. The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*. After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore. I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun! What happened to the "difficulty will rise 50% over and over until the sea levels rise and the taps pour blood and the white horsemen arrive" predictions, Angelus? 5 BTC right now from my wallet to yours if you can find the quote where I said that (and I'm not talking about the white horseman part, either -- just predictions of difficulty reaching 10 million, etc.) Because that was someone else, not me. Sorry. All I said (weeks ago) was that many people were making monthly (if not yearly) profit projections, and were not taking difficulty calculations into account. That is foolish. Others apparently have been much more simplistic in their predictions of difficulty. You seem to have me confused with them. Peoples memories can be very fuzzy. Especially when their reading comprehension is fuzzy to begin with. Matthew Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: AngelusWebDesign on July 20, 2011, 06:09:37 AM tl;dr (for the young'uns) -- I'm not here to defend predictions I never made. It's not my fault some people trust the lies and name-calling that passes for criticism on this forum.
Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: 1.21gigawatts on July 20, 2011, 07:11:52 AM wow you're still talking Anusgelus? No one pays any attention to you here anymore
Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: Bitcoin_Silver_Supply on July 20, 2011, 08:33:30 AM 5 BTC right now from my wallet to yours if you can find the quote where I said that (and I'm not talking about the white horseman part, either -- just predictions of difficulty reaching 10 million, etc.) I didn't say you called for 10 million, you were simply one of the many calling for fire and brimstone scenarios such as perpetual 50+% increases I actually have little against you, I just find it amusing how much you and the doomsayer crowd have become temporarily quiet after being very vocal for the last few weeks. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: mike678 on July 20, 2011, 01:35:20 PM tl;dr (for the young'uns) -- I'm not here to defend predictions I never made. It's not my fault some people trust the lies and name-calling that passes for criticism on this forum. Alright look this has been bothering me for awhile. Please stop double and triple posting. There's an edit button for a reason.Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: fcmatt on July 20, 2011, 02:56:14 PM The real question is -- For those with the means and know-how, is it better to invest in Bitcoin mining, or something else? I mean, NetTecture obviously has some entrepreneurial spirit -- a go-get-em, "I eat obstacles for breakfast" attitude which is necessary for anyone to be successful. He has the energy, and obviously a certain amount of capital, which is also necessary. But THOSE THINGS are why he's fortunate. He could have those things just as much, and apply them toward dozens of other ventures. The question is -- are there any other ventures more worthy than Bitcoin *at this point*. After all, Bitcoins aren't falling from the sky anymore. I think some people might prefer to make $1 from Bitcoin mining rather than $3 through some other means. Simply because Bitcoin mining is -- well, fun! this post made perfect sense and i agree with it. a lot of hating going around for a simple post that made sense, was not derogatory in anyway i can see, and brought in another view point. Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: AngelusWebDesign on July 20, 2011, 04:37:11 PM 5 BTC right now from my wallet to yours if you can find the quote where I said that (and I'm not talking about the white horseman part, either -- just predictions of difficulty reaching 10 million, etc.) I didn't say you called for 10 million, you were simply one of the many calling for fire and brimstone scenarios such as perpetual 50+% increases I actually have little against you, I just find it amusing how much you and the doomsayer crowd have become temporarily quiet after being very vocal for the last few weeks. No, I've never called for perpetual 50% increases. Can you read? Just because I might have said something blasphemous to the Bitcoin "religion", which offends the Bitcoin "believers" once in a while does not make me a doomsayer (whatever that is). Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: OgNasty on July 20, 2011, 04:47:57 PM So...
Has is stabilized or are we going to see 2.5 million sometime in 2011? Title: Re: difficulty stabilizing? Post by: mike678 on July 20, 2011, 05:02:23 PM So... I feel like its going to stabilize until some big event happens. What that event is or when it will happen I have no clue. I feel a significant event that would cause the difficulty to become unstable would be a drastic increase or decrease in the price. If the price goes to something like 30 dollars again we will see a huge difficulty increase. If some major news source writes a front page article (not saying this will happen) that puts bitcoins in good light then expect an increase.Has is stabilized or are we going to see 2.5 million sometime in 2011? |
