Bitcoin Forum

The Commerce Clause in the U.S. Constitution gives Congress the power to regulate all international and interstate commerce. This power has been extended by the Supreme Court to regulating any economic activity, including, for example, growing food for your own consumption.

I believe that the U.S. will perceive or, at least, portray cryptocurrencies as an economic threat and will move to ban all use of cryptocurrencies that it cannot control, whether international or interstate or not, despite the consequences.

With the meteoric rise of cryptocurrencies and the inevitable backlash by legacy financial institutions, I believe this could happen in the next two years, but certainly by 2025.

[Bumped in 2022]

then it goes peer to peer. i don't really see how they're gonna stop that.

in the meantime countries where it's fully legal like japan will thrive and other countries will compare the wreckage that america creates.

since no one can control any cryptocurrency they'll have to ban all of them. and i mean proper ones, not stuff like ripple.

the only truly likely possibility is exchanges being forbidden from dealing with stuff like monero and even that's a long shot.

I doubt that, more likely they are going to regulate the exchanges and this way the exchanges wont be able to list some cryptocurencies.

It is not possible to ban them. If they ban the exchanges, people will start using decentralized exchanges (they are on the rise anyway).

Despite being possibly ineffective and potentially self-destructive, I don't believe that will stop the laws from being passed.

I also believe that some of the people who decide about these laws have already invested in bitcoin, and other possibly have family/friends who invested - so these people will fight agains such laws.

so all of the trading desks, investment funds, exchanges, payment processors, employees of blockchain companies will all have to throw in the towel and go away because that's what such a law would entail.

somehow i'm not feeling it.

I have somehow always believed that ultimately, only a few crypto currencies would be able to survive on a legal basis, where the rest of the redundant garbage coins will be banned entirely in each and every form. Bitcoin however will definitely be able to keep its spot, that I am sure of. If you manage to regulate Bitcoin's ecosystem in such a way, you as government will be able to remain control over probably +90% of this entire ecosystem, which is all based on centralized services. It would be utterly stupid to take any sort of negatively tinted action against Bitcoin -- regulating the market means +90% control, where banning means basically 0% control in the long term. I can't see it become reality.

I wanna believe in your prediction, but I'm afraid, that bitcoin can die in 2-3 years :-[

then you may as well save yourself the time and throw in the towel right now. no point hanging around a doomed project. set yourself free and leave us all to sink with the ship.

Any country can do so prohibit the use of bitcoin. The problem is that people are seeing the good use of bitcoin and other digital currencies. Some countries have already banned the use of digital currencies but have not been blocked yet and have been increasingly used.


#Datarius

As you point out, Congress must establish new authority to regulate cryptocurrency outside of the narrow scope (money transmission, securities, futures markets and taxes) federal agencies have jurisdiction over. Do they really have the mandate (regarding the electorate) to do what you're saying? 5% or more of Americans already own BTC (https://news.bitcoin.com/survey-60-of-americans-have-heard-of-bitcoin-5-own/). By 2025, how large do you think that number will grow?

Do you foresee another Executive Order 6102 coming? I suppose we know how that played out.


Wickard v. Filburn -- the "growing food for your own consumption" case -- established that the Commerce Clause applied where an activity "exerts a substantial economic effect on interstate commerce." What is the parallel argument for Bitcoin?

We should also note that the post-New Deal decisions you're referring to took place in a different judicial context (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commerce_Clause):

It is true that the end of this year a lot of crypto currencies have sprung up without clear rules, and I strongly agree that the American government is more serious in regulating the development of the currency of cryptocurrency.

Up to this point the US is having a good job of detecting lot of illegal transactions that involves crypto currencies in their country in which mostly are involved in money laundering. This means that the US are very active of the regulation campaign so therefore for me there is no need for them to ban Bitcoin as long as the threat to the country is always eliminated and US citizens are enjoying their earnings in Bitcoin investments then the government should more focus on how to eliminate drugs instead of Bitcoin.

I am not either because this isn't one little industry or a niche market. Right now it is but by the time they get to making such a bill the whole crypto industry will be in the trillions and well on its way to a proper asset class. It would be completely asinine for the US government to take this position, because other countries will adopt and prosper because of it. I can't see the US relinquishing that kind of power on the world stage, although because they have made some other asinine decisions in the past, I am not putting it past them. I put it at 1% chance it happens, and 99% chance it doesn't. Never count any possibility out, that is selling yourself short of a comprehensive plan.

I believe the argument would be that because cryptocurrencies can be used without regard for state or national boundaries, then any use would affect interstate and international commerce.

If the government banned only those projects that scam, we would all agree, but the government banned all cryptocurrencies. I think this is unrealistic and it is impossible to do so. This is equivalent to banning blockchain technology. Blockchain technology is one that can help a lot Industry to reduce costs of practical technology.

While it is very likely that the US will try to ban cryptocurrencies, I don't think they will succeed in doing so. That would be like trying to ban the internet. Cryptocurrencies by their nature, being decentralized and borderless make them very hard to control. Banning them will not have the desired effect. Just as the Chinese Bitcoin ban just resulted in more Chinese people dealing in crypto under the table. Governments and regulatory bodies are more likely to get on board this unstoppable train. Those who refuse and oppose will be made obsolete. That's just what happens when new superior technology emerges. Cryptocurrency is one such technology.

They cannot completely ban cryptocurrencies or bitcoins because the survival of cryptocurrencies is not determined by them. It is up to us, the enthusiasts and holders of bitcoins, to determine that the difficulty of transactions and the difficulty of finding them are at the highest, but it is absolutely impossible. Completely prohibited.

Would be interesting to see how they are gonna deal with decentralized exchanges. This is why I think decentralized exchanges are the future.

I will only comment lightly with other predictions from me.
Who is the US president after Trump? Trump's term will end in January 2021. And from now it remains at least 32 months. So what happens if the president after Trump comes from the world of crypto, of course your predictions will be different. And it is not impossible for 32 months enough for someone planning to become a US presidential candidate.

For obvious reasons like in my country Bitcoin and every other crypto has been banned by the govt but the ban is only limited to buying and selling of the cryptos and not on peer to peer trading and if the same happens in US the ban can never control the peer to peer trading, although this might cause the rates of bitcoin or any crypto to fall down massively and the investors might rule out and watch for better investing options.

Right now it is more about a meteoric fall of cryptocurrencies rather than their rise. So they won't probably have to ban any cryptocurrencies at all. And given that bitcoin may in fact be their invention to ruin weak economies like Venezuela's, it makes no particular sense to ban it. Anyway, banning crypto is like banning gravity. Yes, you can ban it but if you don't have the power to actually enforce your ban, you will only make a fool of yourself. And that will inevitably backfire as people will see that you are powerless and can't deliver on your promises.

I am strongly of the opinion that bitcoin is not dying in near future.  Though nothing is permanent here everything is to die .   But Bitcoin will rule the crypto family for several years till some better option is invented. As crypto currency and bitcoin has taken the place of fiat ; may be after some years some  better technique is there then only we may see for what few people are afraid of (death of bitoin).

Since I live in India where recently Crypto currency got banned, banned in the sense it cannot be bought or sold in the market although trading can still be done between peer to peer, but having very little knowledge about the US govt I would say only that the govt is earning enough from the taxes on cryptos does it may not ban cryptos all together but maybe impose some laws and regulations which will give some power to some govt body to regulate and watch over the usage and mining of cryptos.

by 2025 nobody would care anymore what their government says about decentralized cryptocurrencies. they can regulate them or not at all and still that wouldn't make any difference. we made bitcoin so that we no longer need the approval of the governments to use money. and hopefully by 2025 everyone knows this!

That's possible, but taking a hard line on cryptocurrencies can bring unforeseen consequences, such as discouraging capital and investments in the country. While the U.S. may be tempted to take a hard line, the blowback will be such that there will be a quick reversal, in my view.

Bitcoin won't be dead in 2-3 years or anytime after that. What I do believe is that the dominance of Bitcoin will wattle down a lot and other cryptos may catch up with it. But you are entitled to your opinion and what you want to hold on to. I guess believing that the death of bitcoin will be soon, you already are saving for the raining days to cash out.

I too think that they might just regulate the exchanges although if they allow or ban only a certain kind of crypto currency then it might indeed increase the rate of the crypto in the black market which might surface after bans and regulations on crypto, we all know that drugs are illegal yet they are present in the back market same ways if crypto is banned it might be erased from the surface economy but deep inside a black market might surface.

the real question is whether they would also do it to bitcoin or not. if they don't then nobody would care about it at all. because bitcoin is the important one and all around the world it is being adopted and i don't think US is going to take a different approach. then people who want to trade altcoins will do it on decentralized exchanges and by using technologies like Atomic Swaps and the government can not do anything about it.

I don’t know much about US but as I said they didn’t stop the laws from being passed in at least my country (I am from India). Well to be honest i don’t think even in US or any other country the fact can stop the laws from being passed, but if every other country bans or starts regulating the usage of bitcoin or any other crypto then the most profited one will be those countries that have legally allowed the usage of cryptos such as Japan.

Oh, oh, oh! How much time you've spent building a time machine? Are you traveling back in time from 2025 sending us a warning?

Nice try creating FUD mate. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are here to stay no matter what. They are not going anywhere. Yes, we knew that US are imposing strict laws in cryptocurrency nowadays. However, they can only regulate it and not means of putting them out entirely because it's decentralized. They can't stop it.

I made a simple prediction and it is not FUD. You are free to disagree and state your own prediction.

Whether or not the ban is 100% successful is not part of my prediction. Just as the illegal drug economy has continued despite its ban, the use of non-regulated currencies could also survive, though I believe the ban in the U.S. will be devastating.

This means that the right people, where the rest of the excess rubbish coins are banned in all forms, are all based on centralized services.

I am also very afraid that your predictions may come true. Now the cryptocurrency market is still the place to make a profit for big whales. If the whale abandoned the crypto market, Bitcoin would surely die

I made this prediction 4 years ago. Is it still a valid prediction?

The recent failure of Terra's UST and LUNA, as well as the fall in price of Bitcoin, have emboldened the anti-coiners and their FUD has gained some traction. Every misstep by some random shitcoin is now presented as evidence of Bitcoin's imminent demise.

In the natural evolution of things, governments will eventually regulate cryptocurrency in all of its aspects and I am starting to see that even in my own country which is known to be always late in many things. In the big market of USA, the federal government will soon be exerting many effort's to gain something out of the expanding market via tax and will eventually establish the parameters of doing business and I am expecting that all can be under this scenario otherwise there would be some problems that must be ironed out. It would surely be interesting how things can be working out here...but definitely this a thousand times better compared to the China ban.

They might even throw Do Kwon in jail for defrauding investors: https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/20/terra-creator-do-kwon-faces-prosecutions-in-south-korea/

I don't know if criminal liability lies on Kwon, but they're using him as a scapegoat and will probably look to regulate crypto under the guise of investor safety as if any UST/Luna user was not aware (or at least they should've been aware) of the risks. U.S. is looking to regulate crypto currencies because they can't let any tax revenue go wasted and I don't have any faith that they'd be able to string together coherent regulations that aren't economic authoritarianism.

I don't see that as very likely. The only currency that poses a threat to the established power in the US is bitcoin, not the others. If they ban criptocurrencies they will stop collecting a lot of money from capital gains, as well as money from cryptocurrency-related companies operating in the US. And as for bitcoin, if they haven't done it by now, I don't think they are going to do it now.

Stricter regulations will certainly be implemented, that's for sure.

It is very hard to say because there is a lot of very complicated things that are happening in the world. Mainly I would look at the prediction by many economy experts talking about downfall of US dollar as the power is shifting from US to elsewhere and they are all abandoning dollar, not to mention that it seems like the days of petrodollar is coming to an end.

In a situation where US dollar is being threatened from all sides, it is impossible to predict what the legislators are going to do to try and salvage it. We all know that they love the "blame game" and what is better than bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as an escape goat.

In any case, this thread was created back in 2018, that is, four years ago. Periodically, such topics are discussed and they are really relevant to this day. The regulation of the circulation of cryptocurrencies by the states is inevitable and it will continue for a long time. But it is unlikely that we need to be afraid of a complete ban on cryptocurrencies. So far, we see dissatisfaction with a cryptocurrency that uses the PoW algorithm, but no more. At the same time, over the past four years, cryptocurrency, on the contrary, has strengthened its positions more strongly and states are already forced to take into account the influence of their holders.