Bitcoin Forum

That's why I'm working only on NEWS (fundamental analysis).

Let's take  10k people, which are believing in bitcoin in two ways: 1. Believing in UP (50%) 2. Believing in  DUMP (50%)
We will divide their assumption in 12 months..
1. January. 50% of it were right (next months the result will be repeat). 5k people were right.
2. February. 2.5k people were right.
3. March. 1250 people were right  (third consecutive month)
4. April. 625 people could repeated  4th time.
5. May. 312 people could repeated 5th time prediction.
6. June. 206 people- are ATLANTS of Prediction.
7. July.103 people-are elite of  trading.
8. August. 51 people are  DEMIGODS. Using intuition, mathematic analysis and magic dances.
9. September. 25 people... Who are these genuises?
10. October. It's unbelievable!  12 people making faithful prediction  for 10 consecutive month.
11. November. 6 people. Fire! We founded traders, which are never doing mistakes.
12. December.  Gods of trading  are  here!! Let's give them Billion of dollars.

But, the truth is in another place. These gods are deceived by randomness.0.00244% of people statistically accidentally turn out to be right 12 months in a row. And if you take this figure for 100 million people, then such handsome men will be already over 24,000 people. Usually we call some of them cool analysts, traders. But in fact they were lucky 🙂

Buffett knows this, and therefore argues with confidence with active traders. But he doing  this of 10 years. All  traders are already merging statistically, as time kills randomness.

Do you want to be rich like Buffett? Do not jerk in the market

Warren Buffet doesn't really do tech analysis.

My friend is really into Buffet and he says that buffet's main rule is: Don't buy something you don't believe in or understand.

And that's the gist.

In buffet's book, he just diversifies his investments and only buys into stocks/investments that he understands and believes in.

I believe if we all followed that path with crypto, we probably would find our 100x.

That said, Confido was something people could've detected if they used this rule. Confido had broken links and no working examples. But the website had promises and good development.

Most people in crypto just jumped in because they trade on headlines instead of on fundamentals.

What you are saying is not entirely true. To start I would like to say that fundamental analysis will always overcome technical analysis. This is true on all markets, but even more important on crytpo, because in these markets even fake news or fud, have a huge impact on how the market goes.

Even though this is true, it is also true that technical analysis works, but it's not a way to predict things. Traders just search for common patterns, and choose a direction based on that. Certain patterns usually take the market in a certain direction. It could fail, but usually have a percentage higher that 50% of going right. This way you have better % than a biased coin flip. What they also do, is to minimize their losses with a stop loss, if the market didn't went in their direction (this is where most "traders" fail, because they can't accept a stop loss).

By doing this they have a "dual choice bet" (the price either going up or down), with a % higher than 50%, and since they also limit their losses, that means that they will have profit in the long run. They don't want to be right every time, that is not possible, and is not their goal. They just want to be right more than 50% of the times, and cut their losses every time they are wrong. This is how profit is done.

I'm still doing paper trade, for a few months now, but I'm winning consistently, and it's all based on technical analysis. We will continue like this for a few more months, and then I might try it for real.

Buffet doesn't do technical analysis of stocks, he does value analysis of companies. That's not the same thing. People who do technical analysis focus on nothing about the company and everything about the stock movements and trading patterns, almost in complete regard for the underlying company. Buffet is a pure capitalist. He analyzes companies looking for what is undervalued and he can make more valuable by buying and bringing efficiencies or capital to. Buffet's story is much more about the efficient utilization of capital, what can he do with his money that will earn the most return? That approach necessitates knowing what you buy, which is why he stays away from technologies and industries he doesn't understand.

In short speaking Buffet wont really reach out the position he was into these days if he didnt able to analyze each companies he do invest on. Technical analysis is really just a tool but not totally reliable when fundamentals arent met.It wont really be effective if you dont have basis according into your plausible actions that you will make.For those numbers or chances posted above on OP, i dont believe that traders can really be clasiffied into those numbers or chances.

I don't think pure fundamental or technical analysis will work on cryptocurrency investment
we should just go with hunch and react to mass perception
most crypto projects are build on trust only without any real institution regulating or enforcing rules of conduct
it's easier for people in crypto to do things that cannot be done in stock investment world
FUD, fake news and insider trading can easily be done in crypto world
can't really easily differentiate news, rumour and etc, hence fundamental analysis won't work just like that

I'm sorry but your statement seems to be incongruent. I think this is the key statement in your post that doesn't make much sense:


So you want to go on a hunch, that's fine, but there is a problem here. If the hunch is just random, and not based on any data (either from technical or fundamental analysis), then there is no way that you can try to win in the long run. If everyone does this, then they are all random guessing and all profit you could get would be based on luck, since your hunch is random.

Then you say that based on the hunch you are reacting to mass perception. This is now different. If you are claiming there is mass perception, then it means that everyone must be collecting data from some source of information (otherwise you wouldn't get mass perception). So if there is mass  perception, people are not acting randomly, if they are not acting randomly they are acting based on either news (fundamental analysis), or the changes in the price (technical analysis). So as you see, you do believe in both types of analysis, since you state there is some kind of mass perception influencing the direction the market goes. The only problem is that you didn't really realized that you were trying to do this, so you think you are just following a hunch.

If you start exploring both types of analysis, you will see that your "hunch" can be much more accurate, because it's not really a random hunch, which means it can be perfected.

Traders do depend on mass perception, and that's the only reason why trading works. Some people follow news and this way you are getting mass perception based on fundamental analysis, others follow price movements and patterns, and this way you are getting mass perception through technical analysis. Some combine both things for more accurate results. I do believe that Fundamental analysis will always prevail over technical analysis, but both exist and influence the markets.

All Warren Buffett's knowledge and skills relate only to the use of Fiat. He has great political connections and resources. He can have information before others and it helps him to earn millions. With cryptocurrencies, everything is much more complicated. Therefore, his opinion and various technical analyses have no prospects. It doesn't mean anything to me.

Why do you say that everything is more complicated with cryptocurrencies? I can kind of agree with that in the sense that it's often more difficult to predict value of specific crypto over the long term, compared to predicting the value of a stock for example. But we also see much of the same practices in both crypto and traditional trading.

Crypto is definitely way more accessible than the stock market for example and I doubt that the trading itself is more complicated.

I don't really care whatever the mass perception based on, each could use either fundamental or technical
I just need to see what the majority of the people will do, then react to it based on my hunch...
so I'm choosing my course of action using intuition either to follow them or against them

I never said I don't believe them,
"I don't think pure fundamental or technical analysis will work on cryptocurrency investment"
what I meant by that is mixing both technique then pour mass perception in the bowl and use your hunch to serve ::)
so I guess I worded my sentence incorrectly :-[

His political connections are his biggest asset. When the 2008 crash happened, the US govt asked him to invest in several banks to stabalise them - he got in at rock bottom prices, with the US govt guaranteeing that the banks would not go bust. Your average investor doesn't get offered opportunities like that.

His assets and track record are his biggest asset. He's known as an honest person and someone for whom integrity matters. (Tangentially, it's why his continued support for Wells Fargo is such a big deal, because his continued investment in Wells Fargo after their repeated scandals and lies is a very big departure from his reputation, but I digress...) Buffet doesn't really have political connections in as much as the government was desperate to find people to inject money into financial institutions and Buffet had the money to do so, was known to be an honest guy, and was not unfamiliar with banking deals, as I believe he was involved with some major bank deals around the 1980s. But he got to the point where the government thought of him because of his biggest assets, not because he was calling in favors due to his political connections.