Bitcoin Forum

When Gox will solve their withdrawal problems the insiders will start selling, then Gox will sell quite a chunk of their holding (price will fall quite much) and release the news about solving their withdrawal process. Then the crash is inevitable (not flash crash and flash rise like the SR one).

Maybe we will see a small rally before so insiders and Gox will get even more profit.

Anyone with Bitcoins can withdrawal Bitcoins and sell on another exchange.  It's the people who are stuck with cash on Gox that are the ones waiting to get out.  If anything, they move cash to a cheaper exchange, and buy there.

No one has coins stuck at Gox.

yes, it will crash all the way down to Bitstamps level  ::)

Exchange is not so much about reality than it is about human psychology. Doesn't matter how much people really need withdrawals. And withdrawal problems solved news on falling price is the trigger. Think about that.

A price drop can happen soon, but IMO it won't have anything to do with Gox fully resuming withdrawals (which may take months from now).

Well, its just temporary crash. After awhile they should be back to the price of Bitcoin..

Actually, it might crash a little further.
When they solve the withdrawal issue, we'll all be used to see that 10-USD-difference between Gox an Bitstamp as "given".
So, once Gox' price goes down, so will Bitstamp's.
That could lead into a nice little flash-crash.
But yeah, eventually it will level out and be done with it.

Yes, there are people who will speculate and will try to sell and buy more, so it probably would go down a little further, but level out soon enough.
I just wanted to say that I think the word "crash" is an exaggeration for this, if you remember Bitcoins past.

wat.

Prices on Bitstamp are correct since they have no problems neither with deposits nor with withdraws on either currency.

Saying that they are artificially low just because mt.gox's one are artificially high doesn't make sense.

This seems correct to me.  If Gox announced that withdrawals will resume unimpeded tomorrow, there would be a rush to sell on Gox, in an attempt to get a [now] inflated price for each bitcoin.  At the same time, there would be a rush to buy on Stamp, in order to quickly turn around and sell on Gox at the inflated price.  I imagine Gox would fall more, and Stamp would go up just a little in the process.  If Gox were trading at $140 and Stamp at $130 before the news, they might both settle at, say, $134 immediately after the news.  

Considering this would be good news for bitcoin, and assuming no other breaking news, I'd expect the price of bitcoin would continue to crawl up for the few days following such news.  At least, that seems logical to me..

It sort of does make sense, if you think about it.

Think about it. Say you sold on Gox. You sell on Gox (now the price is "fair", because all markets are working so far) and try to withdraw. Only, you can't. So what do you do? You buy from Gox (making the price artifically high) move it to Bitstamp, and sell there (making the price there artificially low).

This is the wrong part.
You "are selling", hence "the price goes down".
It's not artificial, it's the normal result of someone selling.

You think "mt.gox price is high, hence this high must be balanced somewhere, so bitstamp is low".
Partly right.
Yes it must be balanced somewere.
No it's not on bitstamp.

BTC price on mt.gox is higher.
Balanced by USD price on mt.gox, which is lower.

Other prices are correct (per definition!) unless they have other reasons to be artificial themselves (such as difficulties on deposits, withdrawals, high fees, risky, etc.).

What makes you think mtgox withdraws gonna resume?

*sigh*

Look: You agree that arbitrage makes the prices between to prices "fair" by raising the price of the lower-priced exchange and lowering the price of the higher-priced exchange, right? What I just described might be called "inverse arbitrage": A seller is forced to buy on the higher-priced exchange and sell on the lower priced exchange, making prices "unfair" by raising the price of the higher-priced exchange and lowering the price of the lower-priced exchange. That should be pretty obvious. Hence bitstamp is "artificially low" and gox is "artificially high." By "artificial" I mean not due to normal market conditions, but due to being unable to withdraw fiat from gox.

Another way of thinking about this would be to remove the "artificial" factor, and see what happens then, right? Well, a huge arbitrage opportunity would emerge. Which would reward what? Buying on Bitstamp (raising the price there, making it "fair") and selling on Gox (lowering the price there, making it "fair" as well, because at this point everything is "fair" because there isn't any artificial force exerted on the market).

Price on Stamp is currently "correct".  If USD withdrawals on Gox resumed, the price on Stamp would go up I believe, based on the logic from my previous post (above).  The price on Stamp is therefore suppressed, at least to some degree, by the situation on Gox.  

SheHadMANHands: Rubbish, there is no correct price.

This is what is going on: There is arbitrage, the price difference is only momentarily more than about 14 USD higher on gox (that should be expressed in percent, but I could not be bothered to do that myself). The reason is that the depth is higher on gox, so it is possible to do larger trades, and gox was the best exchange historically. The ask depth is higher than the bid depth, the reason is that the gox customers predict a price hike and therefore wants to be in bitcoin, not in USD. They have parked their bitcoins on relatively high asks, just to be able to take advantage of a sudden upwards price spike. The customers believe they will get their funds out eventually, that is also what I think. Some have fiat channels out (remember gox change automatically between fiats), they are now arbitraging, the rest can get out via bitcoins.

As bitstamp rises.

Please crash, I would love to buy some cheap Bitcoin. :)

I believe most people are panic at that time :P

Oh the irony. I had money in transit with my exchange for about a week, but was held for verification as the SR seizure went on. Literally saw BTC at $80 wanting to buy in but the exchange didn't bother doing a verification call till a few days after that ordeal. I'm still pretty disappointed in them over that. Now I have plenty of fiat, waiting for the next flash crash.. Damn.

Disagree, there's a lot of market depth at Bitstamp, if people were willing to get out at 120 - 129 they'd do so on bitstamp now. We'll halt once we hit Bitstamps price, but I have a feeling Bittsamp will rise to match Gox.

The price on btcchina.com is currently 828rmb which Google believes is equivalent to $135.

Since they have the largest volume in the last 24 hours it seems reasonable to conclude that that is the correct current price.
The other 12 exchanges in china also broadly agree on this price - the total 24 hour total volume in rmb is more than usd

http://btckan.com/price

All the important activity is currently happening in China - ignore it at your peril.

The volume comparison with btcchina is not exactly apples to apples.  Btcchina is apparently charging 0% trade fees currently, so we'd expect that to inflate their trade volume at least to some degree (of course, there's still the spread).  Perhaps more important to note is that trade volume on btcchina has continued to increase and it's now a big player in the market.

Also interesting to note is the "wall":
https://i.imgur.com/JIpysRD.png

Currently MtGox is controlled by few groups of people. They probably have two wallets to follow up. The first is for withdrawal. The second one is to modifying the selling chart. These people not too worry about the withdrawal as they have plenty dollars to follow up.

There is withdrawal, which is slowly made. I try not use the mtgox at the early stage. I stay with the closet to me before switch to.
 

i doubt mtgox problems with withdrawals will be solved ever because banks are just starting to make problems to bitcoiners. As long as they don't switch to bitcoins themselves they are going to try to hurt bitcoin economy as much as they can. Which means sooner mtgox would have to make bank for themselves than banks will start cooperating.

The great wall of BTC-China.

Something really bad is gonna happen to MtGox soon. They are going to loose all their customers. And a heck load of money.

This post isn't really helpful, however.

When they go, I hope all the customer records disappear also.